This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. ------ =_NextPart_000_01BCE386.A4176250 charset="iso-8859-1" BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 1997 BLS will release in the third or fourth week of November labor force projections for 1996-2006. BLS Associate Commissioner Neal H. Rosenthal says the agency has learned from previous projections that it tends to be too conservative in its estimates of labor force trends ....In analyzing its projections for 1984-95, BLS tended to be accurate about trends in labor force growth, demographic participation, and occupational employment, but underestimated the size of the changes, according to articles in the Monthly Labor Review ....Broad assumptions, like the strength of the world economy, are subject to great uncertainty, Rosenthal said in the article "Evaluating the 1995 BLS Projections" ....The projection of the total civilian labor force was 3.1 million lower than the actual 1995 labor force of 132.3 million, an error of 2.8 percent, wrote Howard N. Fullerton Jr. in the same article .....Arthur Andreassen found that BLS correctly described most broad industry trends over the 1984-95 period ....Carolyn M. Veneri found that occupational employment projections captured most of the trends over the 1984-95 period ....The fastest growing occupation groups had the largest projection errors, she said ....(Daily Labor Report, page A-1). Although fatal accident rates have decreased in dangerous occupations such as mining and construction, mortality rates among agricultural workers remain consistently high - at least twice that of workers in other industrialized sectors, an International Labor Office official says ....(Daily Labor Report, page A-4). A national poll of working people has found that a majority expect to move on to another job within the next five years, even though most workers are satisfied where they are. The poll, made public by Louis Harris & Associates, said 53 percent of workers expected to leave their positions voluntarily within five years, and 17 percent of workers considered it likely that they would be dismissed or laid off. Though three-quarters of workers deemed their jobs interesting, half gave their pay and retirement benefits negative ratings ....The sample of 714 workers was part of a Harris poll of 1,011 adults from Sept. 10 to 15 .....(New York Times, page A20). The minimum-wage increase has turned into one of the nonevents of 1997, thanks mostly to the economy's continuing strength, says a Wall Street Journal article (page A1). Low-wage Americans - nearly 10 million workers, by some estimates - got a raise. But amid the current prosperity, hardly anybody noticed ....The big issues now are, in a sense, the collateral damage of the economic boom: intensified competition, a scarcity of good workers, high staff turnover, and job burnout .... The U.S. economy is expanding at better than a 3 percent clip, says "The Outlook" column of The Wall Street Journal (page A1), written by David Wessel. The pool of workers sitting on the sidelines is evaporating. Unions finally are showing signs of life. Wage and benefit costs may be turning up. Boeing Co. can't make planes fast enough. The nation's railroads can't make timely deliveries. Business executives appear dangerously euphoric and, at least until last week, so did stock-market investors. What more will it take for Alan Greenspan to pull the interest rate trigger? A lot, apparently, says Wessel ....The column is illustrated with a chart entitled "Running Low on Workers?" which shows those officially unemployed plus those who say they want to work as a percentage of the work force, 1970 to the present. BLS is given as the source ....The column concludes by saying, "With so little inflation to begin with and so much uncertainty, the case for a preemptive strike against inflation is weak. The conventional justification for raising rates, which would have justified a move long before now, won't suffice. Something significant in the economic environment has to change before Mr. Greenspan can justify raising interest rates now." The Wall Street Journal's "Tracking the Economy" feature (page A8) shows the technical data consensus forecast for the Employment Cost Index for the third quarter, to be released tomorrow, as 0.8 percent, identical to the previous quarter's actual raise. Despite some problems, employees with family needs choose to share duties to increase flexibility, says The Washington Post (Oct. 26, page H4) ....According to a 1996 survey by Hewitt Associates of 718 large corporations, 258 offered job sharing, compared with 161 five years ago .....Despite the potential pitfalls, job sharing can work, but it depends entirely on the personalities and work ethics of the two people involved. In addition to concerns about efficiency, employers generally are wary of the cost of paying extra benefits ....Thus, job sharing is not widely offered, even among the corporations that have it as an option .... 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