Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
On Fri, 28 Apr 2000, M A Jones wrote: Hey, Russia posted a whacking bal of payments surplus last year and has done almost every year since 1991. Is it also a no-brainer to buy up some roubles right now? That sounds like a challenge to me. Only trouble is I'm not a Malt Man. But I'm willing to stake a case of 1995 Wehlener Sonnenuhr Auslese (JJ Pruem) on an appreciating euro. The spread is a EUR/USD rate of 1.00 or higher by May 2001. Since I'm going to be in hiding next year, running from Sallie Mae's creditors, my broker will be in contact with your broker. -- Dennis
The reality of German involvement in central Europe [was Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending (fwd)
Dennis R Redmond wrote: The Opposing Team is Daimler, Sony, Mitsubishi, Nokia, etc. and not just Microsoft and Intel. We've got to think *past* the Wall Street Bubble, not just against it. Germans flock East for cheap sex and petrol FROM ALLAN HALL IN CHEB, CZECH REPUBLIC AS a boom town Cheb has little to say for itself. Years of communist neglect coupled with the birthing pains of rampant capitalism have left buildings and streets in a decrepit state. Neglect hangs in the air like noxious gases from the defunct chemical plants that once spewed poison into the atmosphere with abandon. Yet this Czech Republic town and others like it are El Dorados for wealthy Germans who break for the border each day to carpetbag the spoils of consumerism with a vengeance. Berlin is painfully aware that billions of marks that should be heading into its cash-strapped exchequer are being lost annually in the bazaars of its not-so exotic eastern neighbour. Everything is cheaper in these frontier towns. Petrol costs 70 pfennigs (about 22p) a litre less; excellent Czech beer is 28p a half-litre in bars or £4 for a takeaway case of 24 bottles. Entire outfits of brand-name Neoprene sportswear, training shoes and counterfeit fashion wear - Versace, Calvin Klein, Louis Vuitton to name a few - are available for a pittance. They are hawked, curiously, by Vietnamese traders; once fighters for North Vietnam's liberation, welcomed as heroes by the commisars of the former communist Czechoslovakia and now exiles from their homeland. They have found a new life and, relatively speaking, new riches in the Czech Republic. Other items they sell in sprawling market stalls housed beneath plastic sheets are cartons of Western cigarettes, at £10 less per 200 than their retail price in Germany, bottles of high-grade spirit for £3 each, and neo-Nazi "white power" CDs that are forbidden across the border. Authorities refer to the hordes of visitors - an estimated 750,000 a month to Cheb alone - as the "TBZ Touristen"; T for tanken, or filling up the car; B for bümsen, a coarse German word for sex; and Z for zigaretten. This week saw the German equivalent of the CBI arguing against drawing the Czech Republic and its other eastern neighbour, Poland, into the European Union club too quickly. While the official line is that they are not "ready" to play at capitalism on a level field, the fear of German businesses, particularly small ones, is that manufacturing will be contracted out to them at bargain-basement rates. Besides the loss of revenue, German authorities are also deeply concerned about the B-word. Prostitutes line the boulevards in these seedy, border towns, wearing little more than scraps of clothing and offering cheap sex - mostly without condoms. "Mother comes here to get her hair done and father goes off to the brothel," Brigitte Valoweka, a waitress in a Cheb restaurant, said. "A lot of these girls are Roma, Gypsies. They are dirty and have no idea of staying healthy. They just want a few marks to take home. It seems that everyone is on the game. But they only want to do it with rich Schnitzels - Germans." On the outskirts of Karlovy Vary - the Sudeten spa town of Karlsbad to Germans - there is the undignified sight each day of hundreds of scantily clad prostitutes lining the pavement near Theresienstadt, the former Nazi concentration camp that is now a memorial to Holocaust victims. Every day 25,000 German cars pour into Cheb, with a similar number of vehicles crossing into Varnsdorf, heading for the sights and the bargains of such former Sudeten German towns as Liberec and Brux. Czech authorities like the hard currency - an industrial wage in the Czech Republic is a fraction of what it is in Germany - but bemoan the proliferation of the mafia that has muscled in to control the sex, booze, drugs and illegal weapons sold in the markets. Russian Makarov pistols and Kalashnikov rifles can be purchased for a few marks. A deranged imam, who killed his family of