RE: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-14 Thread michael.dillon



---
Michael Dillon
RadianzNet Capacity Forecast  Plan -- BT Design
66 Prescot St., London, E1 8HG, UK
Mobile: +44 7900 823 672 
Internet: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Phone: +44 20 7650 9493 Fax: +44 20 7650 9030
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Use the wiki: http://collaborate.intra.bt.com/  

 

 -Original Message-
 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On 
 Behalf Of David Conrad
 Sent: 13 March 2008 16:49
 To: Jamie Bowden
 Cc: North American Network Operators Group
 Subject: Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 
 on SOHO routers?]
 
 
 Jamie,
 
 On Mar 13, 2008, at 8:42 AM, Jamie Bowden wrote:
  MS, Apple, Linux, *BSD are ALL dual stack out of the box currently.
 
 The fact that the kernel may support IPv6 does not mean that 
 IPv6 is actually usable (as events at NANOG, APRICOT, and the 
 IETF have shown).  There are lots of bits and pieces that are 
 necessary for mere mortals to actually use IPv6.
 
  The core is IPv6/dual stack capable, even if it's not enabled 
  everywhere,
 
 I'm told by some folks who run core networks for a living 
 that while the routers may sling IPv6 packets as fast or 
 faster than IPv4, doing  
 so with ACLs, filter lists, statistics, monitoring, etc., is 
 lacking.   
 What's worse, the vendors aren't spinning the ASICs (which 
 I'm told have a 2 to 3 year lead time from design to being 
 shipped) necessary to do everything core routers are expected 
 to do for IPv6 yet.
 
  and a large chunk of Asia and Europe are running IPv6 right now.
 
 I keep hearing this, but could you indicate what parts of 
 Asia and Europe are running IPv6 right now?  I'm aware, for 
 example, that NTT is using IPv6 for their FLETS service, but 
 that is an internal transport service not connected to the 
 Internet.  I'm unaware (but would be very interested in 
 hearing about) any service in Asia or Europe that is seeing 
 significant IPv6 traffic.
 
  The US Govt. is under mandate to transition to v6 by the end of the 
  year.
 
 I thought parts of the USG were under a mandate to be IPv6 
 capable (whatever that means) by this summer.  If there is a 
 mandate to be running IPv6 within the USG by the end of the 
 year, people are going to have to get very, very busy very, 
 very quickly.
 
  The
  only bits that are missing right now are the routers and 
 switches at  
  the
  edge, and support from transit providers,
 
 My understanding is that there are lots of bits and pieces that are  
 missing in the infrastructure, but that's almost irrelevant.  
 What is  
 _really_ missing is content accessible over IPv6 as it 
 results in the  
 chicken-or-egg problem: without content, few customers will request  
 IPv6.  Without customer requests for IPv6, it's hard to make the  
 business case to deploy the infrastructure to support it.  Without  
 infrastructure to support IPv6, it's hard to make the 
 business case to  
 deploy content on top of IPv6.
 
  and if they're going to keep
  supplying the Fed with gear and connectivity, at least one major  
  player
  in those areas of the NA market is going to HAVE to make it happen.
 
 Remember GOSIP?
 
 Regards,
 -drc
 
 


RE: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-14 Thread michael.dillon

 I'm told by some folks who run core networks for a living 
 that while the routers may sling IPv6 packets as fast or 
 faster than IPv4, doing  
 so with ACLs, filter lists, statistics, monitoring, etc., is 
 lacking.   
 What's worse, the vendors aren't spinning the ASICs (which 
 I'm told have a 2 to 3 year lead time from design to being 
 shipped) necessary to do everything core routers are expected 
 to do for IPv6 yet.

This may mean that you are better off building an IPv6 overlay
using tunnels over an IPv4 core, or using MPLS with 6PE. These
are the sort of detailed questions that people should be asking
their vendors now. Will you really be able to get the expected
work lifetime out of the boxes that you are buying today?

