RE: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM : Executive Summary; below Rp8000 is safe level!
Where is it going ? After last week analysis today it ends up at 5400. Bought to test the water few lots.Forecas Westpac harga nikel thn depan bisa anjlog krn perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086sid=au5qz3SPw2UoSementara Financial Times cerita persediaan nikel dihitung dalam jam skrg ini bukan lagi day inventory. Volatilitas masih tetap tinggi walau LME sudah intervensi.http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060830/bs_ft/fto083020061259185608th Stay in the know. Pulse on the new Yahoo.com. Check it out. __._,_.___ SPONSORED LINKS Small business finance Business finance online Business finance training Business finance course Business finance schools YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. __,_._,___
Re: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM : Executive Summary; below Rp8000 is safe level!, berhitung
Q106 - 131.034.151.000 EPS q1 68,7, ann 274 H106 - 515.190.211.000EPS h1 270.1 ann 540. Dengan mengurangkan result H1 dengan Q1, didapatkan EPS q2 = 270.1-68.7= 201.4 Melihat harga nickel soar pada bulan Juli, Agustus dan perkiraan harga bulan September, ane yakin kinerja q3 dapat dipertahankan sedikitnya seperti q2. Sehingga, EPS YTD Q3 ane prediksi = 68.7+201.4+201.4=471.5 Jadi Annualized EPS Q3minimnya = 471.5*4/3 = 628.6 Untuk q4 agak susah prediksinya, 3 bulan ke depan ane ga tau apa yang akan terjadi (only GOD knows). Konservatif sekali kinerja Q4 EPSnya sama dgn Q1, maka EPS annualized = 540 Kalo optimis kinerja Q3 melebihi Q2, Q4 lebih bagus dari Q1, EPS sekitar 700-800 - Original Message - From: EKA SUWANDANA To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Friday, August 25, 2006 1:05 PM Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM : Executive Summary; below Rp8000 is safe level! Minimum Fair Value is Rp 8000/share, I have that when the nickel price was 8-9 USD/lb (FENI III not counted). I also had Rp 7000-8000/share as fair value when the nickel price still was 6,7 USD/lb (FENI III is counted). So below Rp 8000,-, it is, i can say , a safe lavel.Now the nickel price, for 3 month future is between 13,1-13,5 USD/lb, the spot however is around 15 USD/lb. Please read the news about nickel below from REUTERS: Nickel near high on stocks, but growth worries Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:46 PM GMT By Nick Trevethan LONDON (Reuters) - Nickel hovered near a record $29,950 a tonne on Thursday as available stocks held at about half a day of global consumption, but slowing economic growth may dampen the longer term outlook for metals. "Nickel is tight, but stocks are holding. Medium term, there is potential for more on the upside in copper, nickel and zinc," BaseMetals.com analyst William Adams said. But the risk of slowing economic growth, particularly in the United States, meant the longer-term outlook was less bright. "We will see firm demand from Asia, but I am concerned about a slowdown in the United States," Adams said. "The impact of higher rates and a weaker housing market may take time to feed into metals, but if the U.S. consumer slows there will be a knock-on effect for China and other Asian manufacturers." New orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell by 2.4 percent in July, which was much more than expected, as civilian aircraft and car orders tumbled, a government report showed. On Wednesday the National Association of Realtors reported U.S. July existing homes sales fell to their lowest since January 2004. "The housing market doesn't seem to be cooling; it actually seems to be getting frigid," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Co. in New York. Nickel gained $975 or 3.4 percent to $29,675/29,700 at midday, but volumes were limited at 155 lots as investors steered clear of a market crippled by low stocks. LME-monitored warehouse stocks fell 240 tonnes to 6,426 tonnes, of which only 1,716 were available to the market to support global consumption of 3,600 tonnes a day. "I am amazed that the price is this high, but the supply situation probably justifies it," a dealer said. He added that the high prices might hurt the market in the longer term as nickel consumers, mostly stainless steel mills, looked for alternatives. Copper was up $50 at $7,660 and aluminium rose $14 to $2,497. Traders said investors would track events at BHP Billiton's giant Escondida copper mine in Chile, where a 2-1/2-week strike has cut production by half at the operation, which produces 8 percent of the world's copper. "This isn't a bad thing for BHP Billiton. They have a lot of other producing mines and their shares are going up on the back of stronger copper prices," the dealer said. "A settlement will have a kneejerk reaction and prices will drop, but speculators may use a sell-off to pick up a few bargains as later this year there are more pay talks that cover about 20 percent of the world's production," he said. Luis Troncoso, president of the 2,052-member union at Escondida, said: "We are back at step one. At this time there are no talks with the company...because they said they've given all they are going to give, so the dialogue was shut off immediately." On Wednesday BHP Billiton announced a record $10.45 billion profit for fiscal 2006. The company's shares were little changed at about 1007 pence. Chip Goodyear, chief executive of BHP Billiton Ltd./Plc., the world's top miner, said late on Wednesday that demand for goods such as washing machines, air conditioners and cars in developing nations like China was unlikely to let up, driving up demand for metals. Zinc was at $3,395/3,41
RE: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM : Executive Summary; below Rp8000 is safe level!
