418 I'm a teapot

2022-02-25 Thread William Waites
Yesterday, as Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, some people on the Internet
noticed a strange thing. I'm not going to comment on the big picture except to 
say
that the situation is terrible, the invasion criminal and the failure of other
countries to do anything meaningful to stop it, reprehensible. Nor will I 
attempt
to expound on how the conditions for this to happen came to exist; there are 
plenty of people who know more about that than I do. Instead, I will examine 
this
strange detail that will surely be just a minor footnote in this terrible 
conflict,
try to explain what it means, and, at the end, indulge in some hopeful 
speculation
into how it got there.

The web site of the Russian Ministry of Defence looks like it's "down" from the
perspective of nearly everyone outside of Russia and a small number of other
countries. If you point a web browser at it right now, you'll get a blank page.
But the _way_ that it is down is interesting. If you look closely, you'll see
that it is producing an error code 418. This can be reproduced more clearly
with a tool like [curl(1)]:

```
% curl -I https://mil.ru/
HTTP/1.1 418 
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 19:23:07 GMT
Content-Length: 0
Connection: keep-alive
Server: Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
```

All successful conversations between your web browser and a web server include
a [status code]. A status code is a three digit number, and it has meaning. If 
it
starts with a 2, like 200, that means everything is ok, and you'll get a web
page along with it to look at. If it starts with a 3, that means whatever you're
looking for has moved somewhere else and you'll be redirected there. If it 
starts
with a 4, it means you've done something wrong. Maybe you've asked for something
that's not there and you'll get 404 which means "Not Found".

So far so good. The Russian MoD is telling us we're not allowed to look
at their web site, right? If that were the case, the natural choice would be 403
which means "Forbidden" or perhaps 410 which means "Gone". But 418 is a strange
one. It means "I'm a teapot". It comes from April Fool's day 1998 when the 
IETF published their traditional joke standard ([RFC2324]), in that case about
connecting coffee pots to the Internet. As the joke goes, if you've connected
a teapot instead, you should get an error: *418 I'm a teapot*.

But there's another layer. In colloquial Russian, to be a teapot (чайник) 
means, approximately, to be computer illiterate. The connotation is slightly
different than the English term though it umambiguously suggests ignorance of
how a computer system works. So is the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming to
the outside world that they are computer illiterate? Do they have a geeky,
impish, self-effacing sense of humour? That seems a little implausible...

## Who is a teapot?

We can find out a little more about what's going on with some simple tools.
This teapot message either originates on the Ministry of Defense's web server
itself, or somewhere fairly close by since, by all accounts, nearly everyone
sees the same thing. To find this out, we can find out what actually answers
a TCP connection on the HTTPS port using [tcptraceroute(1)],

```
# tcptraceroute mil.ru 443
Tracing the path to mil.ru (82.202.190.92) on TCP port 443 (https), 30 hops max
 [...]
 8  uk-lon03a-ri2-ae-2-0.aorta.net (84.116.135.46)  28.784 ms  19.933 ms  
24.521 ms
 9  ae16-209.RT.TC2.LON.UK.retn.net (87.245.245.22)  26.014 ms  24.460 ms  
47.426 ms
10  ae1-3.RT.OK.MSK.RU.retn.net (87.245.232.7)  66.608 ms  67.573 ms  67.430 ms
11  GW-Indrik.retn.net (87.245.253.219)  69.701 ms  67.521 ms  68.754 ms
12  * * *
13  82.202.190.92 [open]  66.221 ms  -9016.769 ms [closed]  -8215.307 ms
```

Without belabouring the details of how to read a traceroute, and eliding the
parts closest my computer, the path goes clealy over a major backbone provider,
RETN, from London to Moskow and then to something called the Indrik gateway.
Nice bit of mythology there. [Indrik] is a kind of chimeric bull-deer-horse
-unicorn beast from Russian folklore. There's another hop not responding after
that, and then an answer. The round trip time to the last hop, which has the
same address as what we asked for, 82.202.190.92, the address of mil.ru, is
plausible. So whatever response we're getting, it's coming from Moscow, and
it's coming from the place that whoever operates mil.ru intends.

That address, 82.202.190.92, however, is not owned by the Russian Ministry
of Defense. It is part of a [network] that belongs to Kaspersky Labs. I did not
realise before looking into it just now, but Kaspersky appears to operate a
substantial amount of network infrastructure. They're not just a software
company. If an intruder had done this to embarass the Russian Ministry of
Defense, I would have expected it to be noticed and fixed by now.

So we're left with two possibilities that I can think of. Either the MoD
is in on the joke or they are not. It's hard to believe that

Re: The Left Needs a New Strategy

2021-01-15 Thread William Waites
Dmytri Kleiner  writes:

> Federated small groups with voluntary structures that analyze and
> iterate. [...] The trouble is the western left has mostly abandoned
> this strategy in favour of third party "advocacy" or "mobilizing" or
> other punditry and doesn't want to be on the same team as the global
> left.

These days I spend most of my time in some sort of no-man's land between
theoretical computer science and applied mathematics. I don't know much
about the philosophers that you quote. I think you are relying too
heavily on names and labels at the expense of simple ideas which might
make what you are saying inaccessible to many people. At least for
people like me with memories like sieves through which famous names
immediately fall, it can be difficult to keep track of what you are
talking about.

