[Marxism] Mark Blyth, who had been forecasting Trumps' election since May 2015 on 'Global Trumpism'

[Ralph Johansen via Marxism]

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Mark Blyth is a thick-brogued Scotsman who is presently at the Watson 
Institute at Brown University in Providence, R.I. He was one of very few 
who predicted Trump's election, as far back as May 2015, and he never 
wavered. Today he spoke there and this is part of his interesting, 
somewhat oblique take on the topic that is on top everywhere, in which 
are the bones of his correct forecast.. I had a little trouble getting 
what he was saying. I remembered, as i listened, long ago riding on the 
top deck of an Edinburgh bus at rush hour with two working blokes with 
their lunch pails going east to their homes in the poor section of town. 
Provincial American that I was, I couldn't understand a word they said, 
except for the occasional preposition or adjective that told me it was 
English. Mark Blyth has that accent.



http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/mark-blyth-and-wendy-schiller-election-2016-what-happened-and-why.html


Global Trumpism

The implications of the US election are not just local. Brexit happened. 
Greece had a Grexit but it did not come off. The shrinkage of the center 
parties is occurring across the entire OECD. The collapse of left-wing 
parties is general across Western Europe. Coming up next, Renzi is going 
to fail in the Italian Referendum, bringing on a constitutional crisis. 
Shortly after that we have the French election coming up. Here is a 
statistical comparison: the lowest approval rating for G.W. Bush was 
27%; the president of France's current approval rating is 4%.  The 
National Front have nearly 40% of the intended vote. Even with the 
difficulties presented by the French constitution, where you have second 
round elections, etc., the most popular political party by a factor of 
two in France is the National Front. After that comes the German 
election, where Merkel is also vulnerable.



How does this all connect? Here's a simple way of thinking about it. 
From 1945 to 1975 we talked about a particular economic variable called 
full employment. There's a thing called the Lucas critique, which says 
that if you keep targeting something, people will game it. And they did. 
Unions gamed it. Employers gamed it. The result was inflation, and after 
awhile that inflation became painful and the people hurt by it, the 
creditor class, banded together and founded a market-friendly 
revolution. They liberated finance and they deregulated banks and they 
integrated the economies of the West. They globalized labor so that 
labor could no longer get their share of productivity. Because if you 
fought for it, we'd just move your job elsewhere.. And all of those 
trade agreements that were signed, globalization, is inevitable and you 
can't roll it back. Those politicians like Sanders and Trump who tell 
you that they can are dishonest. You know, you can go to the web and 
look up WTO; it's a 700-page legal document that took five years to 
thrash out among corporate interests - lawyers, lobbyists, with very 
little input from civil society. The same is true of the EU agreements 
on capital movements, take your pick.



And there's a moment when people just began to figure out that for the 
past thirty years, from 1985 until now, huge amounts or money have been 
generated in the global economy and none of us have benefited. In the 
global economy, there's growing unemployment. Most of the wealth has 
gone to a tiny minority.of the population. So you knew this was going to 
happen. You don't have look far to see this. Get out of west Providence, 
go to east Providence or northeast Providence, where I walked into a 
neighborhood which has cash checking agencies, chicken joints. pawn 
shops, broken down store fronts and never heard-of stores. This is the 
reality of people In many countries, not just here. So there fed up with 
this. And at any sign of any possible opportunity, whether it's Brexit 
or the Italian constitutional referendum, they basically give their 
elites notice that they've had enough of this, and that's what it is.



Now there's an underpinning to this. For 30 years, from 1945 to 1975, 
they targeted employment. That brought on inflation. Then they targeted 
inflation for 30 years. I don't see why the Lucas critique doesn't apply 
to that as well. We've managed to create a world where you can dump 
trillions of dollars worth of the global money supply, QE and other 
programs, and there's no inflation anywhere. Here's the problem: they 
leveled out and bailed out the banking system and they drained the 
public purse to do it, and now they need to recoup that terrible debt, 
when people's personal balance sheets are still full of debt that they 

[Marxism] Teacher Caught On Audio Telling Students Their Parents Would Be Deported When Trump Gets Into Office.

