Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 83, Issue 7

2013-09-18 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Maybe we should think about a press release and blog.  I am sure we could do it 
through AGI.

DF


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On Sep 19, 2013, at 12:01 AM, leapsecs-requ...@leapsecond.com 
leapsecs-requ...@leapsecond.com wrote:

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   1. Re: joint BIPM/ITU meeting (Steve Allen)
 
 
 --
 
 Message: 1
 Date: Tue, 17 Sep 2013 09:43:53 -0700
 From: Steve Allen s...@ucolick.org
 Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] joint BIPM/ITU meeting
 To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
 Message-ID: 20130917164353.ga7...@ucolick.org
 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
 
 On Fri 2013-09-13T06:57:45 -0700, Steve Allen hath writ:
 In stark contrast to the usual ITU-R pattern and the previous workshop
 held by BIPM at the Royal Society, the presentations for next week's
 workshop in Geneva are being published
 
 http://www.itu.int/oth/R0A0E96/en
 
 Most of the draft presentations are now available.
 ITU-R has also done a press release about the workshop.
 
 http://www.itu.int/net/pressoffice/press_releases/2013/Advisory-14.aspx
 
 --
 Steve Allen s...@ucolick.orgWGS-84 (GPS)
 UCO/Lick Observatory--ISB   Natural Sciences II, Room 165Lat  +36.99855
 1156 High StreetVoice: +1 831 459 3046   Lng -122.06015
 Santa Cruz, CA 95064http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/ Hgt +250 m
 
 
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 End of LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 83, Issue 7
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 83, Issue 5

2013-09-15 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Wouldn't the problem go away if time stamps were just in UTC?   Then other time 
zones involved in transactions would not ave to convert either.   I will speak 
with the Emperor.

DF


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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 82, Issue 24

2013-08-28 Thread Finkleman, Dave
As most know, I have been vetted for the workshop but cannot attend.   Anyone 
of like mind and interest but in proximity to Geneva might be nominated to 
replace me.   I believe that I can do that under whatever amorphous authority I 
have in ISO.   Would anyone on this list wish to do that?   

DF

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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 72, Issue 1

2012-11-05 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Normalizing and fitting arbitrary curves to unqualified data is
meaningless.I wonder how this is related to the temporal diversity
of the heights of the pyramids of Kufu, Menkare, and Josher?This was
also related to climate (Nile flooding or not) and economy (resources
available after squandering on monuments and wars).   It would be more
credible if they started from a meaningful hypothesis and then
determined how well the observations fit.I am curve fitting to
prices on the lunch menu in order to determine whether global warming
will influence my choice.

DF

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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 72, Issue 1

2012-11-05 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Fool that I am, I was not challenging the statistical analysis, only the
physical basis for the curve fits.   I am sure that the marginalization
and mathematics are sound and that the correlations are valid.   The
causal conjectures are understandably arguable.   I know that I should
never have taken the bait.

DF

-Original Message-
From: Poul-Henning Kamp [mailto:p...@phk.freebsd.dk] 
Sent: Monday, November 05, 2012 12:01 PM
To: Leap Second Discussion List; Finkleman, Dave
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 72, Issue 1


In message 3b33e89c51d2de44be2f0c757c656c880d56e...@mail02.stk.com,
Finklema n, Dave writes:

Normalizing and fitting arbitrary curves to unqualified data is 
meaningless.

Just before you make a fool of yourself in public: Tamino is probably
one of the sharpest minds out there when it comes to proper use of
statistics, and he has the track record to prove it.

-- 
Poul-Henning Kamp   | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20
p...@freebsd.org | TCP/IP since RFC 956
FreeBSD committer   | BSD since 4.3-tahoe
Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by
incompetence.
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 71, Issue 4

2012-09-04 Thread Finkleman, Dave

With respect to Warner's statement about how robust leap seconds are,
robust with respect to what application?   IMO, the scheme is robust
for those whose missions depend on Earth sync.   It is not robust for
those with at best casual interest and whose missions are hardly
affected by leap second implementation anomalies.

DF
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[LEAPSECS] Derecho vs Leap Second

2012-07-18 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Can someone please decipher this for me.  With great difficulty, I read
the article in German.  The blog with slightly less difficulty even
though it was in sysadminese.  What is the issue with two parallel time
systems in LINUX?   More to the point, would anything but leap second
insertion have provoked the issues experienced?  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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[LEAPSECS] Predictable Horizon and Uncertainty

2012-07-18 Thread Finkleman, Dave
The horizon of predictability reappears frequently in these discussions.
That it is arguable leads me to suggest that some authoritative source
distribute through IERS a reputable estimate and its uncertainty.
Statistics of past events (admittedly a small sample) appear to be 3.5
years with an uncertainty somewhere between six months and a year.  This
would at least allow a window within which one should prepare and
exercise.

I am sure that I am repeating something that was discussed before I
became a subscriber.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 63, Issue 15

2012-01-07 Thread Finkleman, Dave
However, 9 times out of 10 chaos fails to materialize, because people
tend to value a functioning society over the much predicted
alternative.

Well said, PHK.   

We will receive on Monday (I hope) from ISO TC37 an expert and
attributable statement that if the time scale changes as recommended, it
cannot retain the term UTC.   I am diligently seeking to submit this for
record or in person at the Radio Assembly and WRC.   Incidentally, the
terminological authority is Danish and perhaps not far from PHK.  

Hanne Erdman Thomsen [het@cbs.dk]



Dave Finkleman
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Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 61, Issue 15

2011-12-31 Thread Finkleman, Dave

The response takes more than an email.  Read our AAS paper delivered in
Toronto in August 2010.  I don't remember the number, but Google will
work.  There is a long matrix of impacts, most of which have nothing to
do with looking for things in the sky.  I am not an astronomer nor is my
colleague John Seago, a strong presence in the debate.  

Taking advantage of posting something, the national positions on this
issue are political, not technical positions.  The US Department of
State represents the Administration, which is not the same as
representing the country or the people.  Although the US DoS must
convene Industrial Technical Advisory Committees (ITAC), these have
little influence.  The support teams convened to help the designated DoS
representative on an international policy matter are overwhelmingly from
government agencies.  It is ironic that most of the rationale offered in
this digest over many years was rejected by the US DoS delegation as
non-technical.

The situation in China is without much doubt political, not technical;
as it was before China changed its mind. 


Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 61, Issue 12

2011-12-30 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Dealing with China through ISO developing space system standards, I
conjecture that their motivation is to deprecate rest-of-world
capabilities.  China implemented modern technology very recently
relative to the rest of the world.  They would suffer much less than we
would, if at all.  I am certain that their motivation is greatest
disadvantage to others with acceptable consequences for themselves.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 60, Issue 26

2011-11-24 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Will the Proceedings be available for exposure to Radio Assembly and
Radio Conference participants?   In other words, within the next month
or so?   It was hard to decide between meetings in France and going to
Exton again.  Given the outcome, I probably should have gone to Exton!

BTW:  All three forms of the Proceedings cost $120.00.   One would think
that a CD ROM would be less expensive than a hard bound volume, but I
guess not.  Perhaps they might offer both a the one price?

