Re: Streaming dead again.

2003-02-12 Thread Andrew Odlyzko

  On Tue, 11 Feb 2003, John Todd wrote:

   (snip)

   Now, back to the NANOG-ish content:  I know a fundamental change in 
   technology when I see it, and VOIP is an obvious winner.  VOIP has 
   been smoldering for a few years, and the sudden growth of various 
   easy-to-implement SIP proxies and service platforms, plus the sudden 
   drop in price of SIP hard-phones, is going to push growth 
   tremendously.  Currently, the underlying technology is UDP that moves 
   calls around.  This is all well and good until you get thousands, 
   tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of calls going at once.  QoS 
   is, as Bill says, not a problem right now on public networks; I've 
   used VOIP across at least three exchange or peering sessions (in each 
   direction, no less!) and suffered no quality loss, even at 80kbps 
   rates.  However, when a significant percentage of cable and DSL 
   customers across the country figure this technology out, does this 
   cause problems for those providers?  Is it worthwhile for large 
   end-user aggregators to start figuring out how they are going to 
   offer this service locally on their own networks in order to save on 
   transit traffic to other peers/providers?  Or is this merely a tiny 
   bump in traffic, not worth worrying about?

   More interestingly: what happens to the network when the first 
   shared LD software comes into creation?  Imagine 1/3 (to pick a 
   worst-case percentage) of  your customers producing and consuming 
   (possibly) 80kbps of traffic for 5 hours a day as they offer their 
   local analog lines to anyone who wants to make local calls to that 
   calling area.

   Overseas calling I expect will show similar growth.  Nobody wants to 
   pay $.20 or even $.10 per minute to Asian nations, so as soon as Joe 
   User figures out how this VOIP stuff works, there will be (is?) a 
   tendency for UDP increases on inter-continental spans.  Nothing new 
   here; we've all said this was coming for years.  Now it's finally 
   possible - is everyone ready?

   JT

   (snip)


VOIP is likely to cause a financial upheaval in the telecom industry,
because the overwhelming fraction of revenues still comes from voice
services.  However, VOIP is likely to have only a minor impact on
Internet backbones.  The reason is that there simply isn't that much
voice traffic.  Various estimates (such as those in my papers at
http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/networks.html) say that already
there is about twice as much US Internet backbone traffic as US long
distance voice traffic, and that is if you count voice as two 64 Kb/s
streams of data.  If you use compression, that goes down even further.

Now introducing flat rate VOIP service will stimulate voice usage
some, but based on various previous experiences, not by enough to
make a quantum difference, especially since (again, based on previous
experiences) it will take a while for VOIP to spread widely.

Andrew Odlyzko




Re: Streaming dead again.

2003-02-12 Thread Marshall Eubanks

As of 9:00 AM EST, I am not seeing any of the multicast groups here - 
more precisely, I can see rtcp traffic from
other group members, but not the broadcasts themselves.

 Regards
 Marshall Eubanks


T.M. Eubanks
Multicast Technologies, Inc.
10301 Democracy Lane, Suite 410
Fairfax, Virginia 22030
Phone : 703-293-9624   Fax : 703-293-9609
e-mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.multicasttech.com

Test your network for multicast :
http://www.multicasttech.com/mt/
 Status of Multicast on the Web  :
 http://www.multicasttech.com/status/index.html



Re: Streaming dead again.

2003-02-12 Thread Joe Abley


On Wednesday, Feb 12, 2003, at 08:44 Canada/Eastern, Andrew Odlyzko 
wrote:

VOIP is likely to cause a financial upheaval in the telecom industry,
because the overwhelming fraction of revenues still comes from voice
services.  However, VOIP is likely to have only a minor impact on
Internet backbones.  The reason is that there simply isn't that much
voice traffic.


About five years ago, before Southern Cross came live and we were 
struggling to find trans-Pacific bandwidth to New Zealand, we looked at 
the idea of running our internal voice and IP traffic between NZ and 
the US on some kind of converged network, to take advantage of the fact 
that the IP peak load and the voice peak load were about eight hours 
out of phase.

There were lots of nice graphs that showed a big trough in voice 
network utilisation almost exactly corresponding with peak IP demand, 
and everything looked very promising until you noticed that the Y axis 
on the voice graph was measured in k, and that of the IP graph was 
measured in megs. The benefit to be gained by being able to burst into 
the voice trunks was so marginal that it wasn't worth spending the time 
thinking about how we would do it.

(Every discussion involving mixing voice and data at that company 
always wound up involving ATM, too, which was another good reason to 
back away and quietly kill the idea before any madness ensued. I hear 
it didn't work, though; the company in question was happily running ATM 
over trans-pacific STM-1s after I left, with AAL5 frames intermingled 
with circuit emulation. Presumably the 30% cell tax and frame-padding 
overhead is some kind of ritual offering to the God of QoS, that 
magic deity whose name was always invoked to explain why ATM was being 
used for anything).

If that experience is representative of today's network as a whole, 
voice is not going to add much traffic to the Internet, relative to 
traffic that is already carried.

Of course this has nothing to do with whether the Internet today is 
suitable as a transport for isochronous voice services. But it's always 
fun to recount an anecdote in which you laugh at ATM.


