[PEN-L:8198] Re: long waves references
Perhaps add to this list a new book out called "The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Thythm of History" by David Hackett Fischer, Oxford, 1996. Jim Craven Date sent: Sun, 12 Jan 1997 14:55:14 -0800 (PST) Send reply to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] From: "Rosser Jr, John Barkley" [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject:[PEN-L:8194] long waves references [long] It occurs to me that we had this discussion of long waves on this list before, but what the heck. Anyway, let me put this in broader perspective with some history of the debate and some references. I shall leave it to Paul Phillips to provide good ones from David Gordon on the SSA approach and from Robert Boyer (or whomever) on the French regulationist approach. I note that the original literature was in Dutch and German and that the theory remains most popular in those countries, along with Russia, where there has been a revival of interest since the Kondratiev centennial in 1991 with a lot of new literature in Russian coming out over there (a few in English: Leonid Abalkin, "Scientific Heritage of N. Kondratiev and contemporaneity: The Report to the International Scientific Conference devoted to the 100th birth anniversary of N. Kondratiev," Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 1992, and Yuri V Yakovets, "Civilization cycles and the model of reproduction structure dynamics," The Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation, 1992). Kondratiev's original paper in 1926 was in German, but a shorter version was published in English a number of years later, thereby giving him "credit" in English language sources and discussions as their discoverer. However, the first paper on long waves, which used much of the data later used by Kondratiev and many of his arguments as well, was in Dutch by J. van Gelderen, "Springvloed: Beschouwingen over industrieele ontwikkeling en prijsbeweging," _De Neuwe Tijd_, 1913, 18, nos. 4-6. This paper, which focused more on price data, as did Kondratiev's (which as Jim Devine has noted shows long wave effects more clearly than does output data), has just been translated into English by Bart Varspagen as "Springflood," and appears as the first paper in the newly released Edward Elgar volume of readings on Long Waves, edited by Alfred Steinherr. Neither van Gelderen nor Kondratiev was definitive about the mechanism, and both threw out elements of what show up in several later theories as possibilities. The Dutch have continued to be the biggest fans, including with papers regularly appearing in _De Economist_, (Jay Forrester, "Growth Cycles," _De Economist_, 1977, 125, 525-543 and K.B.T. Thio, "On Simultaneous Explanation of Long and Medium-Term Employment Cycles," _De Economist_, 1991, 139, 331-357) as well as the book by J.J. van Duijn, _De Lange Golf in de Economie_, 1979, Assen: Van Gorcum (translated into English several years later as _The Long Wave in Economic Life_). After falling out of favor for some time, the theory picked up adherents in the 1970s with the apparently long wave slowdown occurring then, which still looks like a very serious explanation, with the previous "Golden Age" being the upswing after the Great Depression downswing. In German this was symbolized by Gerhard Mensch's _Das Techologishe Patt_, Frankfurt am Main: Umschau Verlag, which was translated several years later into English as _The Stalemate in Technology_. As has been already mentioned, probably the most widely discussed theory has been the technological clustering/wave theory, which had a strong early statement by Schumpeter in his 1939 _Business Cycles_. Others supporting variations on this include Mensch, Richard M. Goodwin, "The Economy as an Evolutionary Pulsator," _Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization_, 1986, 7, 341-349, and Andrew Tylecote, ""History as a Forecasting Tool: The Future of the European Economy in a Long-Wave/Long-Cycle Perspective," _Review of Political Economy_, 1992, 4, 226-248. A technical way of analyzing "technique clusters" can be found in Chapter 8 of my 1991 _From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities_, Boston: Kluwer, which draws heavily on Richard H. Day and Jean-Luc Walter, "Economic Growth in the Very Long Run: The Multiple Phase Interaction of Population, Technology, and Social Infrastructure," in William A. Barnett, John Geweke, and Karl Shell, eds., _Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearity_, 1989, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 253-290, although it must be noted that Day and Walter are more concerned with the much longer wave (300 years) theory of "la duree" due to Fernand Braudel, which if I get into further here, Doug Henwood will decide that I have been
