Re: Welcome back, Ma Bell
On Mar 5, 2006, at 8:05 PM, Eric A. Hall wrote: On 3/5/2006 7:10 PM, Steve Sobol wrote: Eric A. Hall wrote: What are people worried about here exactly? The same lack of competition in telecommunications that we had in the 1980s? Well that's an overreach. And if the primary concern is consolidation then we should have blocked NYNEX and Bell Atlantic from merging back in 1997, since this deal is basically SBC + BellSouth/Cingular, which is mostly indistinguishable from the earlier one. Sort of. No offense to Qwest folk, but we're basically down to a duopoly, which really isn't that improved over a single corporation. It will be interesting to see just how much the bells will compete with each other. Traditionally they haven't. They would have enjoyed large regulatory freedoms had they left their own territory and gone into each others territories, but they generally didn't. Insert your favorite excuse/fig leaf for why they haven't in the past one or two decades (depending on which regulatory construct you favor). If going forward, VZ ATT do not engage each other, instead of aggressively competing on each others home turf (outside of wireless which), maybe we'll benefit as 3rd parties. Maybe the DOJ will take notice. If not, then you end up with two organizations controlling their respective markets and we all lose. Two because it seems nobody really takes Qwest seriously out of the big three, or now soon to be two. That being said, the 'new ATT' with all those assets will need to be integrated, and work efficiently. Turf battles will ensue. Tens of thousands will get laid off. This really has a good ways to go before things settle out. If Atlanta turns into ATT's version of BellSouth's Birmingham, Atlanta isn't going to be a very fun place to be for that crowd. Which will have ramifications at a much larger scale, far outside telecom. And, yes, we perhaps should've blocked the NYNEX/BA merger in 1997. I think the underlying problem here is with the entire telecom industry caught up in merger mania for the past decade or so, nobody had a clear idea of what they wanted to see when it was all done. Or just how far done was. So, this is much like the pot on the stove, where we as the public/regulators/etc are the frog in the cold water (blissful early 80's) and we can't quite make out when it's time to jump out. I think people are reacting to the brand, the ATT ghost really, since there's none of it left. I don't know if I share that view entirely, knowing how much the ATT brand identity is revered inside (especially inside the baby boomer generation). Think of the scene from Toy Story h, the clw. That gets sort of close to some of my experiences. Whether they can convert I think definitely will be a challenge. We really can't do much more than sit and watch as individuals, and as companies we have to step up our game. If nothing else, this should dump a good number of good people into the now available talent pool, too. But, again, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the integration nightmares these companies will have will open opportunities for smaller, more nimble players. Ultimately, I think Qwest will just wither away and the assets will be sold off in bidding war, post bankruptcy protection. Or maybe it'll be maintained as the fig leaf. Who knows. I'm not sure it matters. In this game, they're the size of Alltel compared with individual RBOCs, and not really much of a factor. Then again, this deal isn't done, VZ might counter bid, divestitures may be required, and regulatory review needs to be conducted, and a number of lawsuits dealt with. So, it'll be a while. But, ah, what a great way to start the morning. ;-) Best regards, Christian
Re: Welcome back, Ma Bell
On Mon, 6 Mar 2006, Christian Kuhtz wrote: That being said, the 'new ATT' with all those assets will need to be integrated, and work efficiently. Turf battles will ensue. Tens of Integration, going on past experience, is highly unlikely. The last time I had any interaction with Worldcom regarding circuit/provisioning issues, there was little, if any integration of legacy engineering/provisioning data/OSSen. In other words, Oh, that's an MFS circuit ID, I'll need to get onto another system to get the details on it. Same thing with different incarnations of Bell of Pennsylv^H^H^H^H^HBell Atl^H^H^H^HVerizon. It's the same phenomenon of having 37 different numbers to call to get anything done at $RBOC, none of which are connected to each other. If their phone tree is that disorganized, I have little reason to suspect the underlying support systems are any different, nor will they be under the SB^H^H^HNew ATT. jms
RE: Welcome back, Ma Bell
