Yang bener TP 2325 Pak Juragan Cumi? Kita baru nungguin di 3250 neh Segitu juga gak dikasih
On Mon, Feb 9, 2009 at 6:46 AM, Cumi Goreng Tepung <cumie...@gmail.com>wrote: > London Sumatra Indonesia (FULLY VALUED; Rp3,450; Bloomberg Code: LSIP > IJ) Expanding cautiously Price Target : 12-month Rp 2,325 (Prev Rp > 1,600) > by: Ben Santoso +65 6398 7976 > and Indonesia Research Team +6221 3983 2668 > > We recently met with London Sumatra (Lonsum) management. We expect the > company to proceed with its expansion plans this year, despite a US$26m > debt repayment and existing immature capex. Higher yields should also > improve production growth (vs DBSV assumption) for this year. We tweaked > our production assumptions and imputed a weaker IDR, but maintained our > CPO price assumption at US$570 (CIF). Lonsum remains Fully Valued with a > revised Rp2,325 target price. > > 4Q08 results preview. We understand that Lonsum might have achieved > slightly lower-than-expected FFB and CPO production volumes last year > due to falling yields in 4Q08. It also had a slightly larger matured > area in 2008, although new planting achieved was 25% less than expected. > However, with a weaker average IDR rate for the quarter, we still expect > 4Q08 net profit to meet our Rp134bn forecast. > > Solid balance sheet to sustain growth. We expect 10,000 ha of new > planting this year as Lonsum should have sufficient cash, although > management declined to give a target. CPO production growth could also > be larger as FFB yield is guided to improve this year. > > Higher target price due to weaker IDR. We imputed weaker IDR/USD rates > in our forecast. Our new rates are Rp11,000 (from Rp9,575) for FY09F and > Rp9,700 (from Rp9,150) for FY10F. Accordingly, our target price for LSIP > is raised to Rp2,325 (from Rp1,600), but we are maintaining our Fully > Valued rating for Lonsum. > > (See attached file: LSIP060209.pdf) > >