Minimum Fair Value is Rp 8000/share, I have that when the nickel price was 8-9 USD/lb (FENI III not counted). I also had Rp 7000-8000/share as fair value when the nickel price still was 6,7 USD/lb (FENI III is counted).So below Rp 8000,-, it is, i can say , a safe lavel.Now the nickel price, for 3 month future is between 13,1-13,5 USD/lb, the spot however is around 15 USD/lb. Please read the news about nickel below from REUTERS:Nickel near high on stocks, but growth worries Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:46 PM GMT By Nick Trevethan LONDON (Reuters) - Nickel hovered near a record $29,950 a tonne on Thursday as available stocks held at about half a day of global consumption, but slowing economic growth may dampen the longer term outlook for metals. "Nickel is tight, but stocks are holding. Medium term, there is potential for more on the upside in copper, nickel and zinc," BaseMetals.com analyst William Adams said. But the risk of slowing economic growth, particularly in the United States, meant the longer-term outlook was less bright. "We will see firm demand from Asia, but I am concerned about a slowdown in the United States," Adams said. "The impact of higher rates and a weaker housing market may take time to feed into metals, but if the U.S. consumer slows there will be a knock-on effect for China and other Asian manufacturers." New orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell by 2.4 percent in July, which was much more than expected, as civilian aircraft and car orders tumbled, a government report showed. On Wednesday the National Association of Realtors reported U.S. July existing homes sales fell to their lowest since January 2004. "The housing market doesn't seem to be cooling; it actually seems to be getting frigid," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Co. in New York. Nickel gained $975 or 3.4 percent to $29,675/29,700 at midday, but volumes were limited at 155 lots as investors steered clear of a market crippled by low stocks. LME-monitored warehouse stocks fell 240 tonnes to 6,426 tonnes, of which only 1,716 were available to the market to support global consumption of 3,600 tonnes a day. "I am amazed that the price is this high, but the supply situation probably justifies it," a dealer said. He added that the high prices might hurt the market in the longer term as nickel consumers, mostly stainless steel mills, looked for alternatives. Copper was up $50 at $7,660 and aluminium rose $14 to $2,497. Traders said investors would track events at BHP Billiton's giant Escondida copper mine in Chile, where a 2-1/2-week strike has cut production by half at the operation, which produces 8 percent of the world's copper. "This isn't a bad thing for BHP Billiton. They have a lot of other producing mines and their shares are going up on the back of stronger copper prices," the dealer said. "A settlement will have a kneejerk reaction and prices will drop, but speculators may use a sell-off to pick up a few bargains as later this year there are more pay talks that cover about 20 percent of the world's production," he said. Luis Troncoso, president of the 2,052-member union at Escondida, said: "We are back at step one. At this time there are no talks with the company...because they said they've given all they are going to give, so the dialogue was shut off immediately." On Wednesday BHP Billiton announced a record $10.45 billion profit for fiscal 2006. The company's shares were little changed at about 1007 pence. Chip Goodyear, chief executive of BHP Billiton Ltd./Plc., the world's top miner, said late on Wednesday that demand for goods such as washing machines, air conditioners and cars in developing nations like China was unlikely to let up, driving up demand for metals. Zinc was at $3,395/3,415, up $51. Zinifex Ltd., the world's second-largest zinc producer, on Thursday forecast a strong year ahead on further growth in metals prices as global demand for industrial raw materials, led by China, outran supply.© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved. Aria Bela Nusa [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: At the moment, ANTM couldnt reach round number (i.e.6,000) as strong resistence so its pulling-back right now Anyhow, I still believe that it wants to trying to breaking-up again that round number coming soon - continously reflecting such sound fundamental, higher metal prices then -Original Message-From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-[EMAIL PROTECTED]ps.com] On Behalf Of Frederick SchubertSent: Thursday, August 24, 2006 12:06 PMTo: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comSubject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] ANTM : Executive Summary; fundamental fair value : USD 1++/share i know exactly the different of SGD and USD.my comment was aimedto jokingly observe the reference of the chart which combinestrade volume and preferences ofinvestors enthusiasm...anyway, there was an old story of ANTM regarding its failure to convinceregulatory