[Ken Hiebert via Marxism]

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http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/11/11/south-l-a-teacher-caught-on-audio-telling-students-their-parents-would-be-deported/#.WCfEQNwgiWo.twitter
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[Marxism] The myth of the reactionary white working class

[Ken Hiebert via Marxism]

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http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/11/12/pers-n12.html

The Militant offered a similar view.
http://www.themilitant.com/2016/8044/804402.html
I can go this far with them.  I expect the level of racism today is lower than 
80 years ago when Trotsky referred to the white working class in the US as 
hangmen and beasts.  And the white working class is hardly uniform.  There is a 
range of views on race.
At the same time, if the vote for Trump were simply a result of economic 
hardship, we should expect the pro-Trump vote to be higher among blacks and 
Hispanics.  Clearly, there was a racial divide.  A large number of white 
workers, even if they did not share Trump's racist views, were willing to 
overlook them as they decided their vote.

ken h

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[Marxism] Maureen Dowd on target

[Louis Proyect via Marxism]

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NY Times Op=Ed, November 13 2016
Obama Lobbies Against Obliteration by Trump
by Maureen Dowd

WASHINGTON — YOU know how desperate President Obama is — as he 
contemplates all his accomplishments going down the drain at the hands 
of a man he has total contempt for — when he is willing to do something 
so against his nature.


He tried to persuade Donald Trump.

We saw that unicorn glimpsed only fleetingly in the last eight years: 
the cajoling Barack Obama.


The president flattered the president-elect by letting Trump rack up the 
ego arithmetic.


“This was a meeting that was going to last for maybe 10 or 15 minutes 
and we were just going to get to know each other,” Trump told reporters 
afterward, as they sat in front of the Oval Office fireplace. But, he 
marveled, “The meeting lasted for almost an hour and a half.”


And lo and behold, it worked — sort of. In his first post-election 
newspaper interview, Trump told The Wall Street Journal that he would 
consider leaving in place the parts of Obamacare that allow children to 
stay on their parents’ health plan until they are 26 and that prevent 
people from being refused insurance because of existing conditions.


“I told him I will look at his suggestions, and out of respect, I will 
do that,” Trump said.


Of course, those are two very popular elements of the law that 
Republicans wouldn’t dream of killing anyway. Still, President Obama’s 
charm and civility clearly made a strong impression, though it’s 
impossible to say when a nasty tweet will come in the middle of the night.


“I want a country that loves each other,” Trump told the paper. “I want 
to stress that.”


Harry Reid wasn’t in a kumbaya frame of mind, calling Trump “a sexual 
predator who lost the popular vote.”


Out of a hailstorm of unfathomable things during the week, one sticks 
out to me: How can it be that in the end, Barack Obama did not 
understand the Obama revolution?


He came away from that elated whoosh in 2008 not comprehending that many 
voters viewed him as the escape hatch from Clinton Inc. It never would 
have occurred to anyone then — even the Clintons — that President Obama 
would be the one to brush away any aversions and objections, take us by 
the elbow, and firmly steer us back to Clinton Inc.


Voters waited in line for hours at those early Obama rallies because 
they wanted thunderous change. They wanted a newcomer who didn’t look 
like the old dudes on our money, someone who would bust up the 
incestuous system and give us, as the poster said, hope.


But Obama lost touch with his revolutionary side and settled comfortably 
into being an Ivy League East Coast cerebral elitist who hung out with 
celebrities, lectured Congress and scorned the art of political persuasion.


He was cozy with Silicon Valley and dismissive of working-class voters 
anxious about globalization, shrugging that “We’re part of an 
interconnected global economy now, and there’s no going back from that.” 
He was dismissive of Americans anxious about terrorism after the Paris 
attacks, noting that you’d be more likely to die from a bathtub fall.


Every weekday, get thought-provoking commentary from Op-Ed columnists, 
the Times editorial board and contributing writers from around the world.


He was dismissive of Bernie Sanders and his voters, treating Sanders as 
a fairy tale, just as Bill Clinton treated him in 2008 when he was a 
senator with little record but with an army of passionate supporters who 
wanted to upend moldy politics.


Nudging Sanders and Joe Biden toward the exit, Obama was the ultimate 
establishmentarian. As he told the Rutgers student paper in May, “We 
have to make incremental changes where we can, and every once in a while 
you’ll get a breakthrough and make the kind of big changes that are 
necessary.”


