[PEN-L:8870] a conference call
I am a member of IAMOT (International Association for Management of Technology) and I am actively working for the preparation of next year's conference in Orlando (1998 February). I will organize a session on "Technology and development". If you are interested in, you can directly contact with me. The detailed information about the conference is as follows: Hope to hear from you, With my best wishes, == IAMOT 1998 Call for Participation == First Announcement and Call for Papers Seventh International Conference on Management of Technology Management of Technology, Sustainable Development and Eco Efficiency 16 - 20 February 1998 Grosvenor Resort, Orlando, Florida, USA Official Conference of the International Association for Management of Technology Conference Focus The 1998 conference will build on the previous conferences' efforts to tackle some of the major issues facing practitioners and researchers in the field of management of technology. Special attention will however be spent on investigating some of the growing concerns associated with the dual pursuit of economic and ecological efficiency also referred to as "eco-efficiency". Given the worldwide participation of this event which usually draws participants from more than 30 countries, it is felt that it may be particularly timely to challenge our mutual understanding of significant issues in the field especially with respect to sustainable development. Who should attend Don't miss this unequaled opportunity to join the world's leading experts from major international organisations, corporations, educational institutions and government agencies. This high value event is essential for: Presidents and vice-presidents of corporations Engineers in the area of RD, design, production and manufacturing, quality control, marketing and sales. Managers involved in the areas of finance, marketing, economics and public policy. Project and operations managers Educators, both industrial and academic, responsible for technology management education and training, engineering management, industrial administration, management of productivity and technology, business administration RD executives Government officials responsible for science and technology Main Topics Choose to participate in one or more of the following topics: a) Technological Change and Sustainable Development b) Achieving Eco-efficiency c) Science and Technology Policy d) Process and Technological Innovations e) Technological Innovations and Strategic Planning f) Technology Transfer g) Research Development Management h) Technological Entrepreneurship and New Ventures l) Product and Process Life Cycles j) Technological Change and Organizational Structure k) Quality and Productivity Issues l) Technology and Human and Social Issues m) Education and Training Issues on Management of Technology n) Technology and Economic Analysis o) Methodologies on Management of Technology p) General Issues in Management of Technology q) Case Studies Conference Chairmen and Committees Conference Co-chairmen Dr Tarek Khalil Dean University of Miami The Graduate School 1000 Memorial Drive Coral Gables Florida 33124-2220 USA tel: +1 305 284 4154 Fax: 1 305 284 5441 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Dr Louis A Lefebvre Professor Department of Industrial Engineering Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal 2500 chemin de Polytechnique Montreal, Quebec H3T 1J7 Canada tel: +1 514 340 5862 Fax: +1 514 340- 5960 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Dr Robert Mason Professor Case Western Reserve University Weatherhead School of Management 10900 Euclid Avenue Cleveland. Ohio 44106-7235 USA Tel: +1 216 368 6385 Fax: +1 216 368 4776 e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] The venue The Grosvenor Resort, an official hotel of Walt Disney World, is located in the Walt Disney World Village. As an official hotel, The Grosvenor Resort is able to offer guests many onsite Disney benefits such as complimentary transportation to the Magic Kingdom park, Epcot Centre, MGM Studios theme park, Pleasure Island complex and the Disney Village Marketplace. Disney tickets and gifts are on sale at the hotel. In addition to the use of the five championship Walt Disney World golf courses, the hotel has excellent on-site recreational facilities including two heated swimming pools, a hot tub, lighted tennis and handball, basketball, volleyball and fitness center. Also, for those of you who are interested in car racing and in addition to the new attraction of Disney NASCAR , Daytona 500 will take place the week of xx/xx/98 in Daytona Beach (45 Minutes from Orlando). This is the biggest car race in the world, which would have the latest in high performance engines, driven by the best competitors in the world. IAMOT International Association for Management of Technology The International Association for Management of Technology was formed in February 1992 with the participation of
[PEN-L:8869] the MERU {child of NAIRU} revisited
The JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES, Winter 1997, had a useful forum on the "Natural Rate of Unemployment," or what is more scientifically termed the "Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment" (NAIRU). On pen-l, it seems, we reached a consensus to call it the "Macroeconomic Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment" (MERU). Anyway, here's a quick report on the JEP forum, using their term. (A lot talk about the "Natural" rate, but that's silly.) Most of the articles (Staiger et al, Blanchard Katz, Rogerson, and James Galbraith) are very dubious about the whole idea of the NAIRU. Only the articles by Stiglitz and Robert J. Gordon are clearly pro-NAIRU. Staiger et al. find that the estimates of the NAIRU are so imprecise that the concept is basically not useful for policy purposes. Blanchard Katz see substantial _theoretical_ progress concerning the NAIRU but a lot of empirical uncertainty. Rogerson thinks that the "Natural rate" language doesn't really fit a dynamic model of the labor market. Galbraith titles his article "Time to Ditch the NAIRU," so as you might guess, he presents a large number of theoretical and empirical criticisms of the NAIRU. However, his broadside might be read as allowing for the validity of _sophisticated_ readings of the NAIRU theory. But he's definitely against "NAIRUvianism," the standard economist's bias against full employment. Even the pro-NAIRU crowd is suprisingly in favor of promoting low U rates. Stiglitz sees the current NAIRU as much lower than in the past, perhaps at 4.5 or 4.7 percent of the labor force (in the U.S.) (I did this calculation based on the numbers he stated; for some reason he shied away from stating an actual number.) He also sees the possibility that the "hysteresis hypothesis" works, so that sustained low U undermines structural U over time, lowering the NAIRU. Finally, he sees an asymmetry in inflation behavior in which inflation takes off more slowly than it goes away. This behavior is the opposite of what I'd expect (and different from that found by Akerlof, Dickens and Perry in the 1996 BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY), but it's good that it biases him in favor of low U. However, he's not at the Federal Reserve, which currently has the whip hand in controlling the economy, so his opinions are pretty irrelevant. The reasons for the fall in Stiglitz's estimated NAIRU are interesting: after a bit of blather about the effects of demographic change, he points to the lowering of workers' wage aspirations and "increased competitiveness of the product and labor markets" including "decreasing rates of unionization." This all fits with the idea that relations in "labor markets" are conflictual, involving class struggle (the conflict theory of inflation, that Stiglitz does not endorse). (Bargaining power also plays a role in Blanchard Katz's and in Rogerson's theory.) One might extend Stiglitz to say that the NAIRU has fallen because workers have lost in the class struggle: less of a reserve army of unemployed workers is needed to discipline labor. (Of course, this has corresponded to falling political power for labor and widening gaps between the rich and the poor, but Stiglitz doesn't say anything about that, except in the most abstract way.) Not mentioned is the possibility of lowering the NAIRU by having the capitalists lower their profit-rate aspirations. (Tighten that belt, Rupert Murdoch!) Gordon's article is silly. In order to do his econometrics, he assumes that the NAIRU takes a slow random walk, totally ignoring the various theories that suggest that the NAIRU is not a stochastic variable. He estimates that the NAIRU has fallen of late (to maybe 5.5%, above the current rate). But he strangely comes up with the conclusion that his old estimates for the NAIRU during the 1950s and 1960s were _too low_, going against all of what he'd written (and other mainstream economists had written) about the subject in the past. If I were he, I would seriously consider the possibility that it was the current estimates that were off base. BTW, like most authors in this forum, Gordon sees inflation as taking off rather slowly when U NAIRU. He rejects both Stiglitz- type and Akerlof et al-type asymmetry and ignores hysteresis, however. Blanchard and Katz win the award for the stupidest statement: "Since European inflation in the last five years has been roughly constant, there is little doubt that most of the rise in actual unemployment corresponds to a large increase in the natural rate of unemployment." This ignores the very likely probability that inflation does not change very quickly in the downward direction in the face of high unemployment. If this non-Stiglitz kind of asymmetry of inflation behavior is operating, then we can't conclude anything about the NAIRU from the constancy of the inflation rate over merely 5 years. (We're moving along the horizontal tail of
[PEN-L:8868] Conditions Of Work For Women Deteriorate (Canada)