 I thought parts of the USG were under a mandate to be IPv6 
 capable (whatever that means) by this summer.  If there is a 
 mandate to be running IPv6 within the USG by the end of the 
 year, people are going to have to get very, very busy very, 
 very quickly.

Lots of the USG and DOD folks are buying Hexago boxes which
basically means that they are going to talk IPv6 to each other
using tunnels over an IPv4 core network.

--Michael Dillon


Recall: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-14 Thread michael.dillon

Dillon,M,Michael,DMK R would like to recall the message, cost of dual-stack vs 
cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?].


cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Pekka Savola


On Wed, 12 Mar 2008, Leo Bicknell wrote:

In a message written on Wed, Mar 12, 2008 at 03:06:24PM -0500, Frank Bulk - 
iNAME wrote:

Furthermore, he stated that networking equipment companies like Cisco will
be moving away from IPv4 in 5 years or so.  This is the first time I've
heard this posited -- I had a hard believing that, but he claims it with
some authority.  Anyone hear anything like this?  My own opinion is that
we'll see dual-stack for at least a decade or two to come.


ISP's are very good at one thing, driving out unnecessary cost.
Running dual stack increases cost.  While I'm not sure about the 5
year part, I'm sure ISP's will move to disable IPv4 support as soon
as the market will let them as a cost saving measure.  Runing for
decades dual stacked does not make a lot of economic sense for
all involved.


So, can you elaborate why you think the cost of running dual stack is 
higher than the cost of spending timemoney on beind on the bleeding 
edge to do v6-only yet supporting v4 for your existing and future 
customers still wedded to the older IP protocol?


--
Pekka Savola You each name yourselves king, yet the
Netcore Oykingdom bleeds.
Systems. Networks. Security. -- George R.R. Martin: A Clash of Kings


Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread David W. Hankins
On Thu, Mar 13, 2008 at 03:26:48PM +0200, Pekka Savola wrote:
 On Wed, 12 Mar 2008, Leo Bicknell wrote:
 ISP's are very good at one thing, driving out unnecessary cost.
 Running dual stack increases cost.  While I'm not sure about the 5
 year part, I'm sure ISP's will move to disable IPv4 support as soon
 as the market will let them as a cost saving measure.  Runing for
 decades dual stacked does not make a lot of economic sense for
 all involved.
 
 So, can you elaborate why you think the cost of running dual stack is 
 higher than the cost of spending timemoney on beind on the bleeding 
 edge to do v6-only yet supporting v4 for your existing and future 
 customers still wedded to the older IP protocol?

I don't know why Leo thinks so, but even I can observe the extra
recurring support cost of having to work through two stacks with every
customer that dials in as being far greater than any technology
costs in either single-stack scenario.  The 'recurring' part is the
real killer.

-- 
Ash bugud-gul durbatuluk agh burzum-ishi krimpatul.
Why settle for the lesser evil?  https://secure.isc.org/store/t-shirt/
-- 
David W. HankinsIf you don't do it right the first time,
Software Engineeryou'll just have to do it again.
Internet Systems Consortium, Inc.   -- Jack T. Hankins


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Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Pekka Savola


On Thu, 13 Mar 2008, David W. Hankins wrote:

I don't know why Leo thinks so, but even I can observe the extra
recurring support cost of having to work through two stacks with every
customer that dials in as being far greater than any technology
costs in either single-stack scenario.  The 'recurring' part is the
real killer.


If the customer would be v6-only, I agree.

If the customer is v4-only, I would posit that it's in most cases 
impossibleto get the customers upgraded to v6.  I would also argue 
(based on my understanding) that translating or tunneling v4-only 
clients over v6-only network would cause pretty much equal or greater 
complexities as dual-stack.


If the customer is dual-stack, I would agree that v6-only is simpler, 
but that gets back to the point of, does the whole internet support 
v6 or is there alternative, reliable way to reach the rest?  As a 
result you will need to deal with v4 connectivity issues as well.