Nevertheless, I think I can recognise the pattern that you are
describing.

The kind of iterative process that you describe can be observed
throughout nature. It's a way of doing optimisation. There's something
that we want to optimise, perhaps a personal notion of fitness or
well-being in the game theoretic sense, perhaps out of a sense of
altruism it's the average fitness of the group, or the society or the
world. It would be useful to articulate specifically what you think
we should be optimising for -- I don't think that you have done that.

Your iterative process is a kind of evolutionary algorithm. The system
is far too complicated to immediately know what immediate action is
going to make things better, so we try a strategy, evaluate the fitness,
change the strategy a bit (or completely), and repeat. We can change
strategy smoothly, a little more of this, a little less of that, or we
can mutate the strategy radically. We can copy what appears to us to be
the strategies that are successful. Over time, generations, the
prevailing strategies shift and the global landscape changes. This is
nothing more than the process of evolution. Bacteria do it, virii do it,
animals and plants do it, all organisms including humans do it.

Humans are a bit different because we can consciously change strategies.
This means change can happen on much shorter time-scales than, for
example, genetic evolution.

Can we see why pundits of western left as you put it appears to be stuck
in a local optimum? Well, that's just it. There's not a huge amount of
pressure to do things differently. Small changes in strategy don't
appreciably change where we are, and where we are is pretty comfortable.
Large changes tend to become very uncomfortable very quickly. We are in
a deep potential well with very tall and steep sides. The energy needed
to get out of it is very large indeed.

Discomfort far away is hard to feel here. To the extent that we are
conscious of it, any local change that we make has at most a small
effect on it on the time-scale on which we make decisions and change
strategies. This small effect is not enough to get us up and over the
sides of the well to some place different.

So here we sit at the bottom of the well. The western left as you
describe it cannot be a source of change.

QED
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Marcel Salathé: I fear we will need stronger measures

2020-03-26 Thread William Waites

Marcel Salathé: I fear we will need stronger measures

Interview by Sylvie Logean for Le Temps
Original: 
https://www.letemps.ch/sciences/marcel-salathe-crains-ne-devions-aller-vers-mesures-plus-strictes
Translation by William Waites
2020/03/25

EPFL professor expresses his frustration about the authorities'
management of the COVID-19 crisis. Despite the appeals of experts as
early as January, the Swiss authorities were slow to act, losing
precious time. 

  [photograph of Marcel Salathé]
  Marcel Salathé, professor at EPFL, believes that, when it comes to the
  authorities, "we are dealing with a kind of magical thinking, a kind
  of hope that the situation will spontaneously improve".

The director of the Digital Epidemiology Laboratory at the Biotech
Campus in Geneva and professor at the École Polytechnique Fédérale de
Lausanne closely follows the COVID-19 pandemic across the world with
machine learning tools. For him, it was clear several weeks ago that we
would be facing a dramatic situation. He doesn't hide his frustration
with the authorities who, despite the appeals of experts, have been slow
to act. 

Le Temps: several scientists tried to alert the authorities very
early about the health emergency, in Switzerland and elsewhere, that
the exponential growth of the COVID-19 epidemic would represent. Why
did they take so long to react? 

Marcel Salathé: I think that's an eminently political question. We were
working on these questions already in January and we were able to
predict what was going to happen. Based on what happened in Wuhan, we
could see, in effect, that the number of infected people was following a
nearly perfectly exponential curve. At the same time, given our
vulnerability to this virus and a lack of preventative or therapeutic
treatments for it, we knew that the situation would be very difficult to
manage, even more so when the epidemic spread to Iran and Italy despite
the confinement measures taken in China. 

These were the observations that made us raise the alarm at the end of
January. Unfortunately, we were not taken seriously then and received no
support from the political class. In the eyes of many, we were simply
being alarmist. 

On your Twitter account, you recently expressed your loss of
confidence in the political arena... 

I understand that it's difficult to reconcile all the different existing
interests, to find the right equilibrium. But I was particularly shocked
by the lack of appreciation for the work of Swiss scientific experts
that weren't, at any time, involved in the decision-making process. I
expected the political actors to take the threat seriously, that the
authorities would strongly attack the situation from the beginning, but
this was not the case, which is terribly frustrating. 

Our objective is still not, today, to point the finger, but to face this
crisis together. This is why we have created, with a team of scientists,
a volunteer task force with the goal of producing studies that can be
useful for the authorities. Happily, in the past few days, a
communication channel seems to have been opened. It is a narrow channel,
but at least it exists. 

In your opinion, did the the Federal Council try to appear too
reassuring to the population? 

I think rather that part of our leaders did not, at that time, grasp the
true gravity of the situation. This observation, valid for Switzerland,
is also true for nearly all European countries as well as the United
States, which, unlike the Asian countries, haven't lived through the
trauma linked to the preceding SARS-CoV-1 and MERS epidemics. 

We also need to mention that, among the countries which reacted
inadequately, Switzerland nevertheless rapidly decided to impose
courageous measures, forbidding, for example, gatherings of more than
1000 people. Despite this, we lost precious time. 

