Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
> On 2009-10-11, at 19:22 , Joe Greco wrote: > > (*) In the late 1990's, I heard the most astonishing claims made by > > a new > > entrant into the Milwaukee ISP market, about how some of the "other" > > ISP's > > "shared" lines between customers and this decreased your speeds. > > They had > > no clue who I was, so I engaged their technical person for a while > > who set > > out to convince me that other ISP's really _did_ do this mythical > > line- > > sharing - multiple modems to one port. Until I started talking > > about the > > technical aspects, that is. > > Not so mythical. Around the same time period, we found out about an > ISP offering always-on ISDN BRI service for such a low price that it > could not possibly make sense. We wondered how they could make ends > meet at that rate until we found out how they did it. They daisy > chained multiple customers' BRI lines together, using the second B > channel from one customer to connect the next customer down the line. > Once, one of their customers switched to our service and we > reconfigured their router (a legitimate action: both router and BRI > line belonged to the customer). Who knows how many downstream > customers we broke by doing that. A virtual ISDN party line! Cool! :-) ... JG -- Joe Greco - sol.net Network Services - Milwaukee, WI - http://www.sol.net "We call it the 'one bite at the apple' rule. Give me one chance [and] then I won't contact you again." - Direct Marketing Ass'n position on e-mail spam(CNN) With 24 million small businesses in the US alone, that's way too many apples.
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
On 2009-10-11, at 19:22 , Joe Greco wrote: (*) In the late 1990's, I heard the most astonishing claims made by a new entrant into the Milwaukee ISP market, about how some of the "other" ISP's "shared" lines between customers and this decreased your speeds. They had no clue who I was, so I engaged their technical person for a while who set out to convince me that other ISP's really _did_ do this mythical line- sharing - multiple modems to one port. Until I started talking about the technical aspects, that is. Not so mythical. Around the same time period, we found out about an ISP offering always-on ISDN BRI service for such a low price that it could not possibly make sense. We wondered how they could make ends meet at that rate until we found out how they did it. They daisy chained multiple customers' BRI lines together, using the second B channel from one customer to connect the next customer down the line. Once, one of their customers switched to our service and we reconfigured their router (a legitimate action: both router and BRI line belonged to the customer). Who knows how many downstream customers we broke by doing that. -Phil
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
On 10-Oct-09, at 10:23 PM, Lorell Hathcock wrote: Could you point to the documentation? Well, a friend at one particular large internet exchange says he can predict semi-accurately the ambient temperature/ weather in the local city from the MRTG stats. :-) The stats he showed me backed him up - or at least clearly showed strong correlation between weather and traffic levels. The formal proof is left as an exercise for the reader. ;-P This has nothing to do with corrosion and all about usage and congestion. Cold weather leads to more people snuggling up with their laptops. In sunny warm weather everyone gets away from the kb and goes outside to have a real life. cheers, --dr -- World Security Pros. Cutting Edge Training, Tools, and Techniques Tokyo, Japan November 4/5 2009 http://pacsec.jp Vancouver, Canada March 22-26 http://cansecwest.com Amsterdam, Netherlands June 16/17 http://eusecwest.com pgpkey http://dragos.com/ kyxpgp
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
> Maybe I'm way off.. Maybe its view of KISS but as engineers we should > all be looking for the simplest answer. To me they key in Dragos' > post was usage. All physics aside, the warm weather (seasonal) people > go out more, use the internet less. In cold months, we stay in, use > the net more. As for document any of us that run networks have seen > this well document going back many years in our mrgt graphs. But > then maybe he was refering to the physics, and I just try to simplify > things to much. Usage has an effect on overcommit, yes. However, when you notice that the average connect speed goes down for a day or two after a cold heavy rain, that's not usage. There are not more than one modems connecting(*) to a port. So you have established that something about the quality of the physical layer has been affected. ... JG (*) In the late 1990's, I heard the most astonishing claims made by a new entrant into the Milwaukee ISP market, about how some of the "other" ISP's "shared" lines between customers and this decreased your speeds. They had no clue who I was, so I engaged their technical person for a while who set out to convince me that other ISP's really _did_ do this mythical line- sharing - multiple modems to one port. Until I started talking about the technical aspects, that is. -- Joe Greco - sol.net Network Services - Milwaukee, WI - http://www.sol.net "We call it the 'one bite at the apple' rule. Give me one chance [and] then I won't contact you again." - Direct Marketing Ass'n position on e-mail spam(CNN) With 24 million small businesses in the US alone, that's way too many apples.
