[obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential di fficulties offset attractive price
.. mungkin FENI I-IV na ANTM mau disabotase ama ML kali pak ... :) ... so tinggal GOLD aja ... pan GOLD menyumbang less than 10% dr income na ANTM ... btw kl mau ke 900 sih kita tampung aja .. ane masih hold neh ANTM yg ane beli di 10xx ... kl turun avg down aja ... makan dividen gpp deh taun ini ... biasa na dividen na BUMN lumayan .. apalagi mau election nih ... kali aja ANTM berbaik ati bagi dividen diatas 50% an dr net income na ... ... btw apa gak salah baca pak ? ... udah males ane skrg kl baca2 riset sekuritas ... apalagi ML yg kl gak di bailout udah bangkrut ... :) --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, ARRAY27 arra...@... wrote: Maksudnya ML apa nih. Net income ANTM 2009 diestimasi cuma 8% dari estimasi net income 2008? Enggak kira2 ya. Sekalian saja diestimasi rugi dan bangkrut, kayak ML-nya sendiri. Kalo harga saham emang bisa saja turun ke 900, kayak ML guyur bumi ke 4xx-5xx. Tapi kalo laba emitennya yang diguyur tinggal 8% itu gimana caranya? Begitu parahnya kah ANTM??? 2009/2/16 Cumi Goreng Tepung cumie...@... ati-ati aja, kali aja ada ML's Daisy Suryo strikes back! Salam, Korban BUMI? Makan cumi saja! On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 3:55 PM, Yudizz y_d...@... wrote: Si ML ini belum tahu ya kalo embernya Pak Rei gede banget. Bukan ember lagi, udah kaya waduk malah. Kekekek... Canda Bos... Regards, Yudizz Send from My Nokia Nseries supported by Mail for Exchange 2.0 --- original message --- From: Rei highwaysta...@... Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential difficulties offset attractive price Date: 16th February 2009 Time: 1:09:35 pm Shtlet it be...if they give us 900, we would be very happy!!! On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 1:07 PM, SyIFA Fund syifa.f...@... wrote: Ohh...ML just CAUTIOUS like usual. Underground mining is difficult?come on...ML analyst should go to Aceh and Kalimantan and should see that underground mining is no longer difficult...just hire the Australian to do that. And IF you guys carefully read this ML analyst report, you can see too many conflicts in her writing. That make me CAUTIOUS also..hehe...PEACE. Regards, SF FM Where you can trust your fund --- On *Mon, 2/16/09, simon bolenang simon_bolen...@...* wrote: From: simon bolenang simon_bolen...@... Subject: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential difficulties offset attractive price To: obrolan-bandar yahoogroups obrolan- ban...@yahoogroups.com, saham yahoogroups sa...@yahoogroups.com Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 5:46 AM *Muted reaction to recent gold asset acquisition* ANTM has signed a Heads of Agreement to transfer ownership of PT Cibaliung Sumber Daya (CSD) from Arc Exploration to ANTM. ANTM will settle Arc's US$8mn debt to ANZ. The move should effectively make ANTM the sole owner of the undeveloped Cibaliung gold mine, in which CSD has a 95% stake. While we think the price is attractive, our reaction is muted given past project delays and mining difficulty. Mining is by underground cut-and-fill stoping with decline access. *Cibaliung mining not straightforward, in our view* True, ANTM might get Cibaliung for a cheap price: US$8mn for a 95% stake in Cibaliung, which has 412,000 oz reserves (US$20.4/oz) . And we understand Arc has spent a substantial amount to develop the mine. However, considering project commissioning has been delayed for around two years on capex overrun, some financing difficulty and some development phase delays, we are now at the wait and see stage. ANTM is targeting to spend an additional US$35-40mn to bring it into operation in 2H10. *ANTM still largely a nickel company after the acquisition* We view Cibaliung more as a replacement for ANTM's Pongkor gold mine rather than a significant addition. As of December 2007, Pongkor gold reserve was 742,750 oz, which we estimate can last for another 3-4 years based on historical peak production. By 2011 we expect ANTM to still be largely a nickel producer, with nickel contributing about 70% of total revenue. *Our stance: still cautious near term* We have yet to see a rebound in nickel price with LME inventory still creeping up and the global economy yet to recover. We await FY08 results to get fuller details, and indicators to what lies ahead. ANTM has warned of a potential derivative loss, which we believe could negatively impact its cash position. As of Sep 2008, its net cash was ~US$260mn. This message and any attachment are confidential and may be privileged or otherwise protected from disclosure. If you are not the intended recipient please telephone or e-mail the sender and delete this message and all attachments from your system.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential di fficulties offset attractive price
