[nysbirds-l] Winter Finch Forecast 2011-2012
Forwarding from Ontbirds, the Ontario birding list. Good birding! Willie WINTER FINCH FORECAST 2011-2012 This winter’s theme is that cone crops are excellent and extensive across much of the boreal forest and the Northeast. It will not be a flight year. Finches will be spread thinly over a vast area from western Canada east across the Hudson Bay Lowlands into Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces, New York and New England States. White-winged and Red Crossbills and Pine Siskins should be widespread in low numbers. A small movement of Pine Grosbeaks is probable because mountain-ash berry crops are variable and some are of poor quality in the boreal forest. Evening Grosbeak numbers are increasing as spruce budworm outbreaks expand in the boreal forest so some may show up at feeders in southern Ontario and the Northeast. Redpolls are unlikely to come south because the dwarf birch crop is bumper in the Hudson Bay Lowlands. See individual finch forecasts below for details. Three irruptive non‐finch passerines are also discussed. PINE GROSBEAK: Small numbers are likely in southern Ontario because the mountain‐ash berry crop is variable with some poor quality crops in the boreal forest of Ontario. The crop is generally very good to excellent in Atlantic Canada, New York and New England. Pine Grosbeaks wandering to southern Ontario will find average berry crops on European mountain‐ash, good crops on Buckthorn and average crops on ornamental crabapples. Expect a few at sunflower seed feeders. PURPLE FINCH: Purple Finches will be uncommon in Ontario, but probably in higher numbers in Atlantic Canada, New York and New England where cone crops are excellent. A few may frequent feeders in southern Ontario. The Purple Finch has declined significantly in recent decades. Some suggest it declined due to competition with the House Finch. However, the drop in numbers began before House Finches were common in eastern North America and also occurred where House Finches were absent. A better explanation for the decrease is the absence of large spruce budworm outbreaks that probably sustained higher Purple Finch populations in the past. RED CROSSBILL: Red Crossbills should be widespread in Ontario in very small numbers, but much more frequent in the Northeast where cone crops are excellent. This crossbill comprises at least 10 “call types” in North America. Some types may be separate species. Most types are almost impossible to identify without recordings of their “flight calls”. Recordings can be made using your iPhone. Send recordings to be identified to Matt Young (may6 at cornell dot edu) at The Cornell Lab of Ornithology. Most Red Crossbill types in winter prefer pines, but they also use introduced spruces and European larch. The smallest‐billed Type 3 prefers the small soft cones of hemlock and white spruce. It may occur in the Northeast this winter drawn to the excellent crops on hemlock and white spruce. WHITE-WINGED CROSSBILL: Good numbers of White‐winged Crossbills are currently widespread in the Hudson Bay Lowlands where the white and black spruce cone crops are bumper. They may remain there this winter or some could wander to the Northeast where spruce and hemlock cone crops are excellent. A few should be in traditional areas such as Algonquin Park where spruce and hemlock cone crops are better than last winter. Unlike the Red Crossbill, the White‐winged Crossbill in North America has no subspecies and call types. COMMON and HOARY REDPOLLS: Redpolls in winter are a birch seed specialist and movements are linked to the size of the birch crop. Redpolls are unlikely to come south in numbers this winter because the dwarf birch crop is bumper in the Hudson Bay Lowlands. Those that wander south of the boreal forest will be stopped by a fair to good seed crop on white and yellow birches in the mixed coniferous/deciduous forest region north of Lake Ontario. PINE SISKIN: The nomadic siskin is a spruce seed specialist. There are currently large numbers of siskins in Yukon including a high proportion of hatch year birds. They will move because the spruce crop is average in Yukon and Alaska this year, possibly coming to the East. Siskins are expected to be widespread across Ontario this winter. Good numbers are likely to be drawn to the excellent spruce and hemlock crops in Atlantic Canada, New York and New England. EVENING GROSBEAK: We can expect another good showing at feeders similar to last winter in central Ontario and probably elsewhere in the Northeast. Highest breeding densities are found in areas with spruce budworm outbreaks. Grosbeak numbers are increasing as spruce budworm outbreaks expand in Ontario and Quebec. However, current populations are still much lower than several decades ago when budworm outbreaks were widespread and extensive. THREE IRRUPTIVE PASSERINES: Movements of these species are often linked to the boreal