RE: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
Having worked in Operations at various ISPs in rain-riddled Houston for 1.5 decades, I can say that when it rains, water gets into the copper lines in the ground and caused increased copper-based local loop failures. That experience leaves me open to believe that where the internet backbone is copper based, when it rains, failures may ensue due to old or improperly installed outside plant and could cause failures which would slow down the internet. I would also conjecture that more people would be on line during bad weather, so that internet usage would increase and perhaps over-wrought links (copper or otherwise) could have some congestion. Finally, in those places where the internet is experienced through wireless links, some may see weather related slow downs. On Oct 9, 2009, at 5:38 PM, Dragos Ruiu wrote: > Well, since it's been documented that internet speed / usage varies > with > the weather (it gets faster when it's sunny, slower when it rains) > I'm sure some > seasonal correlation could be found. Could you point to the documentation? I having trouble with language that sounds like one concept and I suspect is in fact another. Take as one example the basic digital signaling hierarchy. The specifications call for a certain rate plus or minus some number of parts per million. If they are within tolerance, the amount that they would speed up or slow down is measured in a pretty small number of bits per second. So I don't think the speed of the links is materially changing. If on the other hand we are discussing the volume of traffic using that available capacity, it is absolutely clear that there are diurnal, weekly, and seasonal variations as well as growth in time. Are we talking about bit rate, which one might expect to be modified by environmental characteristics and is in fact very tightly controlled to prevent that, or traffic volume?
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
On Sat, Oct 10, 2009, Fred Baker wrote: > Are we talking about bit rate, which one might expect to be modified > by environmental characteristics and is in fact very tightly > controlled to prevent that, or traffic volume? Not true with modem type technologies, where the available transmission rate is a function of how many available frequency space slices are deemed to be "good" at any one time. This isn't really like SDH (from what I've read of SDH, anyway.) Adrian
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
Maybe I'm way off.. Maybe its view of KISS but as engineers we should all be looking for the simplest answer. To me they key in Dragos' post was usage. All physics aside, the warm weather (seasonal) people go out more, use the internet less. In cold months, we stay in, use the net more. As for document any of us that run networks have seen this well document going back many years in our mrgt graphs. But then maybe he was refering to the physics, and I just try to simplify things to much. Have. Good weekend all! -jim Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network -Original Message- From: "Frank A. Coluccio" Date: Sat, 10 Oct 2009 17:32:36 To: Fred Baker Cc: ; Subject: Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season? Hi Fred. I think you are referring, in the case of hierarchical synchronous architectures (SONET/SDH), to the absolute periodicity of the timing coming from clock sources. Frame slips and overwrites can occur when too many ppm lagging or leading are exceeded, as I believe was implied in your post. In contrast, I believe the notions that are being discussed in this thread have more to do with the effects of temperature coefficients of metallic conductors during shifts in outside temperature conditions, and the ensuing changes in the nominal velocity of propagation that accompany those changes, relative to the speed of light. In any case, I have been following this discussion from its beginning with a great amount of interest, finding it a great memory jogger from times misspent in my youth. I started a parallel discussion on my forum, where today I responded to another poster with the following observations, for anyone interested. [1]http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26010089 Frank --- f...@cisco.com wrote: From: Fred Baker To: Dragos Ruiu Cc: nanog@nanog.org, Joe Greco Subject: Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season? Date: Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:27:07 -0700 On Oct 9, 2009, at 5:38 PM, Dragos Ruiu wrote: > Well, since it's been documented that internet speed / usage varies > with > the weather (it gets faster when it's sunny, slower when it rains) > I'm sure some > seasonal correlation could be found. Could you point to the documentation? I having trouble with language that sounds like one concept and I suspect is in fact another. Take as one example the basic digital signaling hierarchy. The specifications call for a certain rate plus or minus some number of parts per million. If they are within tolerance, the amount that they would speed up or slow down is measured in a pretty small number of bits per second. So I don't think the speed of the links is materially changing. If on the other hand we are discussing the volume of traffic using that available capacity, it is absolutely clear that there are diurnal, weekly, and seasonal variations as well as growth in time. Are we talking about bit rate, which one might expect to be modified by environmental characteristics and is in fact very tightly controlled to prevent that, or traffic volume? References 1. http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26010089
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
