Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

2010-12-10 Thread Peter Vince
Hello Paul,

 I'd be interested if you have some examples of of Y2K bugs that
were fixed before they became a problem.  In my very limited
experience, I wasn't affected by any, nor aware of them.

 Peter


On 10 December 2010 01:55, Paul Sheer p...@2038bug.com wrote:
 Everybody said y2k was going to break everything.  In the end, it was a
 non-event :)

 It was a non-event BECAUSE the industry spent enormous $$ to fix all the
 zillions of Y2K bugs in time.

 It was still a disaster from an expendature point of view.

 (Does anyone need to even explain this)

 -paul
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Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

2010-12-10 Thread Warner Losh

On 12/09/2010 17:35, Rob Seaman wrote:

On Dec 9, 2010, at 3:53 PM, Steve Allen wrote:


This is the first example I've come across where a widely used API will break 
if UTC does not continue to have leap seconds.

Has anyone even considered a Y2K style inventory?

Absence of evidence is not...oh, what's the point?
Keep in mind that while a code change would required to fetch DUT1 from 
the internet or other source, the API could continue to function, but 
with an increased uncertainty as the date is farther into the future.  
If this is an important number to know, I'm sure someone will publish a 
model that tries to approximate dUT1 and gives an uncertainty range that 
presumably expands the further into the future we go.


You're correct about the question: How many of these interfaces are 
there, and what is the implication for increasing the error in the 
present calculation from 1s?  For php, I doubt anybody would care for 
the cases likely to be in error...  For other things, likely they care more.


Warner
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Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

2010-12-10 Thread Gerard Ashton

On 12/10/2010 10:15 AM, Peter Vince wrote:

Hello Paul,

  I'd be interested if you have some examples of of Y2K bugs that
were fixed before they became a problem.  In my very limited
experience, I wasn't affected by any, nor aware of them.

  Peter


On 10 December 2010 01:55, Paul Sheerp...@2038bug.com  wrote:

Everybody said y2k was going to break everything.  In the end, it was a
non-event :)

It was a non-event BECAUSE the industry spent enormous $$ to fix all the
zillions of Y2K bugs in time.

It was still a disaster from an expendature point of view.

(Does anyone need to even explain this)

-paul

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I worked for IBM at the time. Many older personal computers in use by 
staff were discarded because it would have been too difficult to teach 
all the staff the special tricks to keep them limping along when 2000 
arrived.


Gerry Ashton
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Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

2010-12-10 Thread Richard B. Langley
USNO predicts UT1-UTC. In Bulletin A  
http://maia.usno.navy.mil/ser7/ser7.dat, they predict daily values  
for a year in advance but only provide an error estimate up to 40 days  
in advance. Elsewhere http://maia.usno.navy.mil/ser7/deltat.preds,  
longer-term predictions are given; supposedly updated annually.


-- Richard Langley

Quoting Warner Losh i...@bsdimp.com:


On 12/09/2010 17:35, Rob Seaman wrote:

On Dec 9, 2010, at 3:53 PM, Steve Allen wrote:

This is the first example I've come across where a widely used API  
will break if UTC does not continue to have leap seconds.

Has anyone even considered a Y2K style inventory?

Absence of evidence is not...oh, what's the point?
Keep in mind that while a code change would required to fetch DUT1  
from the internet or other source, the API could continue to  
function, but with an increased uncertainty as the date is farther  
into the future.  If this is an important number to know, I'm sure  
someone will publish a model that tries to approximate dUT1 and  
gives an uncertainty range that presumably expands the further into  
the future we go.


You're correct about the question: How many of these interfaces are  
there, and what is the implication for increasing the error in the  
present calculation from 1s?  For php, I doubt anybody would care  
for the cases likely to be in error...  For other things, likely  
they care more.


Warner
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===
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 Geodetic Research Laboratory  Web: http://www.unb.ca/GGE/
 Dept. of Geodesy and Geomatics EngineeringPhone:+1 506 453-5142
 University of New Brunswick   Fax:  +1 506 453-4943
 Fredericton, N.B., Canada  E3B 5A3
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Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

2010-12-10 Thread Paul Sheer

 It's very concerning if Y2K has been recast as a myth
 among technical professionals, [...]

