Overall, I am impressed at the improvement in hurricane forecast accuracy
over the past decade, particularly in the ability to forecast development
of a major hurricane long before there was anything obvious in the works.
On Wed, Sep 28, 2022 at 2:21 PM Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> I just looked at the Poos weather station and unless it has been blown
> away is showing a balmy spring day. But seems not quite to be the case
>
> ...IAN CAUSING CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE
> FLORIDA PENINSULA...
>
> At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by an Air
> Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Tampa radar data about 50 miles
> south-southwest of Punta Gorda, Florida. Ian is moving toward the
> north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a reduction
> in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the northeast
> on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move
> onshore soon, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and
> emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn
> northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida coast in addition
> to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday.
>
> Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts.
> Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
> Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
> coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane soon. Weakening is expected
> after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over
> the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern
> Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday.
>
> Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
> center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280
> km). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass,
> Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 94 mph (151 km/h) and a wind
> gust of 126 mph (203 km/h).
>
> The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air Force
> Reserve dropsonde data.
>
> Visit the National Hurricane Center website at hurricanes.gov for
> additional forecast information on Ian.
>
> The next complete advisory will be at 5:00 PM EDT.
>
> --FT
> Sent from iFōn
> ___
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