Seen from outside, the strategy of the Federal Council still doesn't
seem clear. What model are they working from to face this pandemic? 

That's a question for which I don't have a precise answer. For now, the
Federal Council seems to be applying what I call the "salami technique",
which consists of cutting a certain number of measures into fine slices,
stronger and stronger, with the goal of obtaining more acceptance from
the population. Globally these are good measures, but are they really
sufficient? 

My impression is that the authorities seem to believe that it will still
be possible to manage the situation by compromise. We are faced with a
sort of magical thinking, a form of hope in the possibility of a
spontaneous improvement in the situation, like we observe with seasonal
flu. We don't know yet if this is really possible, but the example of
Italy shows us that it certainly won't happen. That's the reason why I
fear that we will need a much stricter lock-down.

To some experts, the

Re: Should use mobile phone data to monitor public health

2020-03-22 Thread William Waites
James Wallbank  writes:

> And, shockingly, the value of a lawyer who is not working is,
> apparently, greater than the value of a waste disposal worker who is
> working!

Necessary to point out that, at least as of now, lawyers, especially
junior ones taking legal aid cases, are being required to keep working:

http://www.younglegalaidlawyers.org/COVID19pressrelease

Also the wage subsidy is capped at just above the median wage, so it's
not quite as wildly unequal as you suggest. Though I agree that it would
be better to just treat everyone who is not working equally.

Best wishes,
-w


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Re: Should use mobile phone data to monitor public health efforts?

2020-03-18 Thread William Waites


Felix Stalder  writes:

> So, is there a possibility to use this data without it turning
> it into an authoritarian power grab? I think there is, under the
> following guidelines:
>
> - Data needs to be deleted after immediate purpose of the analysis
> has been achieved.

The thing is these data are as much necessary for trying to do
immediate contract tracing as they are for post-hoc analysis and
development and validation of new analysis techniques. These are
very important. We can't just rely on non-reproducible analyses that
can't be checked because the data has been deleted. Some of this only
requires an anonymised version of the data, but we also know that
doing that right is very hard.

> - The analysis needs to be restricted to questions developed by
> an external team. So, no fishing simple because the data is now
> available. Mission creep is very often a problem.

For sure, but see above.

> - Questions, methods and results of the analysis need to be published
> after the fact. This will allow public appraisal of the legitimacy of
> the program.

Absolutely.

> - Data needs to be made available to at least two teams that are
> completely independent from one another. This will allow for the
> cross-examination of the quality of the different approaches.

Anonymised data, if we can make such a thing, should be made completely
open and then all the usual activity of analysing and modelling it in
different ways can happen.

For the personalised data, I agree with you, but it should be at least
three teams because if you have two analyses that disagree, it's hard to
tell which one is wrong.

Best wishes,
-w

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Re: rage against the machine

2019-03-29 Thread William Waites
> To my limited understanding, the black box in the airplane is not a
> device to limit the complexity of the pilots' interaction with, or
> understanding of, the plane by reducing a complex process to a simple
> in/out relationship.
> 
> No, it's a flight recorder. During the flight, it has no output at all,
> and in no way influences the processes of flying. It simply records
> certain signals, including voice signals.
> 
> The plane would fly in exactly the same way if it wasn't there.
> 
> In this sense, it's a forensic, not a cybernetic tool. And as that, it's
> function is actually exactly the opposite. It's a tool designed not to
> hide but to reveal complexity, to make transparent what happens inside
> the cockpit.

It seems to me it is a question of where you draw the system boundary. If the
system is an aeroplane that is flying, then the recording device is not part of
the control loop and it is not a cybernetic tool in that context. If the system
is the one that adjusts and optimises designs according to successes and
failures, then the recording device definitely is part of the control loop and
it is a cybernetic tool.

Best wishes,
-w


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Re: Why I won't support the March for Science

2017-04-24 Thread William Waites
> What it really needed for me to believe in the efficacy of science as a
> political force ...

When this event was advertised on a departmental mailing list here in
Edinburgh, it was specifically described to be "non-political". That struck
me as at best nonsensical but at the same time oddly revealing about
the current climate in this part of the world. Dangerous times, best keep
your head down, wait and see where the chips will fall etc.

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Re: A Veillance Ansatz

2015-12-06 Thread William Waites
Hi John,

Yes,   `social   power'   has   a   form   a   lot   like   `potential
energy'. Confusing choice of words  here since `power' in pysics means
something quite different. Also perhaps confusing was my choice of the
symbol E for the product which might normally be used for some kind of
total energy. Well, it's a work in progress.

The  immediate  reason  for  writing  this was  an  article  [1]  that
mentioned sousveillance but  used it wrongly. I had  been working with
Steve Mann around the time that he  coined the term, so I pointed this
out. What the article discusses is  more like isoveillance at best and
indirect surveillance at worst.  A minor quibble over choice of words,
not especially interesting.

More generally,  I've been  busy over  the past  years working  in the
background on collaborative Internet  infrastructure in remote places.
These  are  organised  roughly  along  venture  communist  lines,  and
although  they  generally would  not  use  that language  to  describe
themselves  they  owe a  great  debt  to  Dmytri Kleiner  and  others'
thinking. This project has been  quite successful at creating the part
of  the  Internet that  covers  a  large  geographical area  in  rural
Scotland,   complete   withinter-network   peering   and   transit
relationships  and  a  distributed   exchange  point  presented  as  a
confederation to the outside world.

