Re: I farted

2018-02-01 Thread walter palmetshofer

On 2018-02-01 11:53, Felix Stalder wrote:

This analogy is wrong.


Trafalgar not Krojanty.

Charge at Krojanty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge_at_Krojanty
.DE vs. .PL
killed: 11 vs. 19 - 25
wounded: 9 vs. 40 - 50

Battle of Trafalgar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Trafalgar
.FR&.ES vs. UK
casualties & losses: 13.781 vs. 1.666
ships lost: 22 vs. 0

Same up shit creek without a paddle situation is currently unfolding in 
Austria.

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Re: When repression is cheaper than redistribution

2017-09-04 Thread walter palmetshofer

hi Keith,

remembered this 5min part of an interview with Adam Curtis regarding 
your question

https://soundcloud.com/chapo-trap-house/episode-65-no-future-feat-adam-curtis-121216#t=45:45

The question is "Do you really want change or do you want just change 
things a little bit?"

49:50 "you spot real change, when ..."

risk aversion, or the pricetag you might have to pay

walter


On 2017-09-04 11:18, Keith Hart wrote:

Excellent point, Felix and nice riposte, Patrice.

Tocqueville, in The Old Regime and the Revolution published just
before he died, explained the latter's causes as follows:

1. The spread of Enlightenment ideas of freedom and equality to the
masses (birth of the mass media)

2. The rigid system of social stratification (in England any soldier
or merchant can become a lord).

3. Economic expansion pushing several classes up against No. 2

4. Repression rather raising the lid of the pressure cooker a bit.

One could say that the digital revolution has promoted No. 1 on a
global scale, but also their negation. Neoliberalism definitely ended
20th century class mobility (the 1% are increasingly like the 18th
century French nobility). Ah, No. 3, sorry folks it's moving in the
opposite direction, especially in the West. Not so sure which way No.
4 goes for us: my attitude to surveillance is that I can beat it. I'm
faster than they are.

The main point, however, to which nettime seems to be immune, is that
we (the insular white critics) are not going to be where the action is
and don't have a clue about how to hook up with the majority who are
already there.

Keith

On Mon, Sep 4, 2017 at 10:56 AM, Patrice Riemens 
wrote:


Well, there is an absurdly simple way to achieve this change of
calculus, though a costly one - for us: leave the screens, go down
in the street and start getting killed by the riot police,
preferably in numbers. No modern 'democratic' dispensation survives
that, as Jacques Chirac knew all too well. His successors everywhere
might be less smart, but they shall discover soon enough that lethal
repression is very costly indeed, as it upsets the cart of the
consumption-based economy real bad. Of course when Xi-JinPing
marches in, what will happen sooner rather than later, the whole
rule-book will change, but in the meanwhile we do have some
opportunity to 'change that calculus' ...

On 2017-09-04 10:44, Felix Stalder wrote:


Recently, the German political scientist Ulrike Guérot argued
that
digital technologies changed the political calculus of the ruling
elites: repression is now seen as cheaper than redistribution to
maintain the system.

This research, by the Center for Political Studies (CPS),
University of
Michigan, puts numbers to this claim.  Advanced democracies
spent just
shy of $9 billion to surveil 74% of their population, at a cost
of
$10/person. Now, this of course are not the entire costs of the
apparatus of repression, but just indicates how incredibly cheap
surveillance blanket surveillance has become.

To gain any traction for political change, we need to change this
calculus, by making surveillance and repression expensive again.

Felix

http://cpsblog.isr.umich.edu/?p=2129 [1]

<...>

While nations worldwide have spent at least $27.1 billion USD (or
$7 per
individual) to surveil 4.138 billion individuals (i.e., 73
percent of
the world population), stable autocracies are the highest
per-capita
spenders on mass surveillance. In total, authoritarian regimes
have
spent $10.967 billion USD to surveil 81 percent of their
populations
(0.1 billion individuals), even though this sub-set of states
tends to
have the lowest levels of high-technology capabilities. Stable
autocracies have also invested 11-fold more than any other
regime-type,
by spending $110 USD per individual surveilled, followed
second-highest
by advanced democracies who have invested $8.909 billion USD in
total
($11 USD per individual) covering 0.812 billion individuals (74
percent
of their population). In contrast to high-spending dictatorships
and
democracies, developing and emerging democracies have invested
$4.784
billion USD (or $1-2 per individual) for tracking 2.875 billion
people
(72 percent of their population).