ga make sense ahh.. cm naik 8%.. tp downgrade cuma ke 900..hahaha... --- On Mon, 2/16/09, sylar_fang sylar_f...@yahoo.co.id wrote: From: sylar_fang sylar_f...@yahoo.co.id Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential di fficulties offset attractive price To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 6:01 AM ... mungkin FENI I-IV na ANTM mau disabotase ama ML kali pak ... :) ... so tinggal GOLD aja ... pan GOLD menyumbang less than 10% dr income na ANTM ... btw kl mau ke 900 sih kita tampung aja .. ane masih hold neh ANTM yg ane beli di 10xx ... kl turun avg down aja ... makan dividen gpp deh taun ini ... biasa na dividen na BUMN lumayan .. apalagi mau election nih ... kali aja ANTM berbaik ati bagi dividen diatas 50% an dr net income na ... btw apa gak salah baca pak ? ... udah males ane skrg kl baca2 riset sekuritas ... apalagi ML yg kl gak di bailout udah bangkrut ... :) --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, ARRAY27 arra...@... wrote: Maksudnya ML apa nih. Net income ANTM 2009 diestimasi cuma 8% dari estimasi net income 2008? Enggak kira2 ya. Sekalian saja diestimasi rugi dan bangkrut, kayak ML-nya sendiri. Kalo harga saham emang bisa saja turun ke 900, kayak ML guyur bumi ke 4xx-5xx. Tapi kalo laba emitennya yang diguyur tinggal 8% itu gimana caranya? Begitu parahnya kah ANTM??? 2009/2/16 Cumi Goreng Tepung cumie...@.. . ati-ati aja, kali aja ada ML's Daisy Suryo strikes back! Salam, Korban BUMI? Makan cumi saja! On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 3:55 PM, Yudizz y_d...@... wrote: Si ML ini belum tahu ya kalo embernya Pak Rei gede banget. Bukan ember lagi, udah kaya waduk malah. Kekekek... Canda Bos... Regards, Yudizz Send from My Nokia Nseries supported by Mail for Exchange 2.0 --- original message --- From: Rei highwaystar91@ ... Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential difficulties offset attractive price Date: 16th February 2009 Time: 1:09:35 pm Shtlet it be...if they give us 900, we would be very happy!!! On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 1:07 PM, SyIFA Fund syifa.fund@ ... wrote: Ohh...ML just CAUTIOUS like usual. Underground mining is difficult?come on...ML analyst should go to Aceh and Kalimantan and should see that underground mining is no longer difficult... just hire the Australian to do that. And IF you guys carefully read this ML analyst report, you can see too many conflicts in her writing. That make me CAUTIOUS also..hehe.. .PEACE. Regards, SF FM Where you can trust your fund --- On *Mon, 2/16/09, simon bolenang simon_bolenang@ ...* wrote: From: simon bolenang simon_bolenang@ ... Subject: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential difficulties offset attractive price To: obrolan-bandar yahoogroups obrolan- ban...@yahoogroups. com, saham yahoogroups sa...@yahoogroups. com Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 5:46 AM *Muted reaction to recent gold asset acquisition* ANTM has signed a Heads of Agreement to transfer ownership of PT Cibaliung Sumber Daya (CSD) from Arc Exploration to ANTM. ANTM will settle Arc's US$8mn debt to ANZ. The move should effectively make ANTM the sole owner of the undeveloped Cibaliung gold mine, in which CSD has a 95% stake. While we think the price is attractive, our reaction is muted given past project delays and mining difficulty. Mining is by underground cut-and-fill stoping with decline access. *Cibaliung mining not straightforward, in our view* True, ANTM might get Cibaliung for a cheap price: US$8mn for a 95% stake in Cibaliung, which has 412,000 oz reserves (US$20.4/oz) . And we understand Arc has spent a substantial amount to develop the mine. However, considering project commissioning has been delayed for around two years on capex overrun, some financing difficulty and some development phase delays, we are now at the wait and see stage. ANTM is targeting to spend an additional US$35-40mn to bring it into operation in 2H10. *ANTM still largely a nickel company after the acquisition* We view Cibaliung more as a replacement for ANTM's Pongkor gold mine rather than a significant addition. As of December 2007, Pongkor gold reserve was 742,750 oz, which we estimate can last for another 3-4 years based on historical peak production. By 2011 we expect ANTM to still be largely a nickel producer, with nickel contributing about 70% of total revenue. *Our stance: still cautious near term* We have yet to see a rebound in nickel price with LME inventory still creeping up