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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[LEAPSECS] ITU

2011-11-02 Thread Finkleman, Dave
I keep touch with the Department of State (DoS) delegation to the ITU.
They appointed Benson to create the US position, so we know what that
is.  However, the information DoS has distributed includes the fact that
ITU scope and responsibilities are under pressure.  ITU is attempting to
expand its scope to cyber security.  There is much resistance, some of
which manifests itself in recommendations to reduce ITU scope rather
than increase it.  Whether ITU should own UTC has been batted around
outside of our concerns.Perhaps there is too much of greater
significance on the plate for the WRC, and UTC will not be able to drain
much deliberative energy.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 57, Issue 9- Wikipedia UTC Citation

2011-08-15 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Wikipedia entries can be changed by anyone.  I recommend that someone
correct the recent modification that clouds the origin of the term UTC.
They wait to see what happens.

My experience follows.  For nearly 10 years, AGI prepared and donated to
NORAD continuous animations for NORAD Tracks Santa.  About five years
ago Google and Booz-Allen-Hamilton intimidated NORAD to use them
instead, gaining exposure and advertising.  The NORAD Tracks Santa
Wikipedia page said that AGI had withdrawn.  I changed it.  30 minutes
later it was back the way it was.  I changed it again.  This went on
throughout the Christmas season of 2009.   By design and policy,
contributions to Wikipedia pages are unconstrained except for immoral or
abusive inputs.  

Perhaps someone can write a script that monitors the relevant passage
and replaces it with the truth every time it changes.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 56, Issue 1

2011-07-08 Thread Finkleman, Dave
SG7 declared inputs from leapsecond.com participants non-technical.
Determining the strength of opinion is technical?   Since when was
science governed by opinion?   Forever?

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.

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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 53, Issue 12

2011-04-13 Thread Finkleman, Dave
I agree very much with Poul-Henning.  If everyone could agree on a well
defined time scale, properly qualified, it doesn't matter what that is.
In my life there have always been people who will not collaborate or
compromise for reasons incomprehensible to me.  I will re-read some of
my John Nash books so that I can seek a non-zero sum optimization.
(The best one yet is A Beautiful Math: John Nash, Game Theory, and the
Modern Quest for a Code of Nature, by Tom Siegfried.)

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 


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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 53, Issue 11

2011-04-12 Thread Finkleman, Dave
To answer tvb's question, there are contracts that require UTC
explicitly.  There is no qualification as to what UTC is or which
version to use if there are several!!!  Relatively recent US statute
mandates UTC as the civil time scale.  The only qualification is that
whatever DoD and USNO think UTC should be is what it is.  I don't have
any specific contract examples at hand, but I am sure that there are
many.

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 53, Issue 8

2011-04-11 Thread Finkleman, Dave
We keep talking about the ITU as though it were a coherent decision
making enterprise.  After my visit there last week, I am convinced that
it is not.  The decisions are made by Working Parties and Study Groups
and confirmed by Radio Assemblies leading to final approval by the WRC.
The ITU only administers these bodies.  As an entity, it has no
authority or ability to influence outcomes.  The ITU is furniture.
The influence comes from the butts in the seats.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.
*
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 53, Issue 5

2011-04-10 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Having very recently visited the ITU in Geneva, I am now absolutely
certain that it is a purely administrative body with no power or desire
to participate materially in technical matters and no technical
capability to contribute.   The organization's definition of due
diligence is to run meetings, maintain registries, and execute the
recommendation process.   The lack of due diligence rests strongly with
Study Groups and Working Parties.  There is, in my opinion, no way to
affect outcomes by working through the ITU directly.  

To me this means working with and helping delegations from Canada, the
UK, etc., that have objected to the proposed change.  Since few of the
ITU member countries serve on SG7, we might also try to educate other
delegations that can still contribute to the final judgement.

I asked how stakeholders could challenge SG leadership assertion that
concerns were not technical and therefore not eligible for
consideration.  The answer was that there is no way, and, as I reported,
an SG chairman can forward anything after two failures to achieve
consensus.  

This is the equivalent of the Polish Sejm in the early 16th century.
The wealthy Magnates established Szlachta, the privilege of liberum
veto.  The king was selected generally from outside Poland.  His
privileges were severely limited, and the monarchy was not hereditary.
Any Magnate could alone diminish the common good with overpowering,
peremptory veto.  


Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.
-Original Message-

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[LEAPSECS] Visit to ITU-R

2011-04-08 Thread Finkleman, Dave
First, I could not retrieve the previous versions of 460-xx.  No one I
met with knew how to do that!

I met with Mr. Yvon Henri, Chief, Space Services Department, ITU-R, and
Venkatsubramanian Srivanasan, who works for him.  They have nothing to
do with UTC.  They maintain Vol 1 of the Radio Regulations.  They are
familiar with the SG/WG processes.  With regard to 460-6 moving forward
to the Radio Assembly, they state that this is normal.  They claim that
consensus is rarely achieved in Study Groups and that Chairman often
send on matters that lack consensus.  They assert that the reason is
that most failures to reach consensus are political.  One or more
disadvantaged countries tries to impede those that are more advanced.
I asked why there were study groups if they had no power to deprecate
unworthy items.  They referred me to Colin Langtry, who seems to
administer all study groups.  I did not have time for that.  Lest my
visit not have been productive, they gave me a lapel pin!  Fortunately,
this was not the purpose of my trip to Geneva.

I just received editors' feedback on the American Scientist article.  I
was overseas and unable to send copies to those who requested them.  Now
I am able.  Please resend your requests to my work email
(dfinile...@agi.com)  so that I can attach a copy in response to each
email.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.
-Original Message-
From: leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com
[mailto:leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com] On Behalf Of
leapsecs-requ...@leapsecond.com
Sent: Friday, April 08, 2011 10:01 AM
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Subject: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 53, Issue 2

Send LEAPSECS mailing list submissions to
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When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific
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Today's Topics:

   1. ACM article (Steve Allen)
   2. rewriting history of Torino Colloquium (Steve Allen)
   3. Re: rewriting history of Torino Colloquium (Poul-Henning Kamp)
   4. Re: rewriting history of Torino Colloquium (Rob Seaman)
   5. Re: rewriting history of Torino Colloquium (Poul-Henning Kamp)


--

Message: 1
Date: Thu, 7 Apr 2011 09:56:48 -0700
From: Steve Allen s...@ucolick.org
Subject: [LEAPSECS] ACM article
To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID: 20110407165648.gr26...@ucolick.org
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii

PHK's article seems to be here

http://queue.acm.org/detail.cfm?id=1967009

--
Steve Allen s...@ucolick.orgWGS-84
(GPS)
UCO/Lick Observatory--ISB   Natural Sciences II, Room 165Lat
+36.99855
1156 High StreetVoice: +1 831 459 3046   Lng
-122.06015
Santa Cruz, CA 95064http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/ Hgt +250 m


--

Message: 2
Date: Thu, 7 Apr 2011 18:49:44 -0700
From: Steve Allen s...@ucolick.org
Subject: [LEAPSECS] rewriting history of Torino Colloquium
To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID: 20110408014944.ga10...@ucolick.org
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii

When the ITU-R held its colloquium in Torino in 2003 the Italian
institute was the IEN.  Originally the proceedings were online at

http://www.ien.it/luc/cesio/itu/ITU.shtml

During subsequent reorganizations that became the INRIM.  Until
recently they had continued to host the proceedings of the 2003
colloquium at this URL

http://www.inrim.it/luc/cesio/itu/ITU.shtml

I was recently informed that this link is now dead.
Much more to my surprise I find that there is no trace of it
in the Internet Archive's wayback machine.

