Re: [MARMAM] Publication: New mark-recap model and new Cook Inlet beluga demographic rate estimates

[Himes Boor, Gina]

Corrected link to the paper:
Himes Boor, G. K., McGuire, T. L., Warlick, A. J., Taylor, R. L., Converse, S. 
J., McClung, J. R., and Stephens, A. D., 2022, Estimating reproductive and 
juvenile survival rates when offspring ages are uncertain: a novel multievent 
mark-resight model with beluga whale case study: Methods in Ecology and 
Evolution

https://doi.org/10./2041-210X.14032

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[MARMAM] Publication: New mark-recap model and new Cook Inlet beluga demographic rate estimates

[Himes Boor, Gina]

My coauthors and I are pleased to announce the publication of our recent 
open-access paper describing a new multi-event mark-recapture model to estimate 
reproductive and survival rates for species that exhibit extended parental care 
(e.g., belugas, dolphins, manatees) and for which offspring age is uncertain. 
We also provide the first robust estimates of the reproductive and juvenile 
survival rates of the endangered beluga whale population that resides in Cook 
Inlet, Alaska, USA.

Citation:
Himes Boor, G. K., McGuire, T. L., Warlick, A. J., Taylor, R. L., Converse, S. 
J., McClung, J. R., and Stephens, A. D., 2022, Estimating reproductive and 
juvenile survival rates when offspring ages are uncertain: a novel multievent 
mark-resight model with beluga whale case study: Methods in Ecology and 
Evolution, 
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10./2041-210X.14 
[nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com]032

Abstract:

  1.  Understanding the survival and reproductive rates of a population is 
critical to determining its long-term dynamics and viability. Mark-resight 
models are often used to estimate these demographic rates, but estimation of 
survival and reproductive rates is challenging, especially for wide-ranging, 
patchily distributed, or cryptic species. In particular, existing mark-resight 
models cannot accommodate data from populations in which offspring remain with 
parents for multiple years, are not always detected, and cannot be aged with 
certainty.
  2.  Here we describe a Bayesian multievent mark-resight modelling framework 
that uses all available adult and adult-offspring sightings (including 
sightings with older offspring of uncertain age) to estimate reproductive rates 
and survival rates of adults and juveniles. We extend existing multievent 
mark-resight models that typically only incorporate adult breeding state 
uncertainty by additionally accounting for age uncertainty in unmarked 
offspring and uncertainty in the duration of the mother-offspring association. 
We describe our model in general terms and with a simple illustrative example, 
then apply it in a more complex empirical setting using thirteen years of 
photo-ID data from a critically endangered population of beluga whales 
(Delphinapterus leucas). We evaluated model performance using simulated data 
under a range of sample sizes, and adult and offspring detection rates.
  3.  Applying our model to the beluga data yielded precise estimates for all 
demographic rates of interest despite substantial uncertainty in calf ages, 
including non-breeder survival and reproductive rates lower than that estimated 
for other beluga populations. Simulations suggested our model yields 
asymptotically unbiased parameter estimates with good precision and low bias 
even with moderate sample sizes and detection rates.
  4.  This work represents an important new development in multievent 
mark-resight modeling, allowing estimation of reproductive and juvenile 
survival rates for populations with extended adult - offspring associations and 
uncertain offspring ages (e.g., some marine mammals, elephants, bears, great 
apes, bats, and birds). Our model facilitated estimation of robust demographic 
rates for an endangered beluga population that were previously inestimable 
(e.g., non-breeder and juvenile survival, reproductive rate) and that will 
yield new insights into this population's continued decline.


Gina K. Himes Boor, PhD
(she/her/hers)
Assistant Research Professor
Ecology Department
Montana State University
AJMJ 221B
406-580-1368



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