Concerning indeed:

KCBI a Christian radio chanel recently proclaimed:

  The Y2K is an example of scientists predicting disaster
  when there was none. This is just like global warming.

There have been numerous media articles that Y2K was an
example of paranoia.

If the government had spend the money to re-inforce
the dykes in new orleans, people would have later
said: What a waiste of tax payer money: Look - there
went a Cat 5 hurrican and nothing happened.

Go figure.

-paul





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Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

2010-12-10 Thread Paul Sheer

I'm getting emotional to prepare for Y2038

Please don't take offense

-paul


On Fri, 2010-12-10 at 16:21 +, p...@2038bug.com wrote:

 WH-WH-Wht
 
 Contractors spent millions of hours wading through hundreds of millions of 
 lines of code
 adding missing century digits.
 
 Thousands of Cobal programmers lost there jobs
 after Y2K.
 
 Every organisation that managed any kind of
 computer system had to do testing to verify
 that the systems would work through Y2K and
 replace them otherwise.
 
 My company managed such a system.
 
 Were you living under a rock then
 
 -paul
 
 
 
 Sent from my BlackBerry® by Boost Mobile
 
 -Original Message-
 From: Gerard Ashton ashto...@comcast.net
 Sender: leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com
 Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 11:03:10 
 To: Leap Second Discussion Listleapsecs@leapsecond.com
 Reply-To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
 Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?
 
 On 12/10/2010 10:15 AM, Peter Vince wrote:
  Hello Paul,
 
I'd be interested if you have some examples of of Y2K bugs that
  were fixed before they became a problem.  In my very limited
  experience, I wasn't affected by any, nor aware of them.
 
Peter
 
 
  On 10 December 2010 01:55, Paul Sheerp...@2038bug.com  wrote:
  Everybody said y2k was going to break everything.  In the end, it was a
  non-event :)
 
  It was a non-event BECAUSE the industry spent enormous $$ to fix all the
  zillions of Y2K bugs in time.
 
  It was still a disaster from an expendature point of view.
 
  (Does anyone need to even explain this)
 
  -paul
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 I worked for IBM at the time. Many older personal computers in use by 
 staff were discarded because it would have been too difficult to teach 
 all the staff the special tricks to keep them limping along when 2000 
 arrived.
 
 Gerry Ashton
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Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

2010-12-10 Thread Rob Seaman
On Dec 10, 2010, at 9:18 AM, Richard B. Langley wrote:

 USNO predicts UT1-UTC. In Bulletin A 
 http://maia.usno.navy.mil/ser7/ser7.dat, they predict daily values for a 
 year in advance but only provide an error estimate up to 40 days in advance. 
 Elsewhere http://maia.usno.navy.mil/ser7/deltat.preds, longer-term 
 predictions are given; supposedly updated annually.

This is another good example of the absence of due diligence related to the ITU 
proposal.  Any even halfway competent engineering plan would discuss issues 
related to contingent infrastructure changes.  If UTC is redefined to lack leap 
seconds, the logistics of predicting and announcing UT1-UTC (and similar 
quantities) will become much more critical.  The details should be settled in 
advance.

Systems engineering best practices are a way to avoid problems before they 
occur.

Rob

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[LEAPSECS] New Horizons in Time Domain Astronomy

2010-12-10 Thread Rob Seaman
Timekeeping is a means to an end.  We've often discussed logistical issues.  
There are more fundamental issues, many of which will be topics of IAU 
Symposium 285 at Oxford (UK), 19-23 Sep 2011:

http://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/timedomainconf

The Astronomer Royal, Martin Rees, will deliver a public lecture titled What 
time is it?.

Pre-registration is open.

Rob

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Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

2010-12-10 Thread Poul-Henning Kamp
In message 4d024bb8.9060...@bsdimp.com, Warner Losh writes:
On 12/09/2010 17:35, Rob Seaman wrote:

Rob,

First, a point of semantics:  I don't think leap seconds can break
php further than it already is.

Second, there is no basis for claiming that php breaks when you
are talking about some random library function.  The language
itself is unfortunately unharmed.