Fortunately the wayback machine had crawled the original website,
and during at least some of the many crawls the content was available.

I suggest that anyone who wants not to forget history should grab
a copy of the proceedings.

--
Steve Allen s...@ucolick.orgWGS-84
(GPS)
UCO/Lick Observatory--ISB   Natural Sciences II, Room 165Lat
+36.99855
1156 High StreetVoice: +1 831 459 3046   Lng
-122.06015
Santa Cruz, CA 95064http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/ Hgt +250 m


--

Message: 3
Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2011 08:52:16 +
From: Poul-Henning Kamp p...@phk.freebsd.dk
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] rewriting history of Torino Colloquium
To: 

[LEAPSECS] Leap Second Article in American Scientist

2011-03-31 Thread Finkleman, Dave
I am glad that the discussion picked up again.  I think I missed
precursors to the current thread.

American Scientist has accepted for publication an article by John
Seago, Ken Seidelmann, Steve Allen, Rob Seaman, and me.  The editors are
doing their thing so that we can come back at them by the end of April.
I/we would appreciate feedback from those who contribute to this
discussion group.  I can't promise that we could pet everyone's pet
rock, but it's better to have your criticism than to have challenges as
letters to the editor.

Recognize that the audience is technically capable but far from expert
in this matter.  The magazine circulation is 80,000, and the subjects
are diverse.  Although we managed to slip in forthcoming decision
points, the objective is education rather than spin for influence.

I don't know the best way to post the current draft or distribute it,
but I bet someone on the discussion will let me know.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 51, Issue 23

2011-02-07 Thread Finkleman, Dave
This discussion exposes the fact that we don't all have to work in the
same reference frame or time system - as long as we understand what we
are using and make it clear to users.   Orbit data transfer standards
developed by CCSDS and others require sufficient metadata that users can
reproduce your results with the same outcome and transform your data
into the time system and reference frame they wish to use.  Metadata
also includes characteristics of the geopotential model.  There is no
point in propagating to high order and degree initial information that
was created at low order or degree, for example.  Unfortunately, some
operators don't know what is inside the black box.  We accommodate this
by requiring the fields but not the real content.  If geopotential info
fields are filled with default characters, we know that this idiot
doesn't even know what he did and discount his input.   Lying is another
story.  However, there are institutional sanctions for providing false
information.  Like, you get cut off from everyone else's data. 

These lessons came hard.  For example, lack of gravitational metadata
led to low perigee events in Superbird 6, a Comsat.  The launch provider
included lunar gravitation and the on-orbit operator did not.  The
handover state provided by the launch agency did not lead to the desired
final orbit for the operator.  

With regard to what is significant and what is not.  If someone raised
the issue, then it must be significant to him.  If the others don't care
or it doesn't matter to them, it won't matter if they have the
additional information or greater precision.  I've said this before, We
don't create standards for people who don't need them.  We create
standards for those who do need them.  The don't cares usually don't
get a vote.  GRACE mission data is available in near real time for those
who worry about Earth tides and millimeters of ocean height!  (The units
are cm/sec^2, which are now called Gals -- for Galileo.)

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 51, Issue 24

2011-02-07 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Addressing all comments at once:

1.  I had a similar exchange with Yuri Davydov, then Deputy Director of
ROSKOSMOS, the Russian Space Agency.   His response to operators not
understanding their own operation was, Get smarter operators!  He is
correct.   Some day, when I have been retired from the Air Force a bit
longer, I will better qualify that exchange.  I retired in 1993.  It has
not been long enough.
2.  Whoever observed that ALL pertinent exchanges between collaborators
should be vetted in advance is right on the mark.  When time and
intellect allow, there should always be well coordinated Interface
Control Documents (ICD).  The standard message formats are very clearly
qualified to be guides for such negotiation.  However, they are an
expedient for communication among those who do almost never work with
each other -- for example, when two satellites that are uncoordinated
come too close to each other.   If you visit the SOCRATES page on our
website (http://www.centerforspace.com) you will see that this happens
hundreds of times each day.  (It's under Tools.)   

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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[LEAPSECS] Mean ... Orbits

2011-02-02 Thread Finkleman, Dave
I know that I'm getting in over my head, but the thread is sounding a
lot like statistical filtering, orbit determination, and tracking.  

Filtering is estimation into the future based on mathematically
redundant observations subject to minimizing a cost function.  Think
least squares.  (I just know that I am selling ice to the Eskimos.)  It
is finding the best fit to the observations of a hypothesis with free
parameters.  Smoothing is going backwards with the same process --
perhaps with an improved hypothesis from filtering. (Think, perhaps,
prolepsis.)  I am sure that many have applied these principles to
estimating the state of the Earth, where the state vector includes
things such as nutation and the deceleration of the Earth's rotation.
So much for teaching astronomers algebra.

Most such estimations are the outcome of series expansions of governing
independent variables, dependent variables, or similarity parameters.
Think Fourier series -- actually, Jacobi Polynomials, but who is keeping
track.  Think also of the moments of an assumed statistical
distribution.  The lowest order (DC component, if you will) is called
the mean.  In Fourier series, it would be the state averaged over the
period of the trigonometric functions.  For an assumed Gaussian, it is
really the Mean.  (If the statistics are Gaussian, the first two moments
specify the distribution completely.)  Otherwise, that is not really a
time averaged mean -- partly because the independent variable isn't
always time.  In optics expanded in Zernike Polynomials (a complete,
orthonormal series over the unit circle), it is called PISTON,
translating a lens back and forth.

The result in orbit determination is called the mean orbit, but that
doesn't imply that it is averaged over time.  It is usually the
Keplerian, two-body orbit, which is certainly time varying.  The second
order (linear terms) are called secular, or in optics tilt.   The
quadratic terms in optics are called focus (the cross product term is --
guess what -- astigmatism.)

Now that I've exposed my lack of understanding, the conclusion is that
the mean solar second is the outcome of a statistical estimation of
governing state variables fitted against observations.  Which means
that it is really not necessarily an average over time.

Now, attack!!!  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
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[LEAPSECS] American Scientist

2011-02-01 Thread Finkleman, Dave
I have been invited to write an article on this subject for the
quarterly journal of Sigma Xi, American Scientist.   Someone read our
AAS paper and thought the subject would be appropriate for the diverse
technical community.  The style is that the report be understandable to
those with a solid technical background, neither experts nor laymen.

