[PEN-L:296] BY THE END OF 1999, A RECESSION IN NORTH AMERICA?; Too Big ToFail?

1998-09-29 Thread Michael Eisenscher

THE GLOBE AND MAIL  MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 1998

BY THE END OF 1999, A RECESSION IN NORTH AMERICA?

The chief economist of RBC Dominion Securities 
blames flawed global financial markets

Taken from a speech delivered on Sept 24 at the annual 
dinner of the Toronto Society of Financial Analysts.

Paul Summerville

Not since 1929 has the world's financial system, and by implication the
global economy, been at such risk. In the last 12 months the risk premium
in the shares of financial institutions around the world has risen
dramatically. For example, the financial sector sub indice in Hong Kong is
down 52 per cent, in Tokyo 44 per cent, Toronto 42 per cent, Frankfurt 38,
London 36 and New York 32 per cent. Companies like Citicorp are down 52 per
cent, CIBC 50 per cent, Commerz [Germany] Bank 38, Barclays 35 and Royal
Bank 30 per cent.
I believe that the reason for this rout of I global financial sector
shares is that July, 1997, marked the end of an extraordinary eight year
period that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall. The devaluation of the
[Thai] baht [on July 2, 1997] marked the death knell of the widely held
view that American financial capitalism had won a permanent victory.
The belief that openness, transparency and the rule of law would be the
ongoing principles of global financial markets was obliterated with the
recognition that corruption, opaqueness and lawlessness are fundamentally a
part of how many countries, big and small, rich and poor, organize their
capital markets and their civil societies.
The new period we have entered is thus fraught with danger because there
is no overarching agreement on the best way to organize financial markets.
Witness Malaysia's capital controls, Hong Kong's and Japan's use of public
money to buy distressed stocks, and the emerging thesis that it was simply
the availability of global capital that has caused all the recent distress
instead of the existence of corrupt financial markets and regulators. The
new period is also fraught with danger because it necessarily implies a
brutal adjustment in the pricing of financial assets, with a punishing
impact on world economic growth.
I expect that the financial market excess and deteriorating credit quality
which has already caused so much economic pain in the world of late will
also have a pernicious impact on North America. I expect that by the end of
1999, the risk is that America will be in recession, accompanied by Canada,
because North American consumers are levered into a falling stock market
and companies have hired and invested for an economy that does not exist.
This is reflected in our exceptation that short term interest rates will
be slashed in the United States by 100 basis points and in Canada by at
least 175 basis points by December, 1999, and that long rates will follow.
The Canadian dollar will likely retrace its summer weakness against the
U.S. dollar as the economic consequences for Canada of a U.S. recession
become clear.
We can only hope that the obvious crisis in leadership in the world and
the narrow domestic agendas of scared politicians do not turn an almost
certain recession into a global depression. 



===

Bailout of a Big Failure Raises Big
Questions About Too-Big-to-Fail Policy

By Allan Sloan

Tuesday, September 29, 1998; Page E03 

For the past year, as markets from Thailand to Russia to
South Korea to Central America have taken it in the chops,
the United States has talked a good game about the evils
of crony capitalism. Our officials and financiers talk about
how letting impersonal market forces allocate capital is all
for the greater good. Thai peasants, Korean steelworkers
and Russian urbanites are suffering as financial crises
sweep their countries, but that's the price someone has to
pay to keep capital flowing. 

Then, what happens? Thanks to stupid investment
decisions, bad luck and dumb lenders, an enormous U.S.
hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management L.P. is
about to croak. But instead of letting it die and wipe out
its investors and managers, the Federal Reserve Board
orchestrates a rescue, and leading lights of the brokerage
and banking businesses kick in $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion to
keep the fund in operation. 

The argument, as you doubtless know by now, is that
letting Long-Term Capital go under could have led to a
financial panic, paralyzed bond markets all over the world,
and set off a domino effect as failing institutions dragged
one another into insolvency. That could well be right, and it
may well have made sense for the Fed to put the rescue
together. Certainly, the 14 institutions putting up those
billions to bail out Long-Term thought it was in their
interest to do so. 

But even if you think it was right to keep Long-Term
Capital from collapsing, there are aspects of the rescue
that should bother ev

[PEN-L:294] Ward Churchill on Cherokee slave-owners

1998-09-29 Thread Louis Proyect

Yes, well...

I, too, find the Lipsitz' idea of "currying favor" less than convincing.

