[PEN-L:7947] FW: BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 20, 1996 RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.1 percent in November. The decrease was attributable to dips in both petroleum and nonpetroleum prices. The U.S. Export Price Index, paced by the continued decrease in agricultural prices, fell 0.5 percent in November BLS Commissioner Abraham challenges a key finding of the Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index -- the quantity of upward bias in the index caused by the failure to adequately adjust for quality improvements. Abraham says "hard empirical evidence regarding the magnitude of the biases from these sources is extremely limited." The commission's report, released Dec. 4, does not give much guidance how to improve the procedures for adjusting for quality changes, Abraham says (Daily Labor Report, pages 1,AA-1,E-6). __"Not so fast, fellas. That was the message delivered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to the White House, the Federal Reserve, the Congress and a distinguished panel of economists, all of whom have said that the agency has overstated the rate of inflation. The downward revision they imagine could save the government billions of dollars in cost of living raises for retirees." The BLS's top official told a packed news conference she remains unconvinced that the closely watched CPI overstates the inflation rate by 1.1 percentage points each year Abraham said many of the changes urged by the Boskin Commission would require her agency to make subjective judgments about improvements in the quality of products that go well beyond what a government statistical agency should do. And some of the commission's recommendations to take better account of small changes in consumer spending patterns actually might result in a higher rather than a lower CPI, she warned. Abraham emphasized that she was not dismissing or criticizing the work done by the commission But at the same time, she made it clear that she would resist attempts to "politicize" the statistical agency by forcing it to adjust its methods to solve the balanced budget impasse (Washington Post, page A21). __In the first formal response to calls for a reduction in the index that measures inflation, the head of the agency that compiles the statistics said today that no significant remedies could be adopted before 1999. "There is not a lot, in the short term at least, for us to be doing," Abraham said at a briefing Although a few refinements of the CPI are under way, her statement means that, if the index is to be changed to produce significant savings, Congress rather than the government will have to do the job (New York Times, page A25). __The head of BLS criticized a recent proposal to change the CPI, arguing that the proposal uses questionable criteria to show the index overstates inflation. Abraham took aim at a high-profile report saying the report relies too heavily on subjective data, while her bureau continues to use more objective criteria. She added that the bureau already regularly updates the way it measures the CPI in order to reflect changes in the economy and consumer spending habits (Wall Street Journal, page A2). __Data from the Employment and Training Administration shows new claims rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 351,000 during the week ended Dec. 14. It was the highest level of initial claims since July (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __Claims for jobless benefits edged up slightly last week to the highest level since July (Washington Post, page G2). __New applications for unemployment insurance in the U.S. rose to their highest level in five months last week, tempering financial market fears that employment is growing rapidly and sending stocks and bonds soaring (Wall Street Journal, page A2).
[PEN-L:7951] FW: Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, DECEMBER 23, 1996: President Clinton selects Alexis M. Herman, White House director of public liaison and a former social worker, as his choce for Secretary of Labor in the Administration's second term. The Herman nomination follows intense infighting among key Democratic constituents, pitting organized labor, civil rights groups and Hispanic groups against one anotherm, as they lobbied on behalf of their own candidates (Daily Labor Report, page AA1; The Washington Post, December 21, page 1). BLS reports import prices fell 0.1 percent in November, with both petroleum and nonpetroleum prices contributing to the fall (Daily Labor Report, page D-13; The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The head of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration resigns to take a position under the governor-elect of Washington state, leaving the Clinton Administration to select a new OSHA administrator who can be confirmed by the GOP-held Senate (Daily Labor Report, page A-1). Michael M. Phillips, writing in "The Outlook" feature of The Wall Street Journal (page 1) says the rich really are getting richer and the poor poorer in this country. He contends that a widening wage gap alone doesn't prove that -- a more interesting issue is whether workers' lifetime earnings are growing more unequal as well. To answer that question, economists look at class mobility. Unfortunately, economists find that, like annual wages, lifetime wages may be becoming more unequal. Rapid technological change is bringing increasing rewards to skill and education, and trade and immigration may also play a part. Unless mobility rises along with wage inequality, workers on average can expect their lifetime earnings to become more unequal. Lawrence F. Katz, Harvard economist, says the middle class did hold its own. The average annual income of the middle fifth of American families, adjusted for inflation, increased slightly in the 20 years between 1973 and 1994. But, Katz adds, People who tend to be in the upper brackets spend 80 percent of their lives there, while those in the bottom spend 80 percent of their lives at the bottom. Initial jobless claims are predicted to be 346,000 for the week to December 21, according to the technical data consensus forecast published in The Wall Street Journal's "Tracking the Economy" feature (page A4). The figure, to be announced Friday, is in contrast to the previous actual figure of 351,000. A survey of 17 top graduate business schools found consulting firms attracted 30 percent of the Class of 1996. Growth in base salary is shown in a page B1 USA Today graph, with the 1994 annual pay at $71,000, the 1995 pay at $77,000, and the 1996 pay at $82,000.