NB: we have had dual-stack backbone for about 6 years and are not 
seeing major pain.  Sure, v6-only would be even easier in the longer 
term, but as far as I've seen, the major transition issues are at the 
edges, not in the core network.


--
Pekka Savola You each name yourselves king, yet the
Netcore Oykingdom bleeds.
Systems. Networks. Security. -- George R.R. Martin: A Clash of Kings


Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Leo Bicknell
In a message written on Thu, Mar 13, 2008 at 03:26:48PM +0200, Pekka Savola 
wrote:
 On Wed, 12 Mar 2008, Leo Bicknell wrote:
 ISP's are very good at one thing, driving out unnecessary cost.
 Running dual stack increases cost.  While I'm not sure about the 5
 year part, I'm sure ISP's will move to disable IPv4 support as soon
 as the market will let them as a cost saving measure.  Runing for
 decades dual stacked does not make a lot of economic sense for
 all involved.
 
 So, can you elaborate why you think the cost of running dual stack is 
 higher than the cost of spending timemoney on beind on the bleeding 
 edge to do v6-only yet supporting v4 for your existing and future 
 customers still wedded to the older IP protocol?

You are mixing stages of adoption.  The Internet will progress as
follows:

1) Early adopters deploy IPv6 while continuing to make most of their
   money off IPv4.  We're already well into this state.

2) Substantially all ( 90%?) of the Internet is dual stacked, or has
   other transition mechanisms in place.

3) IPv4 is removed from the network, leaving only IPv6.

Your comment compares the cost of phase 1 to the cost of phase two,
making the assumption that it's more expensive to be an early adopter
than it is to run dual stack down the road.  On that point, I agree.

My point is once we're in phase #2 the bean counters will look
around and start to ask can we reduce cost if we remove IPv4.
The answer will be yes.  Initially the answer will be but our
customers will be upset, and it won't happen, but the bean counters
are persistent, and will keep asking the question over and over.
They will make sure phase 2 lasts no longer than it must.

Which brings us into phase 3.  While engineers may see it as simple
clean up, large networks will see phase 3 has a huge money saving
operation by that point in time.  Once the first major (top 10?)
network removes IPv4 support I expect all the rest to follow within
2 years, tops.  Edge and nitche networks may support it longer, but
it will drop from the Internet core quickly.

The specific original comment was that we would run dual-stacked, that
is in phase 2, for decades.  I proport there are strong economic
reasons why that is probably not ging to be the case.

-- 
   Leo Bicknell - [EMAIL PROTECTED] - CCIE 3440
PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/


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Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Pekka Savola


On Thu, 13 Mar 2008, Leo Bicknell wrote:

1) Early adopters deploy IPv6 while continuing to make most of their
  money off IPv4.  We're already well into this state.

2) Substantially all ( 90%?) of the Internet is dual stacked, or has
  other transition mechanisms in place.


Who has the other transition mechanisms in place?  What is the cost of 
deploying those transition mechanisms?  At present it's not obvious 
how you can explain to the bean counters that deploying these are 
profitable.



3) IPv4 is removed from the network, leaving only IPv6.

Your comment compares the cost of phase 1 to the cost of phase two,
making the assumption that it's more expensive to be an early adopter
than it is to run dual stack down the road.  On that point, I agree.


That's not all.  I also tried to point out that in order to get to 2), 
you're facing a decade of slow transition or you have to deploy 
transition mechanisms which have substantial cost.  A transition 
mechanism is also needed to move from 2) to 3).


My point is that it seems somewhat premature to talk extensively of 2) 
- 3) transition because we haven't even figured out 1) - 2) yet. 
Getting to 2) is the challenge, from there it is straightforward.



My point is once we're in phase #2 the bean counters will look
around and start to ask can we reduce cost if we remove IPv4.


I agree but you don't clearly address how exactly we're going to get 
to 2) in the first place -- that's a huge step.  In order to move to 
stage 2), a LOT of deployment is needed and/or a lot of transition 
mechanisms (mainly translation in this context, I assume) need to be 
deployed which has significant cost involved.