Hi Fred. I think you are referring, in the case of hierarchical synchronous architectures (SONET/SDH), to the absolute periodicity of the timing coming from clock sources. Frame slips and overwrites can occur when too many ppm lagging or leading are exceeded, as I believe was implied in your post. In contrast, I believe the notions that are being discussed in this thread have more to do with the effects of temperature coefficients of metallic conductors during shifts in outside temperature conditions, and the ensuing changes in the nominal velocity of propagation that accompany those changes, relative to the speed of light. In any case, I have been following this discussion from its beginning with a great amount of interest, finding it a great memory jogger from times misspent in my youth. I started a parallel discussion on my forum, where today I responded to another poster with the following observations, for anyone interested. [1]http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26010089 Frank --- f...@cisco.com wrote: From: Fred Baker To: Dragos Ruiu Cc: nanog@nanog.org, Joe Greco Subject: Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season? Date: Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:27:07 -0700 On Oct 9, 2009, at 5:38 PM, Dragos Ruiu wrote: > Well, since it's been documented that internet speed / usage varies > with > the weather (it gets faster when it's sunny, slower when it rains) > I'm sure some > seasonal correlation could be found. Could you point to the documentation? I having trouble with language that sounds like one concept and I suspect is in fact another. Take as one example the basic digital signaling hierarchy. The specifications call for a certain rate plus or minus some number of parts per million. If they are within tolerance, the amount that they would speed up or slow down is measured in a pretty small number of bits per second. So I don't think the speed of the links is materially changing. If on the other hand we are discussing the volume of traffic using that available capacity, it is absolutely clear that there are diurnal, weekly, and seasonal variations as well as growth in time. Are we talking about bit rate, which one might expect to be modified by environmental characteristics and is in fact very tightly controlled to prevent that, or traffic volume? References 1. http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26010089
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
On Oct 9, 2009, at 5:38 PM, Dragos Ruiu wrote: Well, since it's been documented that internet speed / usage varies with the weather (it gets faster when it's sunny, slower when it rains) I'm sure some seasonal correlation could be found. Could you point to the documentation? I having trouble with language that sounds like one concept and I suspect is in fact another. Take as one example the basic digital signaling hierarchy. The specifications call for a certain rate plus or minus some number of parts per million. If they are within tolerance, the amount that they would speed up or slow down is measured in a pretty small number of bits per second. So I don't think the speed of the links is materially changing. If on the other hand we are discussing the volume of traffic using that available capacity, it is absolutely clear that there are diurnal, weekly, and seasonal variations as well as growth in time. Are we talking about bit rate, which one might expect to be modified by environmental characteristics and is in fact very tightly controlled to prevent that, or traffic volume?
RE: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
I may be missing a little bit here by jumping a bit in the thread so sorry. What is the difference between weather and seasonal? I define weather like, well its cloudy and raining here and get in the car and drive 20 minutes and it is clear and sunny. I would call this mostly localized, like ground zero. Nice here bad 15 miles/minutes away. Seasonal, well I think of Seattle, almost always rain/clouds..., more than a 15 minute/mile radius. Seasonal reminds me more of say, for months straight the ground/air is well, frozen. Like the northeast, where I used to live and will never go back. Just my .02, I'll shut up now. -Original Message- From: Dragos Ruiu [mailto:d...@kyx.net] Sent: Friday, October 09, 2009 8:38 PM To: s...@emanon.com Cc: nanog@nanog.org; Joe Greco Subject: Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season? On 7-Oct-09, at 11:22 AM, Scott Morris wrote: > I may be having my wires a little crossed (I'm not an electrical > engineer) but I was always under the impression that manipulation of > the > physical characteristics like that from heat/dampness didn't reduce > the > "speed" but the "quality" (like line noise/errors/etc) of the line. Well, since it's been documented that internet speed / usage varies with the weather (it gets faster when it's sunny, slower when it rains) I'm sure some seasonal correlation could be found. cheers, --dr -- World Security Pros. Cutting Edge Training, Tools, and Techniques Tokyo, Japan November 4/5 2009 http://pacsec.jp Vancouver, Canada March 22-26 http://cansecwest.com Amsterdam, Netherlands June 16/17 http://eusecwest.com pgpkey http://dragos.com/ kyxpgp
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
On 7-Oct-09, at 11:22 AM, Scott Morris wrote: I may be having my wires a little crossed (I'm not an electrical engineer) but I was always under the impression that manipulation of the physical characteristics like that from heat/dampness didn't reduce the "speed" but the "quality" (like line noise/errors/etc) of the line. Well, since it's been documented that internet speed / usage varies with the weather (it gets faster when it's sunny, slower when it rains) I'm sure some seasonal correlation could be found. cheers, --dr -- World Security Pros. Cutting Edge Training, Tools, and Techniques Tokyo, Japan November 4/5 2009 http://pacsec.jp Vancouver, Canada March 22-26 http://cansecwest.com Amsterdam, Netherlands June 16/17 http://eusecwest.com pgpkey http://dragos.com/ kyxpgp
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
> I may be having my wires a little crossed (I'm not an electrical > engineer) but I was always under the impression that manipulation of the > physical characteristics like that from heat/dampness didn't reduce the > "speed" but the "quality" (like line noise/errors/etc) of the line. > > Whether old telco lines or newer data lines it's all about electrical > signal and bit error rates. More errors = more retransmissions = slower > perceived throughput. > > Just my thinking. Reduced quality results in reduced speed. In the best case, you have a technology like DSL that detects the reduced quality, and dynamically adjusts transmission characteristics to adapt. In other cases, you have a technology like Ethernet where misdetection of bits results in the loss of a packet, and ultimately requires retransmission. ... JG -- Joe Greco - sol.net Network Services - Milwaukee, WI - http://www.sol.net "We call it the 'one bite at the apple' rule. Give me one chance [and] then I won't contact you again." - Direct Marketing Ass'n position on e-mail spam(CNN) With 24 million small businesses in the US alone, that's way too many apples.
