Le Pen triumph thanks to ultra-leftists
Time to read Dimitrov! The danger of fascism remains everywhere under conditions of bourgeois democracy. Not just in abstract. People get killed. The whole political spectrum lurches to the right. As the arithmetic shows, groups to the left of Jospin (who was not particularly 'Third Way' compared to Blair and Schroeder) appealed to 14% of the voters. They were dominated by Trotskyists, who are not interested in how to win an electoral majority against the right. Jospin was only a few percent behind Chirac. But why should ultra-leftists stoop to consider electoral arithmetic! Their only goal is to prove themselves more correct than the next group. The fruits of sectarianism! As Lenin pointed out to the lovers of ostentation, one must be able to calculate the relation of forces and not help the imperialists make the war against socialism easier for them. But our 'Left' Communists - who are also fond of calling themselves 'proletarian' Communists, although there is very little that is proletarian about them and very much that is petty-bourgeois - are incapable of giving thought to the relation of forces, the calculation of the relation of forces. This is the main point in Marxism and Marxian tactics. (Left Wing Childishness and Petty-Bourgeois Mentality. May 1918) People will die from attacks by the right as a result of this idealism. Chris Burford At 21/04/02 19:16 -0400, Shane wrote: The French presidential election's first round today produced a catastrophic result for the traditional parties of the Left. Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin got fewer than 16% of the vote, 1.5 points less than the fascistic nationalist Jean-Marie Le Pen and 4 points behind Chirac. Eliminated from the May 5 runoff ballot (only the top two from the first round stay on the ballot), Jospin announced his withdrawal from political life. The French Communist Party's leader, Robert Hue, got a minuscule 3.5%, a fitting reward for his consistent support for Jospin's centrist policies throughout the five-year rule of the Gauche Plurielle cabinet. In contrast, the three Trotskyist candidates got more than 11% of the vote-about 6.5% for Arlette Laguiller (Lutte Ouvrière), 4.5% for Olivier Bésancenot (Ligue Communiste Révolutionnaire) and 0.5% for Daniel Gluckstein (Parti des Travailleurs). The other two major leftist candidates, Noel Mamere (Verts) and Jean-Pierre Chévenement (Mouvement des Citoyens) each got slightly more than 5%, while Christiane Taubira (Radicaux de Gauche) less than 2%. The lesson of this electoral disaster is clear--the immediate need for the broadest United Front of the Left on the basis of a militant, aggressive program. There must be no rallying behind Chirac to block Le Pen. That would be like supporting Hindenburg to block Hitler. The alternative is union behind a write-in candidate for the second round, whether or not French electoral law permits such votes to be counted. The indicated, indeed the only thinkable, candidate is José Bové, who is not only a principled, militant, totally independent leftist, but also, and by far, the most popular political figure in France. Bové might well win a majority on May 5, and in any case would be positioned to lead a united Left to victory over the discredited Chiraquiens in the June parliamentary elections and thus force the resignation of Chirac (whatever happens, Le Pen will certainly not be elected on May 5). But there is no time at all for delay. The French Left must pick itself up off the floor and get back in the ring within the next two or three days. Victory is more than possible, but not if *anyone's* sectarian posing gets in the way. Shane Mage Thunderbolt steers all things. Herakleitos of Ephesos, fr. 64
SDR's for developing countries
From Saturday's IMF press conference:- QUESTION: [inaudible]...have suggested that it is time to resume the allocation of special drawing rights. The G-24 also made a proposal that the rich countries should allocate their portion of the [inaudible] SDRs into a special fund for development. I wonder whether you would comment on both of these aspects. Mr. Brown: The first issue was raised by the G-24, but it wasn't possible to discuss that today. On the second issue, this is the proposal that some people, including George Soros, have put forward about the use of special drawing rights. This is a debate that will continue. I think, however, the important thing is that there are additional resources for the development of the economies and the societies of the poorest countries. Chris Burford
Re: Le Pen triumph thanks to ultra-leftists
Not so, but because the sort of left opportunism and disguised imperialism that Jospin's politics represents could drive france further to the right and to the left_ polarisation. also because french imperial interests abroad are undermined by the US. and because of a litany of reasons least of which is the ultra left. --- Chris Burford [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Time to read Dimitrov! The danger of fascism remains everywhere under conditions of bourgeois democracy. Not just in abstract. People get killed. The whole political spectrum lurches to the right. As the arithmetic shows, groups to the left of Jospin (who was not particularly 'Third Way' compared to Blair and Schroeder) appealed to 14% of the voters. They were dominated by Trotskyists, who are not interested in how to win an electoral majority against the right. Jospin was only a few percent behind Chirac. But why should ultra-leftists stoop to consider electoral arithmetic! Their only goal is to prove themselves more correct than the next group. The fruits of sectarianism! As Lenin pointed out to the lovers of ostentation, one must be able to calculate the relation of forces and not help the imperialists make the war against socialism easier for them. But our 'Left' Communists - who are also fond of calling themselves 'proletarian' Communists, although there is very little that is proletarian about them and very much that is petty-bourgeois - are incapable of giving thought to the relation of forces, the calculation of the relation of forces. This is the main point in Marxism and Marxian tactics. (Left Wing Childishness and Petty-Bourgeois Mentality. May 1918) People will die from attacks by the right as a result of this idealism. Chris Burford At 21/04/02 19:16 -0400, Shane wrote: The French presidential election's first round today produced a catastrophic result for the traditional parties of the Left. Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin got fewer than 16% of the vote, 1.5 points less than the fascistic nationalist Jean-Marie Le Pen and 4 points behind Chirac. Eliminated from the May 5 runoff ballot (only the top two from the first round stay on the ballot), Jospin announced his withdrawal from political life. The French Communist Party's leader, Robert Hue, got a minuscule 3.5%, a fitting reward for his consistent support for Jospin's centrist policies throughout the five-year rule of the Gauche Plurielle cabinet. In contrast, the three Trotskyist candidates got more than 11% of the vote-about 6.5% for Arlette Laguiller (Lutte Ouvrière), 4.5% for Olivier Bésancenot (Ligue Communiste Révolutionnaire) and 0.5% for Daniel Gluckstein (Parti des Travailleurs). The other two major leftist candidates, Noel Mamere (Verts) and Jean-Pierre Chévenement (Mouvement des Citoyens) each got slightly more than 5%, while Christiane Taubira (Radicaux de Gauche) less than 2%. The lesson of this electoral disaster is clear--the immediate need for the broadest United Front of the Left on the basis of a militant, aggressive program. There must be no rallying behind Chirac to block Le Pen. That would be like supporting Hindenburg to block Hitler. The alternative is union behind a write-in candidate for the second round, whether or not French electoral law permits such votes to be counted. The indicated, indeed the only thinkable, candidate is José Bové, who is not only a principled, militant, totally independent leftist, but also, and by far, the most popular political figure in France. Bové might well win a majority on May 5, and in any case would be positioned to lead a united Left to victory over the discredited Chiraquiens in the June parliamentary elections and thus force the resignation of Chirac (whatever happens, Le Pen will certainly not be elected on May 5). But there is no time at all for delay. The French Left must pick itself up off the floor and get back in the ring within the next two or three days. Victory is more than possible, but not if *anyone's* sectarian posing gets in the way. Shane Mage Thunderbolt steers all things. Herakleitos of Ephesos, fr. 64 __ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Games - play chess, backgammon, pool and more http://games.yahoo.com/
Le Pen triumph thanks to ultra-leftists
G'day Ali, Sabri and Chris, Quoth Ali, Not so, but because the sort of left opportunism and disguised imperialism that Jospin's politics represents could drive france further to the right and to the left_ polarisation. also because french imperial interests abroad are undermined by the US. and because of a litany of reasons least of which is the ultra left. I think Ali is importantly right, Chris, and am with Sabri in thinking this interesting development connotes a legitimacy crisis for mainstream social democracy du jour. I agree with Chris that Jospin's mob are less the outrageous turd wayists that, say, Tory Blur's syrupy suitstaffels are (and even they are finding themselves forced to try to disarm the LibDems by raising taxes for health insurance and care, and in a moment when future economic growth is a moot proposition, too), but the fact of the matter is a true social democrat can't do true social democracy unless his/her political constituency comprises an effective economic unit. In Europe, we have a regional economic unit made up of a plethora of nation-states, and that ultimately doesn't cut the mustard. I'm not sure Europe is ready to become a political unit (indeed doubt it, as I've come to doubt any medium-term triumph for reason - still: pessimism of the intellect; optimism of the will, eh?), but its nation-statelets will be in legitimation crisis until it does. Jospin's defeat is a function not of apathetic voters, to my mind, but of voters who no longer see a natural link between the polling booth and anythjing they might mean by 'democracy'. Such crises beget low turn-outs and a polarisation among those who do take the trouble to vote. On a notional 'two-party-preferred' rule, the left did quite well, but sans a preferential system, that doesn't get to express itself until next a PM is elected. I'm of the feeling the next PM is likely to be from Jospin's party, given the circumstances ... but that won't solve the institutional problem at hand, of course. I tend to side with Habermas on the 'Social Democracy of Europe' idea, but, just because it is currently urgently necessary, doesn't mean it'll happen ... Cheers, Rob.
Le Pen triumph thanks to ultra-leftists
Oh, and I think a presidential election in which half the country's voters don't get to express themselves might be a good chance to get preferential voting up. The spontaneous demonstrations in French cities that are under way as we speak must be channelled to some good purpose, surely? If it ain't, the legitimacy crisis will be all the more traumatic, because I doubt the citoyens will take as readily to being steam-rolled as the ever-bemusing American 'electorate'. Cheers, Rob.
