Oh Six
EPI's labor market mavens Mishel/Bernstein/Boushey look pretty good now, with their prediction of 6.5 UE by the end of the year. We could be in for a double-dip. See: http://www.epinet.org/webfeatures/econindicators/jobspict.html http://www.epinet.org/Issuebriefs/ib176.html http://www.epinet.org/briefingpapers/bp121.html Max Sawicky EPI
RE: Oh Six
quoth Max: EPI's labor market mavens Mishel/Bernstein/Boushey look pretty good now, with their prediction of 6.5 UE by the end of the year. We could be in for a double-dip. it's true that we may see a double-dip, as rising unemployment collides with the existing consumer indebtedness, causing a sudden fall in consumer spending (and related types of spending like housing investment). But it's also possible that Alan Greenspan has gotten what he wanted -- despite his seemingly panicked floundering about during 2001. Back in 1999-2000, he wanted the economy to slow down -- to get the unemployment rate above the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment -- because he was afraid of inflation. But he didn't want a recession; he wanted a soft landing. During 2001, it sure looked as if we'd get a hard landing or worse. But then Alan rushed in to rescue the economy, cutting rates, while fiscal policy helped, too. So the recession turned out to be short lived and some say it didn't really happen. Maybe it can be said that there was no bourgeois recession, since after the third quarter of 2001, GDP has picked up quite nicely. We haven't seen the stock market bubble pop or the housing asset prices plummetting (au contraire!). But we are seeing a proletarian recession, a steady and sustained rise in the unemployment rate and, to AG's glee, a move toward above the NAIRU. He's even thinking of hiking interest rates... Of course, the previous paragraph is a best-case scenario. JD
Re: RE: Oh Six
Devine, James wrote: But we are seeing a proletarian recession, a steady and sustained rise in the unemployment rate and, to AG's glee, a move toward above the NAIRU. He's even thinking of hiking interest rates... Eh? How do you know? The collective wisdom of Wall Street is that no such hike is imminent, and in this case, the CWoWS is probably right. Dallas Fed President McTeer said recently that they wouldn't raise rates until unemployment was below 5%. In the Fed's entire history, they've never raised rates until after the peak in unemployment. Doug
RE: Re: RE: Oh Six
You're right, I don't know. My info is a little on on this, but the talk on the street (as I understand it) is that he's thinking of raising rates at the end of the year or a year from now. I'm sorry if I implied that he's going to do it _now_. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine -Original Message- From: Doug Henwood [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Friday, May 03, 2002 1:44 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:25653] Re: RE: Oh Six Devine, James wrote: But we are seeing a proletarian recession, a steady and sustained rise in the unemployment rate and, to AG's glee, a move toward above the NAIRU. He's even thinking of hiking interest rates... Eh? How do you know? The collective wisdom of Wall Street is that no such hike is imminent, and in this case, the CWoWS is probably right. Dallas Fed President McTeer said recently that they wouldn't raise rates until unemployment was below 5%. In the Fed's entire history, they've never raised rates until after the peak in unemployment. Doug
