Re: [geo] climate emulator workshop

2023-02-25 Thread 'Tamas Bodai' via geoengineering 
Thank you Stephen for pointing this out with good humour. The deadline is meant to be 10 March. Best wishes, Tamás Sent from my iPhoneOn 25 Feb 2023, at 17:50, Stephen Salter  wrote:







Hi all

The closing date for abstracts of  10 February will need reliable time travel. This would also be  would be extremely useful for any
 zero  carbon policy.
Stephen
 
 
 


From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com 
On Behalf Of Andrew Lockley
Sent: 25 February 2023 15:21
To: geoengineering 
Subject: [geo] climate emulator workshop


 

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Workshop on the “Development and application of climate
 emulators”


 
Time: 20-22 April 2023, 1pm Thursday to 1pm
 Saturday
Venue: Talent
 Garden, Liechtensteinstrasse 111-115, 1090 Vienna, Austria
Tel.: +43 (0)1 2058183,
 Web: https://talentgarden.org/en/
 
Climate emulators hold the key to efficient and comprehensive impact assessment, scenario analysis and the design of climate
 policy. Despite their efficiency, they are possibly rather accurate emulators of state-of-the-art “Earth system models”, running at lightning speed on laptop computers, or, facilitating the generation of very large ensembles of simulations on supercomputers.
 Accuracy can be hampered – regionally at least – by bifurcations and other nonlinearities of the system. Coupling emulators with “Integrated impact assessment” models (IAM) or conceptual models of “tipping elements” of the climate system would facilitate impact
 and risk analysis in terms of economic development, the health of ecological systems, or worse. Due to their computational efficiency, they are well suited also to solve “inverse problems”, such as those for emission abatement or geo-manipulation required
 given (limited) commitments or technological abilities concerning one or the other. There are a number of approaches to emulator development; some require a specific experimental design and new climate model simulations, some aim at using existing, archived,
 e.g.. CMIP-X, simulation data. 
 
We are seeking contributions to the workshop on the topics including but not exclusive of:
·  Practical and theoretical advances in response theory;
·  Development of climate emulators using response theory, AI, conceptual models (fitting), etc.;
·  Performance assessment of emulators;
·  Development and application of IAMs, ecological models;
·  Game theoretical approaches to “optimizing”/predicting climate policy;
·  Tipping point analysis via complex and conceptual models;
·  Developments in the light of the Paris2015 targets. 
 
The workshop is aimed at mapping the landscape of the state-of-the-art and current research trends in impact
 assessment and climate policy development; a review of the Paris2015 targets and developments since; and a lively and constructive debate on key and sensitive questions like modelling uncertainty, research into and practice of geo-manipulation, a.k.a. geoengineering
 or climate intervention, communicating risk and public outreach, consultation. We foresee high quality contributions from experts of their fields of research, crosspollination of ideas whether it is about approaches or synergic effects thanks to interdisciplinary
 collaborations. The workshop will showcase the climate emulator and underlying data sets being the outcomes of the Young Scientist Fellowship project “The FORced RESponse of the climate system: Towards efficient impact assessment”, FORRES. We will seek
 feedback from the participants on the potentials and room for improvement of these outcomes, while they are being offered for use by any interested party. 
 
Confirmed speakers are:
 
·  Michael Ghil, ENS, Paris
·  Marcin Czupryna, Cracow University of Economics
·  Nick Watkins, Univ. Warwick
·  Chris Smith, IIASA, Vienna / Univ. Leeds / Met Office, Exeter
·  Nico Wunderling, PIK, Potsdam
·  David Stainforth, LSE, London
·  Gábor Drótos, Atomki, Debrecen
·  Valerio Lucarini, Univ. Reading 
·  Jonathan F Donges, PIK, Potsdam
·  Robbin Bastiaansen, Univ. Utrecht
·  Ben Sanderson, CICERO, Oslo
·  Guilherme Mendonca, MPI-M, Hamburg
·  Francesco Ragone, UCLouvian, Brussels 
·  Leeya Pressburger, PNNL, Seattle
 
Abstracts (interest of attendance) are (is) to be submitted (indicted)
 to Tamás Bódai (bo...@pusan.ac.kr) by
 10 Feb. Late submissions are potentially considered pending on the saturation of the venue capacity.
 