But Ms. Meyer's complaint borders on the idiotic. What "terrible
stereotype" is at issue here? That Cherokees weren't just like white guys
(albeit a bit "culturally retarded")?

Methinks she needs to drop the "sympathetic" rhetorical veneer on her
namecalling and go have herself a quick enema. She'll feel lots better.

Meanwhile, at a somewhat more sihnificant level, she's trying to be
clever. Take her little demographic manipulation as an example. She says
"some" of the Cherokee elite were "mixed." The fact is that virtally ALL
the people in question were.

The reason for her curiously careful word choice is that she's trying to
make the institution of slavery seem as Cherokee as white. Wrong (but,
nice try, twit).

This is not a matter of genetics, but of acculturation. The mixed-blood
elite was raised white to a considerable extent. They weren't trying to
curry favor with whites so much as they were for all practical intents and
purposes trying to BE white.

Big difference.

The emergence of the mixed-cultural elite within Cherokee society had
effectively destroyed the functioning of traditional functioning of
Cherokee society quite a while before the struggle over Removal.

Hence, the phenomenon at issue is decisively NOT Cherokee. It is as much a
phenomenon of Euroamerica within the Cherokee Nation as it was without, no
matter how much Ms, Meyer would like it to have been otherwise.

While I'll aggre with her that the dynamics of all this were exccedingly
complex, and warrant a great deal more study, I wish  she'd stop using
that entirely reasonable proposition as a pretext for perpetuating
"terrible stereotypes."

Do feel free to quote from this and/or forward it to Meyer.

Meanwhile, we didn't really get to talk much after the gig was over, a
matter for which I'm sorry. Next time...



Louis Proyect
(http://www.panix.com/~lnp3/marxism.html)






[PEN-L:290] FW: FW: Sachs's G-16 proposal (Who is J. Sachs?)

1998-09-29 Thread Arno Mong Daastøl

-Original Message-
From:   [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
On Behalf Of James Farmelant
Sent:   Monday, September 21, 1998 9:54 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject:Re: FW: Sachs's G-16 proposal (Who is J. Sachs?)

On Mon, 21 Sep 1998 19:19:03 +0200 "=?iso-8859-1?Q?Arno_Mong_Daastøl?="
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
>Jonathan Larson has supplied this interesting background for Jeffrey
>Sachs' >new policies.
>
>
>-Original Message-
>
Over a couple of weeks ago Sachs was on NPR's The Chris Lydon Show to give
his mea culpae.  He admitted to making various errors but he also went on to
claim that he had been misunderstood.  And it appears that the list of
people who misunderstood him is quite a long one which includes among others
IMF officials, the Russians, and his various academic colleagues and critics
including especially Marshall Goldman.  This assertion puzzled me because
after all Sachs is a Harvard professor and presumably therefore a skilled
communicator.  He also went on to describe the corruption of the Yeltsin
government and he made it clear that it goes all the way to the very top and
he criticized the IMF and the US government for having ignored it until it
was too late.  He blamed the oligarchs for sabotaging market reforms and for
hijacking them to serve their own selfish interests.
If someone can get a hold of a transcript of Chris Lydon's interview of
Sachs it might be interesting to post it on this list.
Jim Farmelant

_
You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail.  Get
completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com Or call Juno at
(800) 654-JUNO [654-5866]






[PEN-L:292] California Dreamin

1998-09-29 Thread Max Sawicky

EPI is looking for a couple of stalwarts
on the Left Coast who feel inclined to
say unkind things about the flat tax being
proposed by Mr. Fong, the GOP candidate for
senate.

Please respond off-list to me at:

[EMAIL PROTECTED]

MBS






[PEN-L:291] Colombian workers plan new anti-austerity strike

1998-09-29 Thread Colombian Labor Monitor


 Visit the COLOMBIAN LABOR MONITOR at http://www.prairienet.org/clm

===
As with last week's strike, which virtually 
paralysed state-run hospitals, schools and 
other basic services for two days running, 
Borja said the new job action was aimed at 
forcing the government into revoking a 
fiscal adjustment programme due to take 
effect later this year.
_   ===
REUTERS

Monday, 28 September 1998


Colombian workers plan new anti-austerity strike



BOGOTA -- Colombia's public sector workers, fresh from a 48-hour strike 
last week, are preparing an indefinite, nationwide work stoppage to force 
the government into shelving its economic austerity plan, union leaders 
said on Monday.

Wilson Borja, head of the 700,000-member public sector union known as 
Fenaltrase, told Reuters in a phone interview no definitive strike 
deadline had been set yet.

