Re: ESC tendering policy changes ...

2023-04-21 Thread Dr. David Alan Gilbert
* Michael Meeks (michael.me...@collabora.com) wrote:
> Hi there,
> 
> > * ESC tender project proposal process (Thorsten)
> >    + proposal would be: (Thorsten)
> >      + share the draft in public: see
> > https://nextcloud.documentfoundation.org/s/YprpsFP45z7a7p3
> 

.

> + the unnecessary lengths we go to exclude people: the three
>   years is egregiously punitive - particularly in light of
>   the forward looking Declaration of Potential Conflict; lets
>   remove it. The future matters, for future tendering, not
>   the past.

As someone who has very recently left a large relevant company,
the other problem is that in a large company there are people who
are on entirely different projects with no overlap with TDF stuff.
Excluding ~300k people seems a little exessive when a few 10s of them
may be relevant.

Dave



> + the effort we go to to exclude people - when the output of
>   this is just good advice for the board to act on is staggering.
> 
> + the balance seems very substantially wrong in terms
>   of preserving our statutory meritocracy & efficiency
> 
>   + it is not worth sacrificing these to this extent to
> try to solve every possible concern someone could
> raise: there is already significant ongoing risk of people
> using such spurious concerns to unbalance our governance.
> 
> + Effort Estimate & exclusion is silly:
> 
> + excluding the few non-conflicted experts in the
>   space - who are vital to review the code is totally
>   counter-productive.
> 
> + if someone is not going to tender, and is not
>   affiliated - just assessing the estimate
>   should not exclude them from further process -
> such as eg. seeing if it was delivered properly.
> 
>   + it is very unclear what rational can be used to
> add a whole extra layer of CoI here.
> 
>   + the pool of skilled people here in any specific
> area is small.
> 
> + There are also many deeply wrong ideas embedded in
>   this idea of an accurate effort estimate.
> 
> wrong premise 1. that effort is easy to estimate - for
>extreme accuracy it takes a significant %age
>  of the time to do the job.
> 
> + such estimates are best done by 2x
>   skilled people, with a range of
>   best/likely/worst triple-point
>   estimates, breaking down the problem
>   etc.
> 
>   + even so - fixed-priced projects bankrupt
> skilled consultancies in all industries,
> even non-innovative traditional ones eg.
> building projects.
> 
> wrong premise 2. that all engineers have the same
>skill/experience level - there is no
>"person day" - this varies 10x depending
>on the person even among experienced engineers
>  cf. Fred Brooks, passim ad nauseum
> 
> wrong premise 3. that person days can be meaningfully linked
>to cost for a fixed-price project.
> 
> + pricing include risk of overruns
> 
> + pricing includes load factors & other
> concurrent bids, capacity, probability of
> other bids closing etc. this is a commercial
> nightmare; think Ryan-Air, over-selling the
> plane by a factor of two.
> 
> + payment risk as well as reputational risks of
>   contracting for TDF are -very- substantial.
> 
>the only sensible determination of price is
>by seeing the result of a public, contested
>  tendering. To pretend otherwise is silly.
> 
> 4. many tendered fixed-price tasks cost the people
>  executing on them rather more than they are bid
>  for - not even the companies with the experts
>  can get this perfectly right.
> 
> + worse - this quest for an accurate estimate seems to
> serve no very useful purpose. It is fine to have a
> hyper-accurate number, but if no-one will deliver it in
> that time - you wasted your time.
> 
> + I would suggest that we instead have a process that
>   ranks tasks, tenders them by priority top-down and then
> decides on reasonableness based on a number of ball-park
> estimates.
> 
>   + the wisdom of crowds can give us several rough
> ball-parks reasonably easily.
> 
> + and otherwise to completely ignore this step, or
> at least explain what extra purpose it tries to solve
> 
> + Obvious hostages to fortune:
> 
> "Only non-Conflicted Members can vote in the ESC."
> 
> + this needs to be profoundly (and redundantly)
>   specialized - in the 

ESC tendering policy changes ...