Only 20% of women have full-time, full-year jobs which pay more than $30,000 per year, compared to 40% of men. Canada has the second highest incidence of low-paid employment for women (34.3%) among all industrialized (OECD) countries. Only Japan (37.2%) was worse. While women account for less than 20% of those in the top ten paying job categories, they represent more than 70% in the lowest paying jobs. The unemployment rate for young women (under 24): 15.6%; for "visible minority" women: 13.4%; for Aboriginal women: 17.7%; and for women with disabilities: 16.6%. Research produced by the Disabled Women's Network of Canada shows that 65% of women with disabilities who were unemployed wanted to work. In less than 20 years, the number of women part-time workers has increased by 200%. Throughout that period, women made up 70% of the part-time workforce. Over a third of part-time workers wanted to work full-time, but could only find part-time work. One in ten jobs are now temporary. Over a period of fifteen years, the number of women working more than one job increased by 372% (Source: Canadian Labour Congress, Women's Work: A Report, Ottawa, March 1997). Shawgi Tell University at Buffalo Graduate School of Education [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[PEN-L:8871]
([EMAIL PROTECTED] [130.179.16.26]) by for [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Mon, 10 Mar 1997 10:21:53 -0600 (CST) From: Helen Osman [EMAIL PROTECTED] for [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Mon, 10 Mar 1997 10:21:51 -0600 (CST) Subject: Cuba visit(long) To: phillps Date: Mon, 10 Mar 1997 10:21:51 -0600 (CST) This is a fairly long digest of our recent visit to Cuba. I hope the purists on the list will find it neither too "artsy feely" no to non-analytical to be of interest. To Jim D., I will return to the NAIRU battleground as soon as I can recover from the blissful contentment of sun and ocean breezes, et al. Reflections on a Cuba Visit by Paul Phillips The Helms-Burton law in the US which penalizes foreign corporations conducting business in Cuba was the final incentive for my wife and I to take a short "sun holiday" in that beleaguered Carribean country during the University of Manitoba's February mid-term break. Relief from a brutal winter and exhausting work schedules was, of course, the prime motivation for "snow birding" to warmer climes but our choice of Cuba was also a political statement in opposition to the extra-territoriality of America's vindictive and punitive approach to Cuba. We had always wanted to visit Cuba, to see for ourselves what was happening in this small country that the US is so paranoid about and which has suffered so much economically from the collapse of the Soviet Union and the continuing US economic embargo. So we also combined a little business with pleasure by spending one day at the University of Matanzas, about 35 kilometers west of the main tourist resort strip of Varadarowhich is booming with construction of huge, grand tourist hotels, joint ventures with Spanish, Italian and Canadian partners. While at the University, we met with the Deans of the Physical Education Faculty and presented them with a promotional Spanish language video of the 1999 Pan American Games in Winnipeg. (Donna, my wife, is Manager of Communications for the Pan American Games.) We visited the Canadian Studies library at the University, an initiative that began at the University of Manitoba, and donated some books that we had brought with us; and we had an extended discussion with the head of the economics department about the state of the Cuban economy and its prospects. As well, as I had just finished a (co-authored) draft of the entry on "market socialism" for the forthcoming Encyclopaedia of Political Economy, I was interested in Cuba's experience with market oriented reforms designed to combat the crisis that the end of Soviet aid and the American embargo had engendered, a subject we also talked about. Obviously, one week's observation of daily life in Cuba and one day of conversations with Cuban economists does not an expert make, but nevertheless, I would like to share some observations and reflections on what I saw and learned. The Tourist Experience We flew from Toronto to Varadaro and then on to Havana by Cubana Airlines, the Cuban national carrier, in a Russian built Ilusyian aircraft. (Interestingly enough, it was smoother and much quieter than the DC 9 we had flown in from Winnipeg to Toronto.) The trip took an hour more than necessary because, being a Cuban airline, it could not fly through US airspace and had to fly east to the Atlantic, down the Atlantic coast, and then west to Cuba. This was just the first example of how US policy has not only added to the cost of Cuban business, but also has contributed to global ecological degradation by unnecessarily increasing fossil fuel consumption. From Havana, we were transported by modern (Japanese) minibus to Santa Maria del Mar 22 kilometers east of Havanawhere our hotel was located on a very beautiful and extensive stretch of Gulf beach. The hotel, built some 20 years ago, had seen better