Don't be fooled by a larger-than-expected increase in
consumer spending.
People aren't buying more -- they're just paying more
for what they buy.
That is raising doubts about whether the 130 million
stimulus payments the government began sending out
this week will be enough to lift consumers' sagging
spirits.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that
consumer spending was up 0.4 percent, double the
increase economists had forecast. However, once
inflation was removed, spending edged up a much slower
0.1 percent.
The March reading was the fourth straight lackluster
performance and did nothing to alleviate worries that
consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of
total economic activity, remains under severe strains,
reflecting an economy beset by multiple problems.
Rising food costs, soaring energy prices and falling
employment have pushed consumer confidence to its
lowest levels in five years. Incomes in March rose a
weak 0.3, but after removing inflation, after-tax
incomes were flat.
Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets,
said economic growth could still turn negative this
quarter even with the rebates. He cited a recent
Associated Press-Ipsos poll that found only 19 percent
of people plan to spend their rebates, with others
surveyed preferring instead to use the $600 to $1,200
checks for the typical family to pay off bills or
boost savings.
Guatieri said he expected the rebate checks to be a
moderate tonic, but he cautioned that once the
rebates are spent, growth could turn negative later
this year.
On Wall Street, investors brushed aside weak economic
reports to focus instead on a rebound in the dollar's
value against other currencies and falling oil prices.
The Dow Jones industrial average surged 189.87 points
to close at 13,010.00, the first close above 13,000
since Jan. 3.
The government reported Wednesday that the overall
economy, as measured by the gross domestic product,
eked out a 0.6 percent growth in the first three
months of this year, weak but still in positive
territory. Much of the drag in the first quarter came
from a tiny 1 percent growth in consumer spending, the
weakest increase since the economy was last in
recession in 2001.
Some analysts are worried that the GDP could turn
negative this quarter if there is a significant
cutback on production by businesses trying to work off
excess inventories and if consumers grow more glum in
the face of continued increases in unemployment.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless
claims jumped by a bigger-than-expected 35,000 last
week to total 380,000 with the number of people
receiving benefit checks rising to 3.02 million, the
first time that figure has surpassed 3 million in four
years.
In other signs of economic stress, the Commerce
Department said Thursday that construction spending
fell 1.1 percent in March with housing activity
plunging by a record 4.6 percent, indicating builders
are still cutting back sharply in the face of the
worst slump in housing in more than two decades.
On the inflation front, a price gauge tied to consumer
spending rose by 0.3 percent in March, triple the 0.1
percent rise in February. Much of that jump reflected
higher food and energy costs. Core inflation, which
excludes those categories, rose by 0.2 percent in
March and is up 2.1 percent over the past 12 months,
higher than the Fed's 1 percent to 2 percent comfort
zone.
If that performance continues, it would fly in the
face of the sell in May or June, and go away
suggests the possibility, not the probability, that
recent euphoric moves in equity prices and credit
market spreads might be premature.
--- farhan zailani [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Pak Oentoeng...bilang ama sopirnya untuk tancap
gaskemon Bang...
- Original Message
From: Ricky Wakiman [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, May 2, 2008 10:22:48 AM
Subject: PERAMAL IHSG PALING KREDIBEL Re: [??
Probable Spam] [obrolan-bandar] MINING turun
GANTIAN DONG
Sejujurnya saya kagum sekali sama Embah. Menurut
saya, beliau adalah peramal TREN IHSG paling
kredible di milis ini. Timingnya sangat akurat
dengan keyakinan diri (self confidence) yang sangat
tinggi. Ramalannya bener-bener ahead of trend,
bukannya follow trend.
Ramalan-ramalan lain biasanya follow trend. Waktu
indeks bearish, meramal bakal bearish. Waktu indeks
sudah bullish, meramal bakal bullish.
Embah nanya ke Mama Lauren ya? :-) (Just kidding)
Rgds,
RW
- Original Message -
From: www.titan
To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Friday, May 02, 2008 10:11 AM
Subject: [?? Probable Spam] [obrolan-bandar] MINING
turun GANTIAN DONG
Shm2 BC naik, kecuali tbumi
:D
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