I agree that if 90% or 99% of net is dual-stack or using a working 
transition mechanisms (so the expectation is that almost everything 
would work with v6-only), the jump to 3) will be relatively quick for 
the reasons you say.


We've been a decade in step 1).  We'll likely continue to be another 
decade in step 1) before moving to 2) unless radical transition 
technology is developed and deployed in a significant scale (and 
someone figures out a business model how it helps in the short term). 
Once we get 2), the time it takes to move to 3) is probably almost an 
order of magnitude less than what it took to get to 2).



The specific original comment was that we would run dual-stacked, that
is in phase 2, for decades.  I proport there are strong economic
reasons why that is probably not ging to be the case.


I may interpret your steps differently, but I see at least a decade 
more of work before we get to step 2) (i.e., before we get to 90% 
penetration).


--
Pekka Savola You each name yourselves king, yet the
Netcore Oykingdom bleeds.
Systems. Networks. Security. -- George R.R. Martin: A Clash of Kings


Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Leo Bicknell
In a message written on Thu, Mar 13, 2008 at 05:18:16PM +0200, Pekka Savola 
wrote:
 Who has the other transition mechanisms in place?  What is the cost of 
 deploying those transition mechanisms?  At present it's not obvious 
 how you can explain to the bean counters that deploying these are 
 profitable.

It's very hard, so most people aren't deploying, yet.

 My point is that it seems somewhat premature to talk extensively of 2) 
 - 3) transition because we haven't even figured out 1) - 2) yet. 
 Getting to 2) is the challenge, from there it is straightforward.

The driver for 1-2 is the end of the IPv4 free pool.  It doesn't
much matter if the cause is IPv4 simply not being available anymore,
or if the result is some way of moving IPv4 addresses around for
money; they both will get the bean counters attention real quick.
In essense the cost of IPv4 is going to dramatically rise, one way
or another.

And that's only the first order effect of getting the addresses.
Second order effects like hanling the routing table deaggregation
haven't begun to be calculated.

So basically the IPv4 free pool exhaustion will drive 1-2 rather
rapidly.  Once we're in state 2, simple economics will drive the
2-3 transtion rather rapidly.

20 years ago was 1988.  The World Wide Web did not even exist.  AOL
(the first service branded under that name) wasn't launched until
1989.  A T1 served an enter university campus.  9600 baud was a
fast modem.  In essense, the entire industry as we know it was built
in the last 20 years.

Now think hard about a prediction we'll still be running IPv4 in 20
years.  A two decade transition period just does not fit this industry's
history.

-- 
   Leo Bicknell - [EMAIL PROTECTED] - CCIE 3440
PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/


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RE: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Jamie Bowden


MS, Apple, Linux, *BSD are ALL dual stack out of the box currently.  The
core is IPv6/dual stack capable, even if it's not enabled everywhere,
and a large chunk of Asia and Europe are running IPv6 right now.  The US
Govt. is under mandate to transition to v6 by the end of the year.  The
only bits that are missing right now are the routers and switches at the
edge, and support from transit providers, and if they're going to keep
supplying the Fed with gear and connectivity, at least one major player
in those areas of the NA market is going to HAVE to make it happen.
From there, I'd expect a slow but steady uptake across the rest of North
America.

-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of
Pekka Savola
Sent: Thursday, March 13, 2008 11:18 AM
To: Leo Bicknell
Cc: nanog@merit.edu
Subject: Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO
routers?]


On Thu, 13 Mar 2008, Leo Bicknell wrote:
 1) Early adopters deploy IPv6 while continuing to make most of their
   money off IPv4.  We're already well into this state.

 2) Substantially all ( 90%?) of the Internet is dual stacked, or has
   other transition mechanisms in place.

Who has the other transition mechanisms in place?  What is the cost of 
deploying those transition mechanisms?  At present it's not obvious 
how you can explain to the bean counters that deploying these are 
profitable.

 3) IPv4 is removed from the network, leaving only IPv6.