Going down to three companies controlling all of the last mile copper doesn't change very much. Regardless of who owns it, there has always been only been one company to get local loop/last mile from. SBC and BellSouth (or BS as I like to call it) have never been in any direct competition. BS has almost complete control over what they like to call the Nine-states region (in terms of facilities). SBC, Verizon, and Quest also had hard regions defined. Outside of BS there may have been some competition in border regions, but everywhere I have dealt with has had little direct land-line/last-mile competition. The best things I see coming out of the merger will be the drive for improvement and innovation. BS is the only one of the RBOCs that I am aware of that has actually been fighting the idea of deploying FTTH/FTTP. BS's official policy still states that they can accomplish all of the things a FTTH network can accomplish using high speed DSL versions such as vDSL. ATT and SBC both have started building out their fiber networks, most relevantly Project Lightspeed at SBC that aims to bring FTTH and IPTV. I think (and hope...) that the merger will result in that build-out EVENTUALLY (perhaps however a long way off still) making it to the BS footprint. The new ATT will have to closely compete and follow with what Verizon does. Besides wireless, the best product Vzw has to offer to home and SOHO users is FIOS, and most of the RBOCs have realized they will need to follow suit. As far as pricing and competition, the merger does not eliminate CLECs. The larger CLECs continue to grow, and the previous RBOC related mergers all included stipulations requiring access to CO's and local copper loops. Perhaps this merger will bring more detail and regulation regarding CLEC use of ILEC facilities. That would be another huge benefit. -Scott
Re: Welcome back, Ma Bell
-BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE- Hash: SHA1 On (06/03/06 09:45), Berkman, Scott wrote: The best things I see coming out of the merger will be the drive for improvement and innovation. having recently lived in a BS-service area I can say that there is no improvement or innovation coming from them. the facilities in south florida are rather old, and BS is in no rush to fix anything...if something breaks beyond some chewing gum and bailing wire fixes, then they will grudgingly replace it, but generally only with copper. there are few areas where they have built out with fiber, but they appear to have laid used fiber in the ground because the line quality is only marginally better than the old copper, and they try to add additional fees since you are off 'new facilities' I am now back in a Qwest area where they have 'innovated' exclusive contracts with all the local apartment and housing developments (at least in my area) to provide similar service to what BS did so while it may not be the same level of control that was present with old Ma Bell, her children are doing all they can my $0.02 /joshua - -- A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. - Douglas Adams - -BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE- Version: GnuPG v1.4.2 (GNU/Linux) iD8DBQFEDHYWJr8VjiIHVH0RApWKAKDBD4/DVRsDf+6kfW0qTVKYLlSHnwCdHgTO o0s5H7qDNqqJVwlMEYV1Zbs= =tvwB -END PGP SIGNATURE-
Re: Welcome back, Ma Bell
Reuters and CNN/Money also reporting same: http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/05/news/companies/att_bellsouth/index.htm Mind-boggling. - ferg -- Suresh Ramasubramanian [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: This is from Dave Farber's list .. Subject: Everything old is new again From: Kevin G. Barkes NEWS ALERT from The Wall Street Journal ATT is planning to acquire BellSouth for roughly $65 billion. A deal between the two could be announced as early as Monday. I somehow wonder if the old executives at Ma Bell had already worked out a timeline for resurrecting her well before she was split up .. --srs -- Suresh Ramasubramanian ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) -- Fergie, a.k.a. Paul Ferguson Engineering Architecture for the Internet [EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED] ferg's tech blog: http://fergdawg.blogspot.com/
Re: Welcome back, Ma Bell
Not that mind-boggling. The FCC under the Bush administration has been a joke from the get-go. (This coming from a very right-leaning independent). This is the ultimate shell game, considering ATT's antics last year. cheers, brian On Sun, 5 Mar 2006, Fergie wrote: : :Reuters and CNN/Money also reporting same: : : http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/05/news/companies/att_bellsouth/index.htm : :Mind-boggling. : :- ferg : : : :-- Suresh Ramasubramanian [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: : :This is from Dave Farber's list .. : : Subject: Everything old is new again : From: Kevin G. Barkes : : NEWS ALERT : from The Wall Street Journal : : ATT is planning to acquire BellSouth for roughly $65 billion. A : deal between the two could be announced as early as Monday. : :I somehow wonder if the old executives at Ma Bell had already worked :out a timeline for resurrecting her well before she was split up .. : :--srs :-- :Suresh Ramasubramanian ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) : : :-- :Fergie, a.k.a. Paul Ferguson : Engineering Architecture for the Internet : [EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED] : ferg's tech blog: http://fergdawg.blogspot.com/ : : : -- ___ Brian Wallingford Director, Network Operations MegaNet Communications, TCIX, Inc. ~~~
RE: Welcome back, Ma Bell