But he said October 7 was the most likely start date, and it would be 
voted upon at a union meeting Wednesday.

As with last week's strike, which virtually paralysed state-run 
hospitals, schools and other basic services for two days running, Borja 
said the new job action was aimed at forcing the government into revoking 
a fiscal adjustment programme due to take effect later this year.

The programme is designed to close gaping budget deficits that President 
Andres Pastrana inherited from the discredited administration of his 
predecessor, former president Ernesto Samper, when he took office last month.

But Borja and other labour leaders say it calls for too many sacrifices 
from Colombia's working-class, which is already burdened with 
double-digit inflation,  soaring unemployment and interest rates, and 
steadily eroding wages.

``The strike is because of the fiscal adjustment,'' he said, adding that 
the austerity measures planned by Pastrana's government represented ``an 
assault against all Colombians.''

Borja said he recognised the need to address the fiscal imbalances and 
economic crisis that were part of Samper's legacy to Pastrana.

But he said measures planned by Finance Minister  Juan Camilo Restrepo 
--including strict wage controls and a broad-based increase in the range 
of products and services subject to Colombia's onerous value-added tax-- 
sought to ram austerity down the throats of people already on the brink 
of poverty and serious social unrest.

``You can't solve a crisis by beating up on everyone,'' Borja said. 
``Sacrifices should only be made by those who are able to make them.''

As with last week's strike, the indefinite work stoppage would be backed 
by Colombia's militant state oil workers' union, known as USO.

But unlike last week, oil workers would seek to disrupt production the 
next time they downed tools, according to Cesar Carrillo, one of the 
USO's top bosses and a veteran labour activist.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited
___
***
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***






[PEN-L:293] .25

1998-09-29 Thread Tom Walker

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Al, you're such a card!

Regards, 

Tom Walker
^^^
#408 1035 Pacific St.
Vancouver, B.C.
V6E 4G7
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
(604) 669-3286 
^^^
The TimeWork Web: http://www.vcn.bc.ca/timework/






[PEN-L:288] Russia: Peppered Vodka - New(?) Cure

1998-09-29 Thread Gregory Schwartz

First they (the Western pharmaceutical companies) poison people
world-wide with their drugs, producing acute dependence, obliterating
generations of accumulated knowledge concerning natural medicines, all
under the rubric of promoting 'advanced' health care (as though
headaches or colds required surgery), not to mention that despicable
appeal to our empathy through (insulting) cultural platitudes in the
form of "World Children's Fund", etc.. Then, when you've run out of
money, all of a sudden it's 'the bottom line'; no more talk of the
benevolence and the virtuous metropolitanism of 'Western civilization'.

Thankfully for the Russian workers, they have not been under the 'aegis'
of the West for too long and have retained some traditional medicinal
practices.

Cheers,
Greg

**
Peppered Vodka -- One Way to Replace Vanishing Western Drugs

MOSCOW -- (Agence France Presse) Russians will soon be forced to return
to the home cures of their grandmothers to replace the foreign drugs
which have become well nigh impossible to find since the devaluation of
the ruble in mid-August.

"Do you still have Upsa aspirin?. ... And no Coldrex either?" The
pharmacies of Moscow have been under siege since the first weeks of the
crisis and stocks have run out.

Sales have increased by up to 500 percent, such as in Nizhny Novgorod on
the banks of the Volga, the daily newspaper Kommersant reported.

Analgesics, anti-inflammatory and anti-viral medicines were the first to
go.

"If you have caught a cold, put mustard powder in woolen socks at night
and it will go away," a Muscovite woman advised another as they stood in
front of a shop window displaying only a few bottles of Russian and
foreign medicines.

"Even better, drink a glass of vodka with pepper and honey, like people
used to do. Personally, I drink it hot and say goodbye to a cold," a
pensioner advised.

The media has also produced time-honored recipes for grandmothers'
herbal teas which can help cure illness.

Diabetics have exhausted the stocks of insulin in the Altai region in
western Siberia, and the pharmacists of Volgograd are already sounding
the alarm bells: their stocks will run out in a week.

Many hospitals that are short of drugs, including the prestigious
Central Kremlin Hospital in Moscow, are asking their patients to bring
their own remedies with them.

The hospital in Stavropol in the northern Caucasus announced the
suspension of all surgery because of a shortage of drugs, the Izvestiya
daily newspaper revealed last week. The central hospital of the Kurgan
region in Siberia only has 15 percent of the drugs it requested.

