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> There are no “jihadists linked to al-Qaida” in Idlib, as anyone free of
> post-9/11 “war on
> terror” ideology is well aware[.]
I have nothing to say to anyone who says “there are no jihadists linked to”
Al-Qaeda. Would you be more comfortable with the term Islamist or Salafist? As
for the idea that jihadists are in Al-Qaeda or Al-Nusra (“HTS”) prisons for
being jihadists, it is utterly surreal. Next thing you’ll be telling us that
the Salafists are really misunderstood social democrats.
Sent from my iPhone
> On Sep 14, 2018, at 1:15 AM, mkaradjis wrote:
>
> “This BBC article claims that the numbers of just Uighars numbers
> between 7,000 and 10,000 depending on the source. Of other ethnic
> fighters they say a “high concentration.”
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-45401474”.
>
> That article, dated September 2018, also made the claim that
> “thousands have taken up arms against the government, including
> jihadists linked to al-Qaeda.” To have some credibility, media such as
> the BBC should at least keep up to date. There are no “jihadists
> linked to al-Qaida” in Idlib, as anyone free of post-9/11 “war on
> terror” ideology is well aware, unless they mean the handful of
> pro-Qaida, ex-Nusra folk in Hurras al-Din, many of whom are in HTS
> prisons.
>
> Anyway, the article quotes Assadist MP Fares Shehabi that there are
> 10,000 Uighars in Idlib. Not sure if you consider a regime hack a
> credible source, but based on his assertion that there are 100,000
> “al-Qaida-linked” militants, my tendency would be to divide anything
> he says by about 100.
>
> As for the “war on terror” style AFP article:
>
> “This AFP article gives the number of just Uighar fighters (as opposed
> to them and their “families”) between 1 and several thousand. It also
> mentions high concentrations of Chechens.
> https://www.afp.com/en/news/23/foreign-fighters-syrias-idlib-face-last-stand-doc-18x6wz1”.
>
> The BBC article said “several thousand” including their families. So
> about 1000 fighters is probably about right. It also corresponds
> better to what we hear on the ground. There are not exactly daily
> reports of huge numbers of Uighar fighters, though here and there
> there is reference to the TIP. Certainly nothing in the order of
> either HTS or its opponents.
>
> Most estimates put HTS strength at about 10,000 fighters (that is also
> the number given in the BBC article by UN's special envoy for Syria,
> Staffan de Mistura, who erroneously claimed they were “associated with
> al-Qaeda.”
>
> However, referring to these numbers, Ahmad Abazeid, a Turkey-based
> Syrian analyst, “says that figure is an exaggeration and the fighters
> number only a few thousand.”
> https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/looming-battle-idlib-180908142026400.html
>
> I’m not sure who is correct, but one thing for sure is that Nusra
> numbers were never estimated as any higher than 10,000, though given
> that HTS is a coalition of Nusra (now JFS) with 5 very small groups
> (not all jihadist), Lister’s 12,000 figure may be correct, but again I
> would urge caution given Abazeid’s analysis.
>
> Overwhelmingly, these are Syrians, because when Nusra (now the core of
> HTS) and ISIS split in 2013, there was a very heavy divide between
> foreign fighters (overwhelmingly went with ISIS) and local fighters
> (overwhelmingly with Nusra); after all, Nusra resulted from a
> “Syrianisation” of this otherwise foreign invader force from Iraq.
> However, there are a small number of foreign fighters with HTS, mostly
> Arabs.
>
> Nearly all other armed groups in Greater Idlib (ie, Idlib, southern
> and western Aleppo province, northern Hama and Latakia) are part of
> the National Front for Liberation (NFL) coalition, which includes the
> Free Idlib Army, which is itself a coalition of the major FSA groups
> in Idlib, and the Victory Army (Jaysh al-Nasr), another FSA coalition
> based in northern Hama. The NFL also includes Islamist groups like
> Ahrar al-Sham and many others.
>
> According to Abazeid, “NFL is the biggest force [in Idlib] in terms of
> numbers and geographical presence and weaponry.” Most sources suggest
> it has some 30,000 fighters (some estimates are as high as 70,000).
> According to the article quoting Abazeid, he “also cast doubt on those
> estimates.” But the quote from him “casting doubt” is merely “But NFL
> is a local formation, not an organised army, and therefore it's
> difficult to estimate its numbers.”
>
> That is very true: it is local; it is somewhat decentralised precisely
> because it is based directly in the communities and villages (as are
> most HTS cadre);