 Your comment compares the cost of phase 1 to the cost of phase two,
 making the assumption that it's more expensive to be an early adopter
 than it is to run dual stack down the road.  On that point, I agree.

That's not all.  I also tried to point out that in order to get to 2), 
you're facing a decade of slow transition or you have to deploy 
transition mechanisms which have substantial cost.  A transition 
mechanism is also needed to move from 2) to 3).

My point is that it seems somewhat premature to talk extensively of 2) 
- 3) transition because we haven't even figured out 1) - 2) yet. 
Getting to 2) is the challenge, from there it is straightforward.

 My point is once we're in phase #2 the bean counters will look
 around and start to ask can we reduce cost if we remove IPv4.

I agree but you don't clearly address how exactly we're going to get 
to 2) in the first place -- that's a huge step.  In order to move to 
stage 2), a LOT of deployment is needed and/or a lot of transition 
mechanisms (mainly translation in this context, I assume) need to be 
deployed which has significant cost involved.

I agree that if 90% or 99% of net is dual-stack or using a working 
transition mechanisms (so the expectation is that almost everything 
would work with v6-only), the jump to 3) will be relatively quick for 
the reasons you say.

We've been a decade in step 1).  We'll likely continue to be another 
decade in step 1) before moving to 2) unless radical transition 
technology is developed and deployed in a significant scale (and 
someone figures out a business model how it helps in the short term). 
Once we get 2), the time it takes to move to 3) is probably almost an 
order of magnitude less than what it took to get to 2).

 The specific original comment was that we would run dual-stacked, that
 is in phase 2, for decades.  I proport there are strong economic
 reasons why that is probably not ging to be the case.

I may interpret your steps differently, but I see at least a decade 
more of work before we get to step 2) (i.e., before we get to 90% 
penetration).

-- 
Pekka Savola You each name yourselves king, yet the
Netcore Oykingdom bleeds.
Systems. Networks. Security. -- George R.R. Martin: A Clash of Kings


RE: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread michael.dillon


 I don't know why Leo thinks so, but even I can observe the 
 extra recurring support cost of having to work through two 
 stacks with every customer that dials in as being far 
 greater than any technology costs in either single-stack 
 scenario.  The 'recurring' part is the real killer.

This is why any ISP that has not moved their core network
over to MPLS, really needs to take a serious look at doing
so now. If you do this then you only really need to support
IPv6 on your edge routers (MPLS PE) which are used to connect
IPv6 customers. Those PEs will use 6PE to provide native IPv6
to your customers.

Dual stack is not the only solution.

Note that it is also possible to use something like GRE tunnels
over IP4 to build an IPv6 overlay. Depending on the scale of
your network (and your capital budget) this may also be an 
attractive way to ease into IPv6 without changing everything.

There is a whole smorgasbord of choices to make. It's not an
easy slam-dunk proposition and you can't just find someone
to tell you how to handle your network situation. It's not
like the early 1990's when you could get away with following
the crowd.

--Michael Dillon


Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread David Barak

--- On Thu, 3/13/08, Leo Bicknell [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Now think hard about a prediction we'll still be
 running IPv4 in 20
 years.  A two decade transition period just does not fit
 this industry's
 history.

To be fair, I've encourntered an awful lot of SNA which is still out there, so 
you might be surprised how long things linger.  But your point is well taken - 
once IPv4 stops being the primary internetworking protocol, it'll be reduced to 
special cases pretty quickly.

David Barak
Need Geek Rock?  Try The Franchise: 
http://www.listentothefranchise.com



  

Looking for last minute shopping deals?  
Find them fast with Yahoo! Search.  
http://tools.search.yahoo.com/newsearch/category.php?category=shopping


Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread David Conrad


Jamie,

On Mar 13, 2008, at 8:42 AM, Jamie Bowden wrote:

MS, Apple, Linux, *BSD are ALL dual stack out of the box currently.