I welcome suggestions, and I will share authorship with all willing to
work on it.

BTW: The Islamic month begins with heliacal rising of the crescent Moon.
However, contrary to my warped recollection, the Islamic day cycle is
governed by the Sun.  However, there is still a difference between the
start of the Moslem day (sunset or Maghrib - which means west) and the
start of the Hebrew day (verifiable star sightings).   

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 51, Issue 4

2011-02-01 Thread Finkleman, Dave
As long as there is time, coordinating time with events will be
difficult.  The level at which things must be synchronized has descended
(or ascended) to less than nanoseconds.   It is an example of
Finkleman's Principle of Conservation of Consternation.   Many
alternatives discussed in this group are feasible and reasonable, but
none is a permanent solution.  There is no permanent solution.

Enough philosophy.   A new time scale for our purposes is a good idea.
But, who would realize and distribute it?  What changes would using it
entail?   I think we are stuck with what we've got, but it should be
molded to meet need, not convenience.

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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[LEAPSECS] Meeting with Wayne Whyte

2011-01-31 Thread Finkleman, Dave
I have convinced Wayne that a face to face meeting would clear the air.
I meet with him on Friday.  I would appreciate a few examples of
specific commercial or system unique software that would be deprecated
if leap seconds and their more precise companions were deleted.

BTW, the Moslem day begins at observable moon rise, which is different
than sunset.   Orthodox observers in several religions (Judiasm, Islam,
and others) are very concerned about precise definitions of these events
and timing of prayer intervals.   

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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[LEAPSECS] A slight digression.

2011-01-29 Thread Finkleman, Dave
First, two time scales, one civil and one technical, seems like a very good 
idea.  Any correlation between them need not be scientifically precise.   There 
is much literature on countries and religions with two or more calendars, some 
for ecclesiastical and some for commercial endeavors.  Why not?  
 
The digression.  With verifiable communcation among IAU principals, I requested 
an addendum to the minutes of the October SG7 meeting, recorded by Dr. Arias.   
The real tsunami is yet to arrive, but Committee 31, Ian Corbett, and others 
are on the warpath.   They are unwilling to acknowledge in any way the implicit 
(or explicit depending on your point of view) retraction of IAU endorsement of 
R460-6.   BIPM has invited Ken Seidelmann to write an article in a forthcoming 
issue of Metrologica.   I am sure that he will provide sound alternatives to 
Bob Nelson's article a few years ago.  I will be in Geneva in April, and I have 
requsted a meeting with ITU principals.  The ball is still rolling!
 
With regard to system engineering and the significance of knowing definitively 
what one needs to accomplish an essential task, I am delivering a paper at the 
USAF Ground Systems Architecture Workshop in LA in March that addresses this in 
a manner that reflects the exchanges on this thread.   The topic is exchanging 
data relevant to imminent conjunctions among satellites.  The (obvious) 
fundamental principle is that every element of data and metadata must be 
directly traceable to the well defined goal.   Co-equal, sufficient data and 
metadata must be inclulded or adequately referenced from widely available 
sources to allow the user to reproduce or verify the information as his level 
of confidence requires.  I confirm Rob's, Warner's, Poul-Henning's, and others' 
observations that few even think about what they are trying to accomplish and 
what they need to accomplish it -- or even if they need to do it at all.
 
df

.
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[LEAPSECS] Clarification and VM Synchronization

2011-01-14 Thread Finkleman, Dave
First, to clarify what I meant by UTC being inaccurate.  IMO, UTC is
inaccurate as a measure of Earth rotation.  It is precise in atomic
seconds, but it is inaccurate for astronomical purposes.  Accuracy is
restored to a significant degree by DUT.  It is precise to the degree
that contributing clocks can be synchronized (nanosecond level, or as
previous discussions conjecture, picosecond level).   I am as usual
insecure about this, and I would appreciate either confirmation or a
more suitable alternative.

Second, I am now fascinated by the implications of lack of synch among
virtual machines or real networks of distributed computers.  I watched
the YouTube video recommend in the previous thread.  I do not understand
this any way near to the others on this group, but I need to convince
non-technical authorities that this matters.  Any suggestions other than
a two by four with lots of momentum -- and maybe a protruding nail?

It is ironic that the shift in astrological signs made headlines this
morning while the significance of Earth rotation and orientation
parameters escapes notice.

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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**
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[LEAPSECS] Accuracy and Precision

2011-01-12 Thread Finkleman, Dave
These terms have appeared in recent exchanges. Keeping the distinction
clear is one of my continuing quests.  Perhaps I have it wrong, too.  I
am sure that someone will let me know.

Accuracy is how well a measurement compares to a standard.  If my one
meter measuring stick is not one meter long, every measurement I make
with it will be inaccurate.  

Precision is the variation among measurements.  Even if the measuring
stick is absolutely one meter long, every time I make a measurement, I
may misplace it a bit.  Each realization of the same measurement will be
different.  

In most cases, it is better to be imprecise but accurate than inaccurate
but precise.  In the former you can be reasonably sure that the
correct result is in there somewhere.  In the latter you can be
absolutely sure that your measurement is wrong.  A great simplification,
but it works with the layman.

Now I will take the leap of applying this to time.  (Pun intended.)

UTC provides precise time intervals for most practical purposes.
However, it is inaccurate as the difference between UTC and time scales
based on Earth rotation grows.  I know precisely at the end of 86,400 SI
seconds, that my perception of where I am in space is wrong.  

This is why we are members of the Precise Time and Time Interval
community -- not the Accurate Time and Time Interval Community, I think.


Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.


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[LEAPSECS] IAU Support for R460-6

2011-01-07 Thread Finkleman, Dave
There is no IAU support for the proposal to eliminate the leap second.
On the other hand, there is just not consensus one way or the other.
However, perceived IAU support was cited at the SG7 meeting in Geneva.
That misconception has been corrected, as reported from credible and
trustworthy sources.  For what it's worth.

There seems to be consensus that there are problems.  As is painfully
obvious, I am a newcomer.  Therefore, I ask if there has even been a
meeting/working group/etc. to address issues with UTC as opposed to
definitions and resolutions about what UTC should or should not be?  


Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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[LEAPSECS] Who do we develop standards for?

2011-01-01 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Recent postings illustrate that leap seconds don't matter to most
people.  It has also been pointed out that those for or against the leap
second are a countable few.  However, if it doesn't matter to most,
then it shouldn't matter if leap seconds (by some definition) remain.
There are almost always procedural work-arounds such as resynching
periodically.

I have learned in my ISO work that we develop standards for those to
whom the issue matters -- not for those who are unaffected or have no
stake.   In our AIAA paper we enumerate the criteria for a standard.
Working groups are appointed to develop specific standards.  Each member
must be a recognized expert.  Each must have a material stake in the
outcome.  Membership must be balanced among industry, academia/research,
and government at least to the extent that no single group can dominate.
Finally, a minimum number of positive votes is required even if there
are few votes.  Three positive and two abstentions among five involved
member bodies is not sufficient.  Five positive votes are required
minimum.  Five out of eight works, four out of seven doesn't.   Our
paper demonstrates that the ITU-R process fulfills virtually none of the
internationally accepted criteria for a standard.

