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PAS : KE ARAH PEMERINTAHAN ISLAM YANG ADIL
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THE ROVING EYE :
Islamophobia and the new great game
By Pepe Escobar
Asia Times (Hong Kong)
October 18, 2001
PESHAWAR - Muslim intellectuals are afraid, very
afraid: they fear "Islamophobia" - a deadly virus
infiltrating parts of the Western psyche in the middle
of the most dramatic shift of geopolitical tectonic
plates in living memory.
For Ja'afer Sheik Idris, a respected Islamic scholar,
the Western fear of Islam is ancestral. He is fond of
quoting former French president Charles de Gaulle, who
said, "The future belongs to Islam" - and this was not
a French witticism. The West may not fear Islam as a
religion of peace and submission (to Allah) - but it
does fear the many distorted versions of radical
Islam. To complicate matters further, Islamic thinkers
and activists haven't been able so far to package
Islam as an intellectual challenge to the West.
In purely military terms, the American war on
Afghanistan may have achieved very little so far -
especially when one considers that the most powerful
armada in history took at least four days to establish
air supremacy over a wretched heap of ruins - and on
top of it managed to turn an intolerant medieval
theocracy into a nationalist struggle. Even Afghans
who hated the Taliban have now rallied behind them to
defend their land against a foreign invader. Did
Donald "Gung Ho" Rumsfeld and his Pentagon generals
ever learn of a subject called the history of Central
Asia?
Not only in Peshawar - the Islamic Rome - but in many
enlightened corners of the globe, there is a feeling
that the first phase of the Afghan War 2001 did not go
to the US. A second phase has already started - and
then there is the bio-terror that is spreading like a
virus throughout the US, and sooner or later Europe
and the Middle East. No-one is reassured by the fact
that Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda may possess a set of
crude chemical weapons - but no high-tech systems to
deliver them.
Meanwhile, the "West" keeps equating itself to the
"civilized world" and the "free world" - all other
"worlds" being, of course, barbaric. Not only did bin
Laden bring down the nuclear Soviet empire, but
apparently he has also managed to reconfigure the West
as a conceptual monolith. At least some voices of
reason in Asia, the Middle East and even in Europe are
asking what happened to all these lofty Western values
during the plunder of Africa, the brutal overthrow of
elected governments, such as that of Mohammad Mosadegh
in Iran and Salvador Allende in Chile, and the lethal
bomb-and-napalm cocktail that decimated 2 million
Vietnamese. A lot of enlightened minds in the West are
considering that maybe bin Laden is not a product of
Islamic civilization's hatred of democracy after all -
but a product of the obliteration of democracy in the
arrogant, imperial West.
The long-suffering Afghan people are supposed to be
the first beneficiaries of the New World Order in the
New Great Game. But until Black September, nobody
cared about the plight of Afghan women. And nobody
cared that millions of Afghans were about to die of
hunger. Any United Nations or non-governmental
official working in Afghanistan can confirm this. Now
the "civilized West" is promising to solve the huge
humanitarian crisis that the American bombings have
just exacerbated. No wonder in Paris, Berlin and Rome
there is widespread talk of "Western fundamentalism" -
brilliantly represented in the Indonesian poster of
bearded, turbaned Osama bin Bush.
•••••••
In the dusty backstreets of Peshawar, not far from the
immense refugee camps where life is only slightly more
livable than inside Afghanistan, sits the Old Wise
Man. His perspective is essential to understand the
way a moderate Islamic intellectual views the New
Great Game. The Old Wise Man is a deluxe adviser:
during the jihad against the Soviets in the 1980s he
was behind the whole Islamic movement. Nowadays, he
has no formal position: he spends his days being wise.
"The whole crisis is not indigenous", he says, "It was
provoked by the Russians and then the Americans. The
Afghans are fundamentally a peaceful people. Bin Laden
is an outsider. He was brought and pumped by America.
How can they blame the Afghans for what happened? Both
superpowers created this situation artificially."
The Old Wise Man stresses that "because of its
strategic importance, any change in Afghanistan
changes the scenario in the subcontinent, in the
Middle East, everywhere". May no-one be fooled:
Afghans, not for nothing living in "the heart of
Asia", have "immunity against war". "When Aryans came,
they became Vedic Hindus. When the predominant faith
was Buddhist, the entire of Asia became Buddhist. When
it embraced Islam, it was exported all over within 100
years, up to the south of India. Even the strength of
Iran was dependent on the Afghans. The Russians came
to this black hole and were strangulated. Everybody
who came with a foreign army was crushed. If the
communists had succeeded, they would have captured the
whole region: the whole free world could have been
dictated by Moscow."