[PEN-L:7956] South Korean Police Accused Of Crimes Against Women
Early December seven female south Korean university students filed a complaint against the police for sexual molestation. The students held a press conference at a female rights organization office in Chung-gu, Seoul. They declared that it was their hope that by daring to go public it would assist other women who are still in jail or those who may be arrested in the future. They said that police committed the offenses during and after the violent assault on the student reunification festival last August. The fascist south Korean puppet government had declared illegal the students' annual August festival, which raises the demand for reunification of the north and south, the ouster of U.S. troops and the repeal of the fascist "National Security Law." Over seven thousand students were arrested and thousands injured by the police and military forces that were unleashed against them. Many of the protesters were young women and there were concerns expressed at the time for their safety while in custody. Apparently those concerns were well founded according to the young women. In the complaint filed with the Seoul District Prosecutor's Office, the students accuse Park Il-yong, the head of the National Police Agency, and other officers in charge of the raids with sexual misconduct including verbal threats and various acts of sexual violence. They also charge in the complaint that the head of the police and other ranking police officers condoned the sexual molestation committed by the attacking police and jailors. Soon after the massive arrests, stories began to leak out of the prisons of sexual misconduct on the part of the police. The complaints were so pronounced, especially from parents, that they were repeated in the south Korean Parliament by female opposition members, who said that by the first week of September as many as 80 cases of sexual violence had already been reported to human rights groups. The charges against the National Police Agency were repeated again in November, replete with detailed descriptions. The response of the Kim Young-sam puppet government was to accuse the victims of making "lewd statements in public" and of being "pro-North." The government stepped up police raids on campuses, arresting and persecuting all students who dare to participate in politics. Hundreds of students have now been sentenced to prison terms ranging from one-and-a-half years to three years in jail. No member of the police has been accused of any crime. Shawgi Tell University at Buffalo Graduate School of Education [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[PEN-L:7953] history of CPI conflict
why did Robert J. Gordon sign on to the cause of revising the CPI? (1) he's been in favor of revising it for _years_. Just look at old editions of his intermediate MACROECONOMICS book! He's been advocating the replacement of the CPI by the implicit Consumer Expenditure deflator of the NIPA. BTW, why has the idea of such a replacement disappeared? (2) he's a right-wing new Keynesian (a.k.a. monetarist). By strange coincidence, I got to read the drafts of several chapters of an intro text he was writing. He went on on about how wonderful the "longest peacetime prosperity" of the Reagan years was. in pen-l solidarity, Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Econ. Dept., Loyola Marymount Univ. 7900 Loyola Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90045-8410 USA 310/338-2948 (daytime, during workweek); FAX: 310/338-1950 "It takes a busload of faith to get by." -- Lou Reed.
[PEN-L:7952] Re: free breakfast at ASSA mtgs
Mark, I would like to talk with you about writing an article for DS sometime. Are you interested? You can reply by Email or phone, 617- 628-8411. Marc Breslow, Dollars and Sense (out of town 12/26-1/6/97).
[PEN-L:7954] Re: Brash self-promotion!
Trond writes: My point is that while mainsteram economists in most countries have to explain to the public that the gvt. "cannot" run a deficit, they in Norway have the much more tricky task to explain that the gvt. HAS TO run an extremely large SURPLUS. And this in a situation where gvt. net financial assets are around 280 billion NOK already. The projected 1996 surplus is 55 billion NOK, and will be even higher in 1997. COMMENT: Gee, our governments always decide to play Santa Claus when this happens---but only if there is an imminent election! Xmas Cheers, Ken Hanly
[PEN-L:7949] history of cpi fight
Does anybody have a good feel for the history of the cpi struggle? I remember during the early Reagan years, the administration was arguing that housing prices were overestimated because the price of rents was not increasing as fast as the price of houses. Was that the first salvo? Hasn't Heritage been cooking this project ever since? Why did Robert Gordon sign on? I know he has been pushing the idea that the computer price index was overstated. Why hasn't Doug Henwood published this scoop? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 916-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[PEN-L:7948] free breakfast at ASSA mtgs
There may be no free lunch for economists, but there is a free breakfast at the ASSA meetings. Okay, so it's kinda early, but you get to hear Dean Baker blab about the CPI. Actually it's a pretty interesting story, despite the hour and the technicalities of double counting, etc. Dean has been in the thick of the battle to beat back the Boskin Commission's attempt to force a revision of the CPI, and the tide is finally turning our way. Here's the announcement: The AFL-CIO will be having a breakfast at the ASSA meetings: Sunday, January 5 7 a.m.- 8 a.m. Fairmont Hotel, Grand Ballroom, New Orleans. Dean Baker of the Economic Policy Institute will speak on the topic of "Does the CPI Really Overstate Inflation?" Complimentary continental breakfast will be served. - Name: Mark Weisbrot E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Preamble Center for Public Policy 1737 21st Street NW Washington DC 20009 (202) 265-3263 (offc) (202) 333-6141 (home) fax: (202)265-3647
[PEN-L:7945] Re: Brash self-promotion!