If it is a fact that the preponderance of humanity doesn't care one way
or the other, standards are desireable for the countable few who do
care, who must exchange precise and accurate data, and on whom the
preponderance of humanity relies without realizing it.  

IMO when the misphasing of civil time and solar time becomes really
noticeable is not the issue.  The issue is precise synchronization that
is as effective as we can make it (not perfect) and as enduring as
necessary within the evolution of technology as we see it.  IMO, the
current scheme does not meet those criteria.  Proposals to deprecate the
leap second have no substance for judging effectiveness or suitability.


Dave Finkleman
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[LEAPSECS] Bob Nelson

2010-12-30 Thread Finkleman, Dave


Dave Finkleman
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Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
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Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
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-Original Message-
He has communicated with OSD and my employer castigating my campaign for
consensus that considers the consequences.  His communication is all
emotion and no substance.  He conjectures great damage to national
security and inevitable disaster if the leap second is retained.   He
includes Wayne Hanson, Wayne White, and Ron Beard in his thrust to kill
difference of opinion.   He claims that only a countable few disagree
with the recommendation.  He cites Steve Allen, John Seago, and Ken
Seidelmann among the countable few.   I hesitate to accuse Bob of
slander, but draw your own conclusions.   What course of action would
the group recommend?   Abandon the crusade to save myself?   

Dave Finkleman
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[LEAPSECS] Leap seconds, precision time, and technical progress

2010-12-26 Thread Finkleman, Dave
This old newcomer learns much from these exchanges.  I offer the
following observation.

Technology advances to exploit our ability to realize and measure time
precisely increases.  Use of spectrum with frequency, time, and code
division multiplexing is an example.  I realize that the time scale of
such applications need not have a uniform epoch in the distant past or
be tied to astronomical phenomena.  Perhaps you can think of better
examples that do.

Therefore, it is broadly important that precise time accrual be
synchronized and coordinated.  Astronomical phenomena are the most
fundamental vehicles for synchronization.  They belong to no one.  No
one can control them.  

A thought during an introspective interlude.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
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[LEAPSECS] DCF 77

2010-12-23 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Do any sources of precise, accrued time have a leap second warning bit
as DCF 77 does?Is the philosophy of leap second warning in DCF 77 a
good paradigm for helping implement the leap second broadly?

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
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Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 48, Issue 15

2010-12-17 Thread Finkleman, Dave
First, I apologize for my zealous haste in building my case.  The motion
of satellites in milliseconds is just meters, as has been noted.   With
undiminished zeal, I note that comparisons among orbit determination
techniques try to be precise to meters and that some notable forces,
such as Earth tides, are meter-scale effects.   So, I think my general
theme still holds.  Sorry.

With respect to ISO, it is not the only international standards body.
Often industrial and national authorities find ISO standards too
generic, offering little specific guidance.  This is sometimes true.  In
the US, AIAA standards provide the next level of specificity and are
promoted to international status through ISO when they are mature.

This is where the German DIN, UK BSI, and other national standards
organizations take over.  (BTW, the national organizations are the
foundational ISO members.)

Some, such as Japan, do insist on the letter of ISO standards.  We
accommodate this as best we can with the advice of Japanese stakeholders
to eliminate overly restrictive clauses.  Hopefully, what comes out is
feasible if the government mandates it.   

Some, as in the EU, form their own standards bodies that develop
standards where none exist and in most cases try to promote them through
ISO.  The EU body is the European Cooperation for Space Standardization
(ECSS).  ECSS examines ISO space related standards and often adopts them
as ECSS standards.

ISO has great influence, but it does not and should not mandate
anything.  Normative means the consensus way to do things so that
diverse users and providers can work together.   It does not imply a
mandate.  My view from the inside.

As best I can determine, there are not even normative processes for UTC.


Dave Finkleman
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Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
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Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 48, Issue 13

2010-12-16 Thread Finkleman, Dave
I learn something with every exchange.  Thanks.  This is what is in ISO
31-1, which is now ISO 8-3

 

time, time interval

 

durationt 

second  s 

The second is the duration of 9 192 631 770 periods of the radiation
corresponding to the transition between the two hyperfine levels of the
ground state of the caesium-133 atom   

 

Representations of time of day are defined in ISO 8601.

 

minute  min   1 min = 60 s

hour h 1 h = 60 min = 3 600 s

day   d 1 d = 24 h = 86 400 s

 

Other ISO standards, for example, Maritime Navigation, define the second
as 1/60th of a minute or 1/86,400 of a day, where a day is from sunrise
to sunrise, a solar day, or from a star passing the local meridian to
its return, a sidereal day.  There is ambiguity among ISO standards and
probably those of other organizations.  

 

As space operations grow more complex and the degree of understanding of
operators declines (some corollary of the Peter Principle), the
opportunity for confusion grows as precision in milliseconds or less
becomes more important.  A millisecond in Low Earth Orbit is a few
kilometers, and some satellites are regularly in closer conjunction than
that.  

 

Please let me know if this argument seems specious.  My involvement
manifests the confusion I have seen and experienced in astrodynamics.
It is true that education in that discipline exposes students to these
matters, but in one ear and out the other.   It is not as important
for them to remember as are the fundamentals of orbital mechanics.  

 

I think we need more widely vetted and easily accessible normative
definitions of the different kinds of seconds and time scales as well as
guidance (at least for satellite operators with little background) in
which to use for a given application and how to use them.  

 

I once had a similar exchange with Yuri Davidov, Deputy Head of
Roskosmos.  He said that we should get smarter operators.

 

Perhaps I am too much into this and not enough educated. I will not be
offended if you opine that my perceptions are incorrect.  

 

 

 

Dave Finkleman

Senior Scientist

Center for Space Standards and Innovation

Analytical Graphics, Inc.

7150 Campus Drive

Colorado Springs, CO 80920

 

Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780

Fax:  719-573-9079

 

Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.

 

-Original Message-
8601 is a problem.

 

If you mean their explanations of time scale, time point, time

axis etc -- well, these are indeed arcane, but they are just taken

from IEC 60 050. (Nowadays, ISO/IEC 80 000 is the international

standard for terminology regarding physical quantites. And the IAU

regulate their own astronomical time scales, of course.)

 

Michael Deckers.

 

 

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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 48, Issue 12

2010-12-15 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Many of your comments are addressed in AIAA-2010-8391, which Ken, John,
and I wrote for the Toronto AAS conference last August.  It is available
online, or interested parties can write me personally, and I will
provide copies.  AGI did not relinquish complete copy rights to AIAA or
AAS.

ISO 8601 is a problem.  So far I have not heard anything from ISO TC12,
which is responsible.  But I am diligent.  I will extract something from
them.  Their treatment of time is deficient and inconsistent.  I don't
know how this was coordinated either.  Most of their treatment of time
is just vetting almost every possible way of expressing the digits.  