With Katrina and all the other hurricanes hitting Bell south's area, they are just overwhelmed. The prize here is Cingular anyway; the landline business is declining. Since neither SBC nor Bell South have too much interest in FiOS, the harm the consumers near term is minimal. In fact, some of the hurricane-ravaged areas may see upgrades and repairs sooner rather than later. The impact will be felt near term and longer term most by small and mid-sized businesses, especially those run out of the home. Most of the expense of NxT1/T3 (typical speeds needed by small and mid-sized businesses lines are eaten up by the atrocious local-loop charges, which will most likely rise as a result of this deal. Getting Ethernet and/or Fiber to the premises will be a long way away in the areas served by these two companies. Yes there is cable and DSL, but for now these are not as reliable as the dedicated lines that a NxT1 or a T3 would bring. Add the that the need for some to multi-home and the costs continue to rise. This is where the FCC, in the role of regulator, would do the most good. But as someone mentioned in a previous post the FCC is feckless at this point. Bigger is not necessarily better or worse, but when government abdicates its role as the regulator of free markets, it is most definitely worse. Edward Ray
RE: Welcome back, Ma Bell
With Katrina and all the other hurricanes hitting Bell south's area, they are just overwhelmed. The prize here is Cingular anyway; the landline business is declining. Since neither SBC nor Bell South have too much interest in FiOS, the harm the consumers near term is minimal. In fact, some of the hurricane-ravaged areas may see upgrades and repairs sooner rather than later. The impact will be felt near term and longer term most by small and mid-sized businesses, especially those run out of the home. Most of the expense of NxT1/T3 (typical speeds needed by small and mid-sized businesses lines are eaten up by the atrocious local-loop charges, which will most likely rise as a result of this deal. Getting Ethernet and/or Fiber to the premises will be a long way away in the areas served by these two companies. Yes there is cable and DSL, but for now these are not as reliable as the dedicated lines that a NxT1 or a T3 would bring. Add the that the need for some to multi-home and the costs continue to rise. This is where the FCC, in the role of regulator, would do the most good. But as someone mentioned in a previous post the FCC is feckless at this point. Bigger is not necessarily better or worse, but when government abdicates its role as the regulator of free markets, it is most definitely worse. Edward Ray
RE: Welcome back, Ma Bell
You know what they say about opinions... Well, anyways, the main thrust of the concern here is not a technical one -- unless you consider the lack of susbcriber options technical. It is, perhaps, a technicality, but I digress... I guess we'll just have to wait and see how this all plays out. Now -- back to our regularly scheduled diminutives regarding Shim6. :-) - ferg ps. I do wonder, however, whaet Judge Green would think of this, coming on the heels of ATT's 111th birthday (3 March 1885)? :-) -- Edward W. Ray [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: With Katrina and all the other hurricanes hitting Bell south's area, they are just overwhelmed. The prize here is Cingular anyway; the landline business is declining. Since neither SBC nor Bell South have too much interest in FiOS, the harm the consumers near term is minimal. In fact, some of the hurricane-ravaged areas may see upgrades and repairs sooner rather than later. The impact will be felt near term and longer term most by small and mid-sized businesses, especially those run out of the home. Most of the expense of NxT1/T3 (typical speeds needed by small and mid-sized businesses lines are eaten up by the atrocious local-loop charges, which will most likely rise as a result of this deal. Getting Ethernet and/or Fiber to the premises will be a long way away in the areas served by these two companies. Yes there is cable and DSL, but for now these are not as reliable as the dedicated lines that a NxT1 or a T3 would bring. Add the that the need for some to multi-home and the costs continue to rise. This is where the FCC, in the role of regulator, would do the most good. But as someone mentioned in a previous post the FCC is feckless at this point. Bigger is not necessarily better or worse, but when government abdicates its role as the regulator of free markets, it is most definitely worse. Edward Ray -- Fergie, a.k.a. Paul Ferguson Engineering Architecture for the Internet [EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED] ferg's tech blog: http://fergdawg.blogspot.com/
Re: Welcome back, Ma Bell
Eric A. Hall wrote: What are people worried about here exactly? The same lack of competition in telecommunications that we had in the 1980s? Granted, it won't ever be quite *that* bad again, but we're slowly moving back towards one monolithic ILEC, and that does worry me. -- Steve Sobol, Professional Geek 888-480-4638 PGP: 0xE3AE35ED Company website: http://JustThe.net/ Personal blog, resume, portfolio: http://SteveSobol.com/ E: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Snail: 22674 Motnocab Road, Apple Valley, CA 92307