The fact that the kernel may support IPv6 does not mean that IPv6 is  
actually usable (as events at NANOG, APRICOT, and the IETF have  
shown).  There are lots of bits and pieces that are necessary for mere  
mortals to actually use IPv6.


The core is IPv6/dual stack capable, even if it's not enabled  
everywhere,


I'm told by some folks who run core networks for a living that while  
the routers may sling IPv6 packets as fast or faster than IPv4, doing  
so with ACLs, filter lists, statistics, monitoring, etc., is lacking.   
What's worse, the vendors aren't spinning the ASICs (which I'm told  
have a 2 to 3 year lead time from design to being shipped) necessary  
to do everything core routers are expected to do for IPv6 yet.



and a large chunk of Asia and Europe are running IPv6 right now.


I keep hearing this, but could you indicate what parts of Asia and  
Europe are running IPv6 right now?  I'm aware, for example, that NTT  
is using IPv6 for their FLETS service, but that is an internal  
transport service not connected to the Internet.  I'm unaware (but  
would be very interested in hearing about) any service in Asia or  
Europe that is seeing significant IPv6 traffic.


The US Govt. is under mandate to transition to v6 by the end of the  
year.


I thought parts of the USG were under a mandate to be IPv6  
capable (whatever that means) by this summer.  If there is a mandate  
to be running IPv6 within the USG by the end of the year, people are  
going to have to get very, very busy very, very quickly.



The
only bits that are missing right now are the routers and switches at  
the

edge, and support from transit providers,


My understanding is that there are lots of bits and pieces that are  
missing in the infrastructure, but that's almost irrelevant.  What is  
_really_ missing is content accessible over IPv6 as it results in the  
chicken-or-egg problem: without content, few customers will request  
IPv6.  Without customer requests for IPv6, it's hard to make the  
business case to deploy the infrastructure to support it.  Without  
infrastructure to support IPv6, it's hard to make the business case to  
deploy content on top of IPv6.



and if they're going to keep
supplying the Fed with gear and connectivity, at least one major  
player

in those areas of the NA market is going to HAVE to make it happen.


Remember GOSIP?

Regards,
-drc



Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread John Curran

At 9:48 AM -0700 3/13/08, David Conrad wrote:
  What is _really_ missing is content accessible over IPv6 as it results in 
 the chicken-or-egg problem: without content, few customers will request IPv6. 
  Without customer requests for IPv6, it's hard to make the business case to 
 deploy the infrastructure to support it.

If ISP's are waiting for new IPv6-only content to create customer
demand to justify their business case for IPv6 enablement, then
that's their choice.

Reality will win in the end, and my $$ will be on the providers who
justified their IPv6 enablement on being able to continue to grow.

/John


Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Randy Bush

 and a large chunk of Asia and Europe are running IPv6 right now.
 I keep hearing this, but could you indicate what parts of Asia and
 Europe are running IPv6 right now?  I'm aware, for example, that NTT is
 using IPv6 for their FLETS service, but that is an internal transport
 service not connected to the Internet.  I'm unaware (but would be very
 interested in hearing about) any service in Asia or Europe that is
 seeing significant IPv6 traffic.

you mean aside from the ipv6 forum mailing list?  [ note that ipv6 forum
members do not actually run ipv6, they just think other people should. ]

the stats i am seeing, and they are not really great measurements, but
they're what we have, are coming up on 1% ipv6 traffic.  and this is
pretty much the same asia, europe, and north america, with less down south.