We look forward to welcoming you at Talent Garden,
 Vienna, Austria, and sharing knowledge and fun during our event.
 
The organizers:
 
Tamás Bódai,
 ICCP, Busan; MATE, Budapest; https://ibsclimate.org/people/tamas-bodai/
Valerio Lembo, CNR, Rome; https://www.isac.cnr.it/it/users/valerio-lembo
Sundaresan Aneesh, ICCP, Busan; https://ibsclimate.org/people/aneesh-su

RE: [geo] climate emulator workshop

2023-02-25 Thread Stephen Salter 
Hi all
The closing date for abstracts of  10 February will need reliable time travel. 
This would also be  would be extremely useful for any zero  carbon policy.
Stephen



From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com  On 
Behalf Of Andrew Lockley
Sent: 25 February 2023 15:21
To: geoengineering 
Subject: [geo] climate emulator workshop

This email was sent to you by someone outside the University.
You should only click on links or attachments if you are certain that the email 
is genuine and the content is safe.

Workshop on the “Development and application of climate emulators”

Time: 20-22 April 2023, 1pm Thursday to 1pm Saturday
Venue: Talent Garden, Liechtensteinstrasse 111-115, 1090 Vienna, Austria
Tel.: +43 (0)1 2058183, Web: https://talentgarden.org/en/

Climate emulators hold the key to efficient and comprehensive impact 
assessment, scenario analysis and the design of climate policy. Despite their 
efficiency, they are possibly rather accurate emulators of state-of-the-art 
“Earth system models”, running at lightning speed on laptop computers, or, 
facilitating the generation of very large ensembles of simulations on 
supercomputers. Accuracy can be hampered – regionally at least – by 
bifurcations and other nonlinearities of the system. Coupling emulators with 
“Integrated impact assessment” models (IAM) or conceptual models of “tipping 
elements” of the climate system would facilitate impact and risk analysis in 
terms of economic development, the health of ecological systems, or worse. Due 
to their computational efficiency, they are well suited also to solve “inverse 
problems”, such as those for emission abatement or geo-manipulation required 
given (limited) commitments or technological abilities concerning one or the 
other. There are a number of approaches to emulator development; some require a 
specific experimental design and new climate model simulations, some aim at 
using existing, archived, e.g.. CMIP-X, simulation data.

We are seeking contributions to the workshop on the topics including but not 
exclusive of:

•  Practical and theoretical advances in response theory;

•  Development of climate emulators using response theory, AI, conceptual 
models (fitting), etc.;

•  Performance assessment of emulators;

•  Development and application of IAMs, ecological models;

•  Game theoretical approaches to “optimizing”/predicting climate policy;

•  Tipping point analysis via complex and conceptual models;

•  Developments in the light of the Paris2015 targets.

The workshop is aimed at mapping the landscape of the state-of-the-art and 
current research trends in impact assessment and climate policy development; a 
review of the Paris2015 targets and developments since; and a lively and 
constructive debate on key and sensitive questions like modelling uncertainty, 
research into and practice of geo-manipulation, a.k.a. geoengineering or 
climate intervention, communicating risk and public outreach, consultation. We 
foresee high quality contributions from experts of their fields of research, 
crosspollination of ideas whether it is about approaches or synergic effects 
thanks to interdisciplinary collaborations. The workshop will showcase the 
climate emulator and underlying data sets being the outcomes of the Young 
Scientist Fellowship project “The FORced RESponse of the climate system: 
Towards efficient impact assessment”, FORRES. We will seek feedback from the 
participants on the potentials and room for improvement of these outcomes, 
while they are being offered for use by any interested party.

