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Remembering Aquino Braganca (b. 6 April 1924), who fought for freedom
of the former Portuguese colonies in Africa. An online tribute
http://aquinobraganca.wordpress.com/ (includes many historical
references, some photographs and documents)
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Psephology and the election connection
Of geniuses and left leaders gone berserk with strange
alignments
By Mario Cabral e Sa
mariocabra...@yahoo.co.in
Welcome to Goa Shri. M. K. Sharma, whoever you are. Welcome
to the land of Abbé Faria the discoverer of scientific
hypnotism. Stay here for a while at any of the luxury hotels
in Cavelossim as a guest of your protégé Churchill Alemao.
He has the clout to get you a complimentary VVIP suite with
all the goodies thrown in. And maybe you will get the hang of
what hypnotism is about. It is a science, not just a cheap
trick which you tried to play and failed the other day at
Churchill-bab's 4000-strong meeting in Margao.
Sharma-ji, the Congress ticket had been given long before you
set yourself on the mission of fooling the South Goa voters
assuring them, in your capacity as "political adviser" to
Madam Sonia-ji, that Valanka-baby stood an excellent chance
of getting the "Hand" symbol.
Right now, Sharma-ji Churchill-bab, is in dire straits. If
you remember Mickky Pacheco, the enfant terrible of Goan
politics had filed a disqualification petition against
Churchill Alemao and Reginaldo Lourenço on the ground that
their mother party Save Goa Front had not been legally merged
and no longer continued to exist.
Mickky Pacheco's disqualification petition is before Speaker
Pratapsing Rane who has proved, time and again, that he knows
the rules even better than some Supreme Court judges.
The Election Commission's decision on the dicey issue of
SGF's existence is clear as daylight. Neither was the alleged
merger of SGF in INC legally formalised nor is SGF's status
clear. If the reader remembers, two SGF members Anton Gaoncar
and Raul Pereira claimed that they were the leaders of what
of SGF still remained. Pereira had claimed that Gauncar's
membership stood terminated while Gauncar was sure that as
the vice president of SGF at the time of Churchill's exit
(Churchill was then the president) he was the legal heir to
the top post.
The EC's decision negates Pereira's claim but has demanded to
know from Gauncar why the party should not forfeit its
recognition as a state party.
Churchill has claimed that daughter Valanka has an
invitation from Mayawati for a ticket from her
party. If she accepts it, why not? The more the
merrier is the flavour of the ongoing election
campaign.
Some drop by the wayside, like Sanjay Dutt, some have
rebelled against their mother-party, and there is Varun
Gandhi whose future remains unsure. He has been slapped with
charges under NSA, which, on the face of it, the young brat
invited upon himself. He has said that he is proud of the
Gandhi name he wears, clearly hinting that he is his father's
son. That is an uncontestable truth except that father Sanjay
committed unspeakable excesses to consolidate himself as the
Congress supremo ready to take on mother Indira Gandhi's
mantle. At the time, Maneka, his mother was just 18 and her
immaturity showed in Surya, the scandal magazine she edited
and eventually sold to the BJP.
Babu Jagjivam Ram, who had run foul of her 'saas' was one of
her targets. Sting operations were then not the fashion, but
Jagjivam's son was a moron who loved to get himself
photographed while frolicking with his girlfriend. Maneka got
hold of a set of photos and splashed them in her Surya. It
was, Maneka later claimed, a scoop. But, the truth be said,
the magazine sold very well. She was a faithful acolyte of
her boisterous and tyrannical husband.
She has matured since. Didn't you see her on your telly,
palloo covering her head, modesty personified, warning the
Samajvadi and INC parties that they would be solely
responsible if anything happens to "the boy", who, she
indignantly says, is being "lynched" by the media for the
contents of a doctored CD of his vitriolic attack on the
Muslims.
But let us get back to Elections09, the great reality show
now on TV channels, all of them, national and state, English
and vernacular: pre-poll projections and prospects.
Not that I go by the pre-poll predictions by TV channels,
print media, and experts. They have nothing to lose,
certainly not their reputation because, election after
election, they end up explaining away their wrong predictions
with what they call "marginal last minute swings".
India's first highly rated psephologist was our
gaunvbao Eric P. W. da Costa who was a brilliant
alumni of the London School of Economy and whose
advice on economic matters was at times availed of
by Pandit Nehru.
When the ancient Greeks used pebbles (psephos) as ballots to
cast their vote, psephology was a less risky science. Now we
have geniuses like Sharad Pawar, Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh
Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan, Biju Patnaik and Left leaders gone
berserk whose agendas and alignments, to say the least, do
not vouch for their political morality.
Patnaik has tied up with the third front, who, on principle,
severed his over a decade old relationship with BJP. Pawar
has tied up with the BJP in the NE and is not averse to waltz
with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. The Left is courting
Mayawati and Jayalalitha. PMK has divorced DMK and married
AIDMK, Chandra Babu is sure of one thing; happen what may,
his TDP will have nothing to do with the Congress.
The Left, on the other hand, will have nothing to do with the
BJP and the Congress. Not to be left behind, Jeetendra
Deshprabhu left the Congress in Goa, which, he says, "is
still my party" and joined the NCP "with a heavy heart".
Some will lose, some will win. On May 14, we will know who
the victors and the vanquished are, and by mid-June we will
have a government in place, which does not mean a credible
governance. What is worrisome is that there is no hint of any
party, except the Congress, the BJP, and the CPM, of having
any programme of governance.
While the world, and inescapably India, are facing
the threat of terrorism and of an economic meltdown
of proportions never before seen, we have clowns
like Lalu Prasad who swear by the UPA, proclaim
Sonia-ji as his "leader" and Dr. Manmohan Singh as
his "prime minister", and yet he is in a
fratricidal fight with the Congress in Bihar and UP.
The mind, quite simply, boggles. But let us pause and take
stock of the Goa situation. Digambar Kamat has stated that
whatever happens after the votes are counted his government
will remain as it is. It is good to be an optimist. That
gives you confidence, strength and the capacity to doggedly
fight for one's goal.
It could also mean mistaking the tree for the wood. If the
UPA with INC as its leading component does not win this
election, the local alliance, already fragile, could come
crashing down. Dayanand Narvekar is still fuming at the
shabby way Hari Prasad ousted him from the cabinet. He was
perhaps the most capable minister, he is a thinker and a
doer. It is almost sure that with a weak UPA at the centre
Daya will flex his muscles and perhaps topple Diggu-bab.
Then, there are the other factors. What of it if the Speaker
disqualifies Churchill and Lourenço. With the renewal of its
Ram Mandir pledge, and the speech of Varun Gandhi, whether
doctored or not, even the fringe support BJP was getting from
a few Muslim members of the party will crumble. The Muslims
will, I guess, vote en masse against the BJP and dim its
chances of victory.
In other words, Manohar Parrikar, too, will be
considerably weaker. But one never knows.
Parrikar's tactic so far has been support from the
outside -- even the devil incarnate if he has to --
and then proceed to destroy his partners. That is
what happened to Dr. Wilfred de Sousa, that is what
happened to Francisco Sardinha. Again that's what
happened to the Babush-Alemao-the
Dhavalikars-Victoria alliance he had cobbled. To my
mind Digambar Kamat has to be extremely cautious
and scheming -- virtues or vices whatever they be
in your opinion, he is not, bereft of.
[Courtesy: Gomantak Times, April 7, 2009]