days but was clean and comfortable, everything (satellite TV, radio alarm, air conditioning, elevators) worked and the service was friendly and efficient. The food was plentiful and of good quality just boring. Cuban music, art and dance may be spicy and unique, but poor Cuba must have inherited her food genes from England, except perhaps for the beer and bread which were quite excellent. We stayed at Santa Maria because it was relatively close to Havana and we are inveterate urban prowlers when on holidays. The problem is how to get from the hotel to Havana. Public transport in Cuba has totally broken down, again the result of the American embargo and the lack of domestic supplies of petroleum, a commodity that Cuba had (prior to 1989) imported from the Soviet Union at what were, in effect, subsidized prices. Cuba, I was told, now produces about 25% of the oil it consumes and, with help from Canadian and European oil companies, hopes to increase domestic production through exploration and development. This Canadian and European assistance is, of course, one of the main targets of the Helms-Burton legislation. In
[PEN-L:8867] Albania: Open Rebellion In Southern Albania And Regime Of Terror
The Albanian government sent jets to bomb the population in southern Albania near Saranda on Wednesday in what the government called a major security operation to end the people's growing insurrection. Anti-government forces commandeered tanks and fired anti-aircraft guns across a river east of Vlore. They have captured various arms depots and have taken control of several towns. Albania's foreign minister Tritan Shehu declared the situation in Vlore, Saranda and Delvina "out of control." The government positioned at least five T-55 tanks and half a dozen armored personnel carriers at a checkpoint near Fieri, 55 kilometers south of Tirana and set up other checkpoints in an attempt to prohibit passage either in or out of the southern zone. Italian Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini said he was informed by Shehu, that "insurgents had captured three tanks and many other weapons and aim to seize Tirana." The government is seeking to "isolate" the three southern cities without armed conflict, Shehu said. The president of the European Union, Dutch Foreign Minister Hans van Mierlo, announced he would be in Tirana to meet government officials and opposition members. However, Berisha would not allow him to enter the country. According to news agency reports: "Berisha was quoted as assuring the Italian government that his forces would not seek to retake rebel-held towns by force. The army would seek to isolate the towns and then try to reach a settlement for the rebels to lay down their arms." "In Tepelene itself, a Reuters reporter saw anti-government groups, mainly youths, in firm control, rolling big-caliber guns into the central square." "The president has offered to hold early polls but has refused to enter any coalition with the Socialists." "All you can get on Albanian State Radio is a bellyful of classical music, interspersed every now and then with sketchy, almost laconic news bulletins," an Indian reporter writes."Out in the streets newspaper vendors sell just one newspaper Rijlinda Demokratika, the official organ of the ruling Democratic Party. Its banner headlines proclaim the re-election of Mr. Berisha for a second five year term as President. 'There is no point in our printing right now since every word we write has to be submitted to the censor. Publishing would mean becoming the mouth-piece of the President and that is something we would not like to do,' explained Mr. Shpetim Nazavko, editor of Dita (The Day) a tiny, independent newspaper. The paper's phone lines have been cut and many of its journalists have gone into hiding. And with good reason. The offices of the main opposition daily Koha, Jone (Our Times) were torched by some 20 plainclothes policemen who went on a rampage destroying computers and overturning filing cabinets before setting the office alight. The paper's circulation had gone up three times over the past three months. Mr. Zamir Dule, who covers the activities of the paper which is supported by the Soros Foundation, was picked up by the police and has not been heard from since. There is palpable fear in Tirana. There are long queues before the stores. People are waiting to stock up on essentials such as sugar, flour, oil, bread. (...) At every corner and crossroads, there are identity checks. Armed policemen enter restaurants and cafes, checking the identities of the clients. There is nothing civilized about their behavior which is rude and brutal. They brandish their automatic weapons, administer an arbitrary punch here, a kick there." American Defence Secretary William Cohen, presently in Germany, told reporters that the United States was watching the situation but as of this time there are no military plans that have been instituted nor any need to call upon the U.S. military," he said. There are 1,000 or so American citizens in Albania. U.S. army General George