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
Ignoring the little distractions, and taking a 30,000 ft view on this topic, my thoughts were always that backbone capacity gets behind, and backbone takes time to provision. Then it catches up, or leap frogs demand just in time for a wane in traffic. Try as we may, you can only predict traffic to a certain extent, and sometimes backbone upgrades planned and it works out, and sometimes those upgrades are reactionary. Usually a mix, as I will now demonstrate with the following example: (Late Spring) "oh, it looks like I'll need more capacity in a few months...better start the upgrade..." (Summer) "We're still doing well because bandwidth growth has waned, but that upgrade will be welcome..good thing it's in progress" (Fall) "We're peaking at 80-90%... really hurting and still waiting on the upgrade! delays from (telco, fiber company, government giving rights of way, fiber provider not having enough capacity, etc)" (Late fall) "This new upgraded set of tubes is great!" (Winter) "oh, it looks like I'll need more capacity in a few months...better start the upgrade process" (Spring) "We're feeling the crunch and out of bandwidth...can't get bandwidth fast enough" (Summer) "This new upgrade came just in time for the bandwidth constraints to ease..." We've all been through this cycle. Multiply it by the whole internet going through this cycle all the time and of course things will feel faster/slower at certain times of the year. If we al had OC-Ubber-bit pipes on demand, there wouldn't be slow times. But the fact of the matter is that upgrades take time. Usually longer than quoted. Add seasonal variations in use to a 30-90-180 day lag time (depending on the size of the tube that's being upgraded) and you get people noticing the perceived speed changes. -Jerry
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
Quoting Joe Greco (jgr...@ns.sol.net): > > http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion > If I recall correctly, the worst was usually a long, hard cold rain > (hey we're in Wisconsin) after which people who had been getting > solidly high speed modem connects would see a somewhat slower speed. Matches my story exactly. I once had an ADSL connection which, on dry periods, synced at the maximum of 8Mbps and when it had rained for a day this would drop to about 6Mbps. It always worked though, the SNR just went up. I regularly rebooted the modem to make it retrain. An engineer from the telephone company came to check the wiring but couldn't find anything that would constitute replacing the line or something less drastic... Regards, -Sndr. (NL) -- | /dev/hda1 has been checked 20 times without being mounted, mount forced | 4096R/6D40 - 1A20 B9AA 87D4 84C7 FBD6 F3A9 9442 20CC 6CD2
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
On Wed, 7 Oct 2009 23:12:44 +0800 Adrian Chadd wrote: Please don't forget moisture content. DSL speeds may drop during wet winters because cable pits fill with water. :) Those with real statistics, please stand up. I know ISPs who run large DSL infrastructures have these stats. I've even seen them at conferences. :) Adrian Me! During the rainy season of recent past years, the cable vault in front of my home would flood, thereby degrading or completely hosing DSL service. Haven't had heavy rains for a couple years so no trouble. I had to replace my DSL modem about 6 months ago because the previous Westell Wirespeed modem had died very slowly. My speed went from 1.5M to less than 200k and was flaky. The new modem gives me a clean 3M/768k connection. Not bad for DSL ($35/month). But that wasn't weather related. Verizon. matthew black california state university, long beach
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
I may be having my wires a little crossed (I'm not an electrical engineer) but I was always under the impression that manipulation of the physical characteristics like that from heat/dampness didn't reduce the "speed" but the "quality" (like line noise/errors/etc) of the line. Whether old telco lines or newer data lines it's all about electrical signal and bit error rates. More errors = more retransmissions = slower perceived throughput. Just my thinking. Scott Joe Greco wrote: >> http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion >> > > It used to be that we would notice this, except that it had everything to > do with temperature *and* dampness. In the '90's, it was still quite > common for a lot of older outside plant to be really only "voice grade" > and it wasn't unusual for copper to run all the way back to the CO, > through a variety of taps and splice points. Even though Ma Bell would > typically do a careful job handling their copper, the sheer number of > potential points of failure meant that it wasn't unusual for water to > infiltrate and penetrate. If I recall correctly, the worst was usually > a long, hard cold rain (hey we're in Wisconsin) after which people who > had been getting solidly high speed modem connects would see a somewhat > slower speed. > > ... JG >
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
joel jaeggli expunged (joe...@bogus.com): > ADSL systems will retrain to a lower rate as line conditions (SNR) > change for the worse. The attentuation characteristics of a given pair > will change of time due to a number of factor, including but not > certainly limited to physical wear, moisture invasion, localized source > of interference, sunspot activity etc. > > Are dsl plants subject to localized environmental conditions? Absolutely. I could be convinced that extremem heat could change a cables velocity factor, but that should only result in slight changes in phase, which I guess would result in a higher BER. Oh, and you forogot about cosmic rays :) -Steve
