RELEASED TODAY: Annual average unemployment rates rose in more than half the states in 2001 for the first time since 1992, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The four census regions and nine geographical divisions all recorded rate increases. Employment-population ratios declined in 38 states and the District of Columbia. At the national level, the annual average jobless rate rose from 4.0 percent in 2000 to 4.8 percent in 2001, and the employment-population ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage point to 63.8 percent.
New claims for unemployment insurance benefits for the week ending Feb. 16 totaled 383,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 373,000, the Employment and Training Administration reports. The less volatile, more closely watched four-week moving average increased 5,750 to 381,750 for the period ended Feb. 16, from the previous week's revised average of 376,000, ETA said (Daily Labor Report, page D-8). The index of leading economic indicators increased in January for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting that the recession may be ending. The 0.6 percent increase follows a revised 1.3 percent rise in December, according to the Conference Board, a New York-based research organization (Daily Labor Report, page D-11). The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by 11.4 percent in December as exports edged up and imports declined, the Commerce Department reported Feb. 21 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). A drop in imports helped cause the U.S. trade deficit to decline by $3.3 billion in December, to $25.3 billion, the Commerce Department said. The deficit was significantly less than department economists had assumed when they estimated that the economy grew at a meager 0.2 percent annual rate during the final three months of 2001. A number of analysts said the trade figure, coupled with other new data, means Commerce is likely to revise its estimate upward to 1 percent or better (The Washington Post, page E2). Despite growing signs that the economy is in recovery mode, the jobs pool continues to shrink and unemployed workers are exhausting jobless benefits in numbers not seen since the early 1970s....As the unemployment rolls grow, so do the number of workers who have collected unemployment benefits for 26 weeks, the limit on eligibility. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington think tank, estimates that nearly 81,000 workers are exhausting their benefits every week (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). A survey released by the National Association of Manufacturers found that 45 percent of its members expected to increase their capital spending in the first half of this year by as much as 5 percent, while 38 percent said they anticipated a continued decline in capital spending. The outlook for unemployment remains muddled. The unemployment rate has historically continued to rise for some months after a recession; after the last recession ended in March 1991, unemployment drifted up for 15 months, to 7.8 percent from 6.8 percent. The rate is now 5.6 percent. Some economists said the rate was likely to hit 6.5 percent before falling. Others said it would not rise much more.
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