Re: IPv4 to IPv6 transition

2007-10-04 Thread Artur Hecker

Hi


On 4 Oct 2007, at 19:50, Keith Moore wrote:



http://www.apple.com/jp/downloads/dashboard/networking_security/ 
ipv420.h

tml

Each time I see one of these days remaining before Armaggedon
counters, I can't help but remember what happened on January 1, 2000:
nothing.


yes, but that's because people heeded the warnings, and prepared.  if
the same thing happens wrt IPv4 exhaustion, that will be fabulous.


No doubt - that nicely paid off our profession so we should not  
complain :-)


However, that's an intriguing discussion because I almost as often  
hear quite the contrary argument: indeed, given billions of USD and  
EUR spent on that issue, one could reasonably argue that the issue  
was overblown and ask to which degree this statement is true and what  
would have actually happened without all the pressure.


So far, I could not find anything really useful on that (proofs?) but  
keep on hearing very opposite positions, but it's maybe just me?


Does anybody have any established and sustained opinion on that and  
could provide verifiable if not objective data? How many critical  
bugs were really found in typical systems? What would have been the  
real impact? What could have happenned in terms of impact (meaning:  
it would definitely have happened, not the what-if analysis)? Was the  
cost higher than the estimated risk?



thanks for any pointers
artur

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Re: Stupid NAT tricks and how to stop them.

2006-03-28 Thread Artur Hecker


Today, 90% of the phones in the world are still analog. Including  
mine,

in the capital of California and my buddies' in the heart of Silicon
Valley.


the (static) statement that 90% of phones are analog seems very  
wrong to me.


according to newest ITU-D estimates, by the end of 2004, there were  
1.2 billion land lines, with an average annual growth rate of 5.8%  
since 1999. this means 18.99 lines per 100 world inhabitants [1].


i ignore how many of these lines are analog, but what is for sure is  
that the most phones today do not have any lines at all: at the same  
time, the ITU registered 1.76 billion cellular subscribers, with an  
annual growth rate of 29% since 1999. This makes up for 27.61 phones  
per 100 world inhabitants [2].


the vast majority of cellular phones are not analog (GSM+ being the  
nr 1 technology [3]) and thus probably less than 50% of world phones  
are analog.


i don't know how this relates to the current nat/ipv6/ipv4  
discussion, but the argument above could be easily turned into a  
counter-argument: one could have said that with the original analog  
phones we were not able to solve the digital divide in the voice  
service and a new technology has become necessary :-)



regards
artur

[1] http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/at_glance/main04.pdf
[2] http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/at_glance/cellular04.pdf
[3] http://www.gsmworld.com/index.shtml

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