The Old Wise Man has some stunning formulations, "The
real India is Pakistan. India is around the Indus.
They have the same spirit as Charlemagne's troops
centuries ago in the reconquest of Spanish territories
lost to Muslims in the Reconquista of Spain. The 'Land
of Seven Rivers' is very sacred for Indians. It's
inherent in their brain. They think in terms of
Greater India. [Mahatma] Gandhi wanted to get rid of
Kashmir. But not [India's first premier Jawaharlal]
Nehru: that's why Gandhi was killed."
Afghans, according to the Old Wise Man, have nothing
to lose. This war - it's all about scrap metal, "To
get scrap to sell, they would persuade people to
bombard them." This is confirmed by many different
reports these days coming from Kabul. For the Old Wise
Man, the Northern Alliance forces fighting the Taliban
are not capable of sustaining Kabul should they
capture it; and for him they are "more affiliated with
the Taliban than with former King Zahir Shah".
A chilling scenario, "America can destabilize both
Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is part of the American
agenda. This is primarily an invasion against
Pakistan. If Pakistan is reduced to just the Punjab,
its atomic capability becomes ineffective." The Old
Wise Man sees ahead of him a scenario of total
balkanization: Great Tajikistan, Great Baluchistan,
Great Pashtunistan. "And India will also be divided.
America wants a permanent base inside Afghanistan.
National states will be finished. The sovereignty of
the people will be finished. Who will rule Afghanistan
is a secondary thing." But the reaction from Islam has
already started, "Muslims from Indonesia to Senegal
now understand. No American now can walk safely in
this area."
So, as many people suspected, "it's not about bin
Laden. America creates justifications and
rationalizations of its savage behavior." He quotes
high-level sources to state that "before September 11
it had already been decided [by the US] to attack
Afghanistan in October anyway". Since "a man living in
a cave in the Pamirs cannot do it", the only suspect
left in the attack against America is the Israeli
Mossad. "The Zionists in America feel like the
pre-Hitler era in Germany. They feel there may be a
second reaction against them. They are now totally
dependent on China. All the US technological secrets
have gone to China. Hitler was a beneficiary of
Israel: its demographic concentration was provided by
him. Now the Israelis are playing the same game with
America."
The Old Wise Man is now unstoppable, Thirty percent of
labor in America is concentrated in war-oriented
industries. They create wars. They must have an enemy.
It's a Rambo psychology. And the American public is
ignorant, and kept alienated. But they cannot create a
policy of this magnitude - alienating the Islamic
world. Every fifth man is a Muslim. Jewish
commentators like Bernard Lewis are saying that
one-third of Muslims should be killed: he says if they
are not kept under control, "civilization will be
found only in a museum". The 'Clash of Civilizations'
is now the road map of America'."
By the dominance of capitalism, "Jews have caused the
spiritual bankruptcy of the West. They fear that Islam
may replace it one day, because Islam is a way of
life, giving instruction on everything. Their attitude
is of a defensive philosophy."
The Old Wise Man says that facing so many historical
forces, President General Pervez Musharraf "had
basically two options: to be killed by the Americans,
or remain unpopular. He's a prisoner of circumstance.
The major reshuffle in the army was practically
imposed on him." The Old Wise Man considers that "the
Taliban could attack Uzbekistan - and a revolution
would engulf all of Central Asia. [President Islam]
Karimov is very unpopular. An attack like this could
reduce pressure on Chechnya. [Russian President
Vladimir] Putin is trying to reach peace in Chechnya.
Inside Russia 20 percent of the people are Muslims. As
far as America is concerned, this attack is like a
shock. America could wake up and think 'We must
co-exist. Why should there be a spirit of
domination'?"
But America is fighting a ghost. Echoing hordes of
starstruck Muslims, but on a different register, the
Old Wise Man comments how "there are many Osamas. A
Maulana [religious teacher] told me a story that he
had met quite a few. And he only knew the truth when
one of them said to him. 'I am the real Osama'."
Another house in Peshawar, another man, maybe not so
wise, but sharp as an Afghan knife, and as
well-dressed as a Pashtun potentate. He raps on the
American strategy for the Muslim world, "After the
Gulf War, America got a permanent base in the Middle
East to police any Muslim misbehavior in the area, and
also got direct access to the Middle East oil wealth"
- easily deniable to any of the misbehaving lot.