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential di fficulties offset attractive price
ada nasabah ml? coba aja tanya langsung ke analisnya. saya pernah nemu angka yang menurut saya gak masuk akal di suatu riset keluaran broker saya, terus saya tanyakan ke analisnya. ternyata angka tersebut SALAH. Analis Juga Manusia. On 2/16/09, thom chris thom_chris2...@yahoo.com wrote: ga make sense ahh.. cm naik 8%.. tp downgrade cuma ke 900..hahaha... --- On Mon, 2/16/09, sylar_fang sylar_f...@yahoo.co.id wrote: From: sylar_fang sylar_f...@yahoo.co.id Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential di fficulties offset attractive price To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 6:01 AM ... mungkin FENI I-IV na ANTM mau disabotase ama ML kali pak ... :) ... so tinggal GOLD aja ... pan GOLD menyumbang less than 10% dr income na ANTM ... btw kl mau ke 900 sih kita tampung aja .. ane masih hold neh ANTM yg ane beli di 10xx ... kl turun avg down aja ... makan dividen gpp deh taun ini ... biasa na dividen na BUMN lumayan .. apalagi mau election nih ... kali aja ANTM berbaik ati bagi dividen diatas 50% an dr net income na ... btw apa gak salah baca pak ? ... udah males ane skrg kl baca2 riset sekuritas ... apalagi ML yg kl gak di bailout udah bangkrut ... :) --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, ARRAY27 arra...@... wrote: Maksudnya ML apa nih. Net income ANTM 2009 diestimasi cuma 8% dari estimasi net income 2008? Enggak kira2 ya. Sekalian saja diestimasi rugi dan bangkrut, kayak ML-nya sendiri. Kalo harga saham emang bisa saja turun ke 900, kayak ML guyur bumi ke 4xx-5xx. Tapi kalo laba emitennya yang diguyur tinggal 8% itu gimana caranya? Begitu parahnya kah ANTM??? 2009/2/16 Cumi Goreng Tepung cumie...@.. . ati-ati aja, kali aja ada ML's Daisy Suryo strikes back! Salam, Korban BUMI? Makan cumi saja! On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 3:55 PM, Yudizz y_d...@... wrote: Si ML ini belum tahu ya kalo embernya Pak Rei gede banget. Bukan ember lagi, udah kaya waduk malah. Kekekek... Canda Bos... Regards, Yudizz Send from My Nokia Nseries supported by Mail for Exchange 2.0 --- original message --- From: Rei highwaystar91@ ... Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential difficulties offset attractive price Date: 16th February 2009 Time: 1:09:35 pm Shtlet it be...if they give us 900, we would be very happy!!! On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 1:07 PM, SyIFA Fund syifa.fund@ ... wrote: Ohh...ML just CAUTIOUS like usual. Underground mining is difficult?come on...ML analyst should go to Aceh and Kalimantan and should see that underground mining is no longer difficult... just hire the Australian to do that. And IF you guys carefully read this ML analyst report, you can see too many conflicts in her writing. That make me CAUTIOUS also..hehe.. .PEACE. Regards, SF FM Where you can trust your fund --- On *Mon, 2/16/09, simon bolenang simon_bolenang@ ...* wrote: From: simon bolenang simon_bolenang@ ... Subject: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential difficulties offset attractive price To: obrolan-bandar yahoogroups obrolan- ban...@yahoogroups. com, saham yahoogroups sa...@yahoogroups. com Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 5:46 AM *Muted reaction to recent gold asset acquisition* ANTM has signed a Heads of Agreement to transfer ownership of PT Cibaliung Sumber Daya (CSD) from Arc Exploration to ANTM. ANTM will settle Arc's US$8mn debt to ANZ. The move should effectively make ANTM the sole owner of the undeveloped Cibaliung gold mine, in which CSD has a 95% stake. While we think the price is attractive, our reaction is muted given past project delays and mining difficulty. Mining is by underground cut-and-fill stoping with decline access. *Cibaliung mining not straightforward, in our view* True, ANTM might get Cibaliung for a cheap price: US$8mn for a 95% stake in Cibaliung, which has 412,000 oz reserves (US$20.4/oz) . And we understand Arc has spent a substantial amount to develop the mine. However, considering project commissioning has been delayed for around two years on capex overrun, some financing difficulty and some development phase delays, we are now at the wait and see stage. ANTM is targeting to spend an additional US$35-40mn to bring it into operation in 2H10. *ANTM still largely a nickel company after the acquisition* We view Cibaliung more as a replacement for ANTM's Pongkor gold mine rather than a significant addition. As of December 2007, Pongkor gold reserve was 742,750 oz, which we estimate can last for another 3-4 years based on historical