Re: The political economy of indigenous societies
At 09:56 AM 4/22/2002 +0530, D.Parthasarathy wrote: An Australian aboriginal scholar had exactly the same perspective on the coups in Fiji against democratically elected governments. Since the governments were led by people of Indian origin, and the coups were accompanied by attacks on them, most people assumed ethnic differences at the heart of the conflict. However the people of Indian origin also were rooted in a profit and export oriented economy based on land alienation and impoverishment of the 'indigenous' Fijians. The coups enjoyed popular support therefore because they promosed a return to a different kind of (non-capitalist) economy. This was the gist of the analysis that I got. I agree. I wrote this during the recent crisis: Background on ethnic conflict in Fiji I have spent a fair amount of time over the past week or so trying to unearth Marxist or radical scholarship on Fiji. Among the scanty contributions that fall in this category, there are few that I consider truly sympathetic to the Fijian point of view. Most accounts, especially the articles contained in Bulletin of Concerned Asian Scholars, tend to view all expressions of Fijian nationalism as deeply retrograde. In order to legitimize this position, it becomes necessary to soften the impact of British colonialism. By making the role of the British less cruel than it was in, for example, China or India, the militancy of the Fiji people seems more unreasonable by comparison. If you look at the 1988 article in the Bulletin by Stephanie Hagan titled Race, Politics, and the Coup in Fiji, you will discover that Sir Arthur Gordon had different motives than other colonial administrators. She quotes Gordon as coming to the islands with the idea that he had a divine mission to make the islands an exception to the dismal history of colonialism. His interpretation of the Deed of Cession, which established the Crown ownership of the island and all who lived on it, led to the paramountcy of Fijian interests. In an act of generosity and postcolonial wisdom, Gordon reserved most of the land for the Fijians. This, more or less, is the standard left interpretation of British relationship to the indigenous population. Turning to Deryck Scarr's Fiji: A Short History, we learn about some of the more pecuniary considerations underpinning Gordon's colonial administration. Basically, the 'natives' were seen as a supplier of food to the rest of the population and of export goods like copra. In order to expedite their role as agricultural petty producers, the British kept the traditional villages intact. With these structures in place, the chiefs began to function as middlemen. Not only were the small peasants producers for the town, they also paid taxes to keep the colonial administration going. Although some tax revenue was allocated for native benefits like churches (which would assure their happiness in heaven), most went into general revenue, about 100,000 pounds a year by 1900. Despite their insertion into commodity production, the Fijians were never completely integrated as a true bourgeoisie. Traditional relationships, based on the feudal chieftans, undermined the ability to extract profit. A chieftan sought only to extract enough value off the top to maintain a life-style. The notion of revolutionizing the means of production was the last thing in his mind. As Scarr puts it: The level of production was the basic issue. As with most peasant cultures, the Fijian household functioned below capacity, its labour intensity varying inversely with labour capacity; the chiefly function, often validating the decisions of household heads, was to galvanise additional production for surplus. The colonial government had come in at the chiefly level; the Governor was formally installed as supreme chief, was accorded the 'tama' and received first fruits. Although the colonial regime had the option of endorsing the mere household subsistence level with its ready corollary, plantation labour for cash needs, to oblige the white community, it made a value judgement in favour of the more politically dangerous alternative. Native Regulation No. 5 of 1877, for instance, was always being attacked as extremely paternalistic; it prescribed the exact minimum each head of household must plant for his dependants subsistence; it was intended to provide a surplus, and was an idea borrowed from Tonga. The other question worth considering is the degree to which the modern Labour movement in Fiji is an outgrowth of Gandhism. Reading Scarr leaves one with the impression that Gandhi had much more of an impact on Indian radicalism on the island than Marx or the Soviet Union. What Gandhi offered his brethren was an uncompromising struggle against second class citizenship. The fight was basically between the British and the Indian, whose sense of 'Izzat' (honour) was being violated on a daily basis. To redeem his humanity and to have full rights as a citizen was the main
Re: Le Pen triumph thanks to ultra-leftists
Chris Burford: Time to read Dimitrov! For PEN-L'ers who are not up on Communist Party history, Dmitrov was the head of the Comintern in the late 30s. His contribution to revolutionary strategy was the People's Front that advocated electoral blocs between socialist and capitalist parties. It lead to setbacks everywhere. Carrying out the sort of tepid reformism characteristic of the Peoples Front, the socialist Jospin has done little to distinguish himself from the bourgeois politicians, so no wonder many workers decided to stay home. During the Spanish civil war in the 1930s, the Spanish Jospins effectively sabotaged a working-class revolution by failing to carry out radical land reform and other important egalitarian economic measures. In France, Leon Blum's Popular Front was just as ineffective. The danger of fascism remains everywhere under conditions of bourgeois democracy. This is true. But to fight fascism effectively, you need to have an aroused working-class movement. Tieing the trade unions to third way type politicians, a contemporary version of the Peoples Front, only breeds apathy. Against this apathy, the rightwing can make headway. Financial Times (London), March 19, 2002 MANIFESTO LAUNCH MAIN PARTIES' OFFERINGS APPEAR SIMILAR: By ROBERT GRAHAM DATELINE: PARIS Lionel Jospin, France's Socialist prime minister, yesterday pledged to create 900,000 jobs and to deliver Euros 18bn (Dollars 16bn, Pounds 11bn) in tax cuts over the next five years, should he win the presidential elections. But a 40-page election manifesto unveiled by Mr Jospin at his campaign headquarters in Paris yesterday gave little indication of how the measures could be financed within the constraints of deficit reduction targets agreed with the European Commission. Instead, he laid emphasis on ensuring the French economy achieved an annual growth rate of 3 per cent. The first round of the presidential elections takes place on April 21, with a second round run-off between the two leading candidates due on May 5. The publication of Mr Jospin's manifesto, entitled I Commit Myself, comes after President Jacques Chirac outlined his rival programme, called Commitment to France, last week. The most striking aspect of the two main presidential rivals' proposals is the absence of big differences. On the central campaign issue of law and order, the two are almost embarrassingly similar, with each camp already accusing the other of electoral plagiarism. Mr Jospin has all but dropped the word socialism in a clear attempt to win the centre-ground by avoiding identification as the Socialist party's candidate. The main area where the two programmes diverge is how to sustain growth. Mr Chirac has made promises of reducing labour cost overheads by cutting employers' social security contributions and easing the burden of the 35-hour week for small businesses. He hopes to persuade business to resume investing while encouraging consumption through promises of big tax cuts. He is committed to reducing income tax by one-third by 2007. Yesterday, Mr Jospin also said he wanted to see a cut in income tax while aligning France with the rest of the EU through the introduction of income tax at source. He said the tax cuts would be financed largely through increases in capital gains charges. In addition, the premier pledged to halve the household property tax (taxe d'habitation). This reform was promised under his outgoing administration but was dropped for fear of upsetting middle-class voters. It would involve a big overhaul of property register values and shift the burden of the tax from low-income to high-income groups. On job creation, both men have committed themselves to schemes to permit training throughout a person's working life. But Mr Jospin has distinguished himself by a plan to bring 200,000 people aged over 50 back into work through special contracts. France lags behind its EU partners in bringing this age group into the workforce and the scheme compares with the huge effort devoted to providing youth jobs in the public sector since 1997. Mr Chirac suggested the introduction of a scheme to allow those under 25 to be subsidised to find a vocation or help in humanitarian work. To get round the high cost of hiring unskilled labour, the main pool of jobless in France, he proposed special contracts for those aged under 22 where employers would be exempt of social security contributions. Louis Proyect Marxism mailing list: http://www.marxmail.org
The Spirit Of Le Pen in Oz
G'day Penfolk, Just been watching some footage the national public service broadcaster must've acquired quietly from a human being within the private enterprise incarceration firm that 'looks after' middle-eastern refugees who manage actually to get to Australia. As a reward for escaping oppression that has killed their kith and kin, for standing against the very forces the Australian government wars against, and for navigating treacherous seas on even more treacherous conveyances just to get to us, we lock 'em up in cells in desert concentration camps, break up social groups, disallow communication with the outside world, disallow Australian citizens to witness what is being done in their name (for it is explicit government orders to military, defence department and incarceration service that no portrayal that 'humanises' the refugees may be released), brutalise the children, and slam dissentors into isolation cells. After a few months, men begin to bang their heads against walls and doors until the blood covers their faces, while others lapse into catatonic states so severe we see their comrades mourn them in the belief they are dead, and others, crying uncontrollably and locked rigidly into foetal position are summarily dragged out and left in the sun. The healthier ones try a riot every now and then, in the hope someone will come to listen and to explain, and we find out that one, a man who we see cry out repeatedly that his heart has been broken, is now doing five years for rioting. I hope you see this footage over the next few hours. If you don't, be assured I don't do it justice. It is gut-wrenchingly obscene and it is us. Yours whatever, Rob.
