Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ for investor (Banking sector)

2008-09-27 Terurut Topik Alex U 
Maybe you should've been a bit more specific in your question but otherwise you 
are right.
This is a very simple model and it's not going to pretend it can predict x% 
gain. 
 
This model is intended to be quickly used relative to the other banks (better 
if forward PE can be estimated and used), i.e. you can quickly understand each 
of the relative position. With respect to the model, sure BBCA is the leader 
now and it might not be true anymore by the end of the year. But at the moment 
it is well ahead of the pack and if we are happy with the concept of systematic 
and sectoral risks, then if the whole banking sector goes down, BBCA might 
fare better relative to others. So one potential outcome is that the PEs of all 
banks will be lower than it is today but it is still possible that, BBCA's PE 
will remain higher than the rest of the banks. If the discount still doesn't 
give you the premium you want, perhaps you shouldn't buy it. There have 
been many other research done in relation to PE and PBV but let's not go there.
 
Just like with any other models, it only works with certain assumptions and 
situation.
There are aspects that it can explain and others that can't.
 
NOTE: Just to be safe - these are just financial model discussion, not an 
investment recommendation.

--- On Sat, 9/27/08, jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

From: jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ for investor (Banking sector)
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Date: Saturday, September 27, 2008, 9:36 PM






The objective of this quiz, is NOT to find the BEST bank or the 
BEST performance bank, BUT to find WHICH bank will give the best
GAIN in a year

The 'DOG' bank might give better gain compared to 
the 'ALREADY RISING' bank or may be worse.

BBCA's PER is already 16, if you want 50% gain in a year, then
BBCA's PER should be 24. Do you think BBCA can attain PER=24 
considering the current economic situation ?.

--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Alex U  
wrote:
>
> Hope it's not too late to participate :)
>  
> This is called PE Multiples valuation.
> The primary choice is the "Rising Star" BBCA because of high PE and 
high PBV (therefore high ROE as well).
>  
> Applying this approach further, it puts BMRI in the "Dog" category.
>  
> Cheers
> 
> --- On Sat, 9/27/08, jsx_consultant  wrote:
> 
> From: jsx_consultant 
> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] QUIZ for investor (Banking sector)
> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
> Date: Saturday, September 27, 2008, 9:54 AM
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ROE ranking:
> - BBRI, BBCA, BDMN, BMI: 29, 23, 22, 18%
> 
> PBV ranking:
> - BMRI, BDMN, BBRI, BBCA : 1,9 2,5 3,4 3,8
> 
> PER ranking:
> - BMRI, BDMN, BBRI, BBCA : 10, 11, 11, 16
> 
> Pertanyaan:
> - Bank mana yg akan dibeli dan apa alasannya ?.
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ for investor (Banking sector)

2008-09-27 Terurut Topik rudd haas 
Sebenarnya ada satu bank yang performance bagus dan valusi murah 
 yaitu BTPN 
 
ROE 29%
PER 4.5
BV : 1.1
 
namun sayang , buat trading kurang menarik karena kurang likuid
banyak saham bagus tapi ga likuid


--- On Sat, 9/27/08, bw_lauw <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

From: bw_lauw <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ for investor (Banking sector)
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Date: Saturday, September 27, 2008, 2:12 PM






*mbah,sy sependapat dg p Halim,hrg shm banking kan ga terpangkas 
banyak dr highestnya,sy pribadi milih sektor cpo sj,krn klo US$ lemah 
komoditi naik termsk cpo,klo US$ menguat artinya ekonomi USA membaik
berimbas positif jg ke indo,daya beli meningkat,minyak goreng pun bs 
naik hrgnya,seingat sy dl sebelum minyak bumi mahal cpo sdh pernah 
tinggi harganya,it' s just my opinion*

