GOA  [From OUTLOOK www.outlookindia.com ]
A Beachhead, but the Hinterland is Another Battle
The victory in Goa is a shot in the arm for the BJP but to replicate it 
elsewhere may not be easy

BHAVDEEP KANG

"Who are these people accusing us? India was secular even when the Muslims 
hadn't come here and the Christians hadn't set foot on this soil."
—Atal Behari Vajpayee in Goa, April 12

Given its small size and a fractured electoral verdict, the BJP's rejoicing 
over forming a government in Goa may seem a trifle out of proportion. But 
the party is looking at Goa as a big neon sign pointing the way to victory 
in the Gujarat assembly poll later this year, followed by a slew of state 
elections next year.

That the Centre took Goa seriously was clear from the fact that Union 
minister Pramod Mahajan took personal charge, running a highly scientific 
operation. Each constituency was profiled in detail and while the cash 
spent wasn't much by Delhi standards, a lot of human effort went into 
micro-level strategising.

The Sangh parivar tends to believe the election saw a polarisation of votes 
as a result of a strident, Gujarat-oriented Congress campaign. Says BJP MP 
Vinay Katiyar, "The PM's speech during the party's national executive in 
Goa in April had a big impact." By repeatedly screening video footage of 
the PM's speech, the Opposition scared off minorities but united Hindus.

One of the party's election managers admits the Congress campaign cost the 
BJP the 32 per cent minority vote. "Or else, we would have got 23 seats 
instead of 17," he says. The polarisation wasn't surprising given the 
parivar's growing strength in Goa, says a senior RSS pracharak. The number 
of shakhas has gone up from 65 to 90 in 10 years. The ABVP has a hold over 
41 academic institutions and the RSS runs 15 of its own. Some 16 
parivar-affiliated organisations, particularly the VHP and Vishwa Bharati, 
are active there.

"Of course there is a Hindu backlash," declares the VHP's Acharya Giriraj 
Kishore. "The Congress' pseudo-secularism had its impact. No political 
party should ignore Hindus." BJP leaders aren't certain yet if the Goa 
pattern will apply elsewhere but agree the party's gained ground after 
signalling a return to Hindutva basics.

Party president Jana Krishnamurthy feels the tide may have turned. "You'll 
see by the assembly polls next year, the party set-up will be in good 
shape." But he disagrees that the minorities have rejected the BJP in Goa. 
"That's what the Congress would like to say. They ran their campaign along 
communal lines but are still called a secular party."

If nothing else, the Goa success has improved the morale of party workers 
by breaking what seemed like an endless losing streak. Party sources say 
the BJP would exploit Parrikar's impeccable image by asking him to tour 
several states and address workers there.

The BJP expects an easy win in Gujarat, both because the Congress is weak 
and because of polarisation. But it is feared the BJP might be losing this 
edge and pressure is building up for early elections, fuelling speculation 
that the assembly may be dissolved sooner than later.   

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