Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Indonesia shares may trade flat to slightly higher, but would still be prone to
profit taking amid an absence of fresh leads and ahead of long holidays.Some
"impressive" performance on debut by Indo Tambangraya will still also color the
trade, although an idea to jack up share price to IDR22,000 looks too much!. I
would prefer to have my investment in BUMI which is dubbed as the nation's
LARGEST coal maker than in ITMG which only has a half size of BUMI.A plan to
close the year above 2700 remains intact, so as holding up your investment
until March would also be healthy.
Main index today may be going up and down by 37 points to reflect caution and
adjustment of portfolio.
Main index: 2620-2684
TLKM: 10,000-10,400. Its ADRs in NY rose 2.2% to $44.30, or equal with
IDR10,150. I must say now BUY at any level. KPPU investigation on text message
fix pricing won't much hurt the industry.
ISAT: 8,300-8,600. There has been a shifting of support from IDR8,500 to
IDR8,250, which may become a level of accumulation if the stock is hit by
selling pressure. It is now trading with a very moderate to low volume, which
could reflect a mode of investment maintenance. Its ADRs in NY dropped 2.6% to
$45.50, or equal with IDR8,544.
PGAS: 14,550-15,600. PGAS is reported to file a lawsuit against local media
which wrongly translated "buckle" to "leakage"....funny and only happens here
in Indonesia. On chart basis, PGAS has potential to rebound and retest the
resistance level of IDR15,300.
ANTM: 4,000-4,700. It has been moving as expected. LME nickel needs to move
above the $30,000 a metric ton level in order to improve the market's immediate
tone. But, there is "heavy resistance" in this area from several key mid-term
moving averages, which will look to cap any advances toward this region. LME
nickel yesterday traded at $25,825/ton, or down 2.5% from Monday's high. On
technical point of view, Antam may still suffer from price correction, but
would give good opportunity to buy if it falls below IDR4,000.
BMRI: 3,250-3,450. Bank Mandiri may report a very strong 2007 earnings due to
low loan loss provisions stemming from better bad debt management. It is now
only trading at a PBV of 2.4 times, compared with 3 times of the industrial
average. I still go with BUY on weakness
ASII: 24,500-29,000. It may be trading wide, with rebound may take place if it
fails to break below 25,300-strong support. BUY at the lower end of the range.
ITMG: 16,500-22,000. Some are still desperate to jack up share price to
IDR22,000, which could be successful given assets cornering during the IPO.
But, fishing big retailers to get in the ride would cause in negative impact
and may result in short trade practices.
SPECIAL MENTION:
BUMI: 5,600-6,000. (AGAIN) It may be stuck within this band for a while. Any
correction should be considered a gift given company's future outlook. Coal
sales are expected to rise to 100 million metric tons by 2010 from 52 million
tons at present, compared with 20 million tons by 2009 of Indo Tambangraya
Megah. And BUMI plans to buy Australia's Heralds could show that the company
has long term vision. It is a hostile take over and no one at Heralds would be
able to stop it. BUY on weakness
MONITORING:
TRUB: 1,400-1,620 TBLA: 590-660
PTBA: 11,400-11,900 TINS: 25,400-29,000
UNSP: 2,000-2,200 SULI: 3,200-4,200
BRPT: 2,775-2,900
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