six before turning the gun on himself in Bielefeld last year, bought his KAL Czech pistol for £10 in a bazaar on the border. "They may be old but they are in good condition and you certainly can't get them as easily in Germany," Dieter Brandl, a civilian employee with the German Army, said. He travels twice a month from Hof, Bavaria, to practise shooting at a club outside Cheb. "The ammunition is half price and the weapons I am able to use much better. Everyone comes here looking for a bargain and this is mine." Although the locals deride the Germans and are contemptuous of their big cars, big waistlines and swaggering manner, they cannot allow personal feelings to get in the way of commerce. They are dependent on the hard currency as their jobless queues get longer and the economic outlook remains bleak. Max Sommerer, German customs chief at one of the border crossings, said: "There would be more crossing each day were it not for the traffic jams. It's like the
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
Jim Devine wrote: Eventually (in 1985-7), the dollar fell (in inflation-adjusted terms, using the trade-weighted measure), due to the large trade deficits (which had not yet turned into current-account deficits) and due to a convergence of US interest rates with those of the rest of the world. This is helpful but the real point is that previous dollar crashes (even Nixon taking it off the gold standard) have not affecetd the fundamentals of US hegemony. Why will it be any different now? If Wall Street goes, so will the world's other bourses; and when the world recovers, other things being eual, the US will lead the take-off. Plus ca change. Mark Jones http://www.egroups.com/group/CrashList
Re: Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
When it was launched the euro bought $1.16. Parity - where one euro bought one dollar - was deemed unthinkable. Today, however, one euro is worth just over 91 cents. . The problem for the euro is that throughout its life there has been a very attractive something else - the dollar. shouldn't the large US current account deficit signal a fall in the US$ and a rise in the Euro sometime in the near future? Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://liberalarts.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: Re: Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
Not if people expect the NASDAQ to go up 50% this year. Rational expectations, you know ... Jim Devine wrote: shouldn't the large US current account deficit signal a fall in the US$ and a rise in the Euro sometime in the near future? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: Re: Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
Jim Devine wrote: shouldn't the large US current account deficit signal a fall in the US$ and a rise in the Euro sometime in the near future? Why? Mark Jones http://www.egroups.com/group/CrashList
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
I wrote: shouldn't the large US current account deficit signal a fall in the US$ and a rise in the Euro sometime in the near future? Mark Jones asks: Why? because the current account deficit is larger than ever before, with US net indebtedness contributing via the income account. The dollar's high value is partly a result of the its special attractiveness as a safe haven (i.e., not due to relative interest rates), which is due to the high and bubbly US stock markets and the stagnation of economies outside the US. Since the stock market boom cannot last forever, and has in fact entered the bearish phase, the dollar will not stay high forever. Similarly, a lot of the world outside of the US is doing better compared to a few years ago and seems likely to continue to do so as long as the US avoids recession. (If the US enters a recession, that would improve its current account balance, of course, assuming that other countries are not pulled down too.) (Since both Europe and the US are raising interest rates these days, there's somewhat of a cancelling-out on that front as far as exchange rates are concerned, even though that has a negative effect on world aggregate demand. Since real GDP growth rates are not extremely out of synch between Europe and the US at this point, there's also a cancelling-out as far as exchange rates are concerned. Both of these growth processes are currently helping world aggregate demand.) We should remember that the dollar was also high during the early 1980s, having a decimating effects on US net exports similar to what's happening now. A lot of that was due to soaring US interest rates, but some of it was the "safe haven" effect. Eventually (in 1985-7), the dollar fell (in inflation-adjusted terms, using the trade-weighted measure), due to the large trade deficits (which had not yet turned into current-account deficits) and due to a convergence of US interest rates with those of the rest of the world. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://liberalarts.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
