[PEN-L:172] Re: In Response to Jim Devine's Question
To whom..., I agree with everything C. Perelman said and I would add that a Keynesian system also fosters a high degree of cronyism among industrialists, banks and government. This further insulates businesses from economic reality. Moreover it undermines the development of market disciplines in the financial sector by discouraging speculative competition in correctly pricing credit, private agencies and firms that encourage transparency through pricing credit and rating risk, transparency itself, and the adoption of new techniques for creating credit. In other words, punters with an "in" to the bureaucracy wipe out punters without an "in" so that arbitrage, swaps and derivatives become either too risky or superfluous, folks like analysts, Moody's and Standard and Poors become less necessary and effective since "in's" are more important than analysis and bureaucratic decisions trump opinions formed by the financial marketplace, cronyists don't want people to know what's going on anyway, and there's no reason to develop things like venture capital when you can just go to the trough if you know the right people. Japan's system shows the effects of all these deficits and distorions Keynesianism creates in capitalism. It also shows the one great, even indispensible, benefit of Keynesianism which is original credit creation. While having distortions is certainly much less of a problem than not having a credit system to distort, it doesn't mean that a return to Keynesianism as such can cure the woes of a Japan or even an Indonesia or a Russia. Korea, the one country that has taken the new finance capitalist doctrines to heart, seems to be showing a glimmer of a positive divergence from Japan and the rest of East Asia but it is far too early to call it a success. The very real question is whether finance capitalism can re-prime its own pump. I'm not at all certain it can but I don't think I would bet against the kind of bull market environment we've seen in America developing, first in Europe and then in Japan and possibly other countries in East Asia.
[PEN-L:174] BLS Daily Report
This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. -- =_NextPart_000_01BDE62B.D7B88830 BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 1998 Full employment should be the main goal of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to reverse decades of widening wage inequality, says economist James K. Galbraith. "Wage inequality narrowed last year for the first time in almost two decades," says Galbraith at a Century Fund panel discussion in Washington, D.C. Galbraith points to the sustained low unemployment rate as the reason wage inequality reversed its widening trend in 1997. He argued that the expansion is at jeopardy because of the Asian crisis, the economic collapse of Russian, and the stock market slide. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). The unemployment rate remained at a relatively low level in all regions of the country in August, with the Midwest recording the lowest rate at 3.5 percent, BLS reports. Among the other regions, the jobless rate was 4.4 percent in the South, 4.5 percent in the Northeast, and 5.2 percent in the West. Over the year ended in August, the unemployment rate declined 0.9 percentage point in the Northeast, 0.5 point in the Midwest and South, and 0.3 point in the West. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Employment opportunities will remain abundant through the end of 1998, although job prospects for some workers appear to be slipping from the decade-high levels observed earlier this year, according to BNA's latest quarterly employment survey. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-13). Housing starts fell 5.5 percent in August, more than reversing July's 5.3 percent gain, the Commerce Department reported. However, building permits, considered a barometer of future economic activity, rose 2.2 percent during the month. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-9; Wall Street Journal, page A2). The financial and political blows of recent weeks have yet to shake Americans' basic faith in the United States economy or their own finances -- good news for the seven-and-a-half-year-old expansion. Since the Russian economy's collapse, the tumble in stock prices, and the release of the Starr report, consumers have turned only slightly more cautions, according to a major poll of consumer attitudes. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped to 100.1 in September, from 104.1 in August -- mostly because consumers' expectations for the economy in the next year or so are somewhat less upbeat. By past measures, confidence remains exceptionally high. ... (New York Times, Sept. 19, page A1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment and Unemployment Among Youth--Summer 1998 -- =_NextPart_000_01BDE62B.D7B88830 b3NvZnQgTWFpbC5Ob3RlADEIAQWAAwAOzgcJABYACQAbAB0AAgA3AQEggAMADgAAAM4HCQAW gAEAEQAAAEJMUyBEYWlseSBSZXBvcnQAkAUBDYAEAAICAAIAAQOQBgCwCQAAHEAAOQCg Ejm/LOa9AR4AcAABEQAAAEJMUyBEYWlseSBSZXBvcnQAAgFxAAEWAb3mLF43 7CrTk1H2EdKIjgAgr5wDCAAAHgAxQAENUklDSEFSRFNPTl9EAAMAGkAAHgAw 2R9xev8ACgEPAhUCpAPkBesCgwBQEwNUAgBjaArAc2V0bjIGAAbDAoMyA8UCAHDccnESIAcTAoB9 CoAIzx8J2QKACoENsQtgbmcxODAzMwr7EvIB0CBCgkwF8ERBSUxZB/BARVBPUlQsBdBPKk4YwFkZ gFMZMFRFgE1CRVIgMjEZgDAxOTk4CoUKhUZ10mwDIGVtC1BvBsAJ8AkFQHNoCGBsZCBicGUgdGgd oADAC4AgRGdvB0Agb2Yds0Y3CYAEkB5xUgeQBJB2ZTYnBCAEYG4SAArAeSAScAbwaWMgoHRvINcV MB/gEeEgBYFhDbAEID8eoQPwDbADABbgIoBhZyMdoAuAZXF1B0BpdGJ5GYBzYXkEIAWRbicDcAQA BUBKYQeCSy60IEcHQGIfUCPgaCWQyCAiVyM8IG4KwANgmncJgCALYCTxeWUKwWcCEAXAHcJmaRHg BUB0uwdxI2EgB0AEYClidyFAeSHlLCIkJCW3KgAFQGG8IEMc4QhwIKAcIG4dcJcKsCBQAyBkBABj dQQQfmkCICnSJoAdICLhITBu8RmARC5DJkEruCDAC4DudAQgITEdwnMuEAGQI3G7J/EnwCAtMBx5 H1B0HaD/KCAdsxUwKCAuUSMtIVYdcPcj4AQgIpd0FTAtQR4hGwHKNyZBSDMxcmcKUB1w5x3ALFEd wmV4LXEuNAQg8SxRamVvCwIgoB2QIgD3LhAdoB6lQQCQA5EFAQCQdysgOHQklGM7kAbwC2Bw/Tqk Ui4SAHAZgABwOBIxMckhMGNrHfFyaxIAHRAXIOANsCWQLkAAIChE9QtwbCCgTAGgBbEfkCDADwAg GYAKsCNBQS01KfouG0xUHdEyPyFRHgIn4X8sUxUwC2ApkB/gQIEx8mzfIXEDICnjAyAVMGcuQSJD Px3CBaAtMDaQIKAeIUF1vzfgJPAZgAPwLCEdwk0ioP8n0CTxFTAFoS3QNmId0THxx0oDMxMFQDMu NSCwBJC+YxzhGYAYghUwQTJzJZD2QSAxSsRvHcEFwEcVPAT8am8CYAeQBCAzAyMgBCC4NC40TEYp 0h3CUwhg3x3AGYBQkEw3UUZOFNEd0LMoIT4kNS4SIFDdV0oB/SWQTyGBHbMoYzaxNZJImB8dwkNf IdIg4DGyMC45/0xGIzIwc1LvGYBZwEwxWsrfScY+QlHFPkJZwDNarFWEo0APQRtELTFCHkUciP85 4EEyLTAj4AiQNeJG4x4D/wGgLTEAcDhiA2BIwElkNrL3HqEbAj4hbB3AZkNPgSCw9QNgc0xQYzCx KLIz8Cmx/yqQP0ER4CoAY/AociExHZG/P5Fj8CLiA1IdsyHkLS7g92ZhRkMiQWIfsx1wKHEg4G9W AzlhKGI+IWNKZyFAQvxOQSABRXFKAiOhACAEkG9goRx6CHAf4HlgD2EfMfozQh5ICGAAkCLxMXFN Yf8ooC2gAyBUUFJbSLYEYBUwrzgiA6AhZCLiShwweSAB91RQXtFQ5WcLcRmAHbMIUP5tB4BMcRiw QSBwwTK0QSP/CYAlkHWQJ9AhgRmAZZADEP9Kk0xRJNAwsBmAJJEAkASBv0TSHYAKwGlhcOEekmZR 4H8IcDxJANBFkSPjaIEdoDL9VGlkCHFKtSAxJiJyf2E9bDk7LqEcQVM2kT9hSusIYSeAbEF2MkIf KQMngPxuYwcxPjMgwimQIgADID8CYCfAIkNKQRziJ9Bla38EIBHAH+AoUSlxIUAdIGHfP1BNoQZx IgAAgCd/sQCQ7TzQZiwDUVVVZFEn4Ybgv3BCJHUgoCjEKUAekHcDoPOJlAeRLS0eQQRwJ3AH0Odo 9DETIXFuLT5Bk9BscOkHQGYtKGItBvBtsTjW/SZBUwuAe8Edwj21kEYgAf889jwELNAG0EZAKdI+ xBOQ/yDw
[PEN-L:175] BLS Daily Report
This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. -- =_NextPart_000_01BDE660.040EDC90 charset="iso-8859-1" BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 1998 RELEASED TODAY: CPI -- On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in August, the same as in July. In August, the food index increased 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month. Prices for food at home advanced 0.3 percent as a sharp increase in prices for dairy products was partially offset by a decline in the index for fruits and vegetables. The energy index, which was unchanged in July, declined 1.0 percent in August. The index for petroleum-based energy decreased 1.4 percent, and the index for energy services fell 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U increased 0.2 percent in August, the same as in July. An upturn in the index for apparel, reflecting the introduction of fall-winter wear, was largely offset by smaller increases in the indexes for cigarettes and airline fares, coupled with a decline in the index for telephone services. ... REAL EARNINGS -- Real average weekly earnings increased by 0.5 percent from July to August after seasonal adjustment. The increase