Confirmed speakers are:


•  Michael Ghil, ENS, Paris

•  Marcin Czupryna, Cracow University of Economics

•  Nick Watkins, Univ. Warwick

•  Chris Smith, IIASA, Vienna / Univ. Leeds / Met Office, Exeter

•  Nico Wunderling, PIK, Potsdam

•  David Stainforth, LSE, London

•  Gábor Drótos, Atomki, Debrecen

•  Valerio Lucarini, Univ. Reading

•  Jonathan F Donges, PIK, Potsdam

•  Robbin Bastiaansen, Univ. Utrecht

•  Ben Sanderson, CICERO, Oslo

•  Guilherme Mendonca, MPI-M, Hamburg

•  Francesco Ragone, UCLouvian, Brussels

•  Leeya Pressburger, PNNL, Seattle

Abstracts (interest of attendance) are (is) to be submitted (indicted) to Tamás 
Bódai (bo...@pusan.ac.kr) by 10 Feb. Late submissions 
are potentially considered pending on the saturation of the venue capacity.

We look forward to welcoming you at Talent Garden, Vienna, Austria, and sharing 
knowledge and fun during our event.

The organizers:

Tamás Bódai, ICCP, Busan; MATE, Budapest; 
https://ibsclimate.org/people/tamas-bodai/
Valerio Lembo, CNR, Rome; https://www.isac.cnr.it/it/users/valerio-lembo
Sundaresan Aneesh, ICCP, Busan; https://ibsclimate.org/people/aneesh-sundaresan/

Note: The workshop receives funding form IBS, Korea, 
https://www.ibs.re.kr/eng.do
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[geo] climate emulator workshop

2023-02-25 Thread Andrew Lockley 
*Workshop on the “**Development and application of climate emulator**s”*



*Time**: 20-22 April 2023, 1pm Thursday to 1pm Saturday*

*Venue**: **Talent Garden**,** Liechtensteinstrasse 111-115**,** 1090 *
*Vienna,** Austria*

*Tel.: **+43 (0)1 2058183**, Web: https://talentgarden.org/en/
*



Climate emulators hold the key to efficient and comprehensive impact
assessment, scenario analysis and the design of climate policy. Despite
their efficiency, they are possibly rather accurate emulators of
state-of-the-art “Earth system models”, running at lightning speed on
laptop computers, or, facilitating the generation of very large ensembles
of simulations on supercomputers. Accuracy can be hampered – regionally at
least – by bifurcations and other nonlinearities of the system. Coupling
emulators with “Integrated impact assessment” models (IAM) or conceptual
models of “tipping elements” of the climate system would facilitate impact
and risk analysis in terms of economic development, the health of
ecological systems, or worse. Due to their computational efficiency, they
are well suited also to solve “inverse problems”, such as those for
emission abatement or geo-manipulation required given (limited) commitments
or technological abilities concerning one or the other. There are a number
of approaches to emulator development; some require a specific experimental
design and new climate model simulations, some aim at using existing,
archived, e.g.. CMIP-X, simulation data.



We are seeking contributions to the workshop on the *topics* including but
not exclusive of:

·  Practical and theoretical advances in response theory;

·  Development of climate emulators using response theory, AI,
conceptual models (fitting), etc.;

·  Performance assessment of emulators;

·  Development and application of IAMs, ecological models;

·  Game theoretical approaches to “optimizing”/predicting climate
policy;

·  Tipping point analysis via complex and conceptual models;

·  Developments in the light of the Paris2015 targets.



The *workshop* is *aim*ed at mapping the landscape of the state-of-the-art
and current research trends in impact assessment and climate policy
development; a review of the Paris2015 targets and developments since; and
a lively and constructive debate on key and sensitive questions like
modelling uncertainty, research into and practice of geo-manipulation,
a.k.a. geoengineering or climate intervention, communicating risk and
public outreach, consultation. We foresee high quality contributions from
experts of their fields of research, crosspollination of ideas whether it
is about approaches or synergic effects thanks to interdisciplinary
collaborations. The workshop will showcase the climate emulator and
underlying data sets being the outcomes of the Young Scientist Fellowship
project “*The FORced RESponse of the climate system: Towards efficient
impact assessment*”, FORRES. We will seek feedback from the participants on
the potentials and room for improvement of these outcomes, while they are
being offered for use by any interested party.



