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Subject:
[sangkancil] Chechnya - War (fwd)
Date:
Tue, 27 Jun 2000 18:36:48 +0800 (MYT)
From:
"M.G.G. Pillai" [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To:
Sang Kancil [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CC:
SK [EMAIL PROTECTED]
-- Forwarded message --
Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2000 20:26:48 -0500 (CDT)
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Chechnya - War
Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 27 June 2000
__
Know Your World
http://www.stratfor.com
_
On Stratfor.com:
How An Explosion in Kuwait Will Rock the Price of Oil
http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/000627.htm
China Targets Taiwan's Wallet
http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0006270117.htm
_
Chechnya: Is the War Really Over?
Summary
Despite its proclamations of victory, Russia is no closer to winning the
war in Chechnya than it was six months ago. Col. Gen. Gennady Troshev,
the military commander for the region, has virtually begged for the
resources to finish the job. The Kremlin, nevertheless, has pulled out
troops. In a final effort to alter the situation on the ground, Troshev
took matters into his own hands on June 25 and declared an end to the
war. The Russian commander appears intent on forcing Moscow to focus on
the war, admit loss - or sack him and expose a serious political rift in
the country's military.
Analysis
Russia's military commander in Chechnya has openly challenged both the
military's general staff and the civilian-run Defense Ministry in Moscow
over how the campaign is being waged.
In the past two days contradictory statements have emerged from the
military leadership, making it clear that Col. Gen. Gennady Troshev,
commander of Russian troops in Chechnya, is trying to pressure Moscow
into action. Troshev will force Moscow either to focus on a war it has
largely laid aside, admit a loss - or sack the insubordinate commander
and risk exposing a rift within the military.
Chief of the General Staff Anatoly Kvashnin admitted to the press on
June 24 that the military had yet to secure its grip on the breakaway
Chechen republic. The next day, Troshev, who recently called on Moscow
to end the war, announced that the war was over and there would be no
more air or artillery attacks against the rebels. Nevertheless, in the
24 hours between June 25 and June 26, Russian planes and helicopters
flew 42 combat missions.
Would you like to see full text?
http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/062700.ASP
___
Troshev, stripped of resources and charged with winning a war that is no
longer a priority for President Vladimir Putin, is facing an endless,
bloody war. The Chechens staged more than 20 attacks per day several
days last week, and continue to pose a serious challenge to Russian
forces.
Meanwhile, Moscow has vacillated in its official decision on whether the
war is over and has pursued an aimless policy of low- grade combat.
Approximately half of the original 90,000 troops have been sent home.
According to Kvashnin, the current Kremlin belief is that the war has
not been won. And, despite his decision to take direct control over the
republic, the president has turned little apparent attention to the
Chechen conflict.
Troshev, traditionally one of the military's most staunch proponents of
the Chechen war, no longer has even the slightest hope of a military
victory in Chechnya under these conditions. However, he also has no
desire to lead a drawn-out mission in Chechnya - or be saddled with the
blame for a perpetually failing campaign. Several weeks ago Troshev made
a public statement calling for the politicians who started the war to
end it - though not by negotiations. In other words, he wanted
permission to take the necessary action to win the war.
When Moscow kept pulling troops out, Troshev realized he was being asked
to do the impossible. Unable to ensure a military victory, he decided to
send a message to Moscow by creating a false political victory. He
declared that the war had been won, the army could go home, and only the
Interior Ministry troops needed to remain for the mopping up operations.
His move will finally force Moscow into action.
None of the Kremlin's options, however, are appealing. To end the war,
the Kremlin will either have to negotiate a settlement with the
Chechens,