2023-04-21 Thread Michael Meeks

Hi there,


* ESC tender project proposal process (Thorsten)
   + proposal would be: (Thorsten)
     + share the draft in public: see 
https://nextcloud.documentfoundation.org/s/YprpsFP45z7a7p3


	I spend a little time reading and thinking about them a bit; here is 
where I got to with an hour or so:


Good:
+ as I understand it this allows all of the ESC members to rank
  proposals - while only those without a (very theoretical) COI
  can vote on that as a recommendation to the board.

+ if so - that should be made more explicit in the
  Ranking text: "all members of the ESC can rank
  proposals."

Easy to improve:

+ the staff should have a formal role in ensuring that the
  "Ordinary Procedure" takes place in a timely way, with
  announcements clearly signaled, community informed,
  deadlines well presented etc.

+ as many 'MUST's that involve deadlines should fall
  on paid staff not volunteer ESC members.

+ it is a typical, external misunderstanding that
  the ESC is some top-down command & control thing,
  better to think of it as a group of friends
  meeting up.

+ Staff voting

+ due to the excessive exclusion rules, paid TDF staff
  will inevitably become the overwhelmingly dominant
  voting block in the ESC on tendering.
+ as such - staff must be protected from fear of
  consequences of voting any given way in the ESC.
+ it should be made clear that they are there as
  individuals and volunteers; that they cannot be
  instructed to vote any given way, and that any
  retaliation in the management chain to the board
  will be treated severely.
+ possibly this belongs in a simple covenant from
  TDF - and not here, but - it is worth saying,
  and it goes without saying that my understanding is
  that all paid staff are treated like this anyway.

Easy typo:
+ s/Form Tendering/From Tendering/

'MUST' be improved:

+ the unnecessary lengths we go to exclude people: the three
  years is egregiously punitive - particularly in light of
  the forward looking Declaration of Potential Conflict; lets
  remove it. The future matters, for future tendering, not
  the past.

+ the effort we go to to exclude people - when the output of
  this is just good advice for the board to act on is staggering.

+ the balance seems very substantially wrong in terms
  of preserving our statutory meritocracy & efficiency

+ it is not worth sacrificing these to this extent to
  try to solve every possible concern someone could
  raise: there is already significant ongoing risk of people
  using such spurious concerns to unbalance our governance.

+ Effort Estimate & exclusion is silly:

+ excluding the few non-conflicted experts in the
  space - who are vital to review the code is totally
  counter-productive.

+ if someone is not going to tender, and is not
  affiliated - just assessing the estimate
  should not exclude them from further process -
  such as eg. seeing if it was delivered properly.

+ it is very unclear what rational can be used to
  add a whole extra layer of CoI here.

+ the pool of skilled people here in any specific
  area is small.

+ There are also many deeply wrong ideas embedded in
  this idea of an accurate effort estimate.

wrong premise 1. that effort is easy to estimate - for
   extreme accuracy it takes a significant %age
   of the time to do the job.

+ such estimates are best done by 2x
  skilled people, with a range of
  best/likely/worst triple-point
  estimates, breaking down the problem
  etc.

+ even so - fixed-priced projects bankrupt
  skilled consultancies in all industries,
  even non-innovative traditional ones eg.
  building projects.

wrong premise 2. that all engineers have the same
   skill/experience level - there is no
   "person day" - this varies 10x depending
   on the person even among experienced engineers
   cf. Fred Brooks, passim ad nauseum

wrong premise 3. that person days can be meaningfully linked
   to cost for a fixed-price project.

+ pricing include risk of overruns

+ pricing includes load factors & other
  concurrent bids, capacity, probability of
  other bids closing etc. this is a commercial
  nightmare; think Ryan-Air, over-selling the
  plane by a factor of two.

+ payment risk as well as