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
> No, I did not read the article . . . But, . . . > > Yes, DSL speed varies by season . . . or rather, temperature. > > But, this is really only the case for _aerial_copper_plant. Buried > plant is nearly the same temperature year round. Yes, but it is more susceptible to long-term water infiltration, which leads to longer-term speed drops. This is actually more difficult to work with and test for. > Copper pair resistance changes with temperature. And, therefore, the > link speed of DSL will change depending upon the time of the year > (temperature) and geographic location. > > If there is a difference of but a few degrees of temperature year round, > then no there will be no difference. But, if you live in the desert > southwest or even the mid-west where the temperatures can be 70-120 > degrees different between seasons or even 40-70 degrees different > between night and day . . . you are going to have pronounced differences > in link speed. You might. Or you might not. Around here, it's not unusual to see a difference of a hundred degrees between summer and winter. Speaking from a few decades of experience working with telecom up here, I'd be tempted to say that either a circuit tends towards being problematic or towards being reliable, and that where I've been able to ascertain enough facts, there's a correlation with the age of the outdoor plant- but that's only a loose correlation. > Worst cast, your link speed might vary 10-20%. The longer the cable > length from the central office, the more the variance will be. But, > this is something that must be measured on a case by case basis. And, > since much of the aerial plant has been replaced with buried plant, this > really isn't much of a problem anymore. Buried plant mostly has more consistent (maybe less severe) problems, IMHO. ... JG -- Joe Greco - sol.net Network Services - Milwaukee, WI - http://www.sol.net "We call it the 'one bite at the apple' rule. Give me one chance [and] then I won't contact you again." - Direct Marketing Ass'n position on e-mail spam(CNN) With 24 million small businesses in the US alone, that's way too many apples.
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
Scott Howard wrote: > So you're saying that if I put in an 8Mbps ADSL1 connection, then I'm going > to get a guaranteed 8Mbps point-to-point back to the exchange, regardless of > the quality of my phone line, or the distance from the exchange? > > (I'm not saying that the article is right, but...) ADSL systems will retrain to a lower rate as line conditions (SNR) change for the worse. The attentuation characteristics of a given pair will change of time due to a number of factor, including but not certainly limited to physical wear, moisture invasion, localized source of interference, sunspot activity etc. Are dsl plants subject to localized environmental conditions? Absolutely. > Scott >
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
Please don't forget moisture content. DSL speeds may drop during wet winters because cable pits fill with water. :) Those with real statistics, please stand up. I know ISPs who run large DSL infrastructures have these stats. I've even seen them at conferences. :) Adrian On Wed, Oct 07, 2009, Bryan Campbell wrote: > No, I did not read the article . . . But, . . . > > Yes, DSL speed varies by season . . . or rather, temperature. > > But, this is really only the case for _aerial_copper_plant. Buried > plant is nearly the same temperature year round. > > Copper pair resistance changes with temperature. And, therefore, the > link speed of DSL will change depending upon the time of the year > (temperature) and geographic location. > > If there is a difference of but a few degrees of temperature year round, > then no there will be no difference. But, if you live in the desert > southwest or even the mid-west where the temperatures can be 70-120 > degrees different between seasons or even 40-70 degrees different > between night and day . . . you are going to have pronounced differences > in link speed. > > Worst cast, your link speed might vary 10-20%. The longer the cable > length from the central office, the more the variance will be. But, > this is something that must be measured on a case by case basis. And, > since much of the aerial plant has been replaced with buried plant, this > really isn't much of a problem anymore. > > BBC > > Joe Greco wrote: > >>http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion > > > >It used to be that we would notice this, except that it had everything to > >do with temperature *and* dampness. In the '90's, it was still quite > >common for a lot of older outside plant to be really only "voice grade" > >and it wasn't unusual for copper to run all the way back to the CO, > >through a variety of taps and splice points. Even though Ma Bell would > >typically do a careful job handling their copper, the sheer number of > >potential points of failure meant that it wasn't unusual for water to > >infiltrate and penetrate. If I recall correctly, the worst was usually > >a long, hard cold rain (hey we're in Wisconsin) after which people who > >had been getting solidly high speed modem connects would see a somewhat > >slower speed. > > > >... JG -- - Xenion - http://www.xenion.com.au/ - VPS Hosting - Commercial Squid Support - - $24/pm+GST entry-level VPSes w/ capped bandwidth charges available in WA -