 My understanding is that there are lots of bits and pieces that are
 missing in the infrastructure, but that's almost irrelevant.  What is
 _really_ missing is content accessible over IPv6 as it results in the
 chicken-or-egg problem: without content, few customers will request
 IPv6.  Without customer requests for IPv6, it's hard to make the
 business case to deploy the infrastructure to support it.  Without
 infrastructure to support IPv6, it's hard to make the business case to
 deploy content on top of IPv6.

actally, drc, here is where you and i diverge.  there will never be
demand for ipv6 from the end user.  they just want their mtv, and do not
care if it comes on ipv4, ipv6, or donkey-back.

it is we operators, and the enterprise base, which will feel the ipv4
squeeze and need to seek alternatives.  and, imiho, ipv6 is the
preferable alternative we have today.  and it is we the operators who
get to make it deployable so that the customers will not have to care
how their mtv is delivered.

and the chicks ain't free.

randy


Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Stuart Henderson

On 2008-03-13, David Conrad [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
   What is  
 _really_ missing is content accessible over IPv6 as it results in the  
 chicken-or-egg problem: without content, few customers will request  
 IPv6.

There are already things like http://ipv6.google.com/, though
content which is _only_ available over IPv6 is probably more likely
to stimulate demand.




Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Andrew Burnette


Stuart Henderson wrote:

On 2008-03-13, David Conrad [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  What is  
_really_ missing is content accessible over IPv6 as it results in the  
chicken-or-egg problem: without content, few customers will request  
IPv6.


There are already things like http://ipv6.google.com/, though
content which is _only_ available over IPv6 is probably more likely
to stimulate demand.




But there's no $$ benefit for being either the chicken or the egg.

The carriers (many still with oversized debt loads) don't see any 
advantage for deployment in a general sense. But they'll likely have an 
easier time than access providers.


it's a 'no thanks, but I need more address space' for many of the access 
providers, given the orders of magnitude of ports, customers, customer 
care, billing systems and so on that may have to be updated to handle 
yet another layer in their networks.


And content providers without an audience are just toying around. Maybe 
they'll have the easiest time. hard to say.


It's almost like the volunteer line, where everyone else in line has to 
step back so that someone gets stuck being first doing the dirty work.


Same for the end user. They don't care how a microwave oven works, they 
simply toss in a bag, press the popcorn button and expect results.


regards,
andy


Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread David Conrad


Randy,


actally, drc, here is where you and i diverge.  there will never be
demand for ipv6 from the end user.  they just want their mtv, and do  
not

care if it comes on ipv4, ipv6, or donkey-back.


I agree.  What I meant was that customers will demand content and  
since that content is available (largely exclusively) over IPv4, it  
will be difficult to make the business case to deploy IPv6.



it is we operators, and the enterprise base, which will feel the ipv4
squeeze and need to seek alternatives.  and, imiho, ipv6 is the
preferable alternative we have today.


I can see a case being made for converting an ISP's network to IPv6- 
only with edges (both customer facing as well as core facing, the  
latter being the tricky bit) that take v4 packets and tunnel them  
across the v6 infrastructure since the ISP would then be unconstrained  
on infrastructure growth and be able to use all their existing v4  
holdings to connect customers.  This also provides those customers  
that are dual stacked (and who haven't turned off v6 because that's  
what the ISP/software vendor/etc. call center told them to do) native  
v6 connectivity.


However, more realistically, I fear we're more likely to see a world  
of multi-layer NAT because (a) the technology exists, (b) the ISP  
doesn't have to learn much (if anything) new, and (c) it fits nicely  
into a walled garden business model that permits the ISP to sell  
value added services (e.g., a mere additional $5/month if you'd  
like port X forwarded.).


Blech.

Regards,
-drc



Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread David Conrad



There are already things like http://ipv6.google.com/,


True, since yesterday.  However, while I applaud their efforts, Google  
is still primarily a search engine.  How much of the content Google  
serves up is accessible via IPv6?  I might suggest reviewing http://bgp.he.net/ipv6-progress-report.cgi 
...


Regards,
-drc



Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Justin M. Streiner


On Thu, 13 Mar 2008, David Conrad wrote:


There are already things like http://ipv6.google.com/,
True, since yesterday.  However, while I applaud their efforts, Google is 
still primarily a search engine.  How much of the content Google serves up is 
accessible via IPv6?  I might suggest reviewing 
http://bgp.he.net/ipv6-progress-report.cgi...