It is possible that in a hyper-globalizing environment
increasingly
characterized by non-state economic (e.g., multi-national
corporations)
and political (e.g., transnational terror organizations)
activity,
nation-states have both learned from and mimicked each other’s
investments in mass surveillance as an increasingly central
activity in
exercising power over their polities and jurisdictions. It is
also
likely that the technological revolution in digitally-enabled big
data
and cloud computing capabilities as well as the ubiquitous
digital
wiring of global populations (through mobile telephony and
digital
communication) have technically enabled states to access and
organize
population-wide data on their citizens in ways not possible in
previous
eras.

<>


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Re: Make Donald Duck Again

2017-02-15 Thread walter palmetshofer
> A Chromium addon is in the works.

Big crowds of enthusiastic supporters lining the road to the chrome 
store that the FAKE NEWS media refuses to mention. Very dishonest!
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/make-donald-duck-again/pkeonejbepmplegbepgiehdaajapopkb

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Re: What is the meaning of Trump's

2016-11-16 Thread walter palmetshofer
> For a glimpse into the future of "news", take a look at the New Yorker's
> portrait of Mike Cernovich:
> 
> http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/31/trolls-for-trump

dear Sebastian,

thanks for the link. I just wanted to add that an article about
Cernovich without mentioning Scott Adams (Dilbert creator) might be
missing some puzzle piece for a glimpse into the future of
"campaigning".*)

Disclaimer: I'm not supporting their world views, just found the
description of techniques and how to spot them sometimes really
interesting and spot-on.

Adams is his "twitter buddy" and the "softer" version, see his blog
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/143164301421/how-powerful-is-persuasion
worth looking at it to understand certain techniques. Adams deserves
some credit for making reasonable predictions and analyses.

Starting September 2015 with

"On a scale from 1 to 10, if Steve Jobs was a 10, Trump is a 15."

Predicting GOP nomination and and possible win, and how that is even
possible.  Describing the persuasion stuff imho really well.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/129784168866/the-persuasion-reading-list

A classic and worth looking 8 minutes video "Linguistic Kill Shots"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55NxKENplG4
from Oct. 6th 2015, Adams describing the Trump during the primaries:

"You know how the media has made fun of Trump’s 4th-grade-level speech 
patterns?
The joke’s on them.
He does it intentionally.
Because it works."

The reason why I bring this up is that Trump is of course not the only
doing this.  In Austria presidential candidate Hofer is on the same
track, 4th December is the date, last time it was little bit close, we
will see how it will go down this time.

Also for that upcoming election the quote from Adams fits regarding how
things are handled in Austria ...

"He is the guy who brought a flamethrower to a stick fight."

best regards,
walter

*) Some stuff we have seen already during the Brexit campaign. Given
that the whole political advisor circus takes the "learnings" from the
US to Europe over the next years we will have the pleasure to have more
trumply and bigly campaigns. (i.e. .AT Lo(w)patka)

Further links

Here is Cernovich interviewed, imho more "raw and real" than the article
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQNP9V0b5IM

imagine a potential Trump voter lets say from the Midwest watch that in
comparison to reading the article about Cernovich.

Scott & Cernovich https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uH3zOmYDmj0

for German speaking people - Analyse von Norbert Hofer
https://cms.falter.at/falter/2016/05/03/norbert-der-profi/
https://cms.falter.at/falter/hofers-spiel-eine-videoserie-ueber-rhetorische-tricks/

Btw. regarding the techniques Cialdini's new book "pre-suasion" is out.
nudge, nudge!

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Re: BEPS Blues

2016-07-12 Thread walter palmetshofer
> BEPS stands for 'Base Erosion and Profit Shifting'

BEPS that ...

