[PEN-L:6564] (Fwd) NATO LOSSES AND THE MILITARY COSTS - Defense & Foreign A

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Subject:                NATO LOSSES AND THE MILITARY COSTS - Defense & Foreign Affairs
        report

Defense & Foreign Affairs                               April 1999

NATO LOSSES AND THE MILITARY COSTS

[The Defense & Foreign Affairs Group of Publications (USA), which 
started in 1972, circulate exclusively to senior government, defense, 
intelligence and industry officials in more than 170 countries 
worldwide.]

        "It is clear from the amount and quality of intelligence received by 
this journal from a variety of highly-reputable sources that NATO 
forces have already suffered significant losses of men, women and 
materiel. Neither NATO, nor the US, UK or other member 
governments, have admitted to these losses, other than the single 
USAF F-117A Stealth fighter which was shown, crashed and burning 
inside Serbia.
        The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff had denied, about a 
month into the bombing, that the US had suffered the additional losses 
reported to Defense & Foreign Affairs. 
        By April 20, 1999, NATO losses stood at approximately the 
following: 

*  38 fixed-wing combat aircraft; 
*  Six helicopters; 
*  Seven unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs); 
*  "Many" Cruise Missiles (lost to AAA or SAM fire).

        Several other NATO aircraft were reported down after that date, 
including at least one of which there was Serbian television coverage. 
The aircraft reportedly include three F-117A Stealth strike aircraft, 
including the one already known. One of the remaining two was shot 
down in an air-to-air engagement with a Yugoslav Air Force MiG-29 
fighter; the other was lost to AAA (anti-aircraft artillery) or SAM 
(surface-to-air missile) fire. Given the recovery by the Yugoslavs of F-
117A technology, and the fact that the type has proven less than 
invincible, the mystique of the aircraft — a valuable deterrent tool until 
now for the US — has been lost.
        At least one USAF F-15 Eagle fighter has been lost, with the pilot, 
reportedly an African-American major, alive and in custody as a POW.
        At least one German pilot (some sources say two men, implying 
perhaps a Luftwaffe crew from a Tornado) has been captured.
        There is also a report that at least one US female pilot has been 
killed.
        In one instance in the first week of the fighting, an aircraft was 
downed near Podgorica. A NATO helicopter then picked up the 
downed pilot, but the helicopter itself was then shot down, according to 
a number of reports.
        Losses of US and other NATO ground force personnel, inside 
Serbia, have also been extensive.
        A Yugoslav Army unit ambushed a squad climbing a ravine south 
of Pristina, killing 20 men. When the black tape was taken from their 
dog-tags it was found that 12 were US Green Berets; eight were 
British special forces (presumably Special Air Service/SAS). This 
incident apparently occurred within a week or so of the bombing 
campaign launch.
        It is known that other US and other NATO casualties have, on 
some occasions, been retrieved by NATO forces after being hit inside 
Yugoslavia. At least 30 bodies of US servicemen have been processed 
through Athens, after being transported from the combat zone.
        At least two of the helicopters downed by the Yugoslavs were 
carrying troops, and in these two a total of 50 men were believed to 
have been killed, most of them (but not all) of US origin.
        Certainly, the US has lost to ground fire and malfunction a number 
of Tomahawk Cruise Missiles. At least some of these have been 
retrieved more or less intact, and the technology has been immediately 
reviewed by Yugoslav engineers. More than one told this writer that 
the technology was now readily able to be replicated in Yugoslavia.
        The war has cost Alliance members in other ways, too. There is 
enormous disaffection with the US Armed Forces. For a start, to 
prosecute even the smallest expansion of the war requires the call-up of 
Reserve and National Guard units. The personnel from these units have 
civilian jobs, and, as with the US involvement in S-FOR in Bosnia-
Herzegovina, being called up for active duty in the Balkans seems to be 
an open-ended thing. This is not the type of national emergency for 
which most of them signed-on.
        On top of that, there are questions about the wisdom of the orders 
they are receiving, and a total lack of clear strategic (let alone military) 
objectives. One serving career mid-level military officer in the US told 
this writer: "I am incredibly appalled at this war, or whatever it is, and 
the lack of strategic thought; the bungling, stumbling blind policies 
which have led to this [situation], and the murderous impact on not just 
the Serbs and Kosovars, but on the concepts of conflict resolution and 
sovereignty."
        The officer continued: "I am very upset, and while I have been 
vocal in my small world, and many agree with me, I am part of a 
system that is stumbling as best it can to implement the failed 
brainwork of the NCA [National Command Authority; the President] 
and SecState [Secretary of State], and General [Wesley] Clark 
[Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, for NATO], too. Why haven’t 
the military leadership stepped up and put their job on the line for 
common sense."
        The problem is not confined to the US forces. In Britain, a near 
mutiny was reported aboard the carrier HMS Invincible. And as news 
of very real NATO casualties emerge, morale will decline. Meanwhile, 
those who have any knowledge of the facts know that since 1948, 
Yugoslavia, particularly under Tito, has been preparing to fight, 
literally, World War III. NATO heavy armor may indeed roll easily 
across the Albanian border, or down across the fertile plains of 
Vojvodina from Hungary, right into Belgrade. But most of Yugoslavia 
is mountainous, and the mountains filled with underground fuel 
supplies, ammunition factories, probably oil refineries, buried hangars 
and roads which become airstrips.
        And those in the US Armed Forces believe that the Clinton White 
House, from the President — an anti-Vietnam War protester and 
conscription dodger — and First Lady down to the young Clintonite 
staffers, hate the US Armed Forces with a passion. It is clear that the 
determination of the Yugoslavs to defend their country has 
strengthened; after all, they have nowhere else to go. But already the 
morale of the NATO forces is declining."