Re: [Marxism] Two articles of note on Greece

[Dayne Goodwin via Marxism]

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[Thanks to Art for his message.  I am copying next below the full text
of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's very interesting behind-the scenes view
of Syriza's leadership, followed by some comments on it by Yves Smith
at "Naked Capitalism", dayne]

Europe is blowing itself apart over Greece - and nobody seems able to stop it
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras never expected to win Sunday's
referendum. He is now trapped and hurtling towards Grexit
by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Athens


Like a tragedy from Euripides, the long struggle between Greece and
Europe's creditor powers is reaching a cataclysmic end that nobody
planned, nobody seems able to escape, and that threatens to shatter
the greater European order in the process.

Greek premier Alexis Tsipras never expected to win Sunday's referendum
on EMU bail-out terms, let alone to preside over a blazing national
revolt against foreign control.

He called the snap vote with the expectation - and intention - of
losing it. The plan was to put up a good fight, accept honourable
defeat, and hand over the keys of the Maximos Mansion, leaving it to
others to implement the June 25 "ultimatum" and suffer the opprobrium.

This ultimatum came as a shock to the Greek cabinet. They thought they
were on the cusp of a deal, bad though it was. Mr Tsipras had already
made the decision to acquiesce to austerity demands, recognizing that
Syriza had failed to bring about a debtors' cartel of southern EMU
states and had seriously misjudged the mood across the eurozone.

Instead they were confronted with a text from the creditors that upped
the ante, demanding a rise in VAT on tourist hotels from 7pc (de
facto) to 23pc at a single stroke.

Creditors insisted on further pension cuts of 1pc of GDP by next year
and a phase out of welfare assistance (EKAS) for poorer pensioners,
even though pensions have already been cut by 44pc.

They insisted on fiscal tightening equal to 2pc of GDP in an economy
reeling from six years of depression and devastating hysteresis. They
offered no debt relief. The Europeans intervened behind the scenes to
suppress a report by the International Monetary Fund validating
Greece's claim that its debt is "unsustainable". The IMF concluded
that the country not only needs a 30pc haircut to restore viability,
but also €52bn of fresh money to claw its way out of crisis.

They rejected Greek plans to work with the OECD on market reforms, and
with the International Labour Organisation on collective bargaining
laws. They stuck rigidly to their script, refusing to recognise in any
way that their own Dickensian prescriptions have been discredited by
economists from across the world.

"They just didn't want us to sign. They had already decided to push us
out," said the now-departed finance minister Yanis Varoufakis.

So Syriza called the referendum. To their consternation, they won,
igniting the great Greek revolt of 2015, the moment when the people
finally issued a primal scream, daubed their war paint, and formed the
hoplite phalanx.

Mr Tsipras is now trapped by his success. "The referendum has its own
dynamic. People will revolt if he comes back from Brussels with a
shoddy compromise," said Costas Lapavitsas, a Syriza MP.

"Tsipras doesn't want to take the path of Grexit, but I think he
realizes that this is now what lies straight ahead of him," he said.

What should have been a celebration on Sunday night turned into a
wake. Mr Tsipras was depressed, dissecting all the errors that Syriza
has made since taking power in January, talking into the early hours.

The prime minister was reportedly told that the time had come to
choose, either he should seize on the momentum of the 61pc landslide
vote, and take the fight to the Eurogroup, or yield to the creditor
demands - and give up the volatile Mr Varoufakis in the process as a
token of good faith.

Everybody knew what a fight would mean. The inner cabinet had
discussed the details a week earlier at a tense meeting after the
European Central Bank refused to increase liquidity (ELA) to the Greek
banking system, forcing Syriza to impose capital controls.

It was a triple plan. They would "requisition" the Bank of Greece and
sack the governor under emergency national laws. The estimated €17bn
of reserves still stashed away in various branches of the central bank
would be seized.

They would issue parallel liquidity and California-style IOUs
denominated in euros to keep the banking system afloat, backed by an
appeal to the European Court of Justice to throw the other side off
balance, all the wh

[Marxism] Two articles of note on Greece

[Art Young via Marxism]

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1) Stratfor: The Greek Vote and the EU Miscalculation

http://tinyurl.com/nujndsp 

 

2) Europe is blowing itself apart over Greece - and nobody seems able to
stop it

 

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras never expected to win Sunday's referendum. He
is now trapped and hurtling towards Grexit

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Athens

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11724924/Europe-is-blowing-itse
lf-apart-over-Greece-and-nobody-can-stop-it.html 

 

Like a tragedy from Euripides, the long struggle between Greece and Europe's
creditor powers is reaching a cataclysmic end that nobody planned, nobody
seems able to escape, and that threatens to shatter the greater European
order in the process. 

 

Greek premier Alexis Tsipras never expected to win Sunday's referendum on
EMU bail-out terms, let alone to preside over a blazing national revolt
against foreign control. He called the snap vote with the expectation - and
intention - of losing it. The plan was to put up a good fight, accept
honourable defeat, and hand over the keys of the Maximos Mansion, leaving it
to others to implement the June 25 "ultimatum" and suffer the opprobrium.
... What should have been a celebration on Sunday night [after the
referendum victory] turned into a wake. Mr Tsipras was depressed, dissecting
all the errors that Syriza has made since taking power in January, talking
into the early hours. .

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