Re: [meteorite-list] Fw: U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite

2008-02-20 Thread Mark Ford


I don't know all that much about ballistic missiles... but presumably
this ballistic missile they are planning to use, uses large amounts of
DU? (Depleted uranium)  hmm .. sniff that air...

Another thing to look out for tonight, A Total lunar eclipse see
http://www.spaceweather.com/


Mark

-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mr
EMan
Sent: 17 February 2008 03:14
To: Meteorite List
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Fw: U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy
Satellite

How do the skeptics know that the attack will come from below and not
from above?  

Eman
Thinking outdside the box
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Re: [meteorite-list] Fw: U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite

2008-02-20 Thread Sterling K. Webb
Hi,

Willing to be as paranoid as the next guy, but
the choice of DU does not seem a reasonable one
for an anti-ballistic-missile missile's kinetic warhead.
DU's high density makes for a very small but massive
projectile, useful for penetration of an armored target.
Satellites are not armored for obvious reasons of
weight. A small high-density warhead would go right
through a satellite (or a missile) and merely leave a hole.

No, I think you'd want to smack it with something
that had considerable surface area, or something with
extensions. The whole point of the impact would be
to transfer as much energy to the target as possible,
not to concentrate it in one spot.

Not being privy to the finer points of anti-missile
kinetic warhead design, these would be general design
criteria, I would think. Boeing, the contractor, calls it
hit-to-kill technology (no details provided):
http://www.allbusiness.com/defense-aerospace/defense-industry-defense-electronics/6008984-1.html

Here's an unclassified paper on the warhead's guidance
mechanisms:
http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA408904Location=U2doc=GetTRDoc.pdf
Brush up your math skills; get your 3D vectors ready!
It's a moving-mass flight actuator, like a hang glider flyer
shifting his weight to direct his flight. One might opine
that dense weights would be needed to do that, but they
would be small compared to the warhead weight.

OK! This WIRED Blog agrees with you that depleted
uranium is a logical choice. Fascinating piece; read it:
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/02/the-weapon-that.html
quotethe SM-3 destroys its target by ramming into with
lots and lots of sheer kinetic energy -- more than 130
megajoules worth, or the equivalent of a 10 ton truck
traveling at 600 miles per hour, it[s] maker says.unquote

But the SM-3 is not intended for this job:
quoteFor this proposed shoot-down, the Pentagon is claiming
that it will make modifications to three SM-3 interceptors
so that they can look for the malfunctioning satellite.  The
modifications involve changing the software to target a satellite
rather than a missile, David Wright of the Union of Concerned
Scientists tells New Scientist. This interceptor is really intended
for missiles traveling at 3 to 4 kilometers per second; the satellite
they're going to be shooting at has a speed of 7 to 8 kilometers
per second.unquote

The comments on this Blog piece argue the DU or No-DU
question exhaustively, and they do so cogently. Your best answers
(or the best answers we can come up with) are in there. The warhead
is so full of mechanisms that the dense kill component cannot
be very large (dead weight), maybe like a bee-bee inside the bullet.

It would seem to me that all the SM-3 needs to do is pop up
out of the atmosphere with little motion north or south and position
itself right in the path of the satellite approaching at 15,000 mph
and cause a collision, like a car pulling out into an intersection
that cars fly through at high speeds. A pretty satisfying crash
should result!

And there are other dense substances besides uranium, you
know. Tungsten would be an excellent choice as it would not
vaporize easily but stay in a solid bullet-like configuration, more
so than uranium, although I'm not knocking the role of hot plasma,
either. But at these speeds, the impact does not require the use of
hard or dense materials. Remember that the Columbia was taken
out by a piece of FOAM.


Sterling K. Webb
--
- Original Message - 
From: Mark Ford [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2008 11:10 AM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Fw: U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite




I don't know all that much about ballistic missiles... but presumably
this ballistic missile they are planning to use, uses large amounts of
DU? (Depleted uranium)  hmm .. sniff that air...

Another thing to look out for tonight, A Total lunar eclipse see
http://www.spaceweather.com/


Mark

-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mr
EMan
Sent: 17 February 2008 03:14
To: Meteorite List
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Fw: U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy
Satellite

How do the skeptics know that the attack will come from below and not
from above?

Eman
Thinking outdside the box
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Re: [meteorite-list] Fw: U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite

2008-02-17 Thread Mr EMan
How do the skeptics know that the attack will come from below and not
from above?  