Sadly the extent to which the  Internet is under siege is increasingly
clear.  In  the UK  it may  soon become untenable  to work  to promote
access and collective ownership  and management of infrastructure. The
reason  is that  the  proposed  new laws  attempt  to conscript  these
operators into assisting with the surveillance project. The flavour of
this  is  yet   more  sinister  than  just  the   background  of  mass
surveillance (the flavour may have something to do with path integrals
of the veillance field equation).

Given these developments, it may be  best to redirect some effort away
from   infrastructure   developmentand   towards   awareness   and
self-defence. The main line of work continues of course. In this light
the  previous  post  is  part  of the  process  of  understanding  and
articulating the  situation in which  participants in the  Internet (a
better term than `users') find themselves.

Best,
-w

http://arstechnica.com/business/2015/12/new-open-source-license-plate-reader-software-lets-you-make-your-own-hot-list/


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A Veillance Ansatz

2015-12-06 Thread William Waites
This short article is to try to put discussion about surveillance into
theoretical framework.  It is far from rigorous and is more a guide to
a certain way of thinking about the topic.

The word  `sousveillance', coined  in the  late 90s  by Steve  Mann in
analogy with `surveillance'  was meant to invert  the prevailing power
dynamic.  The  canonical  example  being the  hypothesis  that  giving
cameras to homeless  people would make it less likely  that they would
be beaten by police. The `veillance'  or watching was in the direction
from less to greater power.

Locally, at any point in space, we can write the veillance equation:

   E = V·∇P

This is a compact way of saying that supposing we can assign a `social
power'  to every  point  in  space, we  can  then  find, with  certain
technical assumptions, the direction and magnitude of greatest change,
∇P. This is  the power gradient. It  points up the hill  from the less
powerful to the more powerful.

Equally,  following Mann  [1] we  can form  the `sight'  or `veillance
intensity' vector V at that point. This is the direction and intensity
of watching emanating from there. It is  the sum of all the gazes that
pass through that  point. The · symbol means inner  product which is a
way of multiplying vectors such that  the result is a single number, a
scalar, that says how well aligned V and ∇P are.

The result,  E, is the amount  of `veillance' happening at  that point
scaled  according to  the disparity  in power  at that  place. We  can
further take  the integral over a  region in space, ∫Edv,  to find out
the aggregate amount, and nature of veillance in that region.

The sign of  E is instructive. If  it is positive, the  total gaze and
the  power   gradient  are   aligned.  In   this  situation   we  have
`sousveillance', the  weak watching the  powerful. If it  is negative,
the direction is reversed, with  the powerful watching the weak, which
is `surveillance'  as the word is  normally used. If it  is zero, then
the gaze  is among peers  with no disparity  in power. Making  a short
film of a birthday party perhaps. This is `isoveillance'.

The magnitude of E has an  interesting interpretation. It can be small
or zero in three circumstances: when  the power gradient is zero, when
there  is nobody  watching, or  when watching  is only  directed among
equals.  In other  words this  might happen  in either  or both  of an
egalitarian   society   or   a   society  without   either   sur-   or
sous-veillance.

On the other  hand if E is  some non-zero value, the  larger the power
gradient, the  smaller the  amount of watching  necessary to  get that
particular value and  vice-versa. If E is interpreted as  some sort of
measure of  the effect  on society of  veillance, then  taken together
with its sign, if there are great power disparities, a small amount of
surveillance has  a large negative  effect, whereas a small  amount of
sousveillance has a  large positive effect. In  less unequal societies
it takes more veillance activity to achieve the same thing.

This theory  of veillance  does not take  into account  the following,
important, phenomenon. Suppose  Alex takes a video of  Larry at dinner
one night to  remember a pleasant evening by. On  the surface we could
imagine that this is simply isoveillance. A harmless activity. However
Alex is in the habit of using  a server owned by Gerald to store these
video-memories. Gerald is in a position  of privilege and power and if
he looks  at the  video, he  is committing  surveillance on  Larry and
using Alex as an unwitting accomplice.

Similar indirect or hidden surveillance -- implying that E should be a
large  negative  number   --  is  possible  in  a   variety  of  other
circumstances  as well.  For  example  even if  Alex  did not  entrust
video-memories  to Gerald  for  safe-keeping, a  state could  covertly
steal them or force Alex to hand them over.

This indirection, veillance happening through several hops, means that
the in calculating V  it is necessary to sum up  the indirect gazes as
well.  Indeed  it  is  necessary   to  know  all  possible  paths  for
information  to  pass  from  Larry  to  Gerald,  together  with  their
bandwidth,  in  order  to  find  out the  amount  of  veillance  being
committed by Gerald on Larry. This issn't so obvious at first glance.

It is also  not obvious that it  is well-defined to speak  of a `power
field' with a value at every point in space. Certainly it is plausible
that we could associate a number representing some notion of power for
every person, and for every pair  of people a difference between these
numbers, but to  arrive at something like a gradient  we need a notion
of distance between  them. Two candidates are  physical distance which
has the  advantage of  being continuous, or  distance across  a social
graph which would take more work.  People, of course are discrete, not
continuous entities, so we might  speak of the

Re: What should GCHQ do?

