[PEN-L] Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani walks away from Iraqi politics

[Leigh Meyers]

Juan Cole:
http://www.juancole.com/2006/09/south-asian-pilgrims-slaughtered.html

opednews.com, Ron Fullwood, reads about the same way:

<...>
The Independent is reporting that Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has
"abandoned attempts to restrain his followers" and no longer believes he
can stand in the way of the growing civil war. "I will not be a
political leader any more," he reportedly told aides. "I am only happy
to receive questions about religious matters."

Sistani's departure from Iraq's political scene and his return to his
religious role signals an end to the Maliki regime's attempt to
consolidate power and sell his reconciliation plan to the myriad of
warring factions who are engaged in armed and deadly struggles against
his regime, and against each other as well. It was Sistani who brought
the thousands of his followers to the polls, forcing Bush to make good
on his promise of early elections.

It was Sistani who forged an alliance with former militant, Shiite
cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr allowing the elections to proceed. It's no
exaggeration that, without Sistani's participation there may never have
been elections in Iraq, or a Maliki government.

It's also clear that, without Sistani's involvement in Iraq's political
future, Sadr's political influence will be elevated in the short term.
It remains to be seen, though, if Sadr, who is arguably more prone to
lead his followers to armed and active resistance, and, whose followers
are already engaging government troops in street battles, will follow
Sistani and lead his congregation away from the political sweet spot
he's carved out for himself in the Iraqi legislature.

One thing that's certain, however, is that Iraq is indeed poised for a
complete breakdown along sectarian lines, whatever you want to call it,
and a devolution into a full-scale battle for each faction's political
and material survival. In an ominous sign of things to come, the Kurds
have replaced the Iraqi flag they were flying with one of their own.
Iraq is splitting apart.
<...>
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_ron_full_060903_sistani_led_his_foll.htm

Re: [PEN-L] Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani walks away from Iraqi politics

[Yoshie Furuhashi]

On 9/3/06, Leigh Meyers <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

Juan Cole:
http://www.juancole.com/2006/09/south-asian-pilgrims-slaughtered.html

opednews.com, Ron Fullwood, reads about the same way:

<...>
The Independent is reporting that Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has
"abandoned attempts to restrain his followers" and no longer believes he
can stand in the way of the growing civil war. "I will not be a
political leader any more," he reportedly told aides. "I am only happy
to receive questions about religious matters."

 Sistani's departure from Iraq's political scene and his return to his
religious role signals an end to the Maliki regime's attempt to
consolidate power and sell his reconciliation plan to the myriad of
warring factions who are engaged in armed and deadly struggles against
his regime, and against each other as well. It was Sistani who brought
the thousands of his followers to the polls, forcing Bush to make good
on his promise of early elections.

It was Sistani who forged an alliance with former militant, Shiite
cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr allowing the elections to proceed. It's no
exaggeration that, without Sistani's participation there may never have
been elections in Iraq, or a Maliki government.

It's also clear that, without Sistani's involvement in Iraq's political
future, Sadr's political influence will be elevated in the short term.
It remains to be seen, though, if Sadr, who is arguably more prone to
lead his followers to armed and active resistance, and, whose followers
are already engaging government troops in street battles, will follow
Sistani and lead his congregation away from the political sweet spot
he's carved out for himself in the Iraqi legislature.

One thing that's certain, however, is that Iraq is indeed poised for a
complete breakdown along sectarian lines, whatever you want to call it,
and a devolution into a full-scale battle for each faction's political
and material survival. In an ominous sign of things to come, the Kurds
have replaced the Iraqi flag they were flying with one of their own.
Iraq is splitting apart.
<...>
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_ron_full_060903_sistani_led_his_foll.htm



IMHO, Sistani's support for the 2005 elections in Iraq, run on the
basis of sectarian parties vying for seats and spoils, contributed to
the rise of sectarian violence.

Daily Attacks by Insurgents:
May 2003   5
May 2004 53
May 2005 70
May 2006 90

Monthly Incidents of Sectarian Violence:
May 2003   5
May 2004 10
May 2005 20
May 2006   250

SOURCE: Nina Kamp, Michael O'Hanlon, and Amy Unikewicz, "The State of
Iraq: An Update," New York Times, 16 June 2006


Note the more than tenfold increase in sectarian violence since the elections.

The Iraqi people need a national liberation front, rather than
sectarian parties.  A national liberation front has to include those
Sunni and Shi'is who have taken up arms, but it cannot solely consist
of fighters; it has to be the kind of front in which women can
participate, the kind of front that can wage mass struggles (largely)
without arms, in the fashion that the Iranians forced out the Shah (in
which armed struggles had very little -- virtually no -- role).

If a national liberation front of this sort comes about at all (it
won't be easy to create one, especially if you want the Kurds in), it
will do so in large part due to Moktada al-Sadr's initiative,* for he
has a genuine popular base among the Shi'i working class, alone among
the Shi'is leaders of Iraq, and he is not Persian (unlike Sistani, who
is Iranian-born and is said to speak with a Persian accent), a big
bonus point, and yet knows how to make friends with Tehran.  Sadr has
to sell Tehran on his idea, so Tehran will either drop SCIRI and Badr
or compel them to sign on to it (the former is better than the
latter); or better yet, Sadr will get more popular among Shi'is and
relegate SCIRI and Badr to irrelevance.

* As part of his effort to influence the political forces
in Iraq prior to the forthcoming parliamentary election, at the end of
November Muqtada al-Sadr had his supporters distribute the draft of a
"Pact of Honor," and called on Iraqi parties to discuss and
collectively adopt it at a conference to be organized before the
election.

This conference was actually held on Thursday, December 8, in
al-Kadhimiya (North of Baghdad). Despite extensive search, I found it
only reported in a relatively short article in today's Al-Hayat and in
dispatches from the National Iraqi News Agency (NINA). There is
legitimate ground to suspect that this media blackout has political
significance; indeed most initiatives by the Sadrist current are
hardly reported by the dominant media, even when they consist of
important mass demonstrations (like those organized yesterday in
Southern Iraq against British troops).

In the case of the recent conference, the vast array of forces that
were represented and that