"The patients of regional hospitals have flooded us with complaints of
this kind," said Health Ministry spokesman Vladimir Vyunitsky.

"We cannot do anything about it because it is the regional authorities
who distribute the grants which we send out. The hospitals are not
obliged to inform us of their reserves. Sometimes they resell them on
the black market," he added.

Russians, especially the seriously ill, had grown used to an abundance
of Western drugs, previously reserved to the Communist elite, and can no
longer imagine life without them.

But the collapse of the ruble, which has dropped in value by about 60
percent since August, has ruined half of the estimated 3,500
distributing companies, with the rest forced to suspend their purchases
abroad.

The 20 main Russian distributors have survived, but have increased the
prices of foreign drugs by as much as 200 percent and Russian products
by up to 100 percent.

Experts are already predicting that the foreign drug market -- more than
70 percent of the total market -- will be reduced five or six times as a
result of the financial crisis, said Vyunitsky.

As for the small number of home-produced products, they are often made
with imported raw materials and they are also likely to become more
scarce, according to the weekly Diengui (Money) magazine.

"It takes three or four months to launch the production line of a new
drug. The pharmacies will be totally empty well before that. And you
need credits to buy raw materials and machinery. But Russian banks are
paralyzed and Western banks refuse to give credits to Russian debtors,"
said Mikhail Groshenkov, the director of Russian pharmaceutical company
Farmatsentr.

To limit buying, the Ministry of Health is already preparing to stop 16
million low-income Russians from obtaining the reduced prices which they
enjoy for pharmaceutical products.

These people -- including pensioners, the disabled and war veterans --
have until now made up the 20 million people, or 14 percent of the
population, who consumed between 70 and 80 percent of the drugs sold in
Russia, according to Kommersant. ( (c) 1998 Agence France Presse)

--
Gregory Schwartz
Department of Political Science
York University
4700 Keele St.
Toronto, Ontario
M3J 1P3
Canada

Tel: (416) 736-5265
Fax: (416) 736-5686
Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci






[PEN-L:285] BLS Daily Report

1998-09-29 Thread Richardson_D

This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand
this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.

-- =_NextPart_000_01BDEBB3.CD678390
charset="iso-8859-1"

BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 1998

U.S. manufacturing productivity growth in 1997 was slower than in five
of nine economies studied by BLS, the agency reports. ... (Daily Labor
Report, page D-7).

Consumer spending bounced back at a healthy clip in August, and
Americans' personal income rose 0.5 percent, the Bureau of Economic
Analysis of the Department of Commerce reports.  The spending rebound -
a 0.6 percent increase - was expected after the General Motors strike
and related shutdowns left retailers short of vehicles in July.  BEA
reported that the major contributor to the 0.6 percent rise in consumer
expenditures during August was a jump in durable goods purchases, mainly
autos. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; New York Times, Sept. 26, page
B14)_The global financial crisis takes little toll on U.S. consumer
spending.  Americans might not be shopping quite as freely as they did
earlier this year, but they're still going fairly strong.  But if U.S.
businesses stumble badly enough and long enough as a result of these
global problems, it will eventually hurt the consumers they employ and
serve, said an analyst of the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi in New York. ...
(Wall Street Journal, page A2).  

Ever since Fed Chairman Greenspan broadly hinted last week at an
interest rate cut, markets have treated a reduction as a near certainly
when the Fed's policymakers meet tomorrow.  An easing of monetary policy
would mark a swift and amazing turnaround in the central bank's
fundamental economic outlook.  For well over a year, the Fed's greatest
concern has been inflation, not recession.  Why would the Fed ease?  The
new dynamic since the summer has been continued deterioration in Asia's
economies and the disease's spread in Russia and Latin America, which
take more than 15 percent of U.S. exports. So far there has been minimal
concrete evidence of a slowdown in the U.S., mainly a slump in
manufacturing and a drop in corporate profits.  But some early warning
signs of deeper damage may be flashing, such as hints of eroding
business and consumer confidence, especially as the stock market slumps.
There are also fears of a looming credit contraction in the U.S. -
signaled by rising rates on junk bonds in recent weeks, and warnings by
some banks of plans to curb lending. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2).


The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" predicts that
the unemployment rate for September, due out Friday, will be the same as
the unemployment rate for August and that nonfarm payrolls will increase
by 210,000, compared with 365,000 in August.