The man who swept into the White House in a boisterous rebellion was 
dismissive of the boisterous rebellions in both the Democratic and 
Republican Parties. He insisted that an incrementalist and fellow Ivy 
League East Coast cerebral elitist who hangs out with celebrities would 
be best to save his legacy.


Even Michelle, who understands the importance of the visceral in 
politics better than her husband and who said in 2007 that the bid to 
usurp Hillary was about “our souls,” tamped down hope. “Remember, it’s 
not about voting for the perfect candidate,” she told a crowd at La 
Salle University. “There is no such person.”


The leaked John Podesta emails showed how deluded the campaign was about 
the insurgent mood of the voters.


In January 2015, Hillary’s communications director, Jennifer Palmieri, 
advised Podesta: “Make a virtue of her 

[Marxism] Trump Campaigned Against Lobbyists. Now They’re on His Transition Team

[Gary MacLennan via Marxism]

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Surprise 🙃

I have been asked by several people about how Trump will go.  Will he
become "pragmatic" as our Prime Minister assures everyone?  What do I
think?  Of course, at this stage in my life cycle I should long ago have
abandoned the impulse to predict the future.  Besides, as a follower of
Bhaskar, I am all too aware that we live in open systems and prediction is
impossible.  But we are left with intelligent guesses.

Trump himself is a narcissistic buffoon. They have made a mistake by
allowing him to be elected.  Who do I mean by "They"?  Well of course I am
thinking about the rich and the powerful - the American ruling class.  It
is not as if they were faced with an existential threat as the German
ruling class were when they turned to Hitler. If I were asked to
characterize the USA elite I would say they were marked by a combination of
arrogance and insouciance. Frankly, my dear, they don't give a damn.

Why  do I think they have they made a mistake, then? Partly I think because
they have under thought the role of the POTUS. He is something like a
Monarch and something like a Prime Minister. There has to be a certain awe
and majesty and mystique around the occupier of the position, a gravitas if
you like, if they are to fulfill the role's function.  I want to vomit when
I hear the phrase "Leader of the Free World", but it has meaning to
millions of "moderates"  outside the USA. All round the world people look
to the White House for inspiration.  In burns my guts to write this, but it
is true.

Now we have a giant's role upon a dwarfish thief.  The clown, who excels at
levels like letting off wet farts in the crowded elevator, is now in the
Oval Office. Nick Farage, the other buffoon who leads the ultra right in
the UK, has joked about how he will tell Trump not to touch Theresa May
when the POTUS meets the UK's Prime Minister. I could never have invented
that kind of scenario where awe and majesty so obviously drowns in a
torrent of sniggering.

The other reason why I feel, Trump is riding the tiber is that I think a
complicated dialectic has been set in train around the Deplorables. I
actually like that phrase because I think it will come back to haunt those
who have let the Deplorables out of the cage. There is no way at all that
Trump can help his base, even if he intended to. They will watch with ever
growing dismay as he does his best to become "dignified" and "pragmatic".
74% of Americans either voted against Trump or abstained. They will also
watch Trump with ever deepening dislike that might turn to hatred.

He will try and throw some red meet to his followers.  That will take the
form of creating some Feared, Despised Other internally as well as
externally.  Whoever he chooses will exact a price from him.

So to sum up, Trump will veer from savagery to doing an imitation of what
he thinks the POTUS should do. Fear and ridicule  and disillusion will
accompany his every move.  At the end of the four years, the ruling class
will be scrambling to contain the mess they have created.

comradely

Gary
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[Marxism] More on the vote and lack of 'mandate'.

[DW via Marxism]

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*FACTS: VOTE TOTALS AND VOTER TURNOUT*



*Total number of votes cast: 126,709,939 million*



Clinton:  60,555,017  -- 47.79% of votes cast



Trump:  60,088,797  -- 47.42% of votes cast



Johnson:  4,131,788  -- 3.26% of votes cast



Stein:  1,236,811  -- 0.97% of votes cast



Others: 690,526 -- 0.54% of votes cast



Parsing it;



Nearly half of eligible voters (231,556,622 people eligible vote) did not
vote in the 2016 presidential election, according to data of early turnout
rates compiled by the United States Election Project
 and crunched by Josh Nelson
. The full results may not be available
until two weeks.