Goodbye Double Irish, Hello Knowledge Box
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2014-10-15/goodbye-double-irish-hello-knowledge-box
after the announcement they will close down the "Double Irish loop" 
within 6 years ... a timely replacement

‘Double Irish With a Dutch Sandwich’ explained
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/04/28/business/Double-Irish-With-A-Dutch-Sandwich.html

Google accounts show 11 billion euros moved via low tax 'Dutch sandwich' 
in 2014
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-google-tax-idUSKCN0VS1GP

Google 2.4% Rate Shows How $60 Billion Is Lost to Tax Loopholes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-10-21/google-2-4-rate-shows-how-60-billion-u-s-revenue-lost-to-tax-loopholes

7 Corporate Giants Accused of Evading Billions in Taxes
http://fortune.com/2016/03/11/apple-google-taxes-eu/
corporate tax-dodging costs the EU between $54.5 billion and $76.4 
billion a year

"Revelations of the extent of tax avoidance by multinationals based
on exploitation of the arm’s length system prompted a rear-guard
action by the OECD described as the base erosion and profit shifting
(BEPS) programme but the programme deliberately avoids any principled
re-examination of norms underlying the international tax regime or any
consideration of a shift from residence to source-based taxation."

The Troubling Role of Tax Treaties, by Kim Brooks (Dalhousie Dalhousie 
University – Schulich School of Law; Monash University – Faculty of Law; 
and Richard Krever, Monash University – Department of Business Law & 
Taxation, July 1, 2015.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2639064

and then my favourite: The Stachanow of Capitalism
the only employee (a mere 55.000 Euro annual salary) of ExxonMobil 
Spain: 9.9 billion Euro in net profits in 2 years

http://elpais.com/elpais/2011/02/27/inenglish/1298787648_850210.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3838c38-2398-11e3-98a1-00144feab7de.html#axzz4ED7ox8Xl

Google chairman Eric Schmidt is reportedly “very proud” of this. “It’s 
called capitalism,” he said last year.
https://hbr.org/2013/03/taxpayers-helped-apple-but-app



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Re: what if we were all right but all

2015-11-01 Thread walter palmetshofer
On 2015-11-01 17:15, Jaromil wrote:

> Instead he described the descent into 'oh dearism', or the posture of 
> impotently observing one disaster after
> another with no idea about how to intervene to end or ameliorate the
> situation.

to which the only response is to say, "Oh dear" ...

Adam Curtis' 5min segment from Charlie Brooker's Newswipe (2014)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcy8uLjRHPM


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Re: Pricing a Protest: Forecasting the Dynamics of Civil

2015-10-11 Thread walter palmetshofer
Maybe this is interesting in that context:

Social Unrest: Millennial Uprising Scenario 2015 by Cambridge Centre for Risk 
Studies

slides 
http://www.risk.jbs.cam.ac.uk/news/events/other/downloads/150122_riskbriefing_socialunrestrisk_slides.pdf

report http://cambridgeriskframework.com/getdocument/22

Also a few days ago there was the Recorded Future User Network
Conference, perhaps Dan Geer can chip in on the latest.

>From the department nothing new under the sun:

This was from 2012 

http://semanticommunity.info/AOL_Government/2012_Recorded_Future_User_Conference

back then recordedfuture had interesting webinars on monitoring protest 
and social unrest, here claiming 85% accuracy for their prediction 2012 

https://youtu.be/ffPSocrmfQI?t=213

Monitoring Protests and Unrest - Recorded Future Webcast 2012

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Sbny91NjeA

Monitoring Social Media Authors 2014

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGMg1jNF3D4

also interesting Quid https://youtu.be/mKZCa_ejbfg?t=890

CEO 

https://gigaom.com/2013/05/21/the-future-of-propaganda-a-qa-with-sean-gourley-about-big-data-and-the-war-of-ideas/

http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2012/05/14/152444019/algorithms-the-ever-growing-all-knowing-way-of-the-future

and the above mentioned Cytora - Real-Time Political Risk Analysis 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJsriO_o_9I

Future research projects http://minerva.dtic.mil/funded.html

And then there is always enterprise solution Palantir.


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