On Thu, 27 Apr 2000, Louis Proyect crossposted: Conclusion to "Not A Happy Ending" by Samir Amin, published in Al-Ahram. http://www.ahram.org.eg/weekly/1999/462/samir.htm US HEGEMONY ATTACKS --THE 21ST CENTURY WILL NOT BE AMERICAN: There are no European TNCs: only British, German, or French TNCs. Capital interpenetration is no denser in inter-European relations that in the bilateral relations between each European nation and the US or Japan. Nokia, Daimler, Renault, SAP, Deutsche Bank, BNP etc. all went global decades ago. Eurocapital has been merging like there's no tomorrow. There probably will be a tomorrow for this world-system, but it'll be transacted in euros. -- Dennis
Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
Dennis R Redmond wrote: There probably will be a tomorrow for this world-system, but it'll be transacted in euros. Living in the shadow of the dollar Mark Milner, deputy financial editor The Guardian Thursday April 27, 2000 How low can the euro go? ... Today the currency slumped to fresh lows on the foreign exchanges despite a rise in interest rates by the ECB. Since its launch at the beginning of last year the euro has lost a fifth of its value against the dollar and a similar amount against the Japanese yen - the heavy weights of the global currency markets which the euro was meant to rival. When it was launched the euro bought $1.16. Parity - where one euro bought one dollar - was deemed unthinkable. Today, however, one euro is worth just over 91 cents. . The problem for the euro is that throughout its life there has been a very attractive something else - the dollar. Mark Jones http://www.egroups.com/group/CrashList
Re: Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
On Fri, 28 Apr 2000, M A Jones crossposted: Mark Milner, deputy financial editor The Guardian Thursday April 27, 2000 How low can the euro go? ... Today the currency slumped to fresh lows on the foreign exchanges despite a rise in interest rates by the ECB. This is known as a buying opportunity of historic proportions. Some future George Soros out there is going to make an unholy killing by snapping up EUR and dumping USD. Exchange rates bounce all over the place -- the yen was as low as 85 to the dollar in 1995, then zoomed to 142 to the dollar quite recently, now it's around 106 (long-term averages put the yen at 110 to the dollar). The euro could go as low as 80 to the dollar and as high as 130, but as long as the EU keeps running big trade and current account surpluses vis-a-vis the US, investing in its currency is a no-brainer. As someone said, somewhere, one should not mistake a data point for an inflection point. -- Dennis
Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending (fwd)
Dennis R Redmond wrote: There probably will be a tomorrow for this world-system, but it'll be transacted in euros. so should we give up the struggle? i don't see the point.. Mine Doyran SUNY/Albany
Re: Re: Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
Mark Jones http://www.egroups.com/group/CrashList Dennis R Redmond wrote: This is known as a buying opportunity of historic proportions. Some future George Soros out there is going to make an unholy killing by snapping up EUR and dumping USD. Hey, Russia posted a whacking bal of payments surplus last year and has done almost every year since 1991. Is it also a no-brainer to buy up some roubles right now? Mark 'no-brain' Jones
Fw: Re: Re: Re: Samir Amin: Not a Happy Ending
- Original Message - From: "M A Jones" [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Friday, April 28, 2000 3:57 AM Subject: Re: [PEN-L:18398] Re: Re: Re: Samir Amin: "Not a Happy Ending" Hey, Russia posted a whacking bal of payments surplus last year and has done almost every year since 1991. Is it also a no-brainer to buy up some roubles right now? While I think about, the US has run a b of p deficit for at least two decades, so obviously we should have been piling into roubles since at least 1973, when one rouble was worth 1.7 US$ (unlike today when one dollar buys a kilo of dried roubles). The UK (which recently overhauled France in GDP, thus proving again the superiority of Anglo-Saxon methods) ran a deficit for most of the 19th century; no doubt the brainless thing then was to bale out of Nepalese rupees, Bahamian cowry shells etc and jeopardise your children's inheritance by buying sterling. Mark Jones http://www.egroups.com/group/CrashList