The Blame Game
If all the energy going into condemning Greens, Trots, and what-not was devoted to thinking how the moderate left could fashion a stable, governing, productive majority, it might just happen. In the end, Gore and Jospin, despite huge advantages in money and media coverage relative to their left gadflies, could not persuade enough people to vote for them. The elections were theirs to lose. If voting for them is such a moral and practical imperative, if the case is so compelling, how come it doesn't pan out? The onus is on them and nobody else. They had the platform and they blew it. And to anyone who kvetches, YOU blew it. Nobody ever got votes by being a moral scold, whether it's Al G's boyz warning of the dangers of the GOP, or Jesse J. trying to sell his own unique claim to conscience. If you don't know that, you need to review politics 101. Look in the mirror. A neglected factor is that those who control the Dems et al. would rather retain control of a losing party than lose control of a winning party. mbs
Alabama offers union-free auto plant for Hyundai
Globalization strikes home. Hyundai's unions formed the core of the militant Korean Confederation of Trade Unions. TS Labor Proposal Tipped Scales for Hyundai Alabama Plant Chosun Ilbo (South Korea's most conservative newspaper) April 22 Hyundai Motor was found to have chosen Alabama as the site for its first production plant in the United States after the state government made a guarantee that there would be no labor union in the plant. An executive at the largest Korean automaker said Sunday that his company had been leaning toward a site in Kentucky up until a week prior to the final selection, as the state provided easier access to component markets and boasted cooler temperatures. He said that the top management of Hyundai, however, ended up going with Alabama as the state government's proposal of preventing the formation of a labor union at the plant was too good an offer to pass up. According to an official of the Alabama government, the state did not opt for the union shop system for its corporate labor sector and, as such, labor activities are mild in the state. In Kentucky, however, union shops are permitted. (Kim Jong-ho, [EMAIL PROTECTED])
Re: The Blame Game
Could the French election represent the end of the turd way, as Rob called it? Could it lead to more energetic organization? What does the rise in the non-voters mean? How much to the right of Gore is Chirac? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
RE: Re: Le Pen triumph thanks to ultra-leftists
Louis writes:Carrying out the sort of tepid reformism characteristic of the Peoples Front, the socialist Jospin has done little to distinguish himself from the bourgeois politicians, so no wonder many workers decided to stay home. I agree. I doubt that the Trotskyists in France got the votes they did because of their ability to engage in electoral campaigns. If Chris Burford is right that they are sectarians, they probably drive people away. But Jospin drives them to protest-voting. Some of that redounds to the left's benefit. If anyone is to be blamed for the relative success of the extreme left, it's the voters. If anyone is to be blamed for their votes for the left (and for Le Pen), it's Jospin. Here in the United States, where the meaninglessness of voting has attained a high degree, there's a saying that If given the choice between voting for a Republican and a Democrat acting like a Republican, I'll go for the real thing. That's the sort of logic that drives people away from Jospin -- and toward Chirac, Le Pen, and the left. JD
Re: Re: The Blame Game
Michael Perelman asks: ...How much to the right of Gore is Chirac? -- By American standards, Chirac is clearly to the left of Gore. Shane Mage
Re: Re: Re: The Blame Game
Michael Perelman asks: ...How much to the right of Gore is Chirac? -- By American standards, Chirac is clearly to the left of Gore. Shane Mage That's true. Additionally, there is very little difference between Chirac's party ant the Socialist one, but the ways of doing the same politics that can be summarized by one word: Maastricht. That is to say the suppression of budget deficit, that is to say suppression of growth in order to fight inflation (inflation rate being limited to 2%). But even communists and Trotskysts dont say any word about that (communists regularly vote a Maastrichtian budget every year at National Assembly). Only two men have explicitely condemned Maastricht politiccs during the campaign. One is Chevènement who is an authentic Gaullist leftist (having resigned from his defence ministryship in desagreement with bombing of Irak). The second one is Le Pen. Chevènement was not listen from the left, which is now moaning and demonstrating, but without realizing its fault. French people who voted for Le Pen have not become fascists, they only refuse Maastricht and capitalist Globalization. RK
Re: Re: Re: The Blame Game
La Lettre de l'irép n° 11, 22-04-02 __ http://www.edu-irep.org - Un judéo-nazisme est-il possible? Ou: de l'urgence de comprendre Auschwitz Is a Judaeo-Nazim possible? Or: of the urgency of understanding auschwitz http://www.edu-irep.org/forum_6.htm irép BP 26 94267 Fresnes Cedex France _ tél/fax: 33 1 4091 9997
US involvement in Venezuela Coup
Venezuela coup linked to Bush team Specialists in the 'dirty wars' of the Eighties encouraged the plotters who tried to topple President Chavez Observer Worldview Ed Vulliamy in New York Sunday April 21, 2002 The Observer The failed coup in Venezuela was closely tied to senior officials in the US government, The Observer has established. They have long histories in the 'dirty wars' of the 1980s, and links to death squads working in Central America at that time. Washington's involvement in the turbulent events that briefly removed left-wing leader Hugo Chavez from power last weekend resurrects fears about US ambitions in the hemisphere. It also also deepens doubts about policy in the region being made by appointees to the Bush administration, all of whom owe their careers to serving in the dirty wars under President Reagan. One of them, Elliot Abrams, who gave a nod to the attempted Venezuelan coup, has a conviction for misleading Congress over the infamous Iran-Contra affair. The Bush administration has tried to distance itself from the coup. It immediately endorsed the new government under businessman Pedro Carmona. But the coup was sent dramatically into reverse after 48 hours. Now officials at the Organisation of American States and other diplomatic sources, talking to The Observer, assert that the US administration was not only aware the coup was about to take place, but had sanctioned it, presuming it to be destined for success. The visits by Venezuelans plotting a coup, including Carmona himself, began, say sources, 'several months ago', and continued until weeks before the putsch last weekend. The visitors were received at the White House by the man President George Bush tasked to be his key policy-maker for Latin America, Otto Reich. Reich is a right-wing Cuban-American who, under Reagan, ran the Office for Public Diplomacy. It reported in theory to the State Department, but Reich was shown by congressional investigations to report directly to Reagan's National Security Aide, Colonel Oliver North, in the White House. North was convicted and shamed for his role in Iran-Contra, whereby arms bought by busting US sanctions on Iran were sold to the Contra guerrillas and death squads, in revolt against the Marxist government in Nicaragua. Reich also has close ties to Venezuela, having been made ambassador to Caracas in 1986. His appointment was contested both by Democrats in Washington and political leaders in the Latin American country. The objections were overridden as Venezuela sought access to the US oil market. Reich is said by OAS sources to have had 'a number of meetings with Carmona and other leaders of the coup' over several months. The coup was discussed in some detail, right down to its timing and chances of success, which were deemed to be excellent. On the day Carmona claimed power, Reich summoned ambassadors from Latin America and the Caribbean to his office. He said the removal of Chavez was not a rupture of democra tic rule, as he had resigned and was 'responsible for his fate'. He said the US would support the Carmona government. But the crucial figure around the coup was Abrams, who operates in the White House as senior director of the National Security Council for 'democracy, human rights and international opera tions'. He was a leading theoretician of the school known as 'Hemispherism', which put a priority on combating Marxism in the Americas. It led to the coup in Chile in 1973, and the sponsorship of regimes and death squads that followed it in Argentina, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and elsewhere. During the Contras' rampage in Nicaragua, he worked directly to North. Congressional investigations found Abrams had harvested illegal funding for the rebellion. Convicted for withholding information from the inquiry, he was pardoned by George Bush senior. A third member of the Latin American triangle in US policy-making is John Negroponte, now ambassador to the United Nations. He was Reagan's ambassador to Honduras from 1981 to 1985 when a US-trained death squad, Battalion 3-16, tortured and murdered scores of activists. A diplomatic source said Negroponte had been 'informed that there might be some movement in Venezuela on Chavez' at the beginning of the year. More than 100 people died in events before and after the coup. In Caracas on Friday a military judge confined five high-ranking officers to indefinite house arrest pending formal charges of rebellion. Chavez's chief ideologue - Guillermo Garcia Ponce, director of the Revolutionary Political Command - said dissident generals, local media and anti-Chavez groups in the US had plotted the president's removal. 'The most reactionary sectors in the United States were also implicated in the conspiracy,' he said.
Re: Re: Re: Re: The Blame Game
I would like to know how accurate Romain's account is. How much were his voters reacting against immigration and crime vs. Maastricht and capitalist Globalization? On Mon, Apr 22, 2002 at 06:06:06PM +0200, Romain Kroes wrote: French people who voted for Le Pen have not become fascists, they only refuse Maastricht and capitalist Globalization. RK -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: two recessions?