America's deluxe allies in this situation were Turkey
and Saudi Arabia.
Now, according to the Sharp Dressed Man, comes the
American strategy "to prevent the emergence of a solid
block of Islamic States" - and the strategy is
centered on Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Afghan War
is the first part of the strategy. The Taliban should
be "smoked out" - and the subsequent "political
dispensation" (copyright General Musharraf) can be
"manipulated by America": the objective, according to
the Sharp Dressed Man, would be an anti-Pakistan
government centered around anti-Pakistan Zahir Shah
and the Northern Alliance.
This government, says the Sharp Dressed Man, would be
"total anarchy" - like the Mujahideen period of
1992-96, out of which emerged the Taliban as a
cleansing power. "But as long as Afghanistan is in
turmoil, it is impossible for the Central Asian
republics to have a direct link with Pakistan, and
this prevents the emergence of a powerful Islamic
block in the region."
The Sharp Dressed Man is adamant that the US strategy
to contain China is centered in India. "The US would
like to neutralize Pakistan's nuclear capability, to
quell fears of its main strategic long-term ally,
India." He insists that America "had plans to target
Pakistan before having to deal with Afghanistan, but
Musharraf fooled not only [Indian premier Atal Bihari]
Vajpayee but [President George W] Bush himself by
swiftly changing sides to America instead of
supporting the Taliban". But the problem, says the
Sharp Dressed Man, is that America fears the Sino-Pak
alliance: when the war is over, Pakistan could once
again be thrown away - just like after the jihad
against the USSR. This feeling is certainly widespread
all over Pakistan: the country cannot trust America,
and especially as a mediator in the Kashmir issue.
According to Pakistanis, India will never cease to try
to convince world opinion that Kashmir is not a war of
liberation but terrorism pure and simple.
•••••••
Far away from Peshawar, in Paris, Professor Marwan
Bishara stresses the "impressive economic packages"
used by America "to co-opt two key allies: Pakistan
and Turkey". Bishara identifies a strategic triangle
of Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia - the latter the
critical US ally in the Arab world. So America can
have the benefit of an alliance of large Islamic
countries capable of advancing its Middle Eastern and
Central Asian interests - which are not necessarily
their own. An immediate consequence of this alliance
is the further marginalization of the Middle East:
it's important to notice that Egypt is not a part of
the package.
Bishara stresses the geostrategic location of the
alliance: between Russia and China. What is implied is
a long-term projection of American military force and
influence in the New Great Game played in Eurasia.
Russia, obviously, could become very suspicious - but
this new emerging geopolitical configuration suits
Moscow as well. Russia has been in battle with Islam
for almost a thousand years. This is what Putin got
from the package - discussed on the famous 70-minute
long phone call with Bush on September 23: no
objections to America establishing a base in Central
Asia as long as Russia's southern border is secured
against the spread of radical Islam of the hardcore
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) version. The IMU
is trained and supported by the Taliban. Its chief,
Juma Namangani, is number two on Taliban leader Mullah
Omar's love list.
Russia used to consider Turkey and Pakistan as "the
Islamic NATO". But now both are supposed to be
fighting against radical Islam in the Central Asian
republics. Saudi Arabia's ultra-conservative monarchy
is expected in the new American strategy to contain
hardcore wahhabis inside Russia, mostly Chechnya. And
there is a moving target in this big picture: the
Hizb-e-Tahrir, a Talibanization movement inside
Uzbekistan, Tajkistan and Kyrgyzstan. Russian leaders
can hardly believe their luck: their unstable Central
Asian republics are going to fight radical Islam with
the help of America.
But is this the best of possible worlds? Not really,
because Washington, according to professor Bishara,
can't help being simple-minded. Washington, for the
moment, has only two strategies, according to the
professor. To bomb its enemies - allegedly supporters
of terrorism - to oblivion, or to co-opt a bunch of
other states into being "friends" of circumstance. The
Powell doctrine may be dead and buried - but at least
Secretary of State Colin Powell is an advocate of
co-option. Of course, this does not preclude the fact
that America can bomb Iraq whenever it feels like it.
Any Middle Eastern or Central Asian analyst worth his
bottle of Johnny Walker is saying that the US is
repeating the same mistakes of the Cold War - like the
alliance with the Shah of Iran in the 1970s: alliances
with hardline or semi-totalitarian governments can
only lead to an extremely violent anti-American
backlash from their own populations. Bishara argues
that "the geography of violence and the politics of
geography have changed forever" after September 11.