Joulwan, commander of American and NATO forces in Europe said the U.S. already has warships in the region and was in contact with the U.S. ambassador in Tirana. British Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind told CBC Radio on March 4, "We are not prepared to give support when (Berisha) acts in an authoritarian and dictatorial way and that, sadly, has been an increasing feature of his regime...The Albanian government has not been properly respecting either the rule of law or fundamental democratic principles of free media and free activity of the opposition." The government has called the insurrection "a rebellion fomented by red bandits." Security forces deployed from Tirana have orders to shoot on sight anyone carrying arms. Shawgi Tell University at Buffalo Graduate School of Education [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[PEN-L:8865] Re: FW: BLS Daily Report
This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. -- =_NextPart_000_01BC2D67.DCD836D0 Perhaps these things appear lest we forget who is the govt. REALLY represents. After one works here for a while the desensitization approaches 100% -- I do not remember reading the lines you quoted. Dave -- Sent: Monday, March 10, 1997 1:10 PM Subject:[PEN-L:8862] Re: FW: BLS Daily Report At 9:03 AM -0800 3/10/97, Richardson_D wrote: Recent changes to the home page -- /http:www.dol.gov/ -- include addition of two new "hot buttons," one for teen safety, the other for the Family and Medical Leave Act (Daily Labor Report, page A-10). Isn't that just so revoltingly Clinton? Doug -- Doug Henwood Left Business Observer 250 W 85 St New York NY 10024-3217 USA +1-212-874-4020 voice +1-212-874-3137 fax email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] web: http://www.panix.com/~dhenwood/LBO_home.html -- =_NextPart_000_01BC2D67.DCD836D0 b3NvZnQgTWFpbC5Ob3RlADEIAQmAAQAhMTJEOTNCRTUzNzk5RDAxMTg4OEUwMDIwQUY5QzAz gAQAAgIAAgABBIABACoAAABSRTogW1BFTi1MOjg4NjJdIFJlOiBGVzogQkxTIERhaWx5IFJl cG9ydADPCwEDkAYAcAYAABgDAC4AAEAAOQDAmLCNkS28AR4AcAABKgAAAFJFOiBb UEVOLUw6ODg2Ml0gUmU6IEZXOiBCTFMgRGFpbHkgUmVwb3J0AgFxAAEWAbwtkY2f 5TvZE5k3EdCIjgAgr5wDCwAGEHDxUD8DAAcQ1AIAAB4ACBABZQAAAFBFUkhBUFNUSEVT RVRISU5HU0FQUEVBUkxFU1RXRUZPUkdFVFdIT0lTVEhFR09WVFJFQUxMWVJFUFJFU0VOVFNBRlRF Uk9ORVdPUktTSEVSRUZPUkFXSElMRVRIRURFU0VOU0kAAwAQEAADABEQAQIBCRAB AgQAAP4DAAAUBwAATFpGdfC4VV7/AAoBDwIVAqQD5AXrAoMAUBMDVAIAY2gKwHNldO4yBgAG wwKDMgPGBxMCg7ozEw19CoAIzwnZOxX/eDI1NQKACoENsQtgbvBnMTAzFCALChLyDAGyYwBAIFAE kBHAcAQgtHRoB5BlG1ELgGcEIGkbIHBlCsFsB5AFQHczG6ACEHJnEgAc4GhvBiAEABtSIGdvdnQC LgfwRUFMTFkg3RYAcBYAEfACMHMegBNwWwGABJAgAiAboHcFsGv/BCAbcBYAHRIcIB2BAxAbog8b oA2wH2EAkHRpemG/IqACIBwiA2AA0BtxIBkggDAlIC0tIEkiIPkdsG5vBUAWAAeABtAgEdkWAGFk G+Ed82wLgAeRYnkIYCBxdSTACYAuwwqFCoVEYXZlJ1wK9JEmQDE0NALRaS0p0+cM0CnTC1kxNgqg A2AgAP5jBUAkMCx2CocrKwwwK/b6RgNhOi1+K/YMgiggCGAdJeBICfAggARwW1NNsFRQOmQbcDGj QAqwyQMAeC4FoG1dLR8uLS8GYAIwL18wa00CIGRhfHksBdAKwBGwI9E4ADFoOTk3I9A6GSAa0E0z M48uLVRvNc823HVs7yKgC1AboBYAYwUgCJAfgT0gMGYmMRzAOY80nnViDmosMTuvMGtbUEVOAC1M Ojg4NjJdJQfwZUGgRldBoEJM1wXwKDADEHlEQXAVoSh/LwsoFCIMASv2QQVAOTpLGTATcE0kIDA4 I/AgNDMvGSAvOOA4AFJpyRGyZHMCIF9EHOAsAqo6J1w+RFBjH3EgEbF7GQAHkXQdsB4CHaAHgCD3 RnAdUCQiL0cNGqEMYBXgYyv1KaBua2Qg0AJAcJQ6d1DwLiSAbC4eQe9Obiv2JCILgGMKQA2wS7bv JaAlsCLjPsF0IIAkoAfRZiIdoAVAYnUCQAIgczwsIiAzITIgAAnwIHP8YWYSADfxHgIkwCDhHRLj S7YeAkZhbUUyAHBQgM5NCYBKIAdAIEwcYChQqxNwLEEuWzEoRRRMAaAvBbFFdDgATeNBKkAwKeEn TUlzbicFQBtgItC4IGp1HMFKgB8BdgbwtyKgGQBFQUMmQVYRPydc/yfGMUEnXCz3YakxdkZFWpCf AYBEwF8QJlIEIE9iEfAecihQWJYYMDlAVyA47jUGAD8mB8JZIJEHsB7wgSPhMjQtMzIxOPCIVVNB RkUrMS1pgHAyLTg3aVAp8AHQII9foEogG6BqWjMxMzjweGZheEZFJQBFIUGgPPtOf0+PIG2CTSAy TwNwUb/tLBQ+RkUc8GJtz27fUGdMLy9Q8jLnL35wli9QTEJPX02SLlCgbf91QXHfcupF3xmfK/Z7 VRUhAgB+MwA2AAADACYAAAIB+T8BHgDcp0DIwEIQGrS5CAArL+GC AQAuHgD4PwEVU3lzdGVtIEFkbWluaXN0cmF0b3IAAgH7PwEe ANynQMjAQhAatLkIACsv4YIBAC4eAPo/AQAAABUAAABTeXN0ZW0gQWRt aW5pc3RyYXRvcgBAAAcwwK0SSZEtvAFAAAgwgEx3xZEtvAEDAA00/T8AAAIBFDQBEAAA AFSUocApfxAbpYcIACsqJRceAD0AAQUAAABSRTogAAsAKQAACwAjAAACAX8A LmJscy5nb3Y+AAANxw== -- =_NextPart_000_01BC2D67.DCD836D0--
[PEN-L:8864] Re: CPI for those over 65
Hi Marianne -- One cite is "Experimental Consumer Price Index for Americans 62 Years of Age and Older," Kenneth J. Stewart and Joseph Pavalone, CPI Detailed Report Data, April, 1996, pp. 4-7. It shows that the CPI-E increased by 15.9% from Dec., 1990, to Dec., 1995, while the CPI-U (all urban consumers) went up 14.7%. There is also "Experimental Price Index for Elderly Consumers," Nathan Amble and Kenneth J. Stewart, Monthly Labor Review, May, 1994. The CPI-E was based at 100.0 in Dec., 1982, and in Jan., 1997, stood at 168.6, a 68.6% increase. The Dec., 1982, CPI-U was 97.6 and increased to 159.1 in Jan., 1997, a 63.0% increase. There are a great many caveats which we send out with this data. The numbers and some of the printed material is available by FAX (and E-mail from the cognoscenti). The general opinion here at BLS is that inflation for the elderly is only slightly higher than inflation generally. Dave Richardson -- Sent: Friday, March 07, 1997 2:54 PM Subject:[PEN-L:8853] Re: CPI for those over 65 The Public Utility Law Project is in Albany, NY. The phone number is (518) 449-3375 Can anyone provide me with a cite showing that the CPI for those over 65 has been rising more rapidly than the overall CPI? I know Trudy Renwick had figures for women and other groups, but I don't know where her Public Utility Law Project is and don't know if she has figures for the general population over 65. Our newspaper here favors the cuts in Social Security to match an "accurate" CPI. Marianne Hill [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[PEN-L:8863] Deregulation Effects on Employment
