What this shows of course is that not only do sources inflate reserve
numbers but they also deflate them for political reasons. When sources give
high figures for reserves Mark Jones can claim--sometimes correctly--- that
the actual reserves are less. However when low official estimates are given
that support his own position he uses these figurres to support his case. He
does not question them even though, as you point out, low estimates may very
well be far too pessimistic, and just as with high estimates there may be
obviously political reasons for low estimates as you point out.
When Canadian oil companies wanted to increase exports in the past,
they gave inflated figures for reserves. WHen they want lower royalties,
etc. and
subsidies etc. reserves are suddenly lower.and there is a pressing need to
encourage investment in exploration etc...
Cheers, Ken Hanly
- Original Message -
From: Julio Huato <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Saturday, July 07, 2001 11:05 PM
Subject: [PEN-L:14800] Re: RE: Re: Re: US Crude Oil Reserves for Selected
States/Regions
> Mark Jones <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
> >elsewhere. In 1999 Mexico downgraded its official reserve estimates by 20
> >Gigabarrels.
>
> The Mexican government, especially since Zedillo, has been claiming that
the
> state monopoly, PEMEX, is in deep trouble. Fox has adopted a similar
> position. It is somewhat likely that the purpose is to alarm the public
re.
> the state of the oil industry in Mexico, in order to open prospection,
> extraction, refining, petrochemical production, wholesale and retail
> distribution to private companies (particularly US companies, which --
under
> NAFTA -- have an advantage), and privatize PEMEX.
>
> This is the argument: Government revenues are highly dependent on oil
> revenues (and foreign currency) from the state monopoly, the fiscal reform
> is stuck in Congress, and the government cannot undertake the large
> investments required to modernize PEMEX. The only way out -- they
claim --
> is privatization of the industry. I'm no expert and have no way to assess
> to what extent this distorts the picture.
> _
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>