Ken Hanly says to me Recently Trond Andresen wrote: Among several things, we discuss the extreme gvt. surplus in the current Norwegian economy, and how the economics profession in Norway now is at work to explain that this money may not be used for the public good in Norway, but must be invested financially overseas; a "Kuwait syndrome". Comment: I understood -at least before the war with Iraq--Kuwait had a social safety net that would be the envy of most countries around the world. For example they had a first rate health care system available to all CITIZENS. However, most residents of Kuwait were not citizens e.g. Iraqi and Palenstinian guest workers; and the whole system depends upon the whims of a paternalistic and rich absolute ruler, but I would think that Kuwait is not the best example of overseas investment AT THE EXPENSE OF THE WELFARE STATE. Also, much of the surplus is squandered in lavish lifestyles as part of the global jet-set rather than in investment. No disagreement with this. My point is that while mainsteram economists in most countries have to explain to the public that the gvt. "cannot" run a deficit, they in Norway have the much more tricky task to explain that the gvt. HAS TO run an extremely large SURPLUS. And this in a situation where gvt. net financial assets are around 280 billion NOK already. The projected 1996 surplus is 55 billion NOK, and will be even higher in 1997. Norway's population is 4.3 mill., and 1 NOK = 6.5 USD Trond Andresen
[PEN-L:7946] FW: Daily Report
BLS DAILY LABOR REPORT, THURSDAY, DECEMBER 19, 1996: Today's News Release: "BLS Reports on the Amount of Formal and Informal Training Received by Employees" says that employees who work in establishments with 50 or more workers received an average of 44.5 hours of training in the period May-October 1995, according to a survey of employees conducted by BLS. Of these training hours, 70 percent or 31.1 hours were spent receiving informal training, while 13.4 hours were in formal training. The survey also found that in May-October 1995 period, an estimated $647 per employee was spent on wage and salary costs of training, with about 65 percent of the amount spent on informal training. The Boskin report on the CPI has come under considerable discussion, as well as various other ideas concerning the index: __Writing in The Washington Post (page E1) John M. Berry reports that "The size of the overstatement 'is a gross exaggeration,' said economist Barry Bosworth of the Brookings Institution. "Their measure of the upward bias is biased." On the article's jump page (E10) Berry says Commissioner Abraham is expected to say that a few of the commission's recommendations could be implemented, at least in part, by BLS. But she also will stress that there is no way to deal with many of the product quality or variety issues raised by the Boskin report, because they involve subjective judgments about value and cannot be quantified. __The New York York Times (December 18, page D1) discusses the problems of balancing quantity, quality and inflation and points out that by failing to account for some improvements in the quality of goods and services, the economists (who wrote the Boskin report) contend that the CPI has overstated the growth in the cost of living by 1.1 percentage points. Listed are some of the key components that the commission says should be improved, with a brief explanation of what should be done. __The Washington Times carried a lengthy commentary on the CPI December 16, and said that the Congressional Budget Office estimates that knocking 1 percent off the CPI would reduce the budget deficit over the next 5 years by approximately $134 billion, and that the reforms proposed by the commission may address shortcomings in the present formula, but they don't eliminate the most fundamental flaw. Despite arguments from supporters of the North American Free Trade Agreement that the pact would bring big employment gains to the United States and warnings from opponents that it would cost hundreds of thousands of jobs, the accord's net impact so far has been slight, according to a study by researchers at the University of California at Los Angeles, to be released today. Using a new model of how exports and imports influence jobs in various product categories and regions, the study estimated that the net job grain to the United States since the agreement took effect at the beginning of 1984 has been just 2,900 jobs. The net figure, however, masked a much greater level of both job losses and gains among different companies, increased imports to the United States killed an estimated 28,168 jobs the last 3 years, the study said, while increased exports supported creation of 31,156 jobs. Data compiled by BNA for the first 50 weeks of 1996 show that the median first-year increase in newly negotiated collective bargaining agreements in all industries is 3 percent an hour. In manufacturing agreements, the year-to-date median wage increase is also 3 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). A new model of education, training, and employment services is needed to prepare workers for the workforce of the future, according to a report by the Hudson Institute to be released in the spring. The report is a sequel to the Institute's landmark study "Workforce 2000", published in 1987, which predicted widespread labor and skill shortages and became the seminal document on the subject of the rapidly changing workplace. BLS did not agree entirely with the Hudson study (Daily Labor Report, page A-11).