[PEN-L:8198] Re: long waves references
Perhaps add to this list a new book out called "The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Thythm of History" by David Hackett Fischer, Oxford, 1996. Jim Craven Date sent: Sun, 12 Jan 1997 14:55:14 -0800 (PST) Send reply to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] From: "Rosser Jr, John Barkley" [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject:[PEN-L:8194] long waves references [long] It occurs to me that we had this discussion of long waves on this list before, but what the heck. Anyway, let me put this in broader perspective with some history of the debate and some references. I shall leave it to Paul Phillips to provide good ones from David Gordon on the SSA approach and from Robert Boyer (or whomever) on the French regulationist approach. I note that the original literature was in Dutch and German and that the theory remains most popular in those countries, along with Russia, where there has been a revival of interest since the Kondratiev centennial in 1991 with a lot of new literature in Russian coming out over there (a few in English: Leonid Abalkin, "Scientific Heritage of N. Kondratiev and contemporaneity: The Report to the International Scientific Conference devoted to the 100th birth anniversary of N. Kondratiev," Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 1992, and Yuri V Yakovets, "Civilization cycles and the model of reproduction structure dynamics," The Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation, 1992). Kondratiev's original paper in 1926 was in German, but a shorter version was published in English a number of years later, thereby giving him "credit" in English language sources and discussions as their discoverer. However, the first paper on long waves, which used much of the data later used by Kondratiev and many of his arguments as well, was in Dutch by J. van Gelderen, "Springvloed: Beschouwingen over industrieele ontwikkeling en prijsbeweging," _De Neuwe Tijd_, 1913, 18, nos. 4-6. This paper, which focused more on price data, as did Kondratiev's (which as Jim Devine has noted shows long wave effects more clearly than does output data), has just been translated into English by Bart Varspagen as "Springflood," and appears as the first paper in the newly released Edward Elgar volume of readings on Long Waves, edited by Alfred Steinherr. Neither van Gelderen nor Kondratiev was definitive about the mechanism, and both threw out elements of what show up in several later theories as possibilities. The Dutch have continued to be the biggest fans, including with papers regularly appearing in _De Economist_, (Jay Forrester, "Growth Cycles," _De Economist_, 1977, 125, 525-543 and K.B.T. Thio, "On Simultaneous Explanation of Long and Medium-Term Employment Cycles," _De Economist_, 1991, 139, 331-357) as well as the book by J.J. van Duijn, _De Lange Golf in de Economie_, 1979, Assen: Van Gorcum (translated into English several years later as _The Long Wave in Economic Life_). After falling out of favor for some time, the theory picked up adherents in the 1970s with the apparently long wave slowdown occurring then, which still looks like a very serious explanation, with the previous "Golden Age" being the upswing after the Great Depression downswing. In German this was symbolized by Gerhard Mensch's _Das Techologishe Patt_, Frankfurt am Main: Umschau Verlag, which was translated several years later into English as _The Stalemate in Technology_. As has been already mentioned, probably the most widely discussed theory has been the technological clustering/wave theory, which had a strong early statement by Schumpeter in his 1939 _Business Cycles_. Others supporting variations on this include Mensch, Richard M. Goodwin, "The Economy as an Evolutionary Pulsator," _Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization_, 1986, 7, 341-349, and Andrew Tylecote, ""History as a Forecasting Tool: The Future of the European Economy in a Long-Wave/Long-Cycle Perspective," _Review of Political Economy_, 1992, 4, 226-248. A technical way of analyzing "technique clusters" can be found in Chapter 8 of my 1991 _From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities_, Boston: Kluwer, which draws heavily on Richard H. Day and Jean-Luc Walter, "Economic Growth in the Very Long Run: The Multiple Phase Interaction of Population, Technology, and Social Infrastructure," in William A. Barnett, John Geweke, and Karl Shell, eds., _Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearity_, 1989, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 253-290, although it must be noted that Day and Walter are more concerned with the much longer wave (300 years) theory of "la duree" due to Fernand Braudel, which if I get into further here, Doug Henwood will decide that I have been