The data found that of the U.S. population:



·*45.35% (or 105 million eligible voters) didn't vote *

·*26.15% of all eligible voters voted for Hillary Clinton *

·*25.95% of all eligible voters voted for Donald Trump *



It wasn't the lowest turnout in history, however. About 49 percent of
eligible voters did not participate in the 1996 election, in which
Democratic candidate Bill Clinton beat Republican candidate Bob Dole.



For the *swing states*, tallied by Jason Andrews
:

·36.5% didn't vote

·29.9% voted for Clinton

·30.9% voted for Trump

·1.9% voted Johnson





Again, the abstention vote was the largest voting bloc: 105 million
eligible voters stayed home on Election Day. Trump was elected with 25.5%
of the eligible voters.



Not only did he not win the popular vote, he garnered the votes of just
one-fourth of the eligible voters.



* * * * * * * * * *





*Obama’s Vanished Coalition (by Jack Rasmus)*



Trump’s election can be traced to the shift in key groups of voters who had
supported Obama in 2008 and who gave Obama his ‘one more chance’ to do
something in 2012, and who were deeply disappointed when he failed to do so
since 2012.  At the forefront of these groups was the white non-college
educated working class, especially those concentrated in the great lakes
industrial states in that geographic ‘arc’ from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin.
This group not only turned from Democrats but turned to Trump—as they had
in 1980 as the so-called ‘Reagan Democrats’—in response to another economic
crisis of the 1970s during which they were also abandoned by the Democratic
Party. Clinton 2016 thus lost key swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan that helped put Obama ‘over the top’ a second time
in those states.



Another important voter group that delivered for Obama in 2012 and did not
for Clinton in 2016 in similar percentages were Latinos.  They voted by a
margin of 44% for Obama 2012, but only 36% for Clinton.  Apparently, Trump
insults of Latinos were less important than Obama deportation policies in
recent years.



Women voters were supposed to vote overwhelmingly for Clinton, but white
women aged 45 and over did not.  And 75 million ‘millennials, 34 and under,
were driven away by Clinton and the Democratic Party’s treatment of the
Sanders campaign during the primaries and by offering no solution to the
hopeless scenario of insecure, low pay service jobs in exchange for record
student debt.



In short, white non-college educated workers abandoned the Democrats, while
other groups simply ‘stayed home’ and did not vote in the numbers they
previously had in 2012.



One final statistic worth considering: Over 95 percent of jobs created
during the “recovery” have gone to college-educated workers, while those
with a high school diploma or less are being left behind. A report
published by Georgetown University reveals that those with at least some
college education have captured 11.5 million of the 11.6 million jobs
created during the recovery – again, mostly jobs without benefits, unions,
job security.



* * * * * * * * * *





*ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE*



Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. In any democracy respecting the
fundamental democratic principle of “one-person, one-vote, Clinton should
have been elected president. This was not to be.



For the second time in 16 years, a Democratic Party candidate won the
popular vote (in 2000 it was Al Gore) but lost the election.



While Trump lost the national popular vote by more than 400,000 votes
(absolute final tally is not yet in), he won the Electoral Collge by a wide
margin: 58%, or 308 delegates, for Trump vs. 42%, for 230 delegates, for
Clinton.



Why this disparity? Why this blatantly anti-democratic setup that denies
One Person, One Vote?

[Marxism] Fwd: A Rabah Ameur-Zaïmeche retrospective | Louis Proyect: The Unrepentant Marxist

[Louis Proyect via Marxism]

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In this article I want to call your attention to the Rabah 
Ameur-Zaïmeche retrospective that began on November 1 at the French 
Institute Alliance Française (FIAF) in New York that runs until December 
13. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to view the screeners before now so the 
November 1 feature is only included to give you a sense of the breadth 
of this Algerian director’s body of work. Totally unknown to me before 
this week, I would now include him as among the more important 
filmmakers on the scene today—an equal to the Dardenne brothers, Nuri 
Bilge Ceylan and Jafar Panahi. If you are familiar with these directors, 
you would know that this is high praise. Born fifty years ago in Beni 
Zid, Algeria, he grew up in France. But like other Algerian immigrant 
filmmakers, his focus is very much on the Algerian experience.


full: 
https://louisproyect.org/2016/11/12/a-rabah-ameur-zaimeche-retrospective/

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Re: [Marxism] The myth of the reactionary white working class - World Socialist Web Site

[Louis Proyect via Marxism]

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On 11/12/16 5:46 PM, Andrew Stewart via Marxism wrote:

I actually kinda miss Clay right now. Like Sam Clemens said, there's lies, 
damned lies, and statistics!


http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/11/12/pers-n12.html




Clay is funny. He tweeted about me predicting a Clinton victory as if I 
had any real idea of who would win. The only thing I brought to the 
table was a hostility to bourgeois parties that I learned in the 
Trotskyist movement in the 1960s. Michael Moore gets the nod from some 
on the left today because he predicted a Trump victory. Let him have 
that credit even though it far outweighed by his continuing class 
collaborationism.