- Original Message - From: Devine, James [EMAIL PROTECTED] New York Times/April 18, 2002 ECONOMIC SCENE Government Needs to Prime the Pump By JEFF MADRICK But the financial risks are high. And neither information technology nor free markets have eliminated the business cycle. The best guess is slow growth for a long time, and another recession cannot be ruled out. There is thus ample room for more fiscal stimulus, ideally social programs for the poor, who will spend the money. And the Fed should stay cautious about raising interest rates. We are not out of the woods yet. == Although, what we're doing to the woods is getting worse http://ens-news.com/ens/apr2002/2002L-04-16-02.html Scientists Ask Immediate End to Logging U.S. National Forests WASHINGTON, DC, April 16, 2002 (ENS) - Stop the destructive practice of commercial logging in America's national forests, 221 of the country's most eminent scientists urged President George W. Bush in a letter signed today. The scientists say that without protection from further logging, the country's precious biological diversity will be lost. As conservation-minded scientists with many years of experience in biological sciences and ecology, the letter says, we are writing to bring your attention to the need to protect our national forests. Logging our national forests has not only degraded increasingly rare and valuable habitat, but also numerous other services such as recreation and clean water. Well known scientist signers include Dr. Edward O. Wilson, Harvard University professor and Pulitzer Prize winning author, Dr. Anne Ehrlich, associate director of Stanford University's Center for Conservation Biology, and Dr. Peter Raven, director of the Missouri Botanical Garden and recipient of the 2000 President's National Medal of Science. During the past several decades, the scientists wrote, our national forests have suffered from intense commercial logging. Today almost all of our old growth forests are gone and the timber industry has turned our national forests into a patchwork of clearcuts, logging roads, and devastated habitat. The scientists are asking the President to replace commercial logging with a scientifically based program to restore habitat and native species throughout the 192 million acre national forest system. Dr. Raven said, Our national forests are home to a vast array of plant and animal species, many in a delicate balance of survival. We must protect and restore these species, the fragile forest ecosystems on which they depend, and our natural forest heritage. The letter was released to the public by the Sierra Club, National Forest Protection Alliance, and the U.S. Public Interest Research Group, who share the scientists' views. Protecting our National Forests is an investment in the future, said Tiernan Sittenfeld of PIRG. Unfortunately, the Forest Service is pushing for more logging, which would return us to the destructive policies of the past. We urge the administration to heed the advice of these eminent scientists. The three conservation groups who released the letter today charge Undersecretary of Agriculture Mark Rey, a former timber lobbyist and Senate staffer on the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, with pursuing numerous avenues for increasing logging on our national forests. Rey is now in a position to control what happens in the U.S. national forests, and conservationists point to his, recent attempts to gut the Northwest Forest Protection Plan, rewrite the Roadless Area Conservation Rule to allow for more logging, mining and drilling, and turn management of national forests over to special interests through charter forest initiatives. When more than 200 highly respected scientists agree that logging our national forests is detrimental to the environment, wildlife and the economy, we hope the Bush administration listens. These scientists know that our forests provide clean water and recreational opportunities for all Americans, said Carl Pope, executive director of the Sierra Club. Forest Service Chief Dale Bosworth puts economic considerations on the balance scale along with ecological ones when evaluating timber sales on the national forests. He told an audience in Washington, DC on January 27, Our goal at the Forest Service is to work with our fellow Americans to strike the right balance between social, economic, and ecological sustainability. In this way we can meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs - and make their own informed choices. We must get together as Americans to restore the national forests to health. But in practice, the scientists and conservation groups say, the timber industry has turned America's publicly owned national forests into a patchwork of clearcuts and logging roads. Commercial logging, subsidized by American taxpayers, drains nutrients from the soil,
living in the corporate zoo
Pressure of work Two models of capitalism, Anglo-Saxon and European, are on offer - and we've made the wrong choice Madeleine Bunting Monday April 22, 2002 The Guardian Across Europe, a major battle is developing over work. How hard do you need to work? What kind of job security can you expect? How you organise the workplace, the kind of workforce you develop, the impact of those decisions on social capital (the care of children, the vibrancy of communities, the wellbeing of the population) - these are the threads of a debate that has gathered strength across Europe. They will have a significant impact on the next round of the French presidential elections and the German elections in the autumn, and they were dramatically demonstrated in Italy's general strike last week. The conflict lies between those who argue that the European labour market must be reformed, that greater flexibility is desperately needed if Europe is to close the gap with the US whose GDP is more than 25% above that of the EU, and create the jobs needed to bring unemployment down. The European Central Bank spelled out what it meant by flexibility in a report last month - it urged European governments to make it easier for employers to sack workers, allow higher wage differentials and reform tax and benefit systems to encourage people into work. On the other side are those who argue that this form of flexible labour market may generate wealth and jobs, but it carries an unacceptable price. The hundreds of thousands of Italians who marched against labour reforms in recent weeks look at America and see a society of huge inequality, job insecurity and a work culture that destroys quality of life. The bulk of the jobs it creates are increasingly low-paid personal services to meet the needs of the overworked; in effect, a workforce underclass emerges in which inequality is entrenched. Thanks, but no thanks: if that is the price of creating wealth, a significant number of Europeans are stubbornly insisting that they are not interested. They argue that there are characteristics of their quality of life - time for their children, time for pleasure, a degree of social cohesion, security and continuity of communities - that they value more than higher GDP. The French proudly talk of a right to be lazy and one of Jospin's most significant achievements was the 35-hour week. What drives this debate in Europe are American companies, and American-educated managerial elites who argue for the Anglo-Saxon deregulated labour market. But, unlike in Britain, the labour movements in much of Europe are still powerful enough to offer resistance. It is a clash of two forms of capitalism: the Anglo-Saxon model and a European alternative that takes into consideration social as well as economic indicators. Britain has a bizarre position in this debate. It made the choice two decades ago, and imported US-style management practices. Now it no longer has a trade union movement strong enough to rally the opposition. With extraordinary acquiesence, the British have accepted the longest working hours, the least job security and the biggest pay differentials in Europe. We may occasionally squeal at a particularly egregious pay package for some undeserving corporate executive, but for the most part the British workforce is putting up with more stress and more pressure than ever before. Uncomplainingly, we have swallowed hook, line and sinker the lie that there is no alternative. So now, as Europe wrestles with its future, Britain is on the touchline with New Labour cheering on the liberalisers in Italy and Spain. Government ministers may enjoy the pavement life of Bologna or Barcelona, but they're quite happy to throw their weight firmly behind those attempting to dismantle the legal and economic infrastructure that underpin a rich social fabric. Nor does New Labour flinch from cosying up to liberalisers who frequently invoke the inspiration of Margaret Thatcher. Far from New Labour rowing back on the Tories' love affair with the American workplace, as Richard Scase, professor of management points out, it has extended American managerialism to the public sector. Now, public and private sector are wrestling with decentralised management structures, targets, assessments, job insecurity and monitoring. Much of this has been sold to the workforce as empowerment, whereas it is often the opposite. If a middle manager is given a target and told to ensure it is met, she or he is left with all the risk of whether it is achieved or not, while the implied autonomy is close to fictional. Frequently, the higher risk brings with it longer working hours and stress. Meanwhile the senior management escapes the accountability built into traditional hierarchies, as Scase argues in his new book, Living in the Corporate Zoo. One of America's proudest exports over the past decade has been its management practices, to which it attributes its technological lead and its leap in
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: The Blame Game
I would like to know how accurate Romain's account is. How much were his voters reacting against immigration and crime vs. Maastricht and capitalist Globalization? Michael Perelman The question of immigration has not been an important matter in political discourses, even Le Pen's, for years. But for thirty years, popular voters keep giving the same message in vain. When government is hold by rightists (the seventies), they vote for the left. When government is hold by the left, for doing the same Europen and Globalizing policy (the eighties), they vote for the right. But neither the right nor the left listen to this message. And hand in hand, both oligarchies continue their sapping of salaries, of employment, of social laws, of independance, of hope. Sunday, for the first time, popular voters swang over to a man who spoke (electioneeringly) against Bruxelles, against Maastricht, against oligarchies, and spoke of the real fears, fears of future. As for the security discourse, it was not mainly of Le Pen, but of Chirac and Jospin, first! It is in the traditional communist places (Seine St Denis, Pas de Calais, Loraine, etc.) that Le Pen got the higher scores, not in the richest places where are traditionnally living the rightists and the fascists. And this is the responsibility of the French communist party. There is a globalizing economic crisis with huge social and intellectual consequences! And as long as leftits will continue denying it, popular voters will continue sliding towards populism, as between the two World Wars. RK
Re: Le Pen triumph thanks to ultra-leftists
Chris Burford, in the name of Stalin (aka Dimitrov) invokes a completely nonexistent fascist menace and thereby supports--Chirac! Typical. Shane Mage Thunderbolt steers all things. Herakleitos of Ephesos, fr. 64 Time to read Dimitrov! The danger of fascism remains everywhere under conditions of bourgeois democracy.