I really like Duncan Steel's book, Marking Time.  It may not meet the
standards of time professionals, but it is readable and understandable.
Dennis and Ken provide a wealth of well referenced material as well.  

There are, of course, many time scales.  Our paper discusses this
briefly.  Which one uses depends on the application.   In my experience,
astrodynamics is the same.  Different force models, solution techniques,
and computational implementations.  Some better for some applications
than others.  None universally suitable for everything.  In that
discipline, we (CSSI) feel it important that one understand the
differences among the techniques so that different outcomes can be
explained and the best technique chosen by the user for his needs.  We
strongly believe that there should not be a universally mandated
approach.  The same for time scales, I think.

ISO is not a governmental organization.  It does not enforce and it
cannot mandate any of its standards.  The standards are developed
voluntarily by experts WITH A STAKE IN THE OUTCOME   and who
represent balance among industry, research, academia, and government.
ISO standards are not recommendations.  They are normative consensus.
In that regard, ITU has no normative or legal authority.  In fact, what
credibility ITU has in standards resides in ITU-T, not ITU-R!

BIPM, CIPM, etc. are pivotal.  They participate in JTCTG-1, which I
mentioned briefly.   I won't go into what JTCG-1 is in email, but it is
the evolved metrology community, composed of literally dozens of
stakeholder organizations.   

Enough for the moment.

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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[LEAPSECS] A consolidated approach.

2010-12-13 Thread Finkleman, Dave
I wisely avoided contributing the last few days' debate.  Ken
Seidelmann, John Seago, and I have been working to overcome the
deficiencies in the process used to formulate the new ITU-R
recommendation.  As we said in our paper last summer, the goals are to
assure that major stakeholders are included in consensus, to develop
normative guidance for accommodating leap seconds should they be
retained or work without them if they are deprecated, and to define in a
normative sense the different flavors of seconds, minutes, weeks, etc.
The guidance should include how to handle DUT greater than 0.9 seconds
and what the reasonable predictive time span should be for inserting
leap seconds.  These I have gleaned from your exchanges are your major
concerns and ideas.

How are we pursuing this?   We are using my authority within ISO.
Several ISO technical committees are affected:  ISO/TC154 (Processes,
data elements and documents in commerce, industry and administration,
ISO/TC12 Units and Measurement, and ISO TC37 Terminology as well as
JTC-1.The terminology folks are already working on whether a time
scale unconnected with astronomical events should include the term
universal.   

I bring this to your attention to solicit your participation in
resolving this long-standing issue.   There will be meetings in various
places, most often in Geneva.   

Changing the subject, the comments on geodetic references are very
relevant.  There is nothing like the leap second issue, but WGS-84 is
not used world-wide.  There are discrepancies in maps of Korea, for
instance.  WGS-84 is also out of date relative to the continuing
examination of the geopotential such as the GRACE mission.  

As you all know, Earth orientation and time are not independent.
Correlating EOP with real time observations in order to infer current
orbits precisely enough for assessing conjunctions among satellite is
very important.  



Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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[LEAPSECS] Leap Sec vs Y2K

2010-12-10 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Ken Seidelmann, John Seago, and I addressed this in our papers and in
the recent editorial in Space News.

The Y2K effort was necessary.  Everyone knew that we could not just
watch what might happen and catch up afterwards.  In the case of leap
seconds, no one knows what the real consequences might be if we changed,
and change is not necessary as it was for years that stopped at 99.   We
can just let things be as they have been for nearly 40 years.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.

-Original Message-
From: leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com
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leapsecs-requ...@leapsecond.com
Sent: Friday, December 10, 2010 10:01 AM
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Subject: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 48, Issue 2

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Today's Topics:

   1. Re: php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds? (p...@2038bug.com)
   2. Re: php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds? (Richard B. Langley)
   3. Re: php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds? (Paul Sheer)


--

Message: 1
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 16:21:43 +
From: p...@2038bug.com
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?
To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID:

1970411972-1291998043-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-11035931
7...@bda950.bisx.prod.on.blackberry

Content-Type: text/plain; charset=Windows-1252


WH-WH-Wht

Contractors spent millions of hours wading through hundreds of millions
of lines of code
adding missing century digits.

Thousands of Cobal programmers lost there jobs
after Y2K.

Every organisation that managed any kind of
computer system had to do testing to verify
that the systems would work through Y2K and
replace them otherwise.

My company managed such a system.

Were you living under a rock then

-paul



Sent from my BlackBerry? by Boost Mobile

-Original Message-
From: Gerard Ashton ashto...@comcast.net
Sender: leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 11:03:10 
To: Leap Second Discussion Listleapsecs@leapsecond.com
Reply-To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?

On 12/10/2010 10:15 AM, Peter Vince wrote:
 Hello Paul,

   I'd be interested if you have some examples of of Y2K bugs that
 were fixed before they became a problem.  In my very limited
 experience, I wasn't affected by any, nor aware of them.

   Peter


 On 10 December 2010 01:55, Paul Sheerp...@2038bug.com  wrote:
 Everybody said y2k was going to break everything.  In the end, it was
a
 non-event :)

 It was a non-event BECAUSE the industry spent enormous $$ to fix all
the
 zillions of Y2K bugs in time.

 It was still a disaster from an expendature point of view.

 (Does anyone need to even explain this)

 -paul
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I worked for IBM at the time. Many older personal computers in use by 
staff were discarded because it would have been too difficult to teach 
all the staff the special tricks to keep them limping along when 2000 
arrived.

Gerry Ashton
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--

Message: 2
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 12:18:58 -0400
From: Richard B. Langley l...@unb.ca
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] php breaks if UTC has no leap seconds?
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID: 20101210121858.20027gdb2wlwb...@webmail.unb.ca
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; DelSp=Yes;
format=flowed

USNO predicts UT1-UTC. In Bulletin A  
http://maia.usno.navy.mil/ser7/ser7.dat, they predict daily values  
for a year in advance but only provide an error estimate up to 40 days  
in advance. Elsewhere http://maia.usno.navy.mil/ser7/deltat.preds,  
longer-term predictions are given; supposedly updated annually.

-- Richard Langley

Quoting Warner Losh i...@bsdimp.com:

 On 12/09/2010 17:35, Rob Seaman wrote:
 On Dec 9, 2010, at 3:53 PM, Steve Allen wrote:

 This is the first 

[LEAPSECS] Back to Basics

2010-11-03 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Recalibrating to get to the point.

1.  Universal Time is a set of time scales related to the mean diurnal
motion of the Sun.So defined in many places and first recommended by
the IAU in 1935.  Different flavors have been defined and redefined
since, but the connection with motion of the Sun is consistent and
essential.  

The IAU is the enduring authority.   So, it is not a matter of the
convenience of one sector relative to the other or any religious,
psychological, or biological matter.  It is a matter of definition.
Anything Universal by definition must be related to the mean motion of
the Sun. 
 
2.  UTC is an international time scale approximating Greenwich mean
solar time with the precision of the SI second and matching UT1 to
within one second.  (From Seidelmann with supporting references.)   It
was precipitated by adoption of the SI second based on the properties of
Cesium 133.  