--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "jsx_consultant"  wrote:
>
> Ha ha ha... 
> 
> Pak Halim engga milih satu bank PUN
> 
> Biarpun jawaban pak Halim belum tentu bener karena mungkin
> akan disanggah jawaban yg lain, tapi pak Halim embah kasih
> punten A karena originalitas dan kwalitas jawaban ... hehehe...
> 
> ...
> Dosen S2 gadungan.
> 
> 
> --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "Halim Mintareja" 
>  wrote:
> >
> > buat trading sih ok
> > 
> > cuman sebaiknya sektor banking tidak untuk investasi.
> > 
> > risk vs reward gak sebanding. Limited gain (10-20%)...risk 
(30-60%)
> > 
> > Banking indo saya lihat masih kemahalan dari sisi valuasi.
> > Lihat aja PBV sekitar 2 PER paling kecil 10. (padahal belum
> > memperhitungkan penyusutan NIM)
> > 
> > dengan kondisi IDR-10 year bond sekitar 12-13.5%..Banking tidak 
> layak
> > dihargai di PE lebih besar dari 10.. range 7-9 sih paling wajar
> > 
> > disclaimer ya
> > 2008/9/27 jsx_consultant 
> > 
> > > ROE ranking:
> > > - BBRI, BBCA, BDMN, BMI: 29, 23, 22, 18%
> > >
> > > PBV ranking:
> > > - BMRI, BDMN, BBRI, BBCA : 1,9 2,5 3,4 3,8
> > >
> > > PER ranking:
> > > - BMRI, BDMN, BBRI, BBCA : 10, 11, 11, 16
> > >
> > > Pertanyaan:
> > > - Bank mana yg akan dibeli dan apa alasannya ?.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >  - - --
> > >
> > > + +
> > > + + + + +
> > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus
> > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
> > > + + + + +
> > > + +Yahoo! Groups Links
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ for investor (Banking sector)

2008-09-26 Terurut Topik dwongso 
Pak Halim, kemarin BII turun 30an persen knp ya?
-Original Message-
From: "Halim Mintareja" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

Date: Sat, 27 Sep 2008 12:21:39 
To: 
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ for investor (Banking sector)


Kurang lebih begitulah.

Saya sih mau cari amannya saja.
Daripada cari saham banking yang rata-rata sudah fully valued. Mending cari
sektor lain yang masih under valued.

Anyway...kalau saya disuruh masuk perbankan. Sayang mungkin pilih BBNI.

BBNI sudah dihajar gila-gilaan dan dipaksa turun baik dari sisi FA maupun
TA.

boleh tuh... buat judi dikit-dikit. Daripada yang lain.

2008/9/27 jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

> Pak Halim,
>
> PER BBCA = 16 bisa juga diartikan secara kasar bahwa secara RATA
> RATA diperkirakan EPS GROWTH BCA akan tummbuh 16% pertahun selama
> say 10 thn kedepan.
>
> Jadi PE wajar = 100% / 10 year bond = 7-9, hanya diperuntukan
> untuk bank yg growthnya rata2 kedepan sekitar 7-9%
>
> Jadi suatu bank bisa saja punya PER = 30, dengan pemikiran
> bank tersebut akan punya EPS Growth rata2 sebesar 30% setahun
> selama say 10thn berturut2.
>
> Jadi PER WAJAR sektor bnak = Perkiraan RATA2 Pertumbuhan Laba bank2
> di Indonesia selama 10 thn.
>
> Kira kira Business bank selama 5 thn kedepan BAGAIMANA ?.
>
>
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ for investor (Banking sector)

2008-09-26 Terurut Topik Christian Wijaya 

Kalau BBKP gimana Pak?
PBVnya dibawah 1 kelihatannya?

Halim Mintareja wrote:

Kurang lebih begitulah.

Saya sih mau cari amannya saja.
Daripada cari saham banking yang rata-rata sudah fully valued. Mending 
cari sektor lain yang masih under valued.


Anyway...kalau saya disuruh masuk perbankan. Sayang mungkin pilih BBNI.

BBNI sudah dihajar gila-gilaan dan dipaksa turun baik dari sisi FA 
maupun TA.


boleh tuh... buat judi dikit-dikit. Daripada yang lain.