Re: Welcome back, Ma Bell
What are people worried about here exactly? The same lack of competition in telecommunications that we had in the 1980s? Granted, it won't ever be quite *that* bad again, but we're slowly moving back towards one monolithic ILEC, and that does worry me. To worry most is the fact that a single company has all services on a given area: fixed, wireless, long-distance. I don't think that having a single fixed-only company throughout the country would be such a big issue... but having the customer first mile (which some people call last mile, although saying customer comes first) and be allowed to offer LD and wireless is something to be afraid. Be very afraid. Rubens
Re: Welcome back, Ma Bell
On 3/5/2006 7:10 PM, Steve Sobol wrote: Eric A. Hall wrote: What are people worried about here exactly? The same lack of competition in telecommunications that we had in the 1980s? Well that's an overreach. And if the primary concern is consolidation then we should have blocked NYNEX and Bell Atlantic from merging back in 1997, since this deal is basically SBC + BellSouth/Cingular, which is mostly indistinguishable from the earlier one. I think people are reacting to the brand, the ATT ghost really, since there's none of it left. -- Eric A. Hallhttp://www.ehsco.com/ Internet Core Protocols http://www.oreilly.com/catalog/coreprot/
Re: Welcome back, Ma Bell
On Mar 6, 2006, at 3:24 AM, Fergie wrote: An overreach? Really? I'd say that you're not paying attention. Sorry, Fergie, but I gotta disagree with you here. In the 1980s, cell phones were not even close to useable by most people, but now there are lots of people who don't need anything else. Not to mention cable TV providers doing voice. Oh, and that whole VoIP thing. Etc., etc. So I would say that equating the BS SBC^watt merger with the (lack of) choice we had in the 80s an overreach. Really. And how do you come to that conclusion? By the fact that very little of the original ATT is in the current monolith? Well, given the entire 'two-tiered' money-grab-tastic issues involved, I'd say you're a little out of touch. Hey, I didn't say it would be good for the consumer. :) Clearly, this is not the best possible situation for the end user. But the current situation is still much better than the 1980s. And way better than before that. (Remember when it was _illegal_ to own a phone?) One could argue that there were times between 1990 and now that was better for the consumer, but not all of them. IMHO, of course. -- TTFN, patrick -- Eric A. Hall [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On 3/5/2006 7:10 PM, Steve Sobol wrote: Eric A. Hall wrote: What are people worried about here exactly? The same lack of competition in telecommunications that we had in the 1980s? Well that's an overreach. And if the primary concern is consolidation then we should have blocked NYNEX and Bell Atlantic from merging back in 1997, since this deal is basically SBC + BellSouth/Cingular, which is mostly indistinguishable from the earlier one. I think people are reacting to the brand, the ATT ghost really, since there's none of it left. -- Eric A. Hallhttp:// www.ehsco.com/ Internet Core Protocols http://www.oreilly.com/catalog/ coreprot/ -- Fergie, a.k.a. Paul Ferguson Engineering Architecture for the Internet [EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED] ferg's tech blog: http://fergdawg.blogspot.com/
Re: Welcome back, Ma Bell
Nice rant. But since this isn't your blog you'll probably have to grace us with some substance. None of ATT exists anymore--SBC acquired that corpse last year, so the company currently calling itself ATT isn't even really ATT. The new deal is basically SBC buying up BellSouth and getting the rest of Cingular in the deal. I just don't see how this is all that different from the stream of MAs that produced Verizon back in the 90s. Sure it's a big deal, just like that one was. Another giant telco, hoorah. Nightsweats about the ghost of Ma Bell rising? lol no. On 3/5/2006 10:24 PM, Fergie wrote: An overreach? Really? I'd say that you're not paying attention. And how do you come to that conclusion? By the fact that very little of the original ATT is in the current monolith? Well, given the entire 'two-tiered' money-grab-tastic issues involved, I'd say you're a little out of touch. - ferg -- Eric A. Hall [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On 3/5/2006 7:10 PM, Steve Sobol wrote: Eric A. Hall wrote: What are people worried about here exactly? The same lack of competition in telecommunications that we had in the 1980s? Well that's an overreach. And if the primary concern is consolidation then we should have blocked NYNEX and Bell Atlantic from merging back in 1997, since this deal is basically SBC + BellSouth/Cingular, which is mostly indistinguishable from the earlier one. I think people are reacting to the brand, the ATT ghost really, since there's none of it left. -- Eric A. Hallhttp://www.ehsco.com/ Internet Core Protocols http://www.oreilly.com/catalog/coreprot/
