Re: [LINK] 'those' meetings

[Bernard Robertson-Dunn]

On 8/04/2014 10:23 AM, Jan Whitaker wrote:
> I dare say this video can apply to software system designers as well.
> I don't know whether to cry or laugh or both.

And this is a comedy, how?
I've been to many a meeting just like this.

It could also be a training video for understanding the Dunning Kruger 
Effect "... when people are incompetent in the strategies they adopt to 
achieve success and satisfaction, they suffer a dual burden: Not only do 
they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their 
incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it."

Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own 
Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments
Justin Kruger, David Dunning.
Psychology, 2009, 1, 30-46
http://www.holub.com/goodies/incompetence.pdf

-- 

Regards
brd

Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Sydney Australia
email: b...@iimetro.com.au
web:   www.drbrd.com
web:   www.problemsfirst.com
Blog:  www.problemsfirst.com/blog

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[LINK] 'those' meetings

[Jan Whitaker]

I dare say this video can apply to software system designers as well.
I don't know whether to cry or laugh or both.


>This video is called, "What Meetings Feel Like For Engineers".
>
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BKorP55Aqvg


Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
jw...@janwhitaker.com

Sooner or later, I hate to break it to you, you're gonna die, so how 
do you fill in the space between here and there? It's yours. Seize your space.
~Margaret Atwood, writer

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Re: [LINK] O/T: Civilization Collapse

[Ambrose Andrews]

And a specific critique:

http://climateandcapitalism.com/2014/03/31/nasa-collapse-study/

  -AA.


-- 
Ambrose Andrews
LPO box 8274 ANU Acton ACT 0200 Australia
mobile:+61_415544621
irc:{swiftirc|freenode|oftc}:znalo
skype:znalo7
xmpp:ambr...@jabber.fsfe.org|ambro...@member.fsf.org
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Re: [LINK] O/T: Civilization Collapse

[jore]

A very old topic. Three great things come to mind in response:

1) http://thoughtmaybe.com/arithmetic-population-and-energy/ (1992)
2) http://thoughtmaybe.com/derrick-jensen-endgame/ (2006)
3) http://thoughtmaybe.com/can-this-current-way-of-life-continue/ (2012)

Enjoy,
Jore


On 7/04/2014 8:12 PM, Stephen Loosley wrote:
>
>
> This recent study, financed by NASA, found that because of financial 
> inequality and environmental problems, the industrial world could suffer "a 
> precipitous collapse" within decades.
> http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/files/resources/motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf
>
> March 19, 2014
> Abstract
> There are widespread concerns that current trends in resource-use are 
> unsustainable, butpossibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial. 
> Collapses have occurred frequently inhistory, often followed by centuries of 
> economic, intellectual, and population decline. Manydiff   erent natural 
> and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses, but 
> ageneral explanation remains elusive.
>
> In this paper, we build a human population dynamics model by adding 
> accumulatedwealth and economic inequality to a predator-prey model of humans 
> and nature. The modelstructure, and simulated scenarios that o   er 
> significant implications, are explained. Fourequations describe the 
> evolution of Elites, Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The modelshows Economic 
> Stratication or Ecological Strain can independently lead to collapse, 
> inagreement with the historical record.
>
> The measure "Carrying Capacity" is developed and its estimation is shown to 
> be a practical means for early detection of a collapse. Mechanisms leading to 
> two types of collapses arediscussed. 
>
> The new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses 
> foundin history. 
>
> Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at 
> maximumcarrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a 
> sustainable level and ifresources are distributed equitably.
>
> Summary
>
> Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past 
> five thousand years, and they were frequently followed by centuries of 
> population and cultural decline and economic regression. Although many di 
>   fferent causes have been o  ffered to explain individual collapses, it 
> is still necessary to develop a more general explanation. In this paper we 
> attempt to build a mathematical model to explore the essential dynamics of 
> interaction between population and natural resources ...
>
>
> In sum, the results of our experiments indicate that either one of the two 
> features apparent in historical societal collapses (over-exploitation of 
> natural resources and strong economic stratication) can independently result 
> in a complete collapse. Given economic stratication, collapse is very 
> difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes, including major 
> reductions in inequality and population growth rates. Even in the absence of 
> economic stratication, collapse can still occur if depletion per capita is 
> too high. However, collapse can be avoidedand population can reach 
> equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a 
> sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable 
> fashion. In the upcoming generations of HANDY, we plan to develop several 
> extensions ...
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Re: [LINK] O/T: Civilization Collapse

[David Boxall]

Cheer up,

By some accounts, there'll probably be nobody around to be bothered by 
the collapse: 


Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow ...