3.  The ITU is constituted under the UN as a regulatory agency without
the force of law.  The relationship with ISO is collaborative, but ITU
recommendations do not carry the force of international standards unless
implemented by ISO under ISO rules and procedures.  ITU-R 460-x are not
normative international standards.  A normative standard can be
referenced in contracts as a binding requirement.  Furthermore, the ITU
relationship is through ITU-T, not ITU-R. 

These are the basis of our discussions.

My goal is not necessarily to save the leap second.  It is to assure
consistent definition and implementation of time intervals and time
scales for a broad range of applications.  UTC was conceived and
implemented to correlate with Earth rotation to a degree sufficient for
many processes time accrued in constant atomic seconds.  Without leap
seconds, it is no longer UTC.  We require guidance in implementing for
different purposes different degrees of correlation with Earth rotation
-- and mechanisms for providing timely information that is precise
enough for each element of that spectrum.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 47, Issue 12 - Clarification

2010-11-03 Thread Finkleman, Dave
The term normative has special meaning.  From Wikipedia:  In law, as
an academic discipline, the term normative is used to describe the way
something ought to be done according to a value position.   A normative
document (such as an ISO Standard) has greater credibility, if not
authority, than any other reference in a contract or law.  It has been
developed through an audited, collaborative consensus.  It is created
voluntarily to meet a demonstrated need.  It is specific and expressed
the same way in all instances.  Since there is no normative definition
of UTC, every instance in a contract, law, or similar vehicle should be
accompanied by the definition intended.  This is a major flaw of the US
law of 2007 that mandated UTC as the civil time scale in the US.  It did
not say what UTC was, is, or will be, so it could be anything as long as
DoC and USNO agree.







Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.


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[LEAPSECS] Degrees of Accommodating Time Based on Earth Rotation

2010-11-02 Thread Finkleman, Dave
A long flight was time to really read Ken Seidelmann's book and part of
Woolard and Clemence, Spherical Astronomy.  Subsequent exchanges with
Ken give me a new understanding.  (Probably an old understanding for the
rest of you.)

When we solve equations approximating physical processes, we are really
defining our own dynamical time scale.  Even with well characterized
initial conditions or observations and a well founded system of units,
the clock in our analysis does not tick at the same rate as those based
on real phenomena.  We must correlate time as perceived in our analyses
with the temporal relationships among objects in the universe.  For
Earth rotation, time zones are the most coarse correlation.  For time
measured in SI seconds, not related to external phenomena, leap seconds
are the next most precise.  Finally, DUT, is precise enough for most
astronomical and astrodynamic applications.  

It is a hierarchy each level of which is sufficient for a range of
applications.  Every time we solve dynamical equations, we are defining
a unique time scale and time interval based on things such as analytical
discretization and computational architecture.  

Comments?

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.

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[LEAPSECS] The good fight.

2010-10-26 Thread Finkleman, Dave
I hope I haven't screwed up the response protocol again.

We are trying to do what several have suggested, prepare for what might
be inevitable.  Naming ambiguity is a central issue.  

I have sent Rob a concept paper to be presented to ISO this week.  It
suggests collaboration among ITU-R, JCGM, IAU, ISO, and a couple of
other stakeholder bodies to consider hopefully more objectively the
actions necessary one way or the other.  

Perhaps Rob can figure out some way to distribute it without
constipating the exchanges.  

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 30

2010-09-23 Thread Finkleman, Dave
The sundial community is in the game. I think Precision Sundials, LLC,
is playing.  They have sundials with latitude!  The points that Rob
and others make about the cost of a change were included in the
editorial that Space News promised to publish.  



Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.

-Original Message-
From: leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com
[mailto:leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com] On Behalf Of
leapsecs-requ...@leapsecond.com
Sent: Thursday, September 23, 2010 10:01 AM
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Subject: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 30

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Today's Topics:

   1. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 29 (Finkleman, Dave)


--

Message: 1
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 12:18:56 -0400
From: Finkleman, Dave dfinkle...@agi.com
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 29
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID: 3b33e89c51d2de44be2f0c757c656c880963b...@mail02.stk.com
Content-Type: text/plain;   charset=US-ASCII

I've been traveling and unable to respond to postings.  Sorry.

I submitted exhaustive comments to the Wayne's.   I just codified what I
said during the 16 Aug open conference call.  Surprisingly, they
considered them all and even incorporated some.  Perhaps this is a small
step forward.  I played my ISO TC20/SC14 card.  

Space News also promised to published very soon an editorial, Time is
money that Ken Seidelmann, John Seago, and I wrote.  I doubt that
attaching it to this email would work, but I will send it to those who
would like a copy.  We stressed for that community the unknown costs and
the confusion if the name were not changed. 

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
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-Original Message-
From: leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com
[mailto:leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com] On Behalf Of
leapsecs-requ...@leapsecond.com
Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 10:01 AM
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Subject: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 29

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Today's Topics:

   1. Re: comments on DRR TF.460-6 (Michael Sokolov)
   2. Re: comments on DRR TF.460-6 (M. Warner Losh)
   3. Re: comments on DRR TF.460-6 (Steve Allen)
   4. Re: comments on DRR TF.460-6 (Poul-Henning Kamp)
   5. Re: comments on DRR TF.460-6 (Robert Seaman)
   6. Re: comments on DRR TF.460-6 (Paul Sheer)


--

Message: 1
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2010 15:42:57 GMT
From: msoko...@ivan.harhan.org (Michael Sokolov)
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] comments on DRR TF.460-6
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID: 1009211542.aa10...@ivan.harhan.org

Tony Finch d...@dotat.at wrote:

 Are there any requirements for mean solar time other than astronomy
and
 celectial navigation?

Yes: religion, philosophy and moral justice.

MS


--

Message: 2
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2010 11:15:21 -0600 (MDT)
From: M. Warner Losh i...@bsdimp.com
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] comments on DRR TF.460-6
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com, msoko...@ivan.harhan.org
Message-ID: 20100921.111521.460114267356660938@bsdimp.com
Content-Type: Text/Plain; charset=us-ascii

In message: 1009211542.aa10...@ivan.harhan.org
msoko...@ivan.harhan.org (Michael Sokolov) writes:
: Tony Finch d...@dotat.at wrote:
: 
:  Are there any requirements for mean solar time other than astronomy
and
:  celectial navigation?
: 
: Yes: religion, philosophy and moral justice.

I get the first two.  Leap seconds must die, a phrase I've used

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 11

2010-09-03 Thread Finkleman, Dave
Does someone capture and archive these amazing discussions?  Pardon
silly questions from a newcomer.

This kind of knowledgeable exchange is what the ITU is missing.  There
are sound technical reasons for retaining or dispensing with the leap
second.  They need to be exposed, and the proponent of each should
consider what others would have to do in order to accommodate an
alternative.  This discussion thread does that but only to a small
audience of geeks.  