So the result will be even more turbulence in the
Middle East-Central Asia axis. The avalanche of
pro-American world opinion will soon vanish -
something that is directly proportional to the
increasing civilian casualties in Afghanistan. Bishara
also pays a lot of attention to the role of China -
thunderously silent for the past month, still in shock
to find nothing less than American troops not very far
from its volatile western border in Xinjiang. China is
very much interested in the Central Asian energy
bonanza, and also in its markets: they are all part of
the New Silk Road. Sooner, rather than later, China
will start rumbling against the Turk-Saudi-Pakistani
pro-American alliance. India also has motives for
being angry - because the alliance bolsters Pakistan
and brings the Kashmir problem to a lot of
international attention.
In the Arab world, says Bishara, the crux of the
matter is there are no Arab leaders with charisma,
vision, competence or popular appeal capable of
offering a project of development for the region. It
is the turmoil and the "social failure" of the Middle
East that ultimately led to the desperate route of
totalitarian destructive ideology defended by
Al-Qaeda. The expression "moderate Arab states" means
"coward Arab states" in the eyes of their populations.
So, according to Bishara, the periphery of Islam will
have access to the center of the Islamic world, and
this will lead to a crisis between Arab and non-Arab
Islamic states.
This is a powerful case: the new geostrategic alliance
will breed more violence, more terrorism, and more
anti-American rage. Taking a cue from the Old Wise
Man, we may be facing a "clash of civilizations"
between hundreds of millions of Islamic victims and
dozens of millions of "executioners" - Western but
also Islamic. Bishara attributes all these new
developments to the "arrogance of power".
It is very tempting and also instructive to compare
these views with an Israeli perspective - expressed in
the intelligence portal debka.com. The Israelis are
enunciating what is already an open secret: this is
all about oil - future oil wealth.
In the new value scale, down goes the Arabian
peninsula, the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, and
up go the Central Asian republics - and in smaller
measure Caucasian Azerbaijan and Georgia. This was all
cemented and celebrated in that famous long call
between Bush and Putin. The most immediate and
earth-shattering consequence of all this was the
deployment of US military power - including tactical
nuclear weapons - in Central Asia, for the very first
time.
The Israelis compare it to "the advance of Alexander
the Great" more than 2,300 years ago. But when
Alexander moved to Central Asia on his way to conquer
India, he first thought about bringing down the
Persian Empire - thereby covering his rearguard.
George W Bush is no Alexander the Great - even if he
is now moving in the same direction. But he can count
on a very important strategic and logistical reserve
for his war: the Turkish and Israeli armies which,
according to debka, "have had drills together for five
years with discreet American participation".
How long this New Semi-Permanent New Order is going to
last depends on how long the Bush-Putin alliance is
going to last. There's a feeling in Brussels that
Putin may have brushed off Europe because, for him,
the future of Eurasia will be decided in Central Asia.
But there are conflicting signals - propagated by
sources close to Russian intelligence - that a
collection of top army generals and ex-KGBs are
actively seeking revenge for the fall of the Soviet
Empire. The beginning of the end was of course the
anti-USSR jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The new
strategy would be to trap America in Afghanistan
against a fierce Taliban guerrilla movement.
Nobody also can tell what will happen to the Central
Asian states - whose governments unleash a violent
repression of any dissidence and at the same time try
to fight a radical Islam sometimes supported, financed
and trained by the Taliban-Al Qaeda axis. The Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan is a real challenge to Karimov.
But in the event that the US loses the military bases
in Uzbekistan or Tajikistan, it can always count on
Turkey as a backup.
And then there's the role of silent China. America's
physical presence in Central Asia is a proposition
that gives Beijing the creeps. Especially because
Beijing and Moscow until a few weeks ago were involved
in a very cosy political and military alliance against
"hegemonic" America - an alliance spanning Central
Asia, the Balkans and the Middle East. There was
always the odd face-off regarding Taiwan, but this was
a minor irritant. Now China is facing America on three
different fronts: Afghanistan-Pakistan (until recently
part of China's sphere of influence); Taiwan; and
Central Asia.
Xinjiang is the key. According to sources, the Chinese
are now encouraging Uighurs to cross into Afghanistan
en masse to fight alongside the Taliban against an
American invasion. The Chinese borders with
Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are on high
military alert. George "I Wish I Was Alexander" Bush
will be meeting Chinese President Jiang Zemin in
Shanghai on the weekend for the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation summit, and will later visit Beijing. It
would do him good to brush up on Sun-Tzu's seminal
treatise, The Art of War.
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