Re: Palestine Vietnam
- Original Message - From: Max B. Sawicky [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Democratic left [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Lbo-Talk [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Pen-L [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Sunday, April 21, 2002 5:30 PM Subject: Palestine Vietnam This is aimed at a couple of different lists, so parts of it that seem commonplace to some will provoke others, and vice versa. If it's not too obvious, it seems worth saying that the Middle East complex of issues -- fundamentalism, terrorist attacks on the U.S., oil, and Palestine -- is what will dominate U.S. political discourse for some time to come, much in the way that SE Asia did in decades past. The future of the anti-globalization movement will depend on how it is able to link up with this. = Concept shifting for $500 please Alex? Ian
Re: The Blame Game
Romain writes: It is in the traditional communist places (Seine St Denis, Pas de Calais, Loraine, etc.) that Le Pen got the higher scores, not in the richest places where are traditionnally living the rightists and the fascists. And this is the responsibility of the French communist party. I don't know much about France so I will take Romain's word for that until he is proven wrong, if he is wrong, of course. On the other hand, a phenomenon similar to the above exists in Turkey. Some polls prior to September 11 showed that the newly formed Islamic fundamentalist Saadet Party (Felicity Party) was leading with a 29% whereas all other existing parties whether they are on the left or on the right were failing to pass the 10% level to qualify for the National Assembly membership. The situation may be different now because the US pulled its support behind this party back but if the Turkish military does not block Felicity, I am sure they will do well. And this did not happen because 29% of the electorate suddenly turned Islamic fundamentalist but because of what Romain said: There is a globalizing economic crisis with huge social and intellectual consequences! And as long as leftits will continue denying it, popular voters will continue sliding towards populism, as between the two World Wars. Sabri
The Plan
Today's reading is from the Book of Corporate Life, Chapter 1, verses 1-15: 1. In the beginning was the Plan. 2. And then came the Assumptions. 3. And the Assumptions were without form. 4. And the Plan was without Substance. 5. And darkness was upon the face of the Workers. 6. And the Workers spoke among themselves saying, It is a crock of shit and it stinks. 7. And the Workers went unto their Supervisors and said, It is a crock of dung and we cannot live with the smell. 8. And the Supervisors went unto their Managers saying, It is a container of organic waste, and it is very strong, such that none may abide by it. 9. And the Managers went unto their Directors, saying, It is a vessel of fertilizer, and none may abide its strength. 10. And the Directors spoke among themselves, saying to one another, It contains that which aids plant growth, and it is very strong. 11. And the directors went to the Vice Presidents, saying unto them, It promotes growth, and it is very powerful. 12. And the Vice Presidents went to the President, saying unto him, It has very powerful effects. 13. And the President looked upon the Plan and saw that it was good. 14. And the Plan became Policy. 15. And, that is how shit happens
RE: Re: Palestine Vietnam
If it's not too obvious, it seems worth saying that the Middle East complex of issues -- fundamentalism, terrorist attacks on the U.S., oil, and Palestine -- is what will dominate U.S. political discourse for some time to come, much in the way that SE Asia did in decades past. The future of the anti-globalization movement will depend on how it is able to link up with this. Concept shifting for $500 please Alex? Ian Answer: Israel is a garrison state that provides crucial support for the projection of U.S. military power from Africa to the Indian sub-continent, where the overwhelming bulk of the world's petroleum reserves are located. This military power is the armed force underlying economic arrangements that are euphemistically referred to as free trade, structural adjustment, neoliberalism, democratic capitalism. Question: ? mbs
Re: living in the corporate zoo
There is also an academic zoo, particularly in the US, and I would be happy to see a debate on that here on PEN-L, given that there are many academicians here. I believe, as indicated in the article Ian sent, like the French, the US academicians deserve the right to be lazy every now and then. But you would know that they can't if you know what is going on in the US academic world, especially in the so-called research-first universities, which I call paper publication businesses. Best, Sabri
Argentina: Crocodile Tears
Sympathy, but no cash Apr 22nd 2002 From The Economist Global Agenda As Argentinas financial crisis continues to deepen, any hopes that new help might soon be forthcoming from the International Monetary Fund have quickly faded. Argentina will have to deliver concrete reforms first CROCODILE tears. That must be how the Argentine government views the messages of sympathy for the countrys economic and financial plight which emerged from a series of meetings in Washington, DC, at the weekend. The Argentine finance minister, Jorge Remes Lenicov, had hoped that the G7 finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would provide some hard cash. Instead, he got little more than lunch. Viewed from Buenos Aires, this reluctance to commit new financial support is hard to take. The government of President Eduardo Duhalde inherited a catastrophic collapse of Argentinas economy and its financial system. Latin Americas third-largest economy was forced to default on its huge public debt (the largest sovereign-debt default in history) and to break a decade-old currency peg with the American dollar. The Argentine peso is now worth less than one third of its value of just a few months ago. The economy is in its fourth year of recession and unemployment is at least 20%, possibly much higher. On April 19th, the day before Mr Remess rendezvous with the G7 ministers, the authorities closed all banks indefinitely in a desperate attempt to stop the continuing drain on bank reserves. The banks are unlikely to reopen until emergency legislation has been passed obliging depositors to accept government bonds instead of cash. How can the international community remain unyielding? The sympathy of senior IMF officials and G7 finance ministers appears genuine. There is recognition of the upheaval that Argentina is now experiencing. But there is also frustration that Argentina still seems unable or unwilling to take the action necessary to reform its economy. Without the changes demanded by the IMF in return for further help, both the Fund and its principal rich-country shareholders take the view that any extra cash they stump up would disappear down a black hole. There is relatively little difference in opinion between the IMF and the government in Buenos Aires on what ultimately needs to be done. The argument is about whether reform or new assistance should come first. The Argentine government appears to believe that some of the conditions demanded for the provision of new money are unreasonable and unrealistic. In particular, both the government and the IMF recognise the need to curb overspending by provincial governments, although the Fund insists reform is a precondition of further help. Hanging over the current negotiations is the stinging criticism of many economists: that the IMF should not have bailed out Argentina last August, when it supplied a further $8 billion as part of a deal which should have included reform of public finances. In the event, the package simply postponed Argentinas default and the de-coupling of its currency from the dollara move which economists had said was inevitable. And public finance reform has yet to be tackled effectively. The IMFs relatively new first deputy managing director, Anne Krueger, said recently that even with hindsight it is possible to defend the August decision. And other economists have pointed out that it was particularly in the last quarter of last year, as Argentinas fate became obviousexcept to the then government in Buenos Airesthat the risk premium on the countrys debt started to rise sharply above that for other emerging-market economies. This differentiation of risk played an important part in limiting the fall-out from Argentinas collapse. So far, the contagion that was so apparent in previous emerging-market crises has been noticeably absent in Argentinas case. Whatever the merits of the August bail-out, there now seems to be unanimity that any new package should involve unbreakable commitments from Argentina to undertake reforms. That seems to mean delivering those reforms, or at least making a convincing start to them, up front. This is now something Mr Remes will have to reflect on with President Duhalde. The IMFs managing director, Horst Köhler, said on April 20th that he did not expect further negotiations until the IMF team returns to Buenos Aires next month. The World Bank, meanwhile, is examining the scope for providing humanitarian aid to Argentina to ease the plight of the poorest citizens. And all those involved are trying to draw lessons from the Argentine experience. The G7 has agreed to change the way emerging-market governments issue sovereign debt in order to reduce the risk of default or make them less disruptive. The IMF is working on other far-reaching proposals. IMF economists have also been examining why Latin American countries seem unusually susceptible to disruptive financial crises. One key finding is that
Re: RE: Re: Palestine Vietnam
- Original Message - From: Max Sawicky [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 11:58 AM Subject: [PEN-L:25283] RE: Re: Palestine Vietnam If it's not too obvious, it seems worth saying that the Middle East complex of issues -- fundamentalism, terrorist attacks on the U.S., oil, and Palestine -- is what will dominate U.S. political discourse for some time to come, much in the way that SE Asia did in decades past. The future of the anti-globalization movement will depend on how it is able to link up with this. Concept shifting for $500 please Alex? Ian Answer: Israel is a garrison state that provides crucial support for the projection of U.S. military power from Africa to the Indian sub-continent, where the overwhelming bulk of the world's petroleum reserves are located. This military power is the armed force underlying economic arrangements that are euphemistically referred to as free trade, structural adjustment, neoliberalism, democratic capitalism. Question: ? mbs = You looked at the wrong term. Ian
Bethlehem to Jenin to Nablus: Notes from an International Civilian inPalestine