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[Marxism] The myth of the reactionary white working class - World Socialist Web Site

[Andrew Stewart via Marxism]

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I actually kinda miss Clay right now. Like Sam Clemens said, there's lies, 
damned lies, and statistics!


http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/11/12/pers-n12.html


Best regards,
Andrew Stewart 
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[Marxism] Fwd: Soros-fronted orgs among groups calling for anti-Trump protests (VIDEO) — RT America

[Louis Proyect via Marxism]

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All these idiots who have been appearing on RT.com for the past five 
years, including Tariq Ali and Patrick Cockburn, will have a lot of 
explaining to do as this trend continues.


https://www.rt.com/usa/366579-soros-orgs-driving-trump-protests/
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[Marxism] Fwd: Can Trump Save Their Jobs? They’re Counting on It - The New York Times

[Louis Proyect via Marxism]

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By the time the Chicago Cubs won the World Series for the first time in 
108 years this month, Paul Roell was already asleep. He did not stay up 
to see Barack Obama win the presidency in 2008, or watch in 2000 as the 
margin of votes separating George W. Bush and Al Gore in Florida shrank 
to the vanishing point.


After all, he has to clock in daily at 5:30 a.m. at the 
soon-to-be-shuttered Carrier factory here, where he has worked 17 years.


But shortly before 3 a.m. Wednesday, when the networks projected that 
Donald J. Trump would be the next president of the United States, Mr. 
Roell was wide awake. His wife, Stephanie, was up, too, and they 
exchanged high fives in the wee hours.


In fact, Mr. Roell was so keyed up, he did not sleep at all that night 
and headed straight to the plant before sunrise, bleary-eyed but 
euphoric. “I don’t watch sports, but this was my World Series,” he said.


It is precisely this level of enthusiasm, from Mr. Roell and millions of 
like-minded Americans, that pollsters and the campaign of Hillary 
Clinton did not appreciate, even though it was vividly on display in 
February after a video went viral showing furious Carrier workers here 
learning from management that their jobs would be going abroad.


Carrier’s decision to move the factory to Monterrey, Mexico, will 
eliminate 1,400 jobs by 2019. Mr. Trump quickly made the factory Exhibit 
A in his argument against the trade policies of Republicans and 
Democrats alike.


He cited Carrier again and again on the campaign trail, threatening to 
phone executives at the company and its parent, United Technologies, and 
to hit them with 35 percent tariffs on any furnaces and air-conditioners 
they imported from Mexico. To the cheers of his supporters, he predicted 
at rallies that Carrier would call him up as president and say, “Sir, 
we’ve decided to stay in the United States.”


Now his supporters expect action. “If he doesn’t pass that tariff, I 
will vote the other way next time,” warned Nicole Hargrove, who has 
worked at Carrier for a decade and a half and is not certain what she 
will do if and when her job goes to Mexico.


full: 
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/13/business/economy/can-trump-save-their-jobs-theyre-counting-on-it.html

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Re: [Marxism] Trump's 'big victory'. . . with 26% support

[Mark Lause via Marxism]

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Exit polls also indicate that a sizeable portion of that 26% said that they
didn't actually trust him but trusted Clinton less.

ML
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Re: [Marxism] Trump Campaigned Against Lobbyists. Now They’re on His Transition Team.

[Mark Lause via Marxism]

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He is also retreating from his rhetoric on Obamacare . . . which makes
sense, given that it's such a Nixonian measure.  :-)

ML
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[Marxism] Fwd: Gregg Popovich uncensored: Full transcript of thoughts on Donald Trump - San Antonio Express-News

[Louis Proyect via Marxism]

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San Antonio Spurs coach speaks out.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/spurs/article/Gregg-Popovich-uncensored-Discusses-the-10609311.php
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