Economic reform has ravaged the Russian countryside and, in some ways, far
more than World War II did. In 1945 gross agricultural output in the USSR
was down by 31% from the prewar level. In 1996 and 1997,by way of contrast,
it was down by some 38% from the pre-reform 1986-1990 average. In 1998, a
year of severe drought, it was down 45.1% from the pre-reform average.
And while the scale of the current decline is slightly more severe than
that triggered by World War II, it has been far more severe than the 24%
decline triggered by the collectivization in the 1930's. The decline in net
agricultural output, a concept that factors in the depletion of the machine
parks and livestock, soil degradation etc (all described below) has been of
a much larger but undetermined magnitude.
Given the exceptionally cold spring in the principal growing regions and
another record breaking hot summer, the prognosis for the 1999 harvest is
bleak.
Attached is a free standing commentary I was invited to do sometime back
for a volume to be published sometime this summer. The commentary is
primarily a statistical portrait of the disaster.
I followed the directions I was given by one of the co-editors ,i.e., do
not propose cures, nor comment on the chapter devoted to cures.
A few weeks ago I received notice that the other co-editor (Lawrence
Klien) felt that the piece was not "solid enough" to stand alone and that
it would
be used as an appendix to the chapter devoted to remedies. I would
be listed as one of the chapter's co-authors. I responded by withdrawing my
piece.
The volume in question is.
REBUILDING RUSSIA
A Balanced Approach to Economic Transition
edited by Lawrence R Klein (University of Pennsylvania) & Marshall Power
(Harvard University)
foreword by Mikhail Gorbachev .
REBUILDING RUSSIA
A Balanced Approach to Economic Transition
edited by Lawrence R Klein (University of Pennsylvania) & Marshall Pomer
(Harvard University)
foreword by Mikhail Gorbachev
World Scientific Publishing Company .
300pp (approx.)
Pub. date: Summer 1999
ISBN 981-02-3853-3
US$58 / £35.
J.K Galbraith's pre-publication review is as follows;
"No writing (or oratory) in history has been more replete with bad advice
than that given Russia in the
last decade. Here, for a change, is something very good: the best, in fact,
that truly competent and
responsible American and Russian scholars have to offer. I strongly
recommend it." John K Galbraith
As I said, the commentary is attached. It may be a question of ego, but
honestly do not know where one can find a more complete picture of the
degree to which reform has ravaged the Russian countryside.
final ag art.doc (Microsoft Word Document)