Third, you have whined and complained about all the breakage for
years now, this is the first piece of concrete code you have ever
presented.  Not exactly a bumper crop, but congratulations
are presumably still in order.

But I have to disappoint you, I don't think a random piece of
PHP code will convince anybody anywhere...

-- 
Poul-Henning Kamp   | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20
p...@freebsd.org | TCP/IP since RFC 956
FreeBSD committer   | BSD since 4.3-tahoe
Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by incompetence.
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[LEAPSECS] Leap Sec vs Y2K

2010-12-10 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Ken Seidelmann, John Seago, and I addressed this in our papers and in
the recent editorial in Space News.

The Y2K effort was necessary.  Everyone knew that we could not just
watch what might happen and catch up afterwards.  In the case of leap
seconds, no one knows what the real consequences might be if we changed,
and change is not necessary as it was for years that stopped at 99.   We
can just let things be as they have been for nearly 40 years.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.

-Original Message-
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leapsecs-requ...@leapsecond.com
Sent: Friday, December 10, 2010 10:01 AM
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Today's Topics:

   1. Re: php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds? (p...@2038bug.com)
   2. Re: php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds? (Richard B. Langley)
   3. Re: php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds? (Paul Sheer)


--

Message: 1
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 16:21:43 +
From: p...@2038bug.com
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?
To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID:

1970411972-1291998043-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-11035931
7...@bda950.bisx.prod.on.blackberry

Content-Type: text/plain; charset=Windows-1252


WH-WH-Wht

Contractors spent millions of hours wading through hundreds of millions
of lines of code
adding missing century digits.

Thousands of Cobal programmers lost there jobs
after Y2K.

Every organisation that managed any kind of
computer system had to do testing to verify
that the systems would work through Y2K and
replace them otherwise.

My company managed such a system.

Were you living under a rock then

-paul



Sent from my BlackBerry? by Boost Mobile

-Original Message-
From: Gerard Ashton ashto...@comcast.net
Sender: leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 11:03:10 
To: Leap Second Discussion Listleapsecs@leapsecond.com
Reply-To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

On 12/10/2010 10:15 AM, Peter Vince wrote:
 Hello Paul,

   I'd be interested if you have some examples of of Y2K bugs that
 were fixed before they became a problem.  In my very limited
 experience, I wasn't affected by any, nor aware of them.

   Peter


 On 10 December 2010 01:55, Paul Sheerp...@2038bug.com  wrote:
 Everybody said y2k was going to break everything.  In the end, it was
a
 non-event :)

 It was a non-event BECAUSE the industry spent enormous $$ to fix all
the
 zillions of Y2K bugs in time.

 It was still a disaster from an expendature point of view.

 (Does anyone need to even explain this)

 -paul
 ___
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I worked for IBM at the time. Many older personal computers in use by 
staff were discarded because it would have been too difficult to teach 
all the staff the special tricks to keep them limping along when 2000 
arrived.

Gerry Ashton
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--

Message: 2
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 12:18:58 -0400
From: Richard B. Langley l...@unb.ca
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID: 20101210121858.20027gdb2wlwb...@webmail.unb.ca
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; DelSp=Yes;
format=flowed

USNO predicts UT1-UTC. In Bulletin A  
http://maia.usno.navy.mil/ser7/ser7.dat, they predict daily values  
for a year in advance but only provide an error estimate up to 40 days  
in advance. Elsewhere http://maia.usno.navy.mil/ser7/deltat.preds,  
longer-term predictions are given; supposedly updated annually.

-- Richard Langley

Quoting Warner Losh i...@bsdimp.com:

 On 12/09/2010 17:35, Rob Seaman wrote:
 On Dec 9, 2010, at 3:53 PM, Steve Allen wrote:

 This is the first 

Re: [LEAPSECS] Leap Sec vs Y2K

2010-12-10 Thread Poul-Henning Kamp
In message 3b33e89c51d2de44be2f0c757c656c8809cda...@mail02.stk.com, Finklema
n, Dave writes:

We can just let things be as they have been for nearly 40 years.  