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
No, I did not read the article . . . But, . . . Yes, DSL speed varies by season . . . or rather, temperature. But, this is really only the case for _aerial_copper_plant. Buried plant is nearly the same temperature year round. Copper pair resistance changes with temperature. And, therefore, the link speed of DSL will change depending upon the time of the year (temperature) and geographic location. If there is a difference of but a few degrees of temperature year round, then no there will be no difference. But, if you live in the desert southwest or even the mid-west where the temperatures can be 70-120 degrees different between seasons or even 40-70 degrees different between night and day . . . you are going to have pronounced differences in link speed. Worst cast, your link speed might vary 10-20%. The longer the cable length from the central office, the more the variance will be. But, this is something that must be measured on a case by case basis. And, since much of the aerial plant has been replaced with buried plant, this really isn't much of a problem anymore. BBC Joe Greco wrote: http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion It used to be that we would notice this, except that it had everything to do with temperature *and* dampness. In the '90's, it was still quite common for a lot of older outside plant to be really only "voice grade" and it wasn't unusual for copper to run all the way back to the CO, through a variety of taps and splice points. Even though Ma Bell would typically do a careful job handling their copper, the sheer number of potential points of failure meant that it wasn't unusual for water to infiltrate and penetrate. If I recall correctly, the worst was usually a long, hard cold rain (hey we're in Wisconsin) after which people who had been getting solidly high speed modem connects would see a somewhat slower speed. ... JG
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
On Oct 7, 2009, at 10:52 AM, Scott Howard wrote: On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 7:16 AM, Patrick W. Gilmore wrote: I read the article and the follow up posts and I wonder if we are all using the same definition for "speed" here. The article seems to imply you don't get 6 Mbps on your DSL line in summer because the copper is hotter and it's harder to push electrons down the link. That is clearly BS, the clock is ticking six million times per second, period. So you're saying that if I put in an 8Mbps ADSL1 connection, then I'm going to get a guaranteed 8Mbps point-to-point back to the exchange, regardless of the quality of my phone line, or the distance from the exchange? Yes, everyone, I was imprecise. Please tell me all about baud and variability and such. Because that was the point I was trying to make. That laser is blinking at 10 billion times per second whether the queue behind the port is full or not. (And don't tell me the laser is quiescent when the queue is empty, you know what I mean.) Laser? Perhaps this is a different type of ADSL than most people here are used to? (I'm not saying that the article is right, but...) I admit I totally spaced on the fact DSL != ethernet when I was typing the first paragraph. But when I wrote the above, I actually thought to myself: "I better mention I'm talking about a 10G backbone link... nah, everyone on NANOG is smart enough to figure out what I meant." End of day, the point stands that the article is worse than useless as it does not add data to the general knowledge pool, but actually makes everyone dumber for reading it. Apparently it even made me forget how DSL works -- TTFN, patrick
RE: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
Trying to pinpoint the failure point on one of those circuits is a PITA as well. Getting a telco tech out to test on a circuit that only goes down when it rains is an exercise that Sisyphus would probably decline. Network Engineer, JNCIS-M > 214-981-1954 (office) > 214-642-4075 (cell) > jbrash...@hq.speakeasy.net http://www.speakeasy.net -Original Message- From: Joe Greco [mailto:jgr...@ns.sol.net] Sent: Wednesday, October 07, 2009 9:49 AM To: Hank Nussbacher Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season? > http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion It used to be that we would notice this, except that it had everything to do with temperature *and* dampness. In the '90's, it was still quite common for a lot of older outside plant to be really only "voice grade" and it wasn't unusual for copper to run all the way back to the CO, through a variety of taps and splice points. Even though Ma Bell would typically do a careful job handling their copper, the sheer number of potential points of failure meant that it wasn't unusual for water to infiltrate and penetrate. If I recall correctly, the worst was usually a long, hard cold rain (hey we're in Wisconsin) after which people who had been getting solidly high speed modem connects would see a somewhat slower speed. ... JG -- Joe Greco - sol.net Network Services - Milwaukee, WI - http://www.sol.net "We call it the 'one bite at the apple' rule. Give me one chance [and] then I won't contact you again." - Direct Marketing Ass'n position on e-mail spam(CNN) With 24 million small businesses in the US alone, that's way too many apples.