Dear Friends, I am putting together a panel on deregulation in the electric utility industry. If you are doing research on the employment effects of deregulation--especially in the electric industry-- please send me a note with information on what you are doing or what you have already published. OR, if you know of someone who is doing research on deregulation in the electric industry, please let me know. Thanks. Heather Grob Economics Research Coordinator The Center to Protect Workers' Rights 111 Massachusetts Avenue NW Suite 509 Washington, DC 20001 (202) 962-8490 (202) 962-8499 FAX [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[PEN-L:8862] Re: FW: BLS Daily Report
At 9:03 AM -0800 3/10/97, Richardson_D wrote: Recent changes to the home page -- /http:www.dol.gov/ -- include addition of two new "hot buttons," one for teen safety, the other for the Family and Medical Leave Act (Daily Labor Report, page A-10). Isn't that just so revoltingly Clinton? Doug -- Doug Henwood Left Business Observer 250 W 85 St New York NY 10024-3217 USA +1-212-874-4020 voice +1-212-874-3137 fax email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] web: http://www.panix.com/~dhenwood/LBO_home.html
[PEN-L:8860] FW: BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 5, 1997 The Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely begin publishing an experimental cost-of-living measure as an alternative to the CPI before April 15, says BLS economist Patrick Jackman at a National Association of Business Economists' seminar. Jackman, who works with consumer prices, said BLS will begin publishing a geometric mean experimental index alongside the CPI BLS Commissioner Katharine Abraham has said BLS will not automatically switch to a geometric mean index without first testing to see if it is more accurate than the index currently used. The BLS now uses an index that does not allow for item substitution. A geometric mean index allows for those substitutions, which Abraham has said is appropriate in some, but not all cases Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ), the chairman of the JEC, is the latest legislator to address the controversy. Saxton warned that a reduction in the CPI along the lines of the Boskin Commission recommendations would result in a "dramatic" middle-class tax increase according to a JEC report (Daniel J. Roy, Daily Labor Report, page A-7). __Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan yesterday strongly supported creation of a presidentially appointed commission to set the size of annual cost-of-living adjustments in Social Security, other federal benefits, and income taxes, an idea that appears to be gaining political momentum. Greenspan was testifying before the House Budget Committee Greenspan suggested that former members of the Fed Board and the CEA would be appropriate members of a commission. The members should have the "technical expertise" to make judgments regarding issues of measuring prices and constructing price indexes. On the other hand, he said he did not intend for the commission to do original research but to use research that has been done to come up with a number that more closely reflects changes in the cost of living BLS Commissioner Katharine G. Abraham and other economists have criticized some of the Boskin group's conclusions, particularly concerning quality changes. Abraham has said that there is no conclusive evidence that the CPI, which already incorporates large adjustments for quality changes, has an upward bias in this regard (John M. Berry, Washington Post, page A1). __The Clinton Administration and Congress continued today to dance around one of the most sensitive issues they fact this year -- whether to reduce cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security. Alan Greenspan urged the House Banking Committee to tackle the issue head on by appointing a commission that would provide a better estimate of increases in the cost-of-living than the CPI (Richard W. Stevenson, New York Times, page A17). __Under unusually hostile fire from a fellow free-market Republican, Greenspan defended his recent blunt cautions about the stock market's record rise The exchange came amid a hearing on the accuracy of the CPI Greenspan said a commission should be made up of experts BLS would continue to be responsible for the price index, he said. But, because it would take years for the bureau to revise the measure, the