On 7/04/2014 8:12 PM, Stephen Loosley wrote:
>
>
>
> This recent study, financed by NASA, found that because of financial 
> inequality and environmental problems, the industrial world could suffer “a 
> precipitous collapse” within decades.
> http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/files/resources/motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf
>
> March 19, 2014
> Abstract
> There are widespread concerns that current trends in resource-use are 
> unsustainable, butpossibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial. 
> Collapses have occurred frequently inhistory, often followed by centuries of 
> economic, intellectual, and population decline. Manydiff   erent natural 
> and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses, but 
> ageneral explanation remains elusive.
>
> In this paper, we build a human population dynamics model by adding 
> accumulatedwealth and economic inequality to a predator-prey model of humans 
> and nature. The modelstructure, and simulated scenarios that o   er 
> significant implications, are explained. Fourequations describe the 
> evolution of Elites, Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The modelshows Economic 
> Stratication or Ecological Strain can independently lead to collapse, 
> inagreement with the historical record.
>
> The measure "Carrying Capacity" is developed and its estimation is shown to 
> be a practical means for early detection of a collapse. Mechanisms leading to 
> two types of collapses arediscussed.
>
> The new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses 
> foundin history.
>
> Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at 
> maximumcarrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a 
> sustainable level and ifresources are distributed equitably.
>
> Summary
>
> Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past 
> five thousand years, and they were frequently followed by centuries of 
> population and cultural decline and economic regression. Although many di 
>   fferent causes have been o  ffered to explain individual collapses, it 
> is still necessary to develop a more general explanation. In this paper we 
> attempt to build a mathematical model to explore the essential dynamics of 
> interaction between population and natural resources ...
>
>
> In sum, the results of our experiments indicate that either one of the two 
> features apparent in historical societal collapses (over-exploitation of 
> natural resources and strong economic stratication) can independently result 
> in a complete collapse. Given economic stratication, collapse is very 
> difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes, including major 
> reductions in inequality and population growth rates. Even in the absence of 
> economic stratication, collapse can still occur if depletion per capita is 
> too high. However, collapse can be avoidedand population can reach 
> equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a 
> sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable 
> fashion. In the upcoming generations of HANDY, we plan to develop several 
> extensions ...
>   
-- 
David Boxall | "Cheer up" they said.
 | "Things could be worse."
http://david.boxall.id.au| So I cheered up and,
 | Sure enough, things got worse.
 |  --Murphy's musing
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[LINK] O/T: Civilization Collapse

[Stephen Loosley]

This recent study, financed by NASA, found that because of financial inequality 
and environmental problems, the industrial world could suffer “a precipitous 
collapse” within decades.
http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/files/resources/motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf

March 19, 2014
Abstract
There are widespread concerns that current trends in resource-use are 
unsustainable, butpossibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial. 
Collapses have occurred frequently inhistory, often followed by centuries of 
economic, intellectual, and population decline. Manydiff erent natural and 
social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses, but ageneral 
explanation remains elusive.

In this paper, we build a human population dynamics model by adding 
accumulatedwealth and economic inequality to a predator-prey model of humans 
and nature. The modelstructure, and simulated scenarios that o er significant 
implications, are explained. Fourequations describe the evolution of Elites, 
Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The modelshows Economic Stratication or 
Ecological Strain can independently lead to collapse, inagreement with the 
historical record.

The measure "Carrying Capacity" is developed and its estimation is shown to be 
a practical means for early detection of a collapse. Mechanisms leading to two 
types of collapses arediscussed. 

The new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses 
foundin history. 

Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at 
maximumcarrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a 
sustainable level and ifresources are distributed equitably.

Summary

Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past 
five thousand years, and they were frequently followed by centuries of 
population and cultural decline and economic regression. Although many di 
fferent causes have been o  ffered to explain individual collapses, it is 
still necessary to develop a more general explanation. In this paper we attempt 
to build a mathematical model to explore the essential dynamics of interaction 
between population and natural resources ...


In sum, the results of our experiments indicate that either one of the two 
features apparent in historical societal collapses (over-exploitation of 
natural resources and strong economic stratication) can independently result 
in a complete collapse. Given economic stratication, collapse is very 
difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes, including major 
reductions in inequality and population growth rates. Even in the absence of 
economic stratication, collapse can still occur if depletion per capita is too 
high. However, collapse can be avoidedand population can reach equilibrium if 
the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, 
and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion. In the 
upcoming generations of HANDY, we plan to develop several extensions ...
  
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