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 7:16 AM, Patrick W. Gilmore wrote: > I read the article and the follow up posts and I wonder if we are all using > the same definition for "speed" here. The article seems to imply you don't > get 6 Mbps on your DSL line in summer because the copper is hotter and it's > harder to push electrons down the link. That is clearly BS, the clock is > ticking six million times per second, period. > So you're saying that if I put in an 8Mbps ADSL1 connection, then I'm going to get a guaranteed 8Mbps point-to-point back to the exchange, regardless of the quality of my phone line, or the distance from the exchange? That laser is blinking at 10 billion times per second whether the queue > behind the port is full or not. (And don't tell me the laser is quiescent > when the queue is empty, you know what I mean.) > Laser? Perhaps this is a different type of ADSL than most people here are used to? (I'm not saying that the article is right, but...) Scott
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
> http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion It used to be that we would notice this, except that it had everything to do with temperature *and* dampness. In the '90's, it was still quite common for a lot of older outside plant to be really only "voice grade" and it wasn't unusual for copper to run all the way back to the CO, through a variety of taps and splice points. Even though Ma Bell would typically do a careful job handling their copper, the sheer number of potential points of failure meant that it wasn't unusual for water to infiltrate and penetrate. If I recall correctly, the worst was usually a long, hard cold rain (hey we're in Wisconsin) after which people who had been getting solidly high speed modem connects would see a somewhat slower speed. ... JG -- Joe Greco - sol.net Network Services - Milwaukee, WI - http://www.sol.net "We call it the 'one bite at the apple' rule. Give me one chance [and] then I won't contact you again." - Direct Marketing Ass'n position on e-mail spam(CNN) With 24 million small businesses in the US alone, that's way too many apples.
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
> I read the article and the follow up posts and I wonder if we are all > using the same definition for "speed" here. The article seems to > imply you don't get 6 Mbps on your DSL line in summer because the > copper is hotter and it's harder to push electrons down the link. > That is clearly BS, the clock is ticking six million times per second, > period. Are you trying to say that the *actual* DSL speed, as synchronised between the modems at either end, is neither a) affected by the physical characteristics of the copper pair, nor b) variable? I agree the article is woolly between line-speed, throughput, goodput, congestion, etc, but to say that DSL line speed is in any way fixed in the same way that Ethernet or PDH / SDH lines are is contrary to every DSL platform I've worked with. (Also, 6Mb/s DSL doesn't equate to 6 million ticks per second in anything relating to pushing electrons onto the wire. Remember, it's modem technology, just faster - your baud rate is still much lower than your bps.) Regards, Tim.
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
Yeah I have to agree...that article was poorly written and clearly the author has little understanding of physics. "Velocity" has absolutely nothing to do with Wiedemann-Franz law, we are talking resistance and that determines current through the wire; not how fast the electrons are flowing through the wire. Plus unless you are selling services on Mercury or Pluto, the temperature extremes between summer and winter are not enough to affect the resistance level of a copper in such a manner that it would affect the current on the circuit. We all have traffic utilization graphs, and, at least in my case, its pretty obviously that trends are affected by seasons only in terms of vacation, holidays, and eve if it's a Monday or a Friday. If we need to do major backbone upgrades, we try to schedule around a holiday weekend, because that's when we find Internet traffic to be the least (well from a business utilization point of view). Bret On Wed, 2009-10-07 at 10:16 -0400, Patrick W. Gilmore wrote: > On Oct 7, 2009, at 9:26 AM, Pierfrancesco Caci wrote: > > > :-> "Hank" == Hank Nussbacher writes: > > > >> http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion > >> -Hank > > > > There are TXCOs and OXCOs inside equipment for a reason. And rubidium > > lamps as well, sometimes. > > > > Seasonal variations in usage from the end customers are a fact of > > life, instead. If your net is large enough you can even spot the > > different habits about vacations, holidays and whatnot across the > > different regions. > > I read the article and the follow up posts and I wonder if we are all > using the same definition for "speed" here. The article seems to > imply you don't get 6 Mbps on your DSL line in summer because the > copper is hotter and it's harder to push electrons down the link. > That is clearly BS, the clock is ticking six million times per second, > period. > > Then it talks about traffic, which is very different than speed, at > least in my book. If the intertubes are congested, you might get less > throughput, but your "speed" is the same. And congestion cannot > affect speed. That laser is blinking at 10 billion times per second > whether the queue behind the port is full or not. (And don't tell me > the laser is quiescent when the queue is empty, you know what I mean.) > > So what are are talking here? Speed, throughput, congestion, packet > loss, latency ... ? > > Oh, and while I am certain it is true different networks see different > peaks & valleys for different seasons & times of day, the > "Internet" (whatever the hell that is) definitely has less traffic in > summer than fall. >