2008/9/27 jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
>


Pak Halim,

PER BBCA = 16 bisa juga diartikan secara kasar bahwa secara RATA
RATA diperkirakan EPS GROWTH BCA akan tummbuh 16% pertahun selama
say 10 thn kedepan.

Jadi PE wajar = 100% / 10 year bond = 7-9, hanya diperuntukan
untuk bank yg growthnya rata2 kedepan sekitar 7-9%

Jadi suatu bank bisa saja punya PER = 30, dengan pemikiran
bank tersebut akan punya EPS Growth rata2 sebesar 30% setahun
selama say 10thn berturut2.

Jadi PER WAJAR sektor bnak = Perkiraan RATA2 Pertumbuhan Laba bank2
di Indonesia selama 10 thn.

Kira kira Business bank selama 5 thn kedepan BAGAIMANA ?.

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ for investor (Banking sector)

2008-09-26 Terurut Topik Halim Mintareja 
Kurang lebih begitulah.

Saya sih mau cari amannya saja.
Daripada cari saham banking yang rata-rata sudah fully valued. Mending cari
sektor lain yang masih under valued.

Anyway...kalau saya disuruh masuk perbankan. Sayang mungkin pilih BBNI.

BBNI sudah dihajar gila-gilaan dan dipaksa turun baik dari sisi FA maupun
TA.

boleh tuh... buat judi dikit-dikit. Daripada yang lain.

2008/9/27 jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

> Pak Halim,
>
> PER BBCA = 16 bisa juga diartikan secara kasar bahwa secara RATA
> RATA diperkirakan EPS GROWTH BCA akan tummbuh 16% pertahun selama
> say 10 thn kedepan.
>
> Jadi PE wajar = 100% / 10 year bond = 7-9, hanya diperuntukan
> untuk bank yg growthnya rata2 kedepan sekitar 7-9%
>
> Jadi suatu bank bisa saja punya PER = 30, dengan pemikiran
> bank tersebut akan punya EPS Growth rata2 sebesar 30% setahun
> selama say 10thn berturut2.
>
> Jadi PER WAJAR sektor bnak = Perkiraan RATA2 Pertumbuhan Laba bank2
> di Indonesia selama 10 thn.
>
> Kira kira Business bank selama 5 thn kedepan BAGAIMANA ?.
>
>
>

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ..

2006-05-14 Terurut Topik Bettina Tan 



BARU DIBILANG BEGITU AJA NGACIR.. TERNYATA BEGITU YAH YU.. HEHE.. 
On 5/15/06, Bettina Tan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

YU NGUMPULIN BLTA BUAT LISTING DI SG BLN DPN..

On 5/15/06, Odink <[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote: 


hehee.. ternyata yg bener BMRI nyalip BLTA.. nyalip ke selatan Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~--> 
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Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ..

2006-05-14 Terurut Topik Bettina Tan 



YU NGUMPULIN BLTA BUAT LISTING DI SG BLN DPN..
On 5/15/06, Odink <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
hehee.. ternyata yg bener BMRI nyalip BLTA.. nyalip ke selatan Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-->
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Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ..

2006-05-14 Terurut Topik Odink 
hehee.. ternyata yg bener BMRI nyalip BLTA.. nyalip ke selatan


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Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: QUIZ…..

2006-05-10 Terurut Topik Marjan Syah 



Indeks ngetest resistance di 1550.. kira2 kuat gak ya.. Wah pak oentoeng untung gede ya hari ini.. keh keh keh..
On 5/11/06, oentoeng_q <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
CTRA..BLTA...OENTOENG DKK sedang BERAKSI..--- In 
obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "oentoeng_q" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>wrote:>> Daripada "bengong" siapa yang bisa menjawab QUIZ ini?> Siapa yang duluan mencapai TARGET?> 1.CTRA MENYALIP CTRS?
> 2.BLTA MENYALIP BMRI?> Kalau bisa pake hari ama jam sekalian….> Hehehe……….> Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-->Protect your PC from spy ware with award winning anti spy technology. It's free.
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