2015-05-25 Thread William Waites
On Sun, 24 May 2015 22:09:00 -0400, "t byfield"  said:

> I'm skeptical about crypto absolutism because one of its first
> effects would be, in effect, to *privatize* everything. 'Public'
> would be reduced to whatever was cracked or leaked

As was pointed out to me on IRC, and I agree and tried to include this
point, the main problem is that most people cannot accurately
distinguish between public and private when it comes to
communication. The way the network treats their data often does not
match their intentions. 

Most often this happens in the direction of mistakenly making
something public that was intended to be private such a message
between you and your spouse. It can happen in the other direction
too, but the situation is not symmetric: you can publish things that
were once private but you cannot unpublish things. 

> But I do think that the growing 'moral' push toward secure
> communications is troubling, and that preserving 'insecure'
> communications channels as a legitimate choice is vital.

Publishing something -- making it public -- is one thing. This message
is public. However the act of publishing, and the act of reading can
be private. In sending this message, some details about exactly where
and how and by whom it was sent are obscured. In my case it doesn't
really matter much. I even put my real name on it and anyone who wants
to find me can easily do so. But for some people -- the prototypical
example being journalists in a hostile place -- it matters very
much. By arranging for it to be difficult see, on the wire, what is
going on we help them because it means they do not stand out. That's
the moral argument.

Insecure channels generally are still opaque to most people. The only
ones who benefit from them are those in a privileged position to watch
what is happening on the wire. There is no practical difference to the
reader or author if a message is transmitted over a secure or an
insecure channel. It only matters to someone else who might be
watching.

Storage is a little different, but only a little. If you store your
information on a computer that you control then there is not much
benefit to encryption. Unless it is possible for someone else to come
to control it without your permission, and there are many ways that
this can happen. If you store your information on somebody else's
computer then you had better trust them and transitively anyone else
who is in a position to see their computer. Or you can ``trust the
math and the engineers''  as you put it.

But the thing is, you don't have to just trust the math. You can check
it for yourself. You can check the implementations by the
engineers. That's difficult and impractical for most people but it is
possible in principle. Maybe you have a friend that you trust who
tries to keep on top of these things. I am not a mathematician or a
cryptographer but I know some of them, and I find that in virtually
all cases I trust their *motivations*. They are human so there is a
gap between the theory and what is the case in the world, but we try
to narrow that gap. To me it seems better on average to place trust in
people who are in the business of clearly explaining things rather
than obfuscating and appealing to emotions in order to profit.

-w


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What should GCHQ do?

2015-05-24 Thread William Waites
Edinburgh, May 24 2015

Back in late April, an invitation [1] was circulated around the School
of Informatics which asked academics for ideas about what projects
they should fund in the area of ``Cyber Defense''. Presumably the same
invitation went out to various universities and other organisations. I
was very much conflicted about whether to participate. One the one
hand engaging with GCHQ at all seemed like a bad idea. On the other,
it was an invitation to tell them directly what I think -- at least
then it could be said that they had been told. As it turns out, the
even was cancelled at the last minute with no explanation.

If the event had gone ahead, what would I have said? The topic was
defense, keeping infrastructure and such safe from attack. This part
of their job is different from the offensive surveillance (or
``signals intelligence'' in the jargon) programmes. So it stands to
reason that projects that would make their SIGINT job harder would
improve our defensive capabilities and make ``UK interests''
safer. After all, the GCHQ is are not the only ones with offensive
capabilities, but they're reputed to be pretty well developed so
trying to defend against them seems like a good tactic for improving
everybody's security. If GCHQ were to fund work in that direction,
they would be making a positive contribution to our collective
security. That's the argument in broad strokes.

What, specifically, could this mean? One thing is to figure out how to
get strong encryption used pervasively. The science is well
established, we have good (technical) quality software that does
encryption, but still an alarming amount of communications still
happen in the clear -- both the content and the meta-data. Why is
this? Originally the answer may have been expense, doing encryption is
computationally more expensive than not doing it. But that is no
longer much of a concern. Computers are fast. Modern computers even
have hardware support for encryption (how trustworthy that hardware
support is is another important thing to look at). Another answer is
that using encryption is difficult. But we know how to make simple,
pleasant and natural user interfaces, surely if serious effort were
brought to bear this too could be overcome.

The answers probably lie in psychology, sociology and economics. The
false argument that only criminals need privacy, and they don't
deserve it still convinces many people. Worse, the intuition of the
average user about the security properties of their actions does not
match the reality. This leads to people typing their lives into
Facebook under the mistaken impression that this is somehow a private
communication with their friends. How can this impedence mismatch of
intuition be improved? If it were improved, we could have an informed
population with an accurate perception of the on-line world, less
susceptible to many of the threats on the Internet. Surely the UK's
population is a ``UK interest''.