Date: Sat, 20 Apr 2002 15:37:56 -0400 From: jordan flaherty [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Bethlehem to Jenin to Nablus X-Originating-IP: [62.219.240.47] To: undisclosed-recipients: ; Message-id: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Notes from an international civilian in Palestine April 20, 2002 The horrors I've seen and heard this last week will stay with me always. But I will also remember the generosity I've received from every Palestinian I've met, the bravery I've seen, the hope and kindness in the face of all this terror and brutality. Last week, after two weeks of staying in the Al-Azzeh refugee camp in Bethlehem, I travelled north with a small group of activists. Leaving Bethlehem, we defied curfew, avoided tanks, climbed over roadblocks and travelled towards Jenin. We stayed with a kind family in a village near Jenin. Soldiers and military checkpoints blocked every possible route into the city. Just that morning, a Palestinian had been killed walking in the valley near the military checkpoint. In this village, the school had been turned into a temporary shelter for men from the Jenin refugee camp. How sad, to meet refugees twice removed - forced out of their original homes by the Israeli military decades ago, and now forced out of the refugee camp that has been their home for most of their lives. They told the most haunting stories. Stories of loved ones killed by missles and bulldozers. Stories of torture and terror. All of them had been taken from their homes by soldiers, most of them beaten or tortured, then all were stripped of their clothes and left by Israeli soldiers in this village. 200 of them so far, with more arriving daily. 550 in the next village. The residents of the village all worked together to help the refugees, providing food, shelter, and clothes for the men. (Only men had been left in this village. Its still unclear what the soldiers did with the women arrested). A group of activists with video cameras and sound recorders stayed behind to document the stories of these refugees, while others continued onward into Jenin. Several friends of mine travelled into the Jenin refugee camp, site of the most brutal massacre of this cruel and bloody invasion. Perhaps none of them will ever be the same again. They told me stories of body parts strewn across floors, more bodies buried beneath rubble, others burned beyond recognition. Mass graves, destroyed neighborhoods, and everywhere the smell of decaying flesh. This was not a battle between two armies. This was mass murder, with Apache helicopters, planes, missles, tanks and bulldozers, used against a mostly unarmed civilian population. I left with a small group to go to Nablus, where the killing was continuing, and only one international civilian was there to observe the military abuses. We hiked for three kilometres over mountains and through villages, attempting to hide from tanks and jeeps. We stayed in a medical center, and by day we rode with ambulances. In several Palestinian cities, international observers are riding in ambulances. This is because the Israeli soldiers continue to target doctors and relief workers for assassination. In the last two weeks, eight medical workers in Nablus were killed by the Israeli military. All of the ambulances had bullet holes. Every day we were there, soldiers would detain the ambulances at least once, for at least two hours. Three times in five days, they forced everyone out of the ambulance, made them strip to their underwear, and stand for hours in the hot sun. These paramedics and ambulance drivers and medical volunteers were truly among the most awe-inspiring people I've ever met. Throughout the harassment and terror, they continued to go out, day after day. At night, we were kept awake by the sound of airplanes, missles, and tank shelling. By day, we saw the devastation. The Casbah, Nablus' old city, was in ruins. I saw schools, hospitals, and churches, in buildings two thousand years old, reduced to a pile of rubble. I saw medics trying to rescue a young boy, burned beyond recognition by a tank shell. I visited a hospital where the morgue was so full of dead bodies that they had to store some in an ice cream truck. I saw a refugee camp overrun with trash and sewage because no one could leave their houses for two weeks to repair the damaged infrastructure or pick up garbage. The are just glimpses from this latest invasion. I looked in the face of a fifteen year old Palestinian girl, a volunteer medic, shaking and crying in fear, as we tried to stop Israeli soldiers from seizing her. I was punched and kicked and beaten by those same soldiers. But above all, I'll never forget the people I've met here. The friends I've met, the love and forgiveness and generosity, are what I'll take home with me. For the latest news: Indymedia Palestine, http://jerusalem.indymedia.org Press contact: Kristen Schurr 011 972 59
Iraqi Kurds Planning to Oust Saddam
Iraqi Kurds Planning to Oust Saddam By Salah Nasrawi Associated Press Writer The Associated Press Monday, April 22, 2002 CAIRO, Egypt -- Leaders of the two main Kurdish parties that control northern Iraq met with U.S. officials last week to coordinate efforts to remove Saddam Hussein from power, according to Iraqi dissidents and Arab press. Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party, and Jalal Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, also discussed plans for a government that would replace Saddam's regime once the Iraqi leader is ousted, the Iraqi dissidents told The Associated Press. Officially, the Kurdish groups -- the only armed Iraqi opposition groups -- have said nothing about the meeting, perhaps out of fear of being accused by other Iraqi factions of working unilaterally with the United States. On Sunday, the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper reported that both Barzani and Talabani met officials from the Pentagon, the State Department and the CIA in Germany last week. Quoting a Kurdish source, the paper said both sides met for three days near Berlin and reviewed coordination to launch a strike against Saddam most likely by the end of this year. The Iraqi dissidents told AP on Sunday that Barzani and Talabani also discussed with U.S. officials plans for merging their two governments administrating northern Iraq ahead of a possible move against Saddam. German Foreign Ministry spokesman Andreas Michaelis confirmed Monday that the two Kurdish leaders were in Germany last week but refused to provide further information. A spokeswoman at the U.S. Embassy in Berlin told AP that the United States never comments on intelligence matters. Delshad Miran, a spokesman for the KDP in London, and Fouad Massoum, the British-based PUK's Europe's representative, told AP their two leaders are in Europe but declined to divulge more. If confirmed, it would be the first meeting between the two leaders since their parties fought a bloody war over control of the Kurdish area in 1994. The United States, which imposes a no-fly zone on the enclave to protect Kurds against Saddam's incursion, has been mediating between the two parties. Such a meeting would be a strong signal to Saddam that the Bush administration is determined in its efforts to remove him from power. The 1995 Iraq Liberation Act, passed by Congress and signed by then- President Clinton, made it a matter of law that the United States supports regime change, or the ouster of Saddam. Bush has recently reiterated that goal. Earlier this month, several Iraqi opposition leaders, including representatives from the two Kurdish groups, met in Washington to iron out plans for a post- Saddam government. The Bush administration reportedly is weighing options for deposing Saddam, among them supporting a local insurgency, fostering a coup by the Iraqi leader's closest lieutenants and an outright U.S.-led invasion
RE: Re: living in the corporate zoo
Sabri writes: I believe, as indicated in the article Ian sent, like the French, the US academicians deserve the right to be lazy every now and then. sh*t, if I weren't lazy, I wouldn't have time to participate in pen-l. Academically yours, Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine -Original Message- From: Sabri Oncu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 12:11 PM To: PEN-L Subject: [PEN-L:25284] Re: living in the corporate zoo There is also an academic zoo, particularly in the US, and I would be happy to see a debate on that here on PEN-L, given that there are many academicians here. I believe, as indicated in the article Ian sent, like the French, the US academicians deserve the right to be lazy every now and then. But you would know that they can't if you know what is going on in the US academic world, especially in the so-called research-first universities, which I call paper publication businesses. Best, Sabri
Re: Le Pen triumph thanks to ultra-leftists
At 22/04/02 14:13 -0400, you wrote: Chris Burford, in the name of Stalin (aka Dimitrov) invokes a completely nonexistent fascist menace and thereby supports--Chirac! I know we all speed read, but this is a bizarre and baseless interpretation of my letter. Nor do I wish to imply that radical forces should have supported Jospin blindly. I note the interesting comments from Jean-Christophe [on LBO-talk] about the strength of left campaigning groups. My criticisms are directed at small sectarian parties who just aim to take 5% of the vote without apparently addressing the question of the overall result, and presumably claim that is some contribution to revolutionary politics. And to muddle up Stalin with Dimitrov! Chris Burford
Re: Alabama offers union-free auto plant for Hyundai
This article claims that the Alabama giveaway to Mercedes was a good deal of the state. It was, of course, about $170,000 in incentives per job. Brooks, Rick. 2002. Big Incentives Won Alabama a Piece of the Auto Industry. Wall Street Journal (3 April): p. A1. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Hypocrites
Today's WSJ has another one of those op-ed pieces saying a corporation cannot commit a crime; only individuals can. These people want to give the corps. all the benefits of individuals [free speech, etc.], but immunity from penalties. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Re: Argentina, Australia and Canada