Google is still a search engine, but through many of the products they've 
grown in-house (GMail, etc...) and acquired (YouTube, etc...), they 
control a growing amount of content


jms


Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]

2008-03-13 Thread Kevin Oberman
 From: David Conrad [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2008 09:48:43 -0700
 Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 
 
 Jamie,
 
 On Mar 13, 2008, at 8:42 AM, Jamie Bowden wrote:
  MS, Apple, Linux, *BSD are ALL dual stack out of the box currently.
 
 The fact that the kernel may support IPv6 does not mean that IPv6 is  
 actually usable (as events at NANOG, APRICOT, and the IETF have  
 shown).  There are lots of bits and pieces that are necessary for mere  
 mortals to actually use IPv6.
 
  The core is IPv6/dual stack capable, even if it's not enabled  
  everywhere,
 
 I'm told by some folks who run core networks for a living that while  
 the routers may sling IPv6 packets as fast or faster than IPv4, doing  
 so with ACLs, filter lists, statistics, monitoring, etc., is lacking.   
 What's worse, the vendors aren't spinning the ASICs (which I'm told  
 have a 2 to 3 year lead time from design to being shipped) necessary  
 to do everything core routers are expected to do for IPv6 yet.
 
  and a large chunk of Asia and Europe are running IPv6 right now.
 
 I keep hearing this, but could you indicate what parts of Asia and  
 Europe are running IPv6 right now?  I'm aware, for example, that NTT  
 is using IPv6 for their FLETS service, but that is an internal  
 transport service not connected to the Internet.  I'm unaware (but  
 would be very interested in hearing about) any service in Asia or  
 Europe that is seeing significant IPv6 traffic.
 
  The US Govt. is under mandate to transition to v6 by the end of the  
  year.
 
 I thought parts of the USG were under a mandate to be IPv6  
 capable (whatever that means) by this summer.  If there is a mandate  
 to be running IPv6 within the USG by the end of the year, people are  
 going to have to get very, very busy very, very quickly.
 
  The
  only bits that are missing right now are the routers and switches at  
  the
  edge, and support from transit providers,
 
 My understanding is that there are lots of bits and pieces that are  
 missing in the infrastructure, but that's almost irrelevant.  What is  
 _really_ missing is content accessible over IPv6 as it results in the  
 chicken-or-egg problem: without content, few customers will request  
 IPv6.  Without customer requests for IPv6, it's hard to make the  
 business case to deploy the infrastructure to support it.  Without  
 infrastructure to support IPv6, it's hard to make the business case to  
 deploy content on top of IPv6.
 
  and if they're going to keep
  supplying the Fed with gear and connectivity, at least one major  
  player
  in those areas of the NA market is going to HAVE to make it happen.
 
 Remember GOSIP?

Oh, boy, do I remember GOSIP. Deja vu, in too many ways.

Just to clarify, the current mandates for US government IPv6
implementation is quite constrained.

1. For some time computer equipment/software had to be IPv6 capable. No
definition of 'capable' and the usual weasel words so that it's not
really hard to ge around, but it move IPv6 up the check-list quite a
ways. 

2. The implementation mandate is restricted to government 'backbone'
networks. That really means that US Government network providers which
connect government facilities need to be capable of running IPv6. Not
end systems, LANS, or any networks within a single facility.

This means DREN, DISA, DOJ, DOI, DOE, etc. networks need to support
IPv6, but networks at a laboratory or military base don't and no end
systems or servers need to do IPv6. It is possible that an infrstructure
support service like DNS, at least for addresses in the external nets,
will need IPv6 support, but not facility servers.

It is likely (nearly certain) that the requirements for IPv6 will expand
to cover facility networks and end systems, but it is not clear that
they will actually require IPv6 user, just capability, though this is
also considered as likely.
-- 
R. Kevin Oberman, Network Engineer
Energy Sciences Network (ESnet)
Ernest O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab)
E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]   Phone: +1 510 486-8634
Key fingerprint:059B 2DDF 031C 9BA3 14A4  EADA 927D EBB3 987B 3751


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