expert panel could decide each year what downward revision would make the index more truly reflect the cost of living Meanwhile, BLS said it plans to release an experimental CPI before April 15. The new index will address complaints that the current index doesn't account for consumers' ability to substitute cheaper items -- to switch to chicken, say, when beef prices rise (Jackie Calmes, Wall Street Journal, A2). David S. Broder discusses on the op-ed page of the Washington Post the plan of The Coalition, also called the Blue Dogs, a group of 22 moderate and conservative House Democrats, to balance the budget Part of their plan is to adjust the inflation index for both tax rates and retirement benefits by a bit less than one percent to extend the life of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds and reduce the deficit They say that adjustment of 8/10ths of one percent should be taken now, while the experts try to figure out a more accurate index __The Conference Board reports that the index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent in January, the largest monthly increase since a 0.3 percent advance in May 1996 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; New York Times, page B4)_The advance exceeded expectations of about 0.1 percent growth and was another suggestion that economic growth may be too robust for inflation to remain tame (Washington Post, page C11). New home sales in January surged 8.6 percent to a nearly 11-year high, a Commerce Department report showed, but economists weren't sure what to make of it because of a data-collection change. The department said its field agents started collecting sales data with laptop computers, rather than with paper and pencil. It said that
[PEN-L:8866] FW: BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 7, 1997
RELEASED TODAY:
EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- Nonfarm payroll employment rose, and the
unemployment rate was about unchanged at 5.3 percent in February. The
number of payroll jobs increased by 339,000 over the month;
construction employment rose sharply, and there were gains throughout
the service-producing sector. Average hourly earnings rose by 3 cents
in February, and the average workweek rebounded from a weather-related
drop in January
JEC STATEMENT -- Much of the February employment increase
occurred in construction, which added 109,000 jobs. The magnitude of
February's increase can be attributed largely to mild weather across
much of the country, following unusually severe weather in January,
which had restricted employment growth. Nevertheless, job growth in
construction has been strong since late 1995
Bond traders warily approached the one-year anniversary of one of the
biggest monthly U.S. payroll gains on record by driving prices lower
BLS has applied increasingly aggressive seasonal factors to
mitigate February gains. That has convinced some on Wall Street to
predict that today's report will show a relatively small payroll gain
-- such as 130,000 ("Credit Markets, Wall Street Journal, page
C17).
New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance
benefits decreased by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 310,000
during the week ended March 1, the Labor Department reports (Daily
Labor Report, page D-1)_New orders to factories jumped 2.5 percent
in January, more than reversing the previous month's 1.5 percent
decline, the Commerce Department reports (Daily Labor Report, page
D-15)_The rise in new orders was stronger than expected, and the
number of first-time claims for jobless benefits plunged, pushing the
four-week average to an eight-year low (Washington Post, page G8;
New York Times, page B4; Wall Street Journal, page A2)_Mild
weather, consumer spending spur February chain-store sales gains
(Daily Labor Report, page A-11)_Retailers' sales gained at
high and low ends in February (New York Times, page B1)
Although current downsizing trends in American businesses have
resulted in increased productivity and savings, the costs associated
with such changes have negatively affected entry-level and unskilled
workers, according to a study by the Committee on New American
Realities of the National Policy Association "Change at Work"
found corporate reorganizations often eliminate lower skilled,
entry-level positions (Daily Labor Report, page A-3).
Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss) called on President Clinton
to take the lead on producing a balanced budget for fiscal 1998 and to
act quickly to appoint an independent commission to determine whether
the CPI overstates inflation However, the president's spokesman
deflected Lott's call ... saying the important work ahead is
negotiating a balanced budget by the statutory deadlines (Daily
Labor Report, page A-11).
"Why You Can't Tell What Things Cost" in last Sunday's New York Times
(page E5) says that price confusion -- the inability to figure out
who's offering the best bargain, or even to know the true cost of
something after you've bought it -- has seldom seemed so universal.