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[PEN-L:289] Re: Russia: Peppered Vodka - New(?) Cure

1998-09-29 Thread Michael Perelman

This shortage of drugs is serious stuff for all of us.  NPR [I confess, that
i sometimes listen] had a report that the shortage is forcing Russian
prisons to keep shifting their drug regimins.  As a result, they give just
enough for a disease to build up a resistents to a drug, shift to another,
until you get something resistant to most drugs.  However, the diseases are
more difficult to incarcerate than the prisoners.
--

Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Chico, CA 95929
530-898-5321
fax 530-898-5901






[PEN-L:284] American Indian "specialist" warns me to butt out

1998-09-29 Thread Louis Proyect

I seem to have stirred up a hornet's nest over on the H-AMINDIAN mailing
list with my citation from George Lipsitz to the effect that Cherokee
enslavement of blacks was tantamount to other forms of racially oppressed
groups currying favor with the dominant white capitalist powers. They would
prefer, it seems, to entertain a notion of Cherokees as being powers to be
reckoned with, rather than as pitiful pawns in the race game. 

No amount of "specialist" research will ever convince me of this. When I
discussed this with my old friend who is part Cherokee himself and a civil
rights activist from the 1960s, he said that this was news to him but it
didn't really surprise him. After all, he said, Creoles kept black slaves
themselves. For a study of these sorts of contradictions, I recommend Jelly
Roll Morton's autobiography, which was filled with open loathing of his
pure-blood African cousins.

I suspect that this American Indian studies is filled with all sorts of
reactionaries who ended up in the field as a way to advance their career.
Perhaps there are more job openings in American Indians studies than in
plain vanilla American History.

I'll stick around this H-AMINDIAN list until they decide to censor me
outright. There's nothing I love better than speaking truth to power.

Here is a post from somebody who lectures me for having the nerve to
participate on the topic of Cherokees and slavery. It reeks of Mandarin
snobbery.



This is interesting.  I have never posted a response that generated so much
response in itself.  I have received congratulations from friends I haven't
seen since my 6 year old daughter was born.

Let me say to those asking questions (especially Brian Shields) that the
history has not been written.  Cherokee history is especially ripe for
someone with the perspective of a social historian to assemble the
plentiful documents and interpret them. What happened to the Cherokees'
matrilineal society?  We have only sketchy material.  But I do recommend
Theda Perdue's new monograph, _Cherokee Women: Gender and Culture Change,
1700-1835_ (1998).  These are exactly the sorts of questions scholars
should ask.

What I hope is apparent is that outside scholars without meaningful
research experience had better tread lightly in areas that are not of their
own specialization.  I certainly do.  I would never dream of stating
anything so definitive unless I had fully digested a whole lot of secondary
literature.

Allow the Cherokee and all other native people to be people---not exemplars
of any ideals that others have constructed. If subscribers wish for a list
of relevant and cutting-edge scholarship, let everyone help.

Melissa Meyer
University of California, Los Angeles

Louis Proyect

(http://www.panix.com/~lnp3/marxism.html)






[PEN-L:283] Re: German SDP II

1998-09-29 Thread valis

...
> > How big is the "left" of the SDP? 
...
> The answer[], based on what I saw of the Soc Dems on my European tour,
> [is] "large but powerless" (the rank and file SPD and most ordinary Germans 
> loathe capitalism, but don't realize their leaders are selling them out),
 

Good to see you back, Dennis.  How about expanding on both clauses of the
parenthetic comment above.  Bully on die deutsche for loathing capitalism,
but the why of it certainly calls for a few paragraphs, no?  Will we find 
them decked out in Frankish regalia after the sale is consummated?
Goodbye European revolution, if that's to be the case. 

> Germany voted against neoliberalism, but that's not -- yet -- the
> same thing as reining in Eurocapitalism. For once, the tired cliche is
> right: the class struggle is indeed heating up in Mitteleuropa.

NPR's Talk of the Nation ("nation": another somebody who slept through
Anthro 01) had a show on the election yesterday.  At the very end a caller 
asked whether there was a conscious pattern to European voting over the 
past year or so.  Robert von Rimscha of Berlin's Tagesspiegel simply said
Of course: the Europeans want protection from the shocks of globalization,
so they are electing left-center governments.
Although this is cosmic genius relative to American couch potatoes and
their regular world perspectives, I see in such a view - if accurate - 
only expedient class collaboration by peoples strong enough to shield 
themselves but not willing to attack the storm.
Will all this action ultimately go to waste or worse?

   valis