Sure, no argument from here: Please shut down your Internet connection
and any cell-phones you might have, and don't use them ever again :-)

The crucial change in exactly the last 40 years, is that computers
of all sizes are communicating and the applications we want them 
to run for us, very much need to know and agree what time it is.

Poul-Henning

-- 
Poul-Henning Kamp   | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20
p...@freebsd.org | TCP/IP since RFC 956
FreeBSD committer   | BSD since 4.3-tahoe
Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by incompetence.
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Re: [LEAPSECS] Leap Sec vs Y2K

2010-12-10 Thread p

 very much need to know and agree what time it is.

Yes but mostly only to an accuracy of minutes.

-paul


Sent from my BlackBerry® by Boost Mobile

-Original Message-
From: Poul-Henning Kamp p...@phk.freebsd.dk
Sender: leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 18:42:42 
To: Leap Second Discussion Listleapsecs@leapsecond.com
Reply-To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] Leap Sec vs Y2K

In message 3b33e89c51d2de44be2f0c757c656c8809cda...@mail02.stk.com, Finklema
n, Dave writes:

We can just let things be as they have been for nearly 40 years.  

Sure, no argument from here: Please shut down your Internet connection
and any cell-phones you might have, and don't use them ever again :-)

The crucial change in exactly the last 40 years, is that computers
of all sizes are communicating and the applications we want them 
to run for us, very much need to know and agree what time it is.

Poul-Henning

-- 
Poul-Henning Kamp   | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20
p...@freebsd.org | TCP/IP since RFC 956
FreeBSD committer   | BSD since 4.3-tahoe
Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by incompetence.
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Re: [LEAPSECS] Leap Sec vs Y2K

2010-12-10 Thread Poul-Henning Kamp
In message 211674-1292007095-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-4042
478...@bda950.bisx.prod.on.blackberry, p...@2038bug.com writes:

 very much need to know and agree what time it is.

Yes but mostly only to an accuracy of minutes.

Pray tell what authority you have for this pronouncement ?

-- 
Poul-Henning Kamp   | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20
p...@freebsd.org | TCP/IP since RFC 956
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[LEAPSECS] Affect of Y2K on programmers' attitude toward time documents

2010-12-10 Thread Gerard Ashton
One effect I recall from the Y2K prevention effort actually relates to 
29 February 2000. There was considerable discussion among programmers as 
to whether that date existed or not, and there was enough disagreement 
among the computer language manuals and the like that programmers lost 
confidence in publications directed toward the software community, and 
sought primary sources such as Inter gravissimas and the British 
Calendar (New Style) Act 1750. I suspect this rude awakening to the need 
to inspect primary sources may be adding to the present discontent with 
the lack of transparency of the ITU, and the inability to obtain what 
public documents they have for free or for reasonable prices.


Gerry Ashton
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Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

2010-12-10 Thread Rob Seaman
On Dec 10, 2010, at 11:22 AM, Poul-Henning Kamp wrote:

 Third, you have whined and complained about all the breakage for years now, 
 this is the first piece of concrete code you have ever presented.

It wasn't my example.  The responsibility for due diligence doesn't rest with 
those supporting the status quo.  If you deem my emails unworthy of your time - 
don't read them.

Rather, proponents of redefining UTC have asserted unsubstantiated risks.  The 
experiment has been conducted a couple of dozen times of what happens to 
systems worldwide during a leap second.  No such experiment is contemplated 
even in the laboratory of what will happen as DUT1 grows.  No software systems 
inventory is planned.  No professional curiosity has been demonstrated.

Due diligence is laughably absent for this proposal.

Rob

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Re: [LEAPSECS] Affect of Y2K on programmers' attitude toward time documents

2010-12-10 Thread Steve Allen
On Fri 2010-12-10T14:03:08 -0500, Gerard Ashton hath writ:
 I suspect this rude awakening to the need
 to inspect primary sources may be adding to the present discontent with
 the lack of transparency of the ITU, and the inability to obtain what
 public documents they have for free or for reasonable prices.

The proprietary and uncommunicative nature of the ITU-R does not help,
but it is not the only problem.  Even open processes with
freely-available specifications are not a panacea.