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential di fficulties offset attractive price
hehehe...iya pak,klo bisa meramal masa depan namanya mungkin bukan analis tapi
ahli nujum :p ( canda pak )
saya setuju banget pak emang klo yang namanya analis belum tentu benar,jadi
jangan telen bulat2,lha wong berita apa yang bakal keluar besok aja gak tau:p
dan kalau pun mereka tau saya gak yakin mereka bisa pastiin posisi apa yang
investor bakal pasang ( buy/sell ) waktu lihat data/berita tersebut,dan berapa
besar power dari tiap2 orang nya, toh memang yang mengendalikan pasar itu kan
murni presepsi yang bisa berubah dalam hitungan detik,seandai yang saya sebut
diatas mereka semua bisa pastiin,saya gak yakin mereka bisa juga memastikan
bahwa variabel2 lain nya tetap,contoh harga komoditas nya,atau mungkin bencana
alam,dsb.hehehe
nama nya juga pasar ada yang jual,ada yang beli,dan tidak ada yang namanya
garansi di dunia ini,karna sifat data nya yang variabel itu...yah klo saya
boleh kasih recomendasi Get used with it,toh dari downgrade bisa jadi upgrade
klo memang variabel nya berubah dan sebalik nya..wong peramal aja yang jelas2
memposisikan diri sebagai orang yang dapat melihat dan meramal masa
depan,akurasi ramalan nya aja ada yang gak kejadian ( sorry bukan mo
menyepelekan masalah ) apa lagi analis yang jelas2 mapang disclaimer besar di
setiap riset nya dengan penjelasan detail dibawah nya sehalaman penuh..analis
juga manusia hehehe
hehehe...saya kok jadi inget kata kawan saya waktu saya pertama kali berkenalan
dengan pasar modal,dia bilang di sini yang namanya informasi itu bisa jadi 1000
presepsi,dan 1 data bisa jadi 1000 penilaian yang berbeda,dan yang lucunya di
sini orang2 harus doyan gosip soalnya klo ada berita gak digosok dulu, lu kagak
akan dapet apa2...hehehe,tapi itu realita lho,ya klo mau liat riset fundamental
mungkin bisa coba perhatikan dasar penilaian nya menggunakan metode analisa
apa,karna setau saya banyak sekali metode yang bisa di pakai untuk mengolah
data dan ajaib nya semuanya bener lha wong ada dasar nya kok...hehehe
harusnya sih analis itu memang bertindak sebagai expert advisor,orang2 yang
memang fokus nya melakuakn riset dan digaji untuk itu,tugas utamnya memang
ngasih opini,lha klo yang di kasih opini gak mau ikutin toh gak masalah kan
hehehe,orang eksekusi nya ada di tangan masing2 investor..gitu aja kok repot :p
peace :-)
- Original Message -
From: Cumi Goreng Tepung
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, February 16, 2009 9:01 PM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential
di fficulties offset attractive price
ada nasabah ml?
coba aja tanya langsung ke analisnya. saya pernah nemu angka yang
menurut saya gak masuk akal di suatu riset keluaran broker saya, terus
saya tanyakan ke analisnya. ternyata angka tersebut SALAH.
Analis Juga Manusia.
On 2/16/09, thom chris thom_chris2...@yahoo.com wrote:
ga make sense ahh.. cm naik 8%.. tp downgrade cuma ke 900..hahaha...
--- On Mon, 2/16/09, sylar_fang sylar_f...@yahoo.co.id wrote:
From: sylar_fang sylar_f...@yahoo.co.id
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: ANTM (TP Rp900) - Merrill Lynch: Potential di
fficulties offset attractive price
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Date: Monday, February 16, 2009, 6:01 AM
... mungkin FENI I-IV na ANTM mau disabotase ama ML kali
pak ... :) ... so tinggal GOLD aja ... pan GOLD menyumbang less than
10% dr income na ANTM ... btw kl mau ke 900 sih kita tampung aja ..
ane masih hold neh ANTM yg ane beli di 10xx ... kl turun avg down
aja ... makan dividen gpp deh taun ini ... biasa na dividen na BUMN
lumayan .. apalagi mau election nih ... kali aja ANTM berbaik ati
bagi dividen diatas 50% an dr net income na ...
btw apa gak salah baca pak ? ... udah males ane skrg kl baca2
riset sekuritas ... apalagi ML yg kl gak di bailout udah bangkrut ...
:)
--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, ARRAY27 arra...@... wrote:
Maksudnya ML apa nih. Net income ANTM 2009 diestimasi cuma 8% dari
estimasi
net income 2008? Enggak kira2 ya. Sekalian saja diestimasi rugi dan
bangkrut, kayak ML-nya sendiri. Kalo harga saham emang bisa saja
turun ke
900, kayak ML guyur bumi ke 4xx-5xx. Tapi kalo laba emitennya yang
diguyur
tinggal 8% itu gimana caranya? Begitu parahnya kah ANTM???
2009/2/16 Cumi Goreng Tepung cumie...@.. .
ati-ati aja, kali aja ada ML's Daisy Suryo strikes back!
Salam,
Korban BUMI? Makan cumi saja!
On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 3:55 PM, Yudizz y_d...@... wrote:
Si ML ini belum tahu ya kalo embernya Pak Rei gede banget.
Bukan ember
lagi, udah kaya waduk malah. Kekekek...
Canda Bos...
Regards,
Yudizz
Send from My Nokia Nseries