stemmed from a 0.5 percent increase in average hourly earnings; average weekly hours were flat. The earnings increase was slightly offset by a 0.1 percent rise in the CPI-W. ... From August 1997 to August 1998, real average weekly earnings grew by 3.5 percent. ... The gap in hourly compensation costs between manufacturing production workers in the United States and the average for 28 foreign economies widened in 1997, reflecting the dollar's rise against foreign currencies, BLS reports. ... (Daniel J. Roy in Daily Labor Report, page D-6). Fed Chairman Greenspan told Congress that there is no current plan for a coordinated cut in interest rates by the central banks of major industrial countries to spur slowing world economic growth. But Greenspan did not rule out rate cuts by the Fed, either alone or in concert with other central banks, if the turmoil in global financial markets, which has spilled over into U.S. markets, threatens continued U.S. economic growth. ... (Washington Post, page C1; Wall Street Journal, page A2)_Greenspan testifies that the world's big economies had no plans for a coordinated reduction in interest rates. ... "Deflationary forces are continuing to emerge" in much of the rest of the world, he said, and they are moving toward the United States. ... (New York Times, page A1). While virtually all regions of the United States kept up their pace of strong economic growth in late summer, prospects are dimming in some areas and industries as businesses look toward the final quarter of this year, the Federal Reserve reports in its latest "beige book." Tight labor markets persisted in most Fed districts, a factor that is pushing up wages at a faster rate. Countering reports of higher wages, the Fed says that its districts report that prices for most goods and services are still rising at a modest clip. The Asian economic crisis is most evident in manufacturing areas of the Fed's San Francisco district, where high-technology firms are paring back production. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-17; Washington Post, page C3; Wall Street Journal, page A2). Industrial production rebounded 1.7 percent in August as workers returned to factories following the General Motors strike, the Federal Reserve reports. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; Washington Post, page C3; New York Times, page C23; Wall Street Journal, page A2). Business inventories were unchanged in July, reflecting a drop in car dealer stocks as a result of the GM strike, according to the Commerce Department. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-10; Wall Street Journal, page A2). While most industrialized countries have recorded reduced immigration flows in recent years, the United States is in the midst of an immigration boom that is likely to have significant impact on the workforce and the economy, according to the OECD. ... Foreign workers are increasingly present in the services sector, the study finds. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-3). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: August 1998 -- =_NextPart_000_01BDE660.040EDC90 b3NvZnQgTWFpbC5Ob3RlADEIAQWAAwAOzgcJABYADwAmADkAAgBkAQEggAMADgAAAM4HCQAW gAEAEQAAAEJMUyBEYWlseSBSZXBvcnQAkAUBDYAEAAICAAIAAQOQBgAsDAAAHEAAOQCw P+OjYOa9AR4AcAABEQAAAEJMUyBEYWlseSBSZXBvcnQAAgFxAAEWAb3mYEL/ 7CrTxVH2EdKIjgAgr5wDCAAAHgAxQAENUklDSEFSRFNPTl9EAAMAGkAAHgAw QAENUklDSEFSRFNPTl9EAAMAGUAAAgEJEAEAAABoCQAAZAkAAHYRAABMWkZ1 UHd7Bv8ACgEPAhUCpAPkBesCgwBQEwNUAgBjaArAc2V0bjIGAAbDAoMyA8UCAHDccnESIAcTAoB9 CoAIzx8J2QKACoENsQtgbmcxODAzMwr7EvIB0CBCgkwF8ERBSUxZB/AARVBPUlQsIFRQSFVSUxjA WRmAUwEZMFRFTUJFUiCEMTcZgDE5OTgKhaMKhRkgTEVBGkBEGZAaTxnxOgqFHZNDUEkgI
[PEN-L:179] Re: THE AGRIBUSINESS EXAMINER #
I think that Al Kreb's address is on the mailing. If not, I can look it up. Tim Stroshane wrote: > Michael > > I was very interested in this "magazine" you sent out a few weeks > back. How can one subscribe to it? > > Tim Stroshane > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
[PEN-L:180] THE AGRIBUSINESS EXAMINER
I looked it up again, and found Al Krebs' earthlink email address. I'll ask him directly. My apologies for missing the obvious.