Eman
Thinking outdside the box
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[meteorite-list] Fw: U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite

2008-02-15 Thread Sterling K. Webb
Forwarding this to The List for:
- Original Message - 
From: Kelly Beatty [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: Sterling K. Webb [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2008 2:57 PM
Subject: RE: [meteorite-list] U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite


Sterling...

I'm sending you this directly because for some reason my posts to the 
meteorite list aren't going through.

 Rob pointed out that only a very small percentage of the
 debris will  be directed into potentially dangerous orbits, but
 a small percentage of 100,000 is still a respectable number.

*none* of the debris will survive more than a few weeks. that's because 
while, conceivably, the fragments' apogees will change a bit, the perigees 
will not. and the perigees are already so low that fairly rapid decay is 
assured. all else being equal, breaking up the satellite will actually 
hasten reentry because virtually all the resulting pieces will have higher 
area/mass ratios that the intact satellite did.


clear skies,

Kelly Beatty
Executive Editor
SKY  TELESCOPE
617-864-7360 x2148
SkyandTelescope.com 

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[meteorite-list] Fw: U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite

2008-02-15 Thread Sterling K. Webb
Forwarding this to The List for:
- Original Message - 
From: Matson, Robert D. [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: Sterling K. Webb [EMAIL PROTECTED]; 
Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2008 4:54 PM
Subject: RE: [meteorite-list] U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite


Hi Sterling (and List, if Sterling forwards for me),

 Rob pointed out that only a very small percentage of the debris
 will be directed into potentially dangerous orbits, but a small
 percentage of 100,000 is still a respectable number.

Agreed; however, due to conservation of momentum the most wayward
pieces will be the smallest pieces, and these will have the highest
drag coefficients.  So it will not take long before drag at perigee
reduces the new boosted apogees right back down again.

The longer they wait to intercept USA 193, the fewer fragments that
will survive one orbit.  For example, at 200-km altitude there is
about a 5-degree half-angle fan of post-impact velocity vectors
which produce fragments that survive beyond one orbit.

The magic bullet fragments are the ones that depart the point
of impact in nearly the same direction that the original satellite
was moving -- but with higher velocity.  Perigee stays the same,
but apogee (and orbital lifetime) gets boosted.  It doesn't take
a lot of extra velocity.  At 200-km perigee, a boost of 30 m/s
will put apogee at 300 km; 59 m/s puts apogee at 400 km; 221 m/s
would send apogee all the way up to 1000 km.  But the key is
that the velocity has to be in that narrow window of directions
that maintains perigee above 100 km.

For similar reasons, at least half the fragments are going to
decay within half an orbit since they will have velocities lower
than the satellite had prior to impact, resulting in new perihelions
below 100 km.  So they will certainly choose an impact time such
that the ground track of the satellite does not pass over populated
areas for at least 1/2 an orbit.  That pretty much means a
descending node pass over the north Pacific -- the further north,
the better such that the only land mass crossed is the extreme
southern tip of South America, and Africa is completely avoided.

By the way, don't miss the opportunity to see passes of USA 193
in the evenings right now!  For example, there are excellent
passes of USA 193 for the next 4 nights over the southern
California area, and there are passes for New York City starting
Saturday night, every night for a week!  --Rob 

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Re: [meteorite-list] Fw: U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite

2008-02-15 Thread Jerry
Has there been a determination as to when [Universal Tie] and over where 
this feat will be accomplished.

Be neat to witness it!
Jerry Flaherty
- Original Message - 
From: Sterling K. Webb [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: Meteorite List meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2008 6:18 PM
Subject: [meteorite-list] Fw: U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite



Forwarding this to The List for:
- Original Message - 
From: Kelly Beatty [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: Sterling K. Webb [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2008 2:57 PM
Subject: RE: [meteorite-list] U.S. To Shoot Down Defunct Spy Satellite


Sterling...

I'm sending you this directly because for some reason my posts to the
meteorite list aren't going through.


Rob pointed out that only a very small percentage of the
debris will  be directed into potentially dangerous orbits, but
a small percentage of 100,000 is still a respectable number.


*none* of the debris will survive more than a few weeks. that's because
while, conceivably, the fragments' apogees will change a bit, the perigees
will not. and the perigees are already so low that fairly rapid decay is
assured. all else being equal, breaking up the satellite will actually
hasten reentry because virtually all the resulting pieces will have higher
area/mass ratios that the intact satellite did.


clear skies,

Kelly Beatty
Executive Editor
SKY  TELESCOPE
617-864-7360 x2148
SkyandTelescope.com

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