[nysbirds-l] Winter Finch Forecast 2011-2012
Forwarding from Ontbirds, the Ontario birding list. Good birding! Willie WINTER FINCH FORECAST 2011-2012 This winter’s theme is that cone crops are excellent and extensive across much of the boreal forest and the Northeast. It will not be a flight year. Finches will be spread thinly over a vast area from western Canada east across the Hudson Bay Lowlands into Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces, New York and New England States. White-winged and Red Crossbills and Pine Siskins should be widespread in low numbers. A small movement of Pine Grosbeaks is probable because mountain-ash berry crops are variable and some are of poor quality in the boreal forest. Evening Grosbeak numbers are increasing as spruce budworm outbreaks expand in the boreal forest so some may show up at feeders in southern Ontario and the Northeast. Redpolls are unlikely to come south because the dwarf birch crop is bumper in the Hudson Bay Lowlands. See individual finch forecasts below for details. Three irruptive non‐finch passerines are also discussed. PINE GROSBEAK: Small numbers are likely in southern Ontario because the mountain‐ash berry crop is variable with some poor quality crops in the boreal forest of Ontario. The crop is generally very good to excellent in Atlantic Canada, New York and New England. Pine Grosbeaks wandering to southern Ontario will find average berry crops on European mountain‐ash, good crops on Buckthorn and average crops on ornamental crabapples. Expect a few at sunflower seed feeders. PURPLE FINCH: Purple Finches will be uncommon in Ontario, but probably in higher numbers in Atlantic Canada, New York and New England where cone crops are excellent. A few may frequent feeders in southern Ontario. The Purple Finch has declined significantly in recent decades. Some suggest it declined due to competition with the House Finch. However, the drop in numbers began before House Finches were common in eastern North America and also occurred where House Finches were absent. A better explanation for the decrease is the absence of large spruce budworm outbreaks that probably sustained higher Purple Finch populations in the past. RED CROSSBILL: Red Crossbills should be widespread in Ontario in very small numbers, but much more frequent in the Northeast where cone crops are excellent. This crossbill comprises at least 10 “call types” in North America. Some types may be separate species. Most types are almost impossible to identify without recordings of their “flight calls”. Recordings can be made using your iPhone. Send recordings to be identified to Matt Young (may6 at cornell dot edu) at The Cornell Lab of Ornithology. Most Red Crossbill types in winter prefer pines, but they also use introduced spruces and European larch. The smallest‐billed Type 3 prefers the small soft cones of hemlock and white spruce. It may occur in the Northeast this winter drawn to the excellent crops on hemlock and white spruce. WHITE-WINGED CROSSBILL: Good numbers of White‐winged Crossbills are currently widespread in the Hudson Bay Lowlands where the white and black spruce cone crops are bumper. They may remain there this winter or some could wander to the Northeast where spruce and hemlock cone crops are excellent. A few should be in traditional areas such as Algonquin Park where spruce and hemlock cone crops are better than last winter. Unlike the Red Crossbill, the White‐winged Crossbill in North America has no subspecies and call types. COMMON and HOARY REDPOLLS: Redpolls in winter are a birch seed specialist and movements are linked to the size of the birch crop. Redpolls are unlikely to come south in numbers this winter because the dwarf birch crop is bumper in the Hudson Bay Lowlands. Those that wander south of the boreal forest will be stopped by a fair to good seed crop on white and yellow birches in the mixed coniferous/deciduous forest region north of Lake Ontario. PINE SISKIN: The nomadic siskin is a spruce seed specialist. There are currently large numbers of siskins in Yukon including a high proportion of hatch year birds. They will move because the spruce crop is average in Yukon and Alaska this year, possibly coming to the East. Siskins are expected to be widespread across Ontario this winter. Good numbers are likely to be drawn to the excellent spruce and hemlock crops in Atlantic Canada, New York and New England. EVENING GROSBEAK: We can expect another good showing at feeders similar to last winter in central Ontario and probably elsewhere in the Northeast. Highest breeding densities are found in areas with spruce budworm outbreaks. Grosbeak numbers are increasing as spruce budworm outbreaks expand in Ontario and Quebec. However, current populations are still much lower than several decades ago when budworm outbreaks were widespread and extensive. THREE IRRUPTIVE PASSERINES: Movements of these species are often linked to the boreal