At 11:17 AM 21/04/2002 +0800, Grant wrote: That wasn't my contention, which is more accurately that except for actual formal/military imperialism, (e.g. Britain in India) imperialist and imperialised have always been poles on a notional axis, rather than being distinct and permanent things. I mean are you saying that there is little difference between the present positions (relative and absolute) of the economies and overseas political influence of Malaysia and Indonesia, compared now with what they were 50 years ago? Nothing is pure or permanent, but yes, Malaysia and Indonesia are still imperialist-dominated countries (and also still in a different way than lesser imperialists Australia and New Zealand). The best recent candidate for the 'imperial' club is probably s. Korea, but, hello, this country is divided in half, occupied by US nukes... Forces which, some would argue, have assisted the South Korean national bourgeoisie in the same way that the capitalist economies of Japan, Taiwan and the old West Germany grew significantly as armed camps. S Korea ... could do _nothing_ if Japan, Europe and the US stopped imports from s. Korea with a stroke of a pen. Why would they do that? And there's always China... For protectionist reasons, like the current US tariffs on s. Korean steel. Korean capitalists are impressive, but they are more vulnerable than capitalists in Japan or Germany. s. Korea and Taiwan were assisted to stop 'communism', but I don't see either of them being let into the imperialist club. It is possible, but a lot of this kind of talk has been cooled by the 'Asian' financial crisis. One point of the stats was that the highly imperialised Kenya is imperialist in regard to neighbouring countries, as shown (e.g.) by the restrictions on Kenyan investment. Nigeria is an even stronger case. Yes, imperialized countries often dominate weaker neighbours, but I think the concept of imperialism should be reserved for geo-politics at a larger scale. And Kenya's outward FDI/GDP is only 1.5%; one-fifth of the inward rate. Nigeria's outward FDI/GDP is an impressive 31%, but still less than inward FDI/GDP at 51%. I mentioned South Africa before, but forgot to include the rates - inward FDI/GDP is 13.4% and outward FDI/GDP 24.8%. We need to look at other criteria, but the FDI numbers suggest that in Africa the only candidate for imperialist status is South Africa. As you can see, Belgium and Switzerland show high rates of outward FDI, and most FDI is to and from Europe - and almost nothing is _from_ the likes of Argentina, Malaysia or Saudi Arabia. I note that the HK and Singaporean outward FDI figures cited are higher than any of the European states you have cited, except Switzerland. Fair enough, but, again, I think 'real' imperialist status requires a bigger real-estate base than these city-states. They are historical/geographical accidents/exceptions who lack the (more) independent economic base characteristic of 'real' imperialists. Bill R. also notes that it is important to consider the extent to which their FDI data reflects investors from other countries (this is probably also very relevant for the Swiss data). Substitute longer term declines in prices for wheat (which in the 1950s was worth more than three times what it is now), beef and other commodities and you have substantial structural problems for Argentina and Australia, both of which (unlike Indonesia or Malaysia) have also both experienced a withering of their manufacturing industries in the last 30 years. The source I cited also reports a decline in the index for Australian coal from 55.9 in 1980 to 32.6 in 1997. However, in general terms the point is that the prices of goods produced by the rich imperialist countries have risen relative to those produced by poor imperialized countries. The Argentina-Australia comparison is very much on point. Have their manufacturing sectors really followed similar paths in recent decades? I don't have the data for Argentina on hand, but the OECD STAN database shows that per capita manufacturing output in Australia in 1997 was over US$8000, and total manufacturing output was over 5 times greater than in 1970, and about 25% greater than in 1989. (current US$). I think this suggests a different kind of 'withering' than in Argentina. There are obviously more non-thieves and fewer thieves in imperialised countries than in imperial ones; we will never stop thievery by encouraging the smaller thieves. It is my fault for having started this inelegant metaphor, so... Bill
Re: living in the corporate zoo
Jim writes: Sabri writes: I believe, as indicated in the article Ian sent, like the French, the US academicians deserve the right to be lazy every now and then. sh*t, if I weren't lazy, I wouldn't have time to participate in pen-l. Hey, not all of them are like you, you bloody sectarian. I am married to one who works like crazy and I am trying improve my family life. Why are you sabotaging my attempt to start a revolution in the academic world? This is quite unfriendly, you know? Sabri (the one who knows who to enjoy the Mediterranean sun laziness)
Re: Hypocrites
Of all the Supremes on the bench, only Rehnquist has explicitly come out against corporate 'personhood.' Frightening eh? According to a former attorney [who's currently researching the California constitutional convention] I spoke to over the weekend, the corps. are full throttle explicitly arguing their views before the Supremes, using Easterbrook and beyond type arguments --nexus of contracts etc.-- in order to avoid the drawbacks of anti-personhood arguments that they found strategically useful from 1886 up to Buckley v Valeo. Slavery was the absurd idea that a person could be property. A corporation is the absurd idea that property can be a person. [author's name withheld...no it's not mine] Oh the pitfalls of mereology, Ian - Original Message - From: Michael Perelman [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 2:28 PM Subject: [PEN-L:25292] Hypocrites Today's WSJ has another one of those op-ed pieces saying a corporation cannot commit a crime; only individuals can. These people want to give the corps. all the benefits of individuals [free speech, etc.], but immunity from penalties. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
gunboat diplomacy
from SLATE's on-line news summary:The [Wall Street JOURNAL's] Max Boot writes a column today in support of the peacekeepers. He notes, History is replete with examples of U.S. troops doing precisely such missions, and for the most part with considerable success. In our history lesson for the day, Boot reminds readers that U.S. sailors, protecting American businessmen and missionaries, successfully patrolled in China more or less continuously for 100 years--from the 1840s to the 1940s. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
April 2002: U.S.-made bomblet kills boy and woman in Vietnam
April 2002: U.S.-made bomblet kills boy and woman in Vietnam Reuters. April 22, 2002 HANOI -- An 11-year-old boy and middle-aged woman were killed and three people hurt when a U.S.-made bomblet left over from the Vietnam War exploded at the weekend. An official of the People's Committee of Ky Son district in the northern province of Nghe An told Reuters the boy had picked up the small bomb and it exploded when he dropped it walking to his home on Saturday evening. He thought it could be a toy, so he took it home and accidentally dropped it, said the official, who did not want to be identified. The explosion killed a 45-year-old woman standing nearby with a child on her back, who was injured. A female teacher and her child were also injured. The official said four secondary school pupils were killed five years ago in a similar accident in the same district. There are still many bombs left from the war in the area, although army engineers have checked many times, he said. Explosions of ordnance from war that ended in 1975 kill and maim dozens of people each year, many of them children. Many of the injuries are caused by anti-personnel cluster bomblets that were dropped in large numbers by U.S. forces and designed to resemble tropical fruits like guavas or pineapples.
Re: Re: Hypocrites
- Original Message - From: Ian Murray [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 3:49 PM Subject: [PEN-L:25295] Re: Hypocrites Of all the Supremes on the bench, only Rehnquist has explicitly come out against corporate 'personhood.' Frightening eh? According to a former attorney [who's currently researching the California constitutional convention] I spoke to over the weekend, the corps. are full throttle explicitly arguing their views before the Supremes, using Easterbrook and beyond type arguments --nexus of contracts etc.-- in order to avoid the drawbacks of anti-personhood arguments that they found strategically useful from 1886 up to Buckley v Valeo. === ps, that's pro-personhood arguments.
Re: gunboat diplomacy
No doubt protecting Roosevelt's grandpa, Captain Delano's opium shipments. A noble mission indeed. On Mon, Apr 22, 2002 at 03:46:56PM -0700, Devine, James wrote: from SLATE's on-line news summary:The [Wall Street JOURNAL's] Max Boot writes a column today in support of the peacekeepers. He notes, History is replete with examples of U.S. troops doing precisely such missions, and for the most part with considerable success. In our history lesson for the day, Boot reminds readers that U.S. sailors, protecting American businessmen and missionaries, successfully patrolled in China more or less continuously for 100 years--from the 1840s to the 1940s. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Re: gunboat diplomacy
Some of which probably coursed through C S Pierce's synaptic gaps.. - Original Message - From: Michael Perelman [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 4:02 PM Subject: [PEN-L:25300] Re: gunboat diplomacy No doubt protecting Roosevelt's grandpa, Captain Delano's opium shipments. A noble mission indeed. On Mon, Apr 22, 2002 at 03:46:56PM -0700, Devine, James wrote: from SLATE's on-line news summary:The [Wall Street JOURNAL's] Max Boot writes a column today in support of the peacekeepers. He notes, History is replete with examples of U.S. troops doing precisely such missions, and for the most part with considerable success. In our history lesson for the day, Boot reminds readers that U.S. sailors, protecting American businessmen and missionaries, successfully patrolled in China more or less continuously for 100 years--from the 1840s to the 1940s. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Indo-Russia pact to sell Sukhois to Malaysia
The Times of India SUNDAY, APRIL 21, 2002 Indo-Russia pact to sell Sukhois to Malaysia PTI NEW DELHI: Russia wants India to participate in the development of Sukhoi aircraft for the Royal Malaysian Air Force as the fighter jet sought by Kuala Lumpur would be a derivative of SU-30 MKI, which are being operated by the Indian Air Force. Russia's Irkut Corporation, which has signed an MoU with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) for licensed manufacture of 140 SU-30 MKI aircraft in India, has sought HAL's cooperation in the process of cornering international market for this aircraft, according to Alexey Fedorov, president of the Corporation. The Irkut company, which is already in talks with the Malaysian airforce on the issue, has suggested that a regional centre for integrated logistical support for SU-30 MKI fighter jets be set up in India. The Sukhoi chief, who will arrive in India early next week to participate in a seminar on Indo-Russian military industrial cooperation, recently said in Moscow there is no doubt that in future HAL will be active to cooperate with the Royal Malaysian Air Force to provide their fleet of Sukhoi aircraft with spares and technical service. Stating that SU-30 MKM offered to Malaysia was basically a derivative of SU-30 MKI, Fedorov said the positive mood of Malaysia with regard to SU-30 MKM aircraft in many respects stems from the successful implementation of the MKI project and the practical result achieved by the Russian and Indian participants in the project. The Sukhoi chief, who was speaking to an Indian delegation in Moscow last week, also said that the Russian company was very busy exploring possibilities for Malaysia to use the regional centre of integrated logistical support for SU-30 MKI aircraft which is to be set up in India. He told the high-level Indian team that the only way out was to form a joint Russian-Indian aircraft manufacturing sector capable of preserving its independence by way of consolidating efforts and funds in the face of transatlantic domination. Convergence and mutual interpenetration of Russian and Indian high-tech complexes must follow the chosen logic of further augmentation and expansion of cooperation between the leading aircraft manufacturing coroporations of the two nations, Fedorov added. He also referred to the joint implementation of the largest project for production of 165 MiG-27 ML fighter bombers, called 'Bahadur', at HAL facilities. These aircraft now form the basis of the IAF's striking force. Copyright © 2002 Times Internet Limited. All rights reserved.