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
On Oct 7, 2009, at 9:26 AM, Pierfrancesco Caci wrote: :-> "Hank" == Hank Nussbacher writes: http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion -Hank There are TXCOs and OXCOs inside equipment for a reason. And rubidium lamps as well, sometimes. Seasonal variations in usage from the end customers are a fact of life, instead. If your net is large enough you can even spot the different habits about vacations, holidays and whatnot across the different regions. I read the article and the follow up posts and I wonder if we are all using the same definition for "speed" here. The article seems to imply you don't get 6 Mbps on your DSL line in summer because the copper is hotter and it's harder to push electrons down the link. That is clearly BS, the clock is ticking six million times per second, period. Then it talks about traffic, which is very different than speed, at least in my book. If the intertubes are congested, you might get less throughput, but your "speed" is the same. And congestion cannot affect speed. That laser is blinking at 10 billion times per second whether the queue behind the port is full or not. (And don't tell me the laser is quiescent when the queue is empty, you know what I mean.) So what are are talking here? Speed, throughput, congestion, packet loss, latency ... ? Oh, and while I am certain it is true different networks see different peaks & valleys for different seasons & times of day, the "Internet" (whatever the hell that is) definitely has less traffic in summer than fall. -- TTFN, patrick
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
:-> "Hank" == Hank Nussbacher writes: > http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion > -Hank There are TXCOs and OXCOs inside equipment for a reason. And rubidium lamps as well, sometimes. Seasonal variations in usage from the end customers are a fact of life, instead. If your net is large enough you can even spot the different habits about vacations, holidays and whatnot across the different regions. Pf -- --- Pierfrancesco Caci | Network & System Administrator - INOC-DBA: 6762*PFC p.c...@seabone.net | Telecom Italia Sparkle - http://etabeta.noc.seabone.net/
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
On Oct 7, 2009, at 6:44 AM, Hank Nussbacher wrote: http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion I'm not sure the effects are so big compared to the actual speed that they are noticable for the average user. We also don't have any proper data available but we do (operating in NL) notice from time to time that periods with loads of rain can have influence on the stabillity and speed of DSL lines especially in older areas of towns where they still have paper/lead covered cabling instead of more modern PVC isolation. This as more visible when everybody still used 56k dialup.This may as well be a very local effect, the western part of our country is largely at or even below sealevel and very wet already. However as these effects might get you a few kilobits extra from time to time that effect is not visible in overall usage statisctics, as soon as the sun comes out we see traffic levels drop to only rise again near september when everybody is back to school and the office. As far as traffic levels go, it's the rainy winter nights which make it into the recordbooks. Grtx, Marco
Re: Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
Hank Nussbacher wrote: http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion It's an interesting theory, that temperature affects overall throughput. Their assumptions on other conditions that affect bandwidth consumption are off IMHO. Our own data directly refutes what Wired reported in this article. Summertime is our most heavily utilized months on our network on average. For SPs heavily laden with residential subs I think this is probably the norm. Then school starts and you have a pronounced drop in traffic (that includes a major dip when college begins and again when primary school begins). The rates slowly increase back to their summer time highs until the holiday season begins where they either remain steady or taper off slightly. The theory here is that the high-bandwidth users are too busy with holiday affairs to play games, download music/porn, etc. That is until after X-mas when consumption suddenly spikes in a very pronounced way (new computers for X-mas). This also corresponds to our biggest month for new service turnups and speed increases in our bundles. Late winter varies from fairly constant to slight growth. Our single biggest days are the ones proceeding a major winter storm, or if the storm doesn't cut power to large swaths of our service area then the days in the middle of the winter storms come out on top. Spring growth depends on the weather. Good weather means less consumption for us. Bad weather means more consumption. Our least busy month is May when the kids are the most busy. June and July again show a major turn around. Bandwidth consumption is directly tied to your user demographics. If your SP is primarily business circuit then your traffic patterns will vary wildly from that of a SP with primarily residential circuits. Every SP is a little bit different. That's why some SPs set personal records for bandwidth consumption when Michael Jackson's memorial service was broadcast (including SPs less than an hour away from me) and other SPs (mine for example) didn't have a single user stream the broadcast and otherwise had a normal bandwidth day. Other than Wired making an assumption that all SPs have nearly identical traffic patterns, the article is otherwise ok. Justin
Does Internet Speed Vary by Season?
http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/magazine/17-10/ts_burningquestion -Hank