[PEN-L:178] Re: THE AGRIBUSINESS EXAMINER #
I merely reposted something I received. You'll have to look to the message for any indicating of its originator and contact them. Michael At 02:22 PM 9/22/1998 -0700, Tim Stroshane wrote: >Michael > >I was very interested in this "magazine" you sent out a few weeks >back. How can one subscribe to it? > >Tim Stroshane ><[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > >
[PEN-L:177] THE AGRIBUSINESS EXAMINER #
Michael I was very interested in this "magazine" you sent out a few weeks back. How can one subscribe to it? Tim Stroshane <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
[PEN-L:176] BLS Daily Report
This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand
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charset="iso-8859-1"
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 1998
RELEASED TODAY: The gap in hourly compensation costs for manufacturing
production workers between the United States and the average for 28
foreign economies widened in 1997, reflecting the U.S. dollar's
appreciation against many foreign currencies. The average cost level
for the 28 foreign economies studied by BLS was 16 percent lower than
U.S. costs, when weighted by their importance in trade with the United
States. The gap was only 5 percent in 1995 -- the smallest difference
in the 1975-1997 period. ...
Import prices fell for the 10th consecutive month in August, dropping
0.3 percent, BLS reported. Export prices dropped 0.6 percent in August,
with farm prices leading the decline. "The 0.3 percent decline for
import prices in August continued a three-year downward trend," BLS
said. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-4)_U.S. import prices,
excluding petroleum products, fell 0.3 percent in August, the 11th
straight monthly decline. That reflects financially troubled Asian
countries having to sell their goods to the U.S. at fire-sale prices.
While the decline in import prices is good for consumers in the
short term because competition forces U.S. producers to keep their
prices low, it has shown signs of eroding U.S. manufacturers' profit
margins, which isn't good for the overall economy (Wall Street Journal,
page A2).
Held down in part by sluggish auto sales, total U.S. retail sales
increased by 0.2 percent in August, according to Census Bureau figures.
(Daily Labor Report, page D-1)_Consumers bought furniture and
back-to-school clothes, but slowed their purchases of big-ticket items
(Washington Post, page B9; New York Times, page C6)_The gain didn't
make up for July's 0.6 percent drop. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2).
Business Week (Sept. 21, page 14) publishes a letter from Commissioner
Abraham, responding to a reader's letter ("Prices may be stable, but
add-on fees are soaring") that implied that movements in the CPI do not
reflect service charges and other fees sometimes associated with
consumer purchases. Abraham wrote, "As a matter of fact, such fees are
routinely taken into account in CPI calculations. As a rule, prices
reflect the full amounts that consumers are actually charged."
For reasons that government statisticians can't explain, the monthly
survey of private and government payrolls shows employment increasing
much faster than the monthly survey of 50,000 households -- and
policymakers don't know which figure to trust, writes John M. Berry
("Trendlines," Washington Post, page B9). ... Many analysts, including
those at BLS, regard the payroll figures as the better measure of
month-to-month changes in employment, but, over longer periods of time,
the results of the household survey may do just as well. Given the
current divergence, some analysts are closely watching both figures. ...
BLS economist Tom Nardone said he and his colleagues have been exploring
all the differences in the two surveys to find out why they have been
behaving so differently. ... "It's possible that it is not one thing
going on but a lot of small things going in the same direction," Nardone
said.
Many men are caught in the "Daddy Trap," says Business Week (Sept. 21,
page 56). In the last two decades, expectations of men at home have
intensified dramatically. Dads are more involved with their families,
and in general they enjoy that heightened role. Yet their jobs haven't
adjusted. Faced with pressure to take on more child-rearing and
household chores, fathers still find themselves locked into rigid
full-time jobs. Some of the tension is workplace-inflicted. A lot is
self-imposed. The result, in either case, is conflict, guilt, and
stress. It turns out that dads are no more satisfied than moms with
their work-family balance, according to a sample of 6,328 working
parents derived from Business Week's survey of corporate work and family
programs, conducted with the Center for Work & Family at Boston College.
DUE OUT TOMORROW:
Consumer Price Index -- August 1998
Real Earnings: August 1998
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[PEN-L:173] Re: Re: Who is J. Sachs?
At 20:53 21/09/98 -0700, you wrote: >Tom, are you a member of lbo-talk? Nope; volume was a bit high. could you post a message to that list on >the proposition that Sach's policy worked to solve the problems of the >Bolivian economy to that list? Depends on what you mean by "worked". I'd only suggest it "worked" in the limited sense that Sachs noted: (a) it went from being a highly dependent, under-developed, miserable situation with inflation to one without; (b) it "worked" to radically reduce the power of labor generally, achieved only through militariztaion of work centers, forcible relocation and repression and internal exile of labor leaders; plus (c) I'd add the caveat stability achieved by Sachs & Co. may have more that a little to do with chagnes in the financial rules of the game that allowed for reaptriation of captial without restrictions or questions, thus channeling narco-trafficking money through central bank coffers. Is this what you had in mind? Tom Tom Kruse / Casilla 5812 / Cochabamba, Bolivia Tel/Fax: (591-4) 248242 Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
