Hi Alex,
I failed to mention in my previous post that ATT is also waiting for the IPTV
software fixes from MSFT and others, IN ADDITION to its copper handicap at the
present time.
No argument w.r.t.:
The jury is still *way* out what is the right way. ADSL2 is enough
capacity to give you video.
But so can ADSL operating at 6 or 8 Mbps give your video.
ADSL2/ADSL2plus will double the downstream rate, and if the carrier elects to
use
pair bonding (the use of two pairs instead of one), speeds upwards of 25 Mbps or
greater in the downstream can be achieved. However, the problem today, as
opposed
to the video dialtone days of the nineties, is that the telcos now must be able
to support not only a single NTSC (standard) tv set, but a combination of up to
three different, concurrent TV viewings in a household in addition to supporting
VoIP (how many phones?) and high speed Internet access (by how many concurrent
users?), not to mention Junior and his friends engaging in online gaming. That
is, if they wish to remain competitive with the Cable Operators, who've been
doing this now for quite some time.
ADSL2, under optimal conditions (meaning, the residence is spaced at a very
short
distances from the field node) can deliver as advertized, assuming the software
is in place and the user isn't demanding very high Internet access speed. If the
total speed is 12 Mbps, say, which is the high end of ADSL2, and three TV sets
are sopping up 9, then there is only 3 left for HSI, VoIP and whatever else goes
on in a home (gaming, hosting, p2p, etc.). Throw in a single (or two) concurrent
HDTV session(s), which is not far-fetched anymore, and all bets are off for most
other discretionary uses.
But longer loop lengths are still problematic. This is why the telco operators
in
some foreign countries are now promoting single session TV viewing capabilities
over their native copper ADSL services, and making no bones about it. When ADSL
speeds are low enough in those locales, it becomes a matter of either TV or
Internet access (plus phone service, too, if they're using a splitter
arrangement), but not both. The challenges facing the RBOCs won't be as severe
as
all that. But challenges they'll continue to be, at least for a while longer. It
remains to be seen what ATT is going to do for the majority of its users who
reside outside optimal distances, other than to put them on longer waiting lists
than they initially anticipated, or building field nodes (meaning a lot more of
them) closer to homes at the extra expense.
---
As for Verizon going bankrupt, that's another discussion, possibly another
several discussions, entirely. If the consumer wireline side ever did become
distressed due to the misadventures of FiOS, then you might see something
occurring similar to what BT has done, shedding some of its outside plant to
competitors or independent operators, or re-opening the unbundled loop area, or
the government might even intervene with something that is creative and
transformative, for a change. Like, supporting the creation of neutral a Loop Co
framework in partnership with municipalities. Or, the company might simply pull
back and cease its capital projects for a while. Who knows.
One thing I don't think you'll see is the cash-cow wireless side of the business
bailing out the wireline side. The company wouldn't be stupid enough, by the
time
things got that bad, to throw good money after bad, because doing so would sink
both ships.
Frank
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