Just today the IESG closed the CALSIFY WG.  This was created 5 years
ago in order to update RFC 2445.  One reason that we now have RFC 5545
is that despite the openly-published examples of how repeating
calendar events should have been represented, many vendors chose to
implement them using a different syntax.  Even now with RFC 5545 the
strategies for attaching media to calendar events differ from one
implementation to another.

Nothing works if people don't care to follow the standards.
That is the current situation with UTC and leap seconds.
That's why I think the ITU-R should abandon the name UTC if they
abandon the leap seconds.  The fact that things have changed
needs to be patently obvious before there is hope of motivation.

--
Steve Allen s...@ucolick.orgWGS-84 (GPS)
UCO/Lick ObservatoryNatural Sciences II, Room 165Lat  +36.99855
University of CaliforniaVoice: +1 831 459 3046   Lng -122.06015
Santa Cruz, CA 95064http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/ Hgt +250 m
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Re: [LEAPSECS] Leap Sec vs Y2K

2010-12-10 Thread Rob Seaman
On Dec 10, 2010, at 11:42 AM, Poul-Henning Kamp wrote:

 In message 3b33e89c51d2de44be2f0c757c656c8809cda...@mail02.stk.com, 
 Finklema
 n, Dave writes:
 
 We can just let things be as they have been for nearly 40 years.  
 
 Sure, no argument from here: Please shut down your Internet connection
 and any cell-phones you might have, and don't use them ever again :-)


(Passing over the obvious response that the Internet and cell phones have been 
demonstrated to function with the current definition of UTC.)

This was taken out of context:

On Dec 10, 2010, at 11:22 AM, Finkleman, Dave wrote:

 The Y2K effort was necessary.  Everyone knew that we could not just
 watch what might happen and catch up afterwards.  In the case of leap
 seconds, no one knows what the real consequences might be if we changed,
 and change is not necessary as it was for years that stopped at 99.   We
 can just let things be as they have been for nearly 40 years.

Which is to say that the schedule for Y2K remediation was forced.  We get to 
choose when to address a possible redefinition of civil timekeeping.  It is 
clear that consensus does not yet exist.

PHK continues:

 The crucial change in exactly the last 40 years, is that computers
 of all sizes are communicating and the applications we want them 
 to run for us, very much need to know and agree what time it is.

Not disputed.  What is the concept of operations for the pertaining 
timescale(s)?  What are the requirements?  Innumerable clocks based on 
different types of interval timekeeping as well as on earth orientation exist.  
Pretending time doesn't come in different flavors is not going to work.  System 
engineering provides tools to reach consensus on the problem before 
entertaining possible solutions.  Why not use those tools?

Rob
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Re: [LEAPSECS] Leap Sec vs Y2K

2010-12-10 Thread Daniel R. Tobias
On 11 Dec 2010 at 0:40, Paul Sheer wrote:

 At the ISP I consult for there are about 20 servers serving 60,000
 customers. Their clocks routinely go out of sync and it doesn't affect
 service.

I have a script that dumps the timestamps of each of a number of 
servers where I work; this is a recent result:

Fri Dec 10 23:07:12 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:11 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:06 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:11 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:12 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:15 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:16 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:15 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:15 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:15 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:12 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:12 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:13 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:13 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:12 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:13 EST 2010
Fri Dec 10 23:07:13 EST 2010 

They're more in sync than they were at various times in the past, due 
in part to my own nagging of the sysadmin to get automatic time 
syncing in place consistently (it sometimes takes a good deal of 
fighting to get them to do that, as they are always deathly afraid of 
it corrupting the database or something, due to the time being set 
backward while it's running; this has always proved unfounded, as the 
time syncing is now fully in place even on the database servers with 
no ill effect).  Still, there's a good deal of drift in between auto-
syncs, leading to a ten second gap between the most extreme outliers, 
though most servers are within a five second span.

A leap second will be lost in the noise here, resulting merely in the 
next regular adjustment going one second more (or less) than it would 
have otherwise, with a different absolute magnitude on each server 
depending on its own drift.

-- 
== Dan ==
Dan's Mail Format Site: http://mailformat.dan.info/
Dan's Web Tips: http://webtips.dan.info/
Dan's Domain Site: http://domains.dan.info/


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