To reveal my bias, if the situation is this arguable, why change
anything?  We conjecture that whatever the cost or inconvenience of
living with the leap second, the costs and difficulties of deprecating
the leap second might be greater.  It is most a matter of who pays the
bill.

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.
-Original Message-
From: leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com
[mailto:leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com] On Behalf Of
leapsecs-requ...@leapsecond.com
Sent: Friday, September 03, 2010 1:01 PM
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Subject: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 11

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Today's Topics:

   1. Re: h2g2 (Nero Imhard)
   2. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (Tony Finch)
   3. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (Tony Finch)
   4. Re: h2g2 (M. Warner Losh)
   5. Re: h2g2 (Michael Sokolov)
   6. Re: h2g2 (Ian Batten)
   7. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (Poul-Henning Kamp)
   8. Re: h2g2 (Paul Sheer)


--

Message: 1
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 19:37:37 +0200
From: Nero Imhard n...@pipe.nl
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] h2g2
To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID: 67efec27-33c2-4d35-a48f-f7be2ed7d...@pipe.nl
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii


On 2010-09-03, at 15:56, p...@2038bug.com wrote:

 on the SAME time.  Nobody cares here that solar time and civil time
 are 43 minutes off. 
 
 *I* care 

Warner seems to be missing (or ignoring?) the point.

The difference doesn't matter, the fact that the difference is constant
does.

N



--

Message: 2
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 18:49:29 +0100
From: Tony Finch d...@dotat.at
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1
To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID:
alpine.lsu.2.00.1009031840050.31...@hermes-1.csi.cam.ac.uk
Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII

On Fri, 3 Sep 2010, Rob Seaman wrote:
 On Sep 3, 2010, at 2:18 AM, Tony Finch wrote:

  If you are syncing to what is now called GMT you are syncing to
UTC
  because they are now in practice exact synonyms.

 And this is precisely what the ITU is planning to break.

I'm not sure that's true. The only de jure definition of GMT is civil
time in the UK in winter. The British government and its agencies
currently implement GMT as equivalent to UTC. If the ITU change the
definition of GMT, and if the British government continues to follow ITU
recommendations and to disregard the historical astronomical meaning of
GMT, then the equivalence will continue.

Tony.
-- 
f.anthony.n.finch  d...@dotat.at  http://dotat.at/
HUMBER THAMES DOVER WIGHT PORTLAND: NORTH BACKING WEST OR NORTHWEST, 5
TO 7,
DECREASING 4 OR 5, OCCASIONALLY 6 LATER IN HUMBER AND THAMES. MODERATE
OR
ROUGH. RAIN THEN FAIR. GOOD.


--

Message: 3
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 19:06:34 +0100
From: Tony Finch d...@dotat.at
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1
To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID:
alpine.lsu.2.00.1009031853220.31...@hermes-1.csi.cam.ac.uk
Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII

On Fri, 3 Sep 2010, Zefram wrote:

 Tony Finch wrote:
 As we have seen there are a lot of intricate
 details whose necessity people can legitimately disagree about and no
way
 to determine an official consensus. Which is why I say that
astronomical
 GMT doesn't exist.

 Interesting argument.  I disagree with your central point: I don't
 think an official realisation of GMT is required in order for GMT to
 meaningfully exist.

Note that in the above I'm talking about astronomical GMT. There is an
official realisation of legal GMT, and it is UTC. If you create a new
astronomical 

Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 3

2010-09-02 Thread Finkleman, Dave
I believe that no one is advocating UT1 for civil time scales.  

I have discovered that UTC is the statutory time scale for the United
States but without qualification.  In other words, if UTC changes and is
still called UTC, the new definition would be the statutory requirement.
Every process and system developed for the previous definition would be
illegal.  Conversely, it UTC were changed but given a different name,
the statutes would be of no effect.  We would either need a new law or
there would be no legally established civil time scale.  

The law does state that the change has to be agreed to by the Department
of Commerce and the USNO.  Even if the ITU changes UTC, it is still
possible that designated US authorities could choose to remain with the
old UTC.

This is a very complex legal, sociological, and religious matter.
Perhaps a technical matter as well, but the other aspects may be more
important.

Dave Finkleman
Senior Scientist
Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Analytical Graphics, Inc.
7150 Campus Drive
Colorado Springs, CO 80920
 
Phone:  719-510-8282 or 719-321-4780
Fax:  719-573-9079
 
Discover CSSI data downloads, technical webinars, publications, and
outreach events at www.CenterForSpace.com.

-Original Message-
From: leapsecs-boun...@leapsecond.com
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Sent: Thursday, September 02, 2010 1:29 PM
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Subject: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 3

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Today's Topics:

   1. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (M. Warner Losh)
   2. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (Richard Langley)
   3. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (Poul-Henning Kamp)
   4. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (Rob Seaman)
   5. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (Poul-Henning Kamp)
   6. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (Rob Seaman)
   7. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (Ian Batten)
   8. Re: LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1 (Poul-Henning Kamp)


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Message: 1
Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2010 12:49:24 -0600 (MDT)
From: M. Warner Losh i...@bsdimp.com
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1
To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com, s...@ucolick.org
Message-ID: 20100902.124924.244264502706473427@bsdimp.com
Content-Type: Text/Plain; charset=us-ascii

In message: 20100902183636.gb13...@ucolick.org
Steve Allen s...@ucolick.org writes:
: On Thu 2010-09-02T19:26:03 +0100, Ian Batten hath writ:
:  It would be interesting to produce a list of countries where legal
:  time is not UTC, to see what the divide would look like.  Wikipedia
:  claims Belgium, Canada and Eire: for extra fun, I bet most consumers
:  of time signals in Belgium use DCF77 or TDF, which are clearly in
UTC
:  land, rather than MSF.
: 
: IANL, but based on a few documents I've seen
: 
: Canadian standard time is provincial, not federal.
: Quebec adopted UTC on 2007-01-01, and the others have not.
: 
: Venezuela standard time is based on the Greenwich meridian,
: whatever that means ...
: 
: If that issue were pressed to the courts it would be very interesting
: to see the results of the cases in each country especially in the
: light of the shifts of the longitude origin during the last 60 years,
: the first 3 of which are here
: http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/leapsecs/BIHAR1968.JPG

I'd wager that UTC, whatever its realization, would likely trump any
locally written laws.  After all, UTC has been a widely accepted
approximation of the local laws that's attained the force of law
through repetitive use (how many real-time realizations of UT1 are
propagated, in comparison to UTC).  So underlying technical changes to
UTC may not change that.  It would take a long, and complicated, legal
argument to show that UT1 is what should be used (even though nobody
knows what it is, day to day).  Given the current miss-mash of legal
rulings around software, I'd guess that this wouldn't be a clear cut
ruling that people in this group have suggested.

Warner


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Message: 2
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 15:42:31 -0300
From: Richard Langley l...@unb.ca
Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 45, Issue 1
To: Leap Second Discussion List leapsecs@leapsecond.com
Message-ID: c5cf7eae-4213-4498-833c-895a0a73e...@unb.ca
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; format=flowed; delsp=yes

Can't speak for the other Canadian provinces and territories, but the  
official