[PEN-L:7950] Re: history of cpi fight
On 23 Dec 96 at 9:01, Michael Perelman wrote: Does anybody have a good feel for the history of the cpi struggle? I remember during the early Reagan years, the administration was arguing that housing prices were overestimated because the price of rents was not increasing as fast as the price of houses. An economist named John Weicher did some work in the early 1980's regarding housing and the CPI. He had been at the American Enterprise Institute. There may have been others but I wouldn't know since I didn't follow the issue closely. The reason I took note of Weicher's work, however, is that his revised CPI indicated that poverty fell during the 1970's to a much greater extent than implied by the official measure. At the time, the Charles Murray book Losing Ground had set off the welfare debate and Weicher's result was evidence AGAINST the Murray thesis, since the fall in poverty tracked well with the increase in means-tested transfers. Weicher wrote a little paper to that effect, "Mismeasuring Poverty and Progress." He's actually a pretty moderate Republican, especially by contemporary standards. He did serve in HUD at some point during Reagan/Bush, and has also been connected with the Hudson Institute and Indiana Univ. I have no idea if he was right about housing, but in the early 1980's context Social Security did not loom as large as welfare. Reagan's people at OMB did make a foray to cut the disability insurance part of Social Security and got smoked. Reagan didn't go near OASDI or Medicare after that, if memory serves, and actually signed off on an expansion of Medicare which some right-wing old-folks organizations caused to be repealed within months. Gee I'm old. I'd better go and lie down for a while. Was that the first salvo? Hasn't Heritage been cooking this project ever since? No. Nobody at Heritage is sufficiently skilled to handle issues of this complexity, even with malign intent. You might be thinking of a fellow named Robert Rector who has been making mud pies with the definition of poverty to suggest that people aren't as poor as you think they are. Why did Robert Gordon sign on? I know he has been pushing the idea that the computer price index was overstated. Larry Mishel did work relating to this which caused the BLS to change the way they measured productivity. One needs to be careful in sorting out analytical and political motives. Why hasn't Doug Henwood published this scoop? As I've suggested, this was not one of the innumerable scoops he slept through. It should be kept in mind that historical revisionism arising from changes in measurement can easily have politically diverse policy implications. Dean has shown that if Boskin is right, the following premises follow (I summarize): There is no long-run Social Security problem; tomorrow's workers will much better off; Investment and productivity has been much higher than thought, despite deficits in the 1980's, so the latter cannot be a cause of reduced economic growth; The war on poverty ended in victory: the current poverty rate is really 7.5 percent, not 14, so Federal spending to reduce poverty was a howling success. I'm sure list followers will be able to think of others. As I mentioned in another post, if you redo some leading macro models with a revised CPI, you might be able to disprove major pillars of the current orthodoxy. Hurry up before Paul Krugman beats you to it. The Post ran a piece a few days ago titled "Experts Attack CPI Report" or something like that. Dean wan't mentioned but Barry Bosworth, among others, was prominently quoted rejecting the Boskin finding. To me this was a sign that the Boskin report is dead in the water. Once you have a critical mass of experts behind a position, that opens up the field for political forces to make hay on the issue, which in this case means Gephardt, Bonior, and Teddy K. Dean deserves most of the credit however, since he has been the one deconstructing the Boskin report to the edification of others who might otherwise not pay close attention or be willing to do the analytical muckraking necessary to uncover what's real. Sometimes good stuff happens. MBS === Max B. SawickyEconomic Policy Institute [EMAIL PROTECTED] 1660 L Street, NW 202-775-8810 (voice) Ste. 1200 202-775-0819 (fax)Washington, DC 20036 Opinions above do not necessarily reflect the views of anyone associated with the Economic Policy Institute. ===