Furthermore such research could similarly improve the safety of others
outwith the UK since the Internet does not recognise the borders of
nation-states. The security of the global population is also in the UK
interest since a home computer somewhere in another country with a
virus can be used to attack something that the UK cares about. Better
that the owner of that home computer is educated and aware and follows
good practices by default so it does not become infected in the first
place. Of course this would limit the capabilities of agencies in the
UK to break into that computer (which, shockingly is now completely
allowed [2]) but that is worth it because it is delusional to think
that any bug or exploit that allows that to happen will not be also
used by criminals or countries that the UK considers to be enemies.

The Internet today, is incredibly centralised. In the UK,
infrastructure itself is heavily concentrated in London. A small
number of large companies are responsible for the lion's share of
traffic and activity. This concentration is a risk. It was not how the
Internet was conceived to operate. The risk comes because accident,
disasters and bad actors have a relatively small number of
targets. The concentration makes mass surveillance easier but it also
makes revenue generation using advertisements (a common business model
among large Internet companies) possible. The value of such a company
is roughly proportional to the number of ``eyeballs'' it can sell to
advertisers, so there is a strong incentive to gather as many as
possible in one place. It's a lot harder to tailor advertisements if
the communication between these eyeballs is encrypted. Automated
analysis of behaviour patterns is more difficult and injecting
``relevant'' ads based on content is impossible.

And so we have arrived at the economic problem. The business model of
advertising has the same basic requirements as mass
surveillance. Thwarting one by decentralisation and ensuring
confidentiality of communications me

Re: Future Scenarios for a Collaborative Economy

2014-12-27 Thread William Waites
Salut Michel! Congratulations on the publication of your book. I would
like to read it but am concerned that I would have to break the law to
do it. Using Free Software on my computer to read it means breaking
the law because all of the distributors employ some sort of Digital
Restrictions Management. Is this the way Peer Production is meant to
Evolve Within Capitalism? Or am I Mistaken?

Greetings from Edinburgh,
-w


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Google, PGP & the Metadata

2014-06-04 Thread William Waites
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Hash: SHA512



  Edinburgh, June 2014

Google  has  announced that  they  are  working on  a  way  to do  PGP
encryption inside web browsers. When it's finished this means that, if
you use  the GMail web site,  your messages can be  enciphered by your
web browser and deciphered by  the person who is receiving the message
in  their web  browser or  email program.  This is  a good  thing, and
something  that we  have  been trying  to  encourage for  a long  time
because the  more encrypted messages flying around,  the better. Right
now using encryption is like raising a flag and shouting "look at me".

But there are a few interesting observations to be made. The first one
is about  Google's business model  of data mining and  advertising. If
they cannot  read the messages, they  cannot do this.  Perhaps this is
changing. Perhaps  the other revenue that  they have has  grown to the
point  where  they can  afford  to forego  the  this  extra source  of
information.  Perhaps emails read  and written  on mobile  devices are
numerous enough  -- they  cannot use this  facility yet  without third
party programs --  that the traffic from the web  site is small enough
to not significantly impact their  bottom line. Whatever the case they
have made  the judgement  that the loss  of visibility and  ability to
derive revenue  from the content  of people's email messages  is worth
the benefit of better privacy.

How are  the keys kept secure?  With PGP you  have a public key  and a
private  key. The  private key  is  meant to  be kept  private and  is
normally stored somewhere and itself  kept encrypted with some sort of
symmetric cipher  using a passphrase.  People do not,  generally, like
typing in long  passphrases so are likely to either use  a weak one or
to  have it  stored in  the  clear or  at best  protected by  whatever
mechanism  they normally  use on  their computer  or phone  (when this
stuff is  available for phones).  The poor state of  endpoint security
and prevalence of all sort  of automated exploits and phishing used to
retrieve information from people's computers and telephones means that
we can expect  an increase in this kind of  activity. The black market
price for  exploits of this  kind might rise  and the botnets  used to
deliver them to grow in size.

Another  weakness arises from  considering how  Google might  handle a
warrant   or  order  requiring   them  to   divulge  the   content  of
messages. When  using a web  site such as  GMail a lot  of proprietary
JavaScript software  is delivered to the  browser to run.  It is quite
conceivable  that  they add  a  function  to  encrypt messages  to  an
additional,  hidden, recipent.   It is  easy enough  with  the OpenPGP
protocol to make the web browser  add a recipient and then to strip it
out within  Google before sending the message  along without violating
the integrity of the message.  That way the recipient would be unaware
that the  message had been intercepted.  Simple.  With some cleverness
and a pocket certificate authority the same thing could be done with a
man in the middle setup by  a nefarious third party. The moral here is
trusting secure communications to proprietary software delivered "as a
service" is foolish.

And the  elephant in the room is  the metadata. It is  well known that
PGP  does not  address keeping  the sender  and recipient  of messages
confidential.  They could not  be delivered  as email  otherwise. This
information, coupled  with other sources  such as location  and search
history and so forth, the so called "pattern of life" analysis that we
have been hearing about recently, is very valuable. Too Google perhaps
it is sufficiently  valuable to overcome the loss  of information from
mining  the content  itself.  Certainly it  is  revealing enough  that
though  it might  hamper those  organisations engaged  in  "full take"
recording of every  bit sent along important paths it  is likely to do
so only slightly.  To fix this we need to also  replace our aged email
protocols.