Confirmed *speakers* are:



·  Michael Ghil, ENS, Paris

·  Marcin Czupryna, Cracow University of Economics

·  Nick Watkins, Univ. Warwick

·  Chris Smith, IIASA, Vienna / Univ. Leeds / Met Office, Exeter

·  Nico Wunderling, PIK, Potsdam

·  David Stainforth, LSE, London

·  Gábor Drótos, Atomki, Debrecen

·  Valerio Lucarini, Univ. Reading

·  Jonathan F Donges, PIK, Potsdam

·  Robbin Bastiaansen, Univ. Utrecht

·  Ben Sanderson, CICERO, Oslo

·  Guilherme Mendonca, MPI-M, Hamburg

·  Francesco Ragone, UCLouvian, Brussels

·  Leeya Pressburger, PNNL, Seattle



*Abstracts* (interest of attendance) are (is) to be *submitted* (indicted)
to Tamás Bódai (bo...@pusan.ac.kr) *by 10 Feb*. Late submissions are
potentially considered pending on the saturation of the venue capacity.



We look forward to welcoming you at *Talent Garden**, Vienna*, Austria, and
sharing knowledge and fun during our event.



The organizers:



Tamás Bódai, ICCP, Busan; MATE, Budapest;
https://ibsclimate.org/people/tamas-bodai/

Valerio Lembo, CNR, Rome; https://www.isac.cnr.it/it/users/valerio-lembo

Sundaresan Aneesh, ICCP, Busan;
https://ibsclimate.org/people/aneesh-sundaresan/



Note: The workshop receives funding form IBS, Korea,
https://www.ibs.re.kr/eng.do

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[geo] Climate Intervention Analysis using AI Model Guided by Statistical Physics Principles

2023-02-25 Thread Geoengineering News 
https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.03258

*Authors*
Soo Kyung Kim
, Kalai
Ramea , Salva
Rühling Cachay
, Haruki
Hirasawa 
, Subhashis Hazarika
, Dipti
Hingmire 
, Peetak Mitra
, Philip J.
Rasch , Hansi
A. Singh 
*7 February 2023 *
*Abstract*

The availability of training data remains a significant obstacle for the
implementation of machine learning in scientific applications. In
particular, estimating how a system might respond to external forcings or
perturbations requires specialized labeled data or targeted simulations,
which may be computationally intensive to generate at scale. In this study,
we propose a novel solution to this challenge by utilizing a principle from
statistical physics known as the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem (FDT) to
discover knowledge using an AI model that can rapidly produce scenarios for
different external forcings. By leveraging FDT, we are able to extract
information encoded in a large dataset produced by Earth System Models,
which includes 8250 years of internal climate fluctuations, to estimate the
climate system's response to forcings. Our model, AiBEDO, is capable of
capturing the complex, multi-timescale effects of radiation perturbations
on global and regional surface climate, allowing for a substantial
acceleration of the exploration of the impacts of spatially-heterogenous
climate forcers. *To demonstrate the utility of AiBEDO, we use the example
of a climate intervention technique called Marine Cloud Brightening, with
the ultimate goal of optimizing the spatial pattern of cloud brightening to
achieve regional climate targets and prevent known climate tipping points*.
While we showcase the effectiveness of our approach in the context of
climate science, it is generally applicable to other scientific disciplines
that are limited by the extensive computational demands of domain
simulation models. Source code of AiBEDO framework is made available at this
https URL . A sample dataset is made
available at this https URL .
Additional data available upon request.

Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG)
Cite as: arXiv:2302.03258  [cs.LG]
  (or arXiv:2302.03258v1  [cs.LG] for
this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2302.03258

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