The traditional laws of supply and demand once imposed a semblance of
order and clarity on prices, but today they are being so haphazardly
amended by pell-mell technological changes and new marketing wrinkles
that the American marketplace now offers all the certainty of a
Mideast bazaar -- maybe less How did buying become such a
conundrum? There are plenty of reasons. Not only are technological
advances fueling obsolescence or price volatility, they are also
allowing airlines and other businesses to better monitor consumer
demand so they can change prices at a moment's notice. Government
deregulation has spurred price competition in many businesses. And
computers, with their potential for on-line buying, may speed the
decline of the cash economy and make transactions even more
intangible. At the same time, Americans' stubbornly robust spending
habits have created a competitive hurly-burly of marketing innovations
and outright gimmickry Persuaded by mass marketing that this land
of seemingly limitless choices offers a better deal just around the
corner, customers have become ever more demanding and fickle. The
marketing meisters respond with sales, coupons, and discounts, you
name it Economists and politicians fret that much of this price
flux eludes the CPI, which regulates annual adjustments to a third of
federal spending and adjusts tax brackets -- meaning that the cost of
price confusion affects pretty much everyone, even if you don't buy
anything
[PEN-L:8861] FW: BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 6, 1997 White House and congressional officials are getting flak from party colleagues for supporting the idea of an independent commission to revise the government's inflation index, slowing the momentum for the proposal Part of the difficulty is defining the panel, deciding on its members, mandate, and timetable. Many rank-and-file politicians insist that no expert panel would have the credibility of the BLS technocrats who now compile the CPI, especially when the president and Congress are desperate for big savings to balance the budget while cutting taxes and finding new initiatives. "Politicians of either party, in the end, won't sign off on anyone else doing it other than BLS," says Ohio Rep. John Boehner, head of the House Republican Conference (Wall Street Journal, page A2). A Wall Street Journal editorial says the GOP should do the right thing on the CPI Which is to go ahead and make the inflation adjustment. Two-thirds of the academic economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal believe the right government policies can boost the American economic growth rate by a substantial one-half percentage point a year, a profoundly optimistic view. But they have a harder time agreeing on what it is the government should do, though. Given 10 choices, most economists responding to the poll said none of them would have a "major positive impact on growth". Asked to pick one anyway, 43 percent say more government spending on education and research and development would give the biggest bang for the buck (Wall Street Journal, page A2). Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan told a House Banking subcommittee he has no opinion as to whether Congress should trim cost-of-living adjustments that affect federal benefit payments and tax brackets During an earlier-morning appearance before the National Association of Business Economists, Greenspan said the Fed would not be willing to publish its own price index. The best price statisticians are housed at BLS, which constructs the CPI. "We can't match the skills that they have," he said (Daily Labor Report, page A-9)_Greenspan told the House subcommittee that he wasn't seeking to "Jawbone" the market downward because, in his view, that's not possible He said, if Congress wished to protect some groups from the impact of using a more accurate price measure, he would have no objection (Washington Post, page E4)_Comments by Greenspan relieved a worried stock market, driving up prices (New York Times, page B1)_Greenspan said the economy remains in the zone where inflation risks "are on the upside" and that he is poised to act "pre-emptively" by raising interest rates (Wall Street Journal, page A3). Checking out at a supermarket isn't as costly as most people think. Prices for the top 100 packaged-goods categories (excluding meats, fresh vegetables, and fruits) rose just 2 percent a year for the four years that ended in September, says a study of supermarket checkout prices that A.C. Nielsen Co. conducted for The Wall Street Journal Yet shoppers persist in believing that they're getting ripped off -- and economists and marketing experts say the grocery industry may have only itself to blame. With a proliferation of new products and sizes, double-discount coupons and store specials, it's no wonder consumes are confused about what's a good buy Also, shoppers are more sensitive to price increases. Wages aren't rising as fast as they used to, and other consumer goods, such as apparel and television, have been coming down in price. Prices at retail stores in general fell 1.1 percent over the past four years, says Economic Analysis Associates in Greenwich, Conn. "Food looks high relative to other goods" But many large companies are trimming their product lines and planning to introduce fewer new products in the future. That leads some marketing experts to predict manufacturers will have more power to eventually raise prices -- meaning expectations of higher inflation could come true after all (Wall Street Journal, page B1). As part of its effort to keep its Internet home page up-to-date, the Labor Department is regularly changing the structure of the site. Recent changes to the home page -- /http:www.dol.gov/ -- include addition of two new "hot buttons," one for teen safety, the other for the Family and Medical Leave Act (Daily Labor Report, page A-10). DUE OUT TOMORROW: The Employment Situation: February 1997
[PEN-L:8859] RE: request for help with sources - 1
Does anyone know how to contact David P. Ellerman? Thanks in advance, Edwin Dickens