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Surveillance in Scotland -- More of the Same

2014-05-21 Thread William Waites
 Surveillance in Scotland -- More of the Same
 

   Edinburgh, May 2014

There  is a  petition  [1]  in front  of  the  Scottish Parliament  to
conditionally  grant  Edward  Snowden asylum  should  Scotland  become
independent. This  presented an interesting opportunity  yesterday for
the parliament --  or individual politicians -- to take  a position on
what is  probably the most  significant issue of this  generation: the
transformation of society through  ubiquitous surveillance. This topic
has been  conspicuous by its  absence from the independence  debate so
far and the parliament missed its chance.

Several of the MSPs on the committee were sympathetic to the idea, but
the discussion soon degenerated into the technicalities of extradition
and missed the  point. They chose to focus on  the Scottish Government
Whitepaper  says  that  it  intends to  maintain  current  extradition
arrangements [2] and so the actual  taking up of an asylum offer might
be unlikely, and in any case would  have to wait until 2016. The point
that the gesture itself would be significant was largely ignored.

What could be  the reason for this? The whitepaper  also says that the
organisation  of  the  security  and  intelligence  services  will  be
primarily done with guidance from the UK. Given the level of overreach
and probable illegality  [3] that has been engaged in  by the UK, this
is a poor model for an independent Scotland to copy.

If one  were feeling  cynical and  disillusioned with  politicians, it
almost seems as though the apparently sympathetic words by some of the
committee members may  have been designed to create  the impression of
responsiveness to a petitioner who  brought a serious public grievance
before them, along with something concrete that they could do about it
whilst doing nothing about it.

There was  never any intention of  doing anything about it  because --
and I  hope that  I am  wrong about this  -- one  thing that  both the
Scottish and  the UK governments  agree upon  is that the  citizens of
Scotland will remain under constant surveillance no matter the outcome
of the vote on September 18th.

[1] 
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/GettingInvolved/Petitions/asyluminscotlandforedwardsnowden
[2] http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/11/9348/11
[3] 
http://kingsreview.co.uk/magazine/blog/2014/05/21/2014-the-return-of-big-brother/


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BCP 188: Pervasive Monitoring Is an Attack

2014-05-13 Thread William Waites
Just now from our engineers:

http://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/rfc7258.txt

Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF)S. Farrell
Request for Comments: 7258Trinity College Dublin
BCP: 188   H. Tschofenig
Category: Best Current Practice ARM Ltd.
ISSN: 2070-1721 May 2014

Abstract

   Pervasive monitoring is a technical attack that should be mitigated
   in the design of IETF protocols, where possible.

...


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Re: Harassing People for Watching a Movie in a Cinema

2014-01-22 Thread William Waites
We used to say, back when collaborating with Steve Mann in the late 1990s
that it isn't a camera, it's a visual memory prosthetic. I think it's an
accurate description. 

It's disappointing that the writer was intimidated into giving up all of
his memories to the police in order to clear his name under a presumption
of guilt.

On Wed, Jan 22, 2014 at 01:07:38PM +0100, Felix Stalder wrote:

> I remember, a couple of years ago, Sebastian Luetgert speaking about the
> real frontier of copyright wars being personal memory. That if you
> really want to enforce copyright, you have to force people to forget, to
> erase from memory, say, films immediately after watching them.
 <...>


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Re: Privacy, Moglen, @ioerror, #rp12

2012-05-09 Thread William Waites
 > For what it's worth, the *original* Internet (okay, ARPANET) was
 > quite "centralized" and, in fact, had "surveillance" (albeit of a
 > very small group of researchers who had grown reluctant to travel
 > to "brain-storm") as (one of) its primary goals.

This is a strange thing to say. Centralised in its funding, in the
early days, sure. Centralised architecturally? Not so. Small enough to
easily hold in your head? Sure but that didn't last long.

 > By the time I brought AOL public in 1992, its entire profits were
 > the result of HOT CHAT, which was superceded by AOL becoming the
 > primary site for accessing PORN sites, since they had the largest
 > server-farm and, therefore, the most room to cache "pictures."

So porn figures importantly in the demise of usenet. Here I disagree
with Dmytri's implication that usenet died because of its
decentralised nature. As I remember it, being a sysadmin and network
engineer, it was more a simple question of expense of running a full
feed. alt.binaries was big. The news server took a lot of disk space
and consumed a lot of bandwidth and accounted for a small portion of
revenue. The decisions at ISPs to stop running news servers were taken
pretty much on those terms and had little to do with thinking about
centralisation or lack thereof.

The reasoning that said that running a web site and trying to keep the
eyeballs to sell to investors was a better model than things like
usenet was after the fact. It was a line of thinking that happened at
the financier level, after all it wasn't an either-or question for the
ISPs who were, in general, in the business of infrastructure not
running web sites.

 > So, there's "surveillance" (like the don't pass go, directly to
 > jail type -- for instance) and the "I've got all your clicks but
 > don't know what to do with them" type -- which is exactly where
 > Google and Facebook are today and will likely be 10 years from now.