Peron in a nutshell, or the prequel to Hugo Chavez
From the Corradi article on Argentina in Chilcote-Edelstein, Latin America: the struggle with dependency and beyond: An officer in the ministry of war, an important member of the GOU, Colonel Juan D. Perón, had asked and obtained the job of running the labor department. Perón was intelligent enough to realize that the military project could not survive by force alone, isolated from different political groupings and social interests and against overwhelming pressure from abroad. Perón was responsible for ending the assault on the workers' organizations and proceeded to reverse labor policy. He achieved this end with remarkable skill. The unions were well organized and well run when Perón began his work. Despite splits and demoralization after a decade of repression, they withstood the vicious attacks by conservatives and militarists and continued to uphold demands which had been systematically denied by successive administrations since 1930. We have already seen how the working class had borne the full weight of industrial accumulation during the thirties and early forties. By satisfying the pent-up demands of the workers' organizations, Perón easily gained the upper hand over left and center parties which had been rendered impotent by the previous regimes. His approach was eminently reasonable, though opportunist, and the workers' support for Perón was eminently rational. To interpret Perón's appeal as exclusively charismatic, that is, as the irrational attachment of miserable, undereducated, unorganized masses of migrants from the countryside to a Latin caudillo is to forget the important role played by older, mature worker organizations and leaders in the initial phase of Perónism. It is my impression that during the initial phase of Perónism there was an objective advance of the Argentine working class as a whole. Under Perón's leadership the Argentine labor movement experienced a phase of liberation and growth before passing under his control in later stages of the regime, when cross-pressures and contradictions turned it into a stagnant and reactionary system. Perón's first step was to raise the labor department to full ministerial status. He then persuaded his military friends to join with him in meeting some of the trade union leaders. He managed to convince the latter that he meant business when he spoke of satisfying the demands of the working class. He thus obtained the support of a number of leaders and organizations. But many workers were not organized, and many were, because of rapid industrialization, recent arrivals in the Buenos Aires labor market. These were shirtless ones, the descamisados about whom Perón and his companion, Eva Duarte, often spoke. The packing plants, to take an important example, had long resisted attempts at unionizing the workers. The meat workers were subjected to wide wage differentials and to seasonal unemployment. There were many other workers in a similar position, seasonally unemployed, ill paid, and hard to organize. Perón helped them. He got union leaders out of prison and tried to win their support. He organized the unorganized. He opened government posts to union men. In short, he provided many short-run benefits to the workers and added a large welfare dimension to the activities of the state. The support Perón obtained as a result of these measures was not too different from the support of F. D. Roosevelt's social security legislation won from the American poor. Welfarism went deep, and transformed Argentine politics. In 1946 the welfare colonel was able to win the presidency in free elections against a solid block of privilege ranging from large conservative landowners on the right, to the socialist and communists politicos on the left. Perón's success should be understood, however, in terms of his opponents' weakness and serious political mistakes. Perónism came to fill a vacuum created by the debilitation of the different social classes and the weakening of the political fabric in the previous decade. The crisis of the thirties had dealt a serious economic blow to the landed bourgeoisie. It responded to economic weakness with political usurpation, and in so doing, corroded and corrupted the entire political system. On the other hand, industrialization could not be prevented, even though it took place haltingly, was kept contained, and was initially designed as a mere import-substitution device by the agrarians. Industrialization had produced a new bourgeoisie that was politically timid, ethnically segregated, and above all dependent for its prosperity on exceptional international circumstances and on the often reluctant protection of the state. Industry also had given birth to a large urban proletariat-exploited, and repressed, which found its demands unfulfilled and its struggles frustrated. From 1930 to 1935 high unemployment and political repression had weakened the power of
Re: Argentina, Australia and Canada (Entrepôts)
Bill R: Thanks for a very interesting post and the references, which I haven't had time to check yet. I haven't been able to pinpoint the exact quote, but somewhere in _Capital_ Marx (slightly tongue-in-cheek) quotes Adam Smith saying that all entrepôts are barbaric; Marx's point being that monopolies of foreign trade were the main way in which metropolitan bourgeoisies exploited colonial bourgeoisies. How times change. Regards, Grant. --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.351 / Virus Database: 197 - Release Date: 19/04/2002
World Bank, IMF Provoke Protests Worldwide
World Bank, IMF Policies Provoke Protests Worldwide Mon Apr 22,10:13 AM ET Jim Lobe, OneWorld US At least 23 countries in Asia, Africa, and the Americas experienced protests or civil unrest last year as a result of their governments' pursuit of policies backed by the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) (IMF) and the World Bank (news - web sites), according to a report released this weekend. Led by Argentina, where IMF-decreed austerity brought down an elected president last December, some 76 people were killed around the world in 77 episodes of unrest generated by IMF-backed policies, says the report from the London-based World Development Movement (WDM). At least 30 people were killed in Argentina as a result of anti-government protests which ousted President Fernando de la Rua last December and two of his successors in January. Despite the toll, the IMF continues to demand sharp cuts in the new government's budget as the price for fresh loans - a major subject of this week's annual Bank-IMF Spring meetings in Washington where the new report was released. By undermining democracy and rolling back the state, developing country governments may be left powerless to act in the interests of their citizens, according to the report, 'States of Unrest II.' Demonstrations, protests and strikes are a legitimate way for many people to let both their governments and the international community know that policies are not working - in some cases it is the only option left, the report states. The first edition of the WDM report, released at the World Bank-IMF annual meetings in Prague in September 2000, showed that the mostly young, largely Western demonstrators who protested there were part of a much larger global movement that is demanding that the two Bretton Woods agencies abandon their Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPS) which critics say have actually deepened poverty and widened the gap between rich and poor. It detailed 50 separate anti-IMF protests in 13 countries in the 10 months running up to the Prague meeting. A total of 10 people lost their lives and 300 more were injured in those demonstrations. SAPs, which were renamed Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP) in 1999, typically require borrowing governments to sharply cut government spending, privatize state-run industries, devalue the local currency, increase interest rates, and promote exports in order to better integrate the domestic economy into the international system and attract private foreign investment. These policies can wreak havoc on national economies, and hit the poorest members of the population particularly hard. Government budget cuts, for example, have frequently fallen most heavily on social-service programs, although civil servants have also taken a share of the impact. In addition, privatization can result in massive layoffs and higher prices for basic services and utilities. But poor governments are obliged to implement them anyway, because they are unlikely to be able to borrow money from private institutions unless the IMF and the Bank have given them a Seal of Good Housekeeping. Of the 23 countries covered in the new report, nearly three-quarters are implementing IMF-backed privatization programs, and over half of these have experienced demonstrations against the moves. Roughly half of the 23 countries have experienced protests by civil service and other public-sector workers, including teachers, doctors, and police officers; while a third of the countries have seen demonstrations against the rising prices of basic goods and services resulting from the removal of public subsidies. A third of the countries underwent protests that were explicitly directed against the Bank and the IMF, which often work in tandem in poor countries. In addition to Argentina, the most serious protests--sometimes resulting in violent confrontations with police or the army--occurred in Ecuador, Indonesia, Kenya, Malawi, and Papua New Guinea. But the report also documents protests and strikes in a number of other countries, including Angola, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador (news - web sites), Ghana, India, Mexico, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Pakistan, South Africa, South Korea (news - web sites), Turkey, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Millions of desperately poor people around the world have been brave enough to protest against IMF policies: doctors, farmers, priests, teachers, trade unionists, and indigenous people, said the report's author, Mark Ellis-Jones. They have seen the IMF continue to undermine their national governments by forcing countries into a free market, one-size-fits-all blueprint of economic development, he added. At a time when links are being made between poverty, disempowerment and terrorism this erosion of the democratic contract is downright dangerous. Full at: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=storyu=/oneworld/20020422/ wl_oneworld/1032_1019487948 Oneworld at: http://www.oneworld.net
The coming Turkish Raki Crisis.
It is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. We will see. Sabri == Concerns mount around lira's strength Turkish Daily News April 22, 2002 Concerns have recently mounted around the strength in the value of the lira, which was once regarded as a blessing that could support the purchasing power while helping the authorities curb inflation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was the last to join the wagon of misgivings, having implied that the appreciating lira might threaten Turkey's competitiveness. The authorities have wondered why the lira got stuck around its current level for so long, while some analysts are warning that excessive currency strength might lead to a sharp correction later in the year in the case of a domestic or external shock. In the independent interbank market on Friday the U.S. dollar was trading at 1,307,500/1,309,000 to the Turkish lira, compared to highs of 1.65 million in October 2001. It has fallen below the 1.3 million mark during the past two weeks, but made a quick rebound above what dealers say is a resistance level, while the pe rsisting strength of the lira currency is leading analysts to revise their exchange rate and inflation projections. Our currency forecast for the end of March was 1.38 and we expected further depreciation to 1.45 by June and 1.55 by September. We are now looking for 1.38 in June and 1.48 in September, Morgan Stanley economist Serhan Cevik said in a research note. Although we still expect that the lira will resume depreciating at a relatively faster pace in the fourth quarter and in 2003, the overall decline in the exchange rate is now significantly less than in our previous forecast, he added. In a public information notice on regular Article IV consultations with Turkey, IMF Executive Directors said the Turkish lira has appreciated by more than 20 percent against the U.S. dollar in the last few months and expressed a need to closely monitor Turkey's external competitiveness in light of the recent appreciation of the Turkish lira. Analysts say the currency's strength owes much to a reversal in currency substitution as residents' demand for lira instruments rose in line with increasing confidence, while due to an anemic domestic demand foreign trade flows are also supporting the currency. But banks' foreign currency positions came under question after two of Turkey's most powerful financial figures warned local banks the week before that borrowing dollars excessively to invest in high real Turkish lira interest rates was risky and unwise. Central Bank Governor Sureyya Serdengecti and Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) chief Engin Akcakoca have said they were concerned by signs banks were increasing their foreign exchange exposure in a worrying echo of the situation before last year's financial meltdown. Officials are clearly uneasy about the possibility that some of the recent strength of the lira has been driven by domestic banks' going short foreign exchange to buy Treasury bills in the face of an expected fall in interest rates, Credit Suisse First Boston economist Berna Bayazitoglu said in a research note. Analysts have said it was probable that local banks were expanding their foreign currency short positions in spite of rules limiting their abilities to do so though balance sheet activities. Banks could be doing this by stepping around the legislation and using their non-financial affiliates or off-shore subsidiaries to increase their foreign currency exposure. But in a statement last week the banking watchdog said it was monitoring banks' activities carefully at home and abroad. When there's any breach of statutory limits on foreign currency exposures, the BDDK doesn't choose to spread this news through the media but directly warns the concerned bank instead, the BDDK said, adding that its earlier statement was merely an assessment of the issue from the theoretical and legal perspective in the current circumstances. The watchdog also provided the most recent data on private banks' foreign currency short positions, which implied a decline in their exposure since February. According to the information provided by the watchdog, on-balance-sheet foreign currency position of private banks stood at a negative $991 million on March 29, down from a negative $1,325 million on February 22. Private banks' foreign currency short position was $1,487 million on December 28, 2001 and $1,225 million on January 25, implying that the lira appreciation was not stemming from a foreign currency sell-off by these banks. Analysts observing risks to the current situation say excessive currency strength could be followed by a sharp correction as well as pointing to a potentially negative impact on export growth. The Central Bank is expected to continue cutting its short-term rates, which it did three times since February and which should contain the appreciation in the value of the lira. Analysts also suggest that