Joe



Streaming dead again.

2003-02-11 Thread Eric Germann
Dying at merit.demarc.cogentco.com with 3561ms figures in traceroute.

How many would pay some $$$ for this to be moved in the future to a premium
service provided by someone like RealMedia.  Methinks the merit servers are
getting crushed.

I'd pony up some $$$ to virtually attend it if it were reliable.  Seems a
lot less reliable this time around.

FWIW, if the only video shot is a long shot of a talking head wireless
discussion, save the bandwidth and only stream the audio, or cut to the
slides if there are some.  Burning 80k to see a pixelated animation doesn't
do anyone any good.

Eric



==
  Eric GermannCCTec
  [EMAIL PROTECTED] Van Wert OH 45801
  http://www.cctec.comPh:  419 968 2640
  Fax: 603 825 5893

The fact that there are actually ways of knowing and characterizing the
extent of one’s ignorance, while still remaining ignorant, may ultimately be
more interesting and useful to people than Yarkovsky

  -- Jon Giorgini of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

BEGIN:VCARD
VERSION:2.1
N:Germann;Eric
FN:Eric Germann
ORG:CCTec
TEL;WORK;VOICE:(419) 968-2640
TEL;WORK;FAX:(603) 825-5893
ADR;WORK:;;17780 Middle Point Road;Van Wert;OH;45891;United States of America
LABEL;WORK;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:17780 Middle Point Road=0D=0AVan Wert, OH 45891=0D=0AUnited States of Americ=
a
URL:
URL:http://www.cctec.com
EMAIL;PREF;INTERNET:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
REV:20010529T013421Z
END:VCARD



Re: Streaming dead again.

2003-02-11 Thread Scott Call


 How many would pay some $$$ for this to be moved in the future to a premium
 service provided by someone like RealMedia.  Methinks the merit servers are
 getting crushed.


Methinkg Akamai might be a candidate to offer this service to nanog in
the future perhaps? :)

Avi?

FWIW the stream is working fine for me except they're not showing the
slides...


-Scott




Re: Streaming dead again.

2003-02-11 Thread Matt Fearnow

I'm not sure whom to contact, but if the person responsible for the
webcasts want's to contact me off list, I can offer up some idea's. 
(I've got some experience pushing webcast's to 2000+)

Matt 

On Tue, 11 Feb 2003 11:51:06 -0500
Eric Germann [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Dying at merit.demarc.cogentco.com with 3561ms figures in traceroute.
 
 How many would pay some $$$ for this to be moved in the future to a
 premium service provided by someone like RealMedia.  Methinks the
 merit servers are getting crushed.
 
 I'd pony up some $$$ to virtually attend it if it were reliable. 
 Seems a lot less reliable this time around.
 
 FWIW, if the only video shot is a long shot of a talking head wireless
 discussion, save the bandwidth and only stream the audio, or cut to
 the slides if there are some.  Burning 80k to see a pixelated
 animation doesn't do anyone any good.
 
 Eric
 
 
 
 =
 =
   Eric GermannCCTec
   [EMAIL PROTECTED] Van Wert OH
   45801 http://www.cctec.comPh:  419
   968 2640
   Fax: 603 825
   5893
 
 The fact that there are actually ways of knowing and characterizing
 the extent of onemore interesting and useful to people than Yarkovsky
 
   -- Jon Giorgini of NASA



Re: Streaming dead again.

2003-02-11 Thread Daniel Senie

At 11:51 AM 2/11/2003, Eric Germann wrote:

Dying at merit.demarc.cogentco.com with 3561ms figures in traceroute.

How many would pay some $$$ for this to be moved in the future to a premium
service provided by someone like RealMedia.  Methinks the merit servers are
getting crushed.


Raises hand as someone who'd be willing to pay a virtual attendance fee.



I'd pony up some $$$ to virtually attend it if it were reliable.  Seems a
lot less reliable this time around.


I've tried several times to suggest a virtual attendance fee for IETF 
meetings as well. There seems to be significant resistance to the concept 
in that group, perhaps NANOG will be more receptive?

For the fee, I'd expect some sort of a back-channel as well (IRC channel, 
email address or something so that folks who're attending virtually can ask 
questions of the presenter).



Re: Streaming dead again.

2003-02-11 Thread German Martinez

Eric,

-- 
It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity.
   --Albert Einstein (1879-1955)

On Tue, 11 Feb 2003, Eric Germann wrote:

 Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 11:51:06 -0500
 From: Eric Germann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Subject: Streaming dead again.

 Dying at merit.demarc.cogentco.com with 3561ms figures in traceroute.


I start seeing packet loss one hop before that

10. g7.ba21.b002281-1.ord01.atlas.cogentco.com  (around 10%)

Could somebody from Cogent take look to see what is going on ?

Thanks
German




Re: Streaming dead again.

2003-02-11 Thread bdragon

How many folks are watching the multicast stream vs the unicast stream?
Those watching the multicast stream really won't notice issues due to
number of viewers.

Perhaps the continuing degradation of the unicast stream is a bit of
social engineering to get folks to move to multicast? If so, good for
merit!