These two kinds of surveillance fit neatly into the ISP and the web
site categories. The former is getting ridiculous. Here (UK) we seem
to have taken some bizarre and dangerous position that Orwell's novel
is more of an instruction manual than a cautionary tale. For example a
recent report from a parliamentary enquiry [1] is seriously suggesting
an Opt-In content filtering scheme to be implemented by the
providers. Think about it. We already have passive surveillance and
DPI, but now we have to raise our hand and ask permission to look at
anything that some civil servant thinks might be objectionable.

This drives centralisation in the infrastructure. These measures are
expensive computationally and administratively. A network operator
might rightly think it is easier to manage such things centrally.

The latter, "I've got all your clicks but don't know what to do with
them although I'm pretty sure they're useful or valuable in some way"
is what drives the centralisation of the web services.

The previous iteration, where users were expected to consume but not
produce, and we had traffic flows that went from the big web sites to
the eyeballs but not in the opposite direction also drove
centralisation, aggregation of demand in the infrarstructure.

Thankfully this is beginning to change as people start posting more
pictures and movies and stuff on web sites (however centralised they
may be). Because it starts to mean that the asymmetry that was built
into the DSL networks when ADSL was chosen over SDSL starts to be less
practical. The structure of the network starts to become more
balanced. It starts to become practical to actually serve stuff from
your home computer and keep backups on your friend's because you trust
them more than some giant overvalued company that has little regard
for your interests. Same with passing messages to friends and
collegues, where the path that a message takes mirrors more closely
the path that it would likely take with old-fasioned word of
mouth. The "cloud" starts to diffuse. "social networks" like facebook,
linkedin and google+ become redundant and wither away...

One can hope, right?

William Waites
Edinburgh


[1] 
http://www.claireperry.org.uk/downloads/independent-parliamentary-inquiry-into-online-child-protection.pdf


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Re: Privacy, Moglen, @ioerror, #rp12

2012-05-09 Thread William Waites
 > Capitalism was invented for a "purpose" by more-or-less by the same
 > people who gave us the 18th century (first) Industrial Revolution.
 > While corporations and usury had been around for a while, that
 > purpose was (roughly speaking) "industrialization."  Today the
 > Chinese call their system "state-capitalism," which given that they
 > are still industrializing makes a lot of sense.
 >
 > Industrialization raises living standards, increases population
 > density, improves health, lengthens life expectancy and generally
 > "helps" EVERYONE -- right?  Just look at Angus Madisson's charts
 > and graphs.

Here in Scotland where the steam engine and automatic loom weaving
things were invented and maybe where these ideas of capitalism and
industrialisation that you're talking about come from, these
developments came at a very great cost.

All of a sudden the mountainous landscape with poor quality soil that
was barely good enough for subsistence farming became useful - we
could graze sheep on it, and now that we had these fancy looms, we
needed more wool. Now just to get rid of those pesky unprofitable
crofters. So the country was purposefully depopulated, people exiled
either to North America or to cities like Glasgow.

This wasn't quite enough because some of this land was held in common,
so we invented property laws that said if your title was in the
registry in Edinburgh uncontested for some years, you owned it. Not
many peasants knew about this until it was too late and even so the
long journey to the capital to look for a piece of paper wasn't easily
made.

And when they concentrated in the cities, their teeth started falling
out. Yes, it's true. See they went from a diet consisting in large
part of oats to one consisting in large part of things like jam that
were now readily available, and I guess our knowledge of nutrition
back then wasn't what it is now.

The slums in Edinburgh, in the old town, along the cowgate were at
that time hideous places to live. Disease-ridden and filthy. No
matter, the lairds had enough cash to drain the Nor' loch and build a
New Toun from scratch in the early 19th century with grand imposing
avenues and solid georgian buildings.

It took a very long time for any increase in life expectancy to
materialise. There would first have been a significant decrease. And
when the situation improved it was partly due to better knowledge of
medicine and nutrition. The other part is, given the time lag, those
worst off were already dead or elsewhere so its obvious that average
life expectancy would rise once the people dragging it down are gone.

To the extent that all this was mixed up with the politics of the day,
resentment was directed at the government in London and there were
some unsuccessful armed insurrections which lead to brutal repression
and a campaign of cultural genocide from which the country has never
recovered.

To sell this, Sir Walter Scott, one of the greatest propagandists who
ever lived, invented the image of the Highlander as the noble savage
and together with Rabbie Burns founded the scottish tourist industry
for a visit by King George to inaugurate the New Toun.

 > So, does "capitalism" still have a broad social *purpose* once a
 > significant level of industrialization has already been achieved?

I have a Harris tweed jacket that I like very much and wear almost
every day. I like to take the train. Did the history that brought
those things to me have to be a tale of depopulation, exile, disease,
famine, cultural genocide and concentration of wealth? I can't see any
reason why it had to happen that way.

 > Might the same "anti-privilege" politics that you champion be a
 > result of having already achieved "post-industrial" status --
 > personally and culturally?

200 years on, there is no longer much industry here to speak of. What
happens here is banking and tourism. There's an almost dead
shipbuilding industry and recently some resource extraction with the
North Sea oil. It's not a bad place to live, definitely
"post-industrial". I'm not an economist, but I suspect it is largely
financed by similar stories of industrialisation and wealth extraction
simply being replayed further afield, reaping the benefits of being
"first to market".

Comments on porn and surveillance to follow...

William Waites
Edinburgh


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