http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GE03Ad01.html
Greater China May 3, 2005 Anti-Japan protests may signal power struggle By Bennett Richardson TOKYO - Anti-Japan violence, statements and other developments in China suggest the recent political situation in Beijing has been less stable than outward appearances indicate and that a hidden power struggle may have occurred during the past few weeks of unrest. State-run newspapers in China have recently suggested that the anti-Japan riots across the country are part of a plot to destabilize the Chinese leadership, and have taken pains to emphasize the conciliatory tone of Chinese President Hu Jintao during a recent meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on the sidelines of the Asia-Africa summit in Jakarta. The official Xinhua news agency reported that Hu made an unusually accommodating "apology to the past leaders of both countries" for the recent breakdown in relations when he met with Koizumi. Analysts say this sharp contrast with the harsh criticism of Japan by officials in mid-April suggests a schism exists between the upper levels of political leadership in Beijing, who are seeking warmer ties with Japan, and other elements in the Communist Party who wish to keep Tokyo at a distance. "Past mass demonstrations have always had a political power struggle element to them," says Ryosei Kokubun, director of the Institute of East Asian Studies at Keio University in Tokyo. He says that a similar crisis could be occurring within the Chinese government: on the one side, with Hu and and his ally Premier Wen Jibao, and on the other, less progressive elements within the party who encouraged the anti-Japan riots as a method of causing social unrest. "I don't think the current leadership of Hu and Wen is really that strong or secure," Kokubun says. He points to a reversal in position on Japan policy by Wen from March to April this year. Following the National People's Congress in March, Wen laid out three highly accommodative conditions for future relations with Japan. He said that future relations with Tokyo ought to be based on more political exchange at the top levels, joint strategic research on bilateral relations, and dealing with the differing interpretations of regional history. This approach, more amiable than in the past, may have angered anti-Japanese elements in the Communist Party who then set about disseminating a "very sophisticated level" of anti-Japanese propaganda on the Internet, well beyond the ability of average Chinese citizens, and mobilizing local party chapters to orchestrate the recent demonstrations, says Kokubun. "Many people observed that Premier Wen drastically changed his position in April once the protests began," the Japanese expert says. "This could be a reflection of the intra-party situation and an attempt to stop powerful anti-Japan groups within the party from trying to escalate the unrest." Xinhua news reports that Hu is now stressing the need for "both countries" to appropriately manage ties as they relate to Asian development and stability suggest that he and Wen are on the same wavelength with regard to expanding cooperation with Japan. Such an accommodative stance would also echo surprisingly generous sentiments expressed at a Japan-China meeting on the sidelines of an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Chile last November, when Hu said he considered both ordinary Japanese citizens as well as Japanese soldiers to have been victims in World War II. "One thing that can be said with certainty is that there must be a lot of debate going on [about Japan-related policy] inside the Chinese government," says Kokubun. The Chinese government has stepped up its response to the anti-Japan riots by arresting and bringing in for questioning dozens of people known to have participated in the protests. A number of dissidents attempting to organize another round of protests for May 4 have also been taken in by authorities, suggesting that Hu and Wen are now in the process of reasserting control over wayward elements in the Communist Party. Other moves add credence to the argument that the two Chinese leaders were actively trying to counter anti-Japan elements in the period leading up to the Jakarta meeting with Koizumi. The week before the meeting, there was a surge in activity on Chinese government websites, pointing out Japan's key role in helping build the Chinese economy since diplomatic relations were established in 1972. Beijing lost no time in publicizing an offer from Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura to set up a joint study on the interpretations of regional history - a proposal designed to address Chinese complaints over the sanitized treatment of Japanese actions in China during the war in some Japanese school textbooks - made despite politically powerful nationalist historian groups in Japan. Chinese officials also cited the interdependence of the nations' economies in directives against unauthorized demonstrations, saying that boycotting Japanese goods would only hurt Chinese workers. Economists estimate that about 10% of China's gross domestic product (GDP) is generated by Japanese business activity in the country. The recent protests have been described as being over everything from school textbooks that whitewash the Japanese Imperial Army's wartime rampage through Asia, to disputed islands in the South China Sea, to a squabble over gas drilling rights - all of which remain unresolved after Hu and Koizumi's meeting in Jakarta. While that top-level political exchange between Japanese and Chinese leaders has helped to slightly ease pressure over the short term, the reality is that most of the problems between the two powers will take time to work out, says Kokubun. But leadership in both governments - the bulk of the Koizumi cabinet in Japan and Hu and Wen in China - seem to know they have a lot to lose from keeping their distance. More people are beginning to realize that the idea of an East Asian community will make little progress unless Japan and China can get along. Media polls show a majority of Japanese citizens wants Tokyo and Beijing to talk key issues over more, despite conservative elements in Japan continuing to stoke Chinese ire with provocative statements and gestures. The strongly nationalist Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has railed against Chinese expansionist ambitions in response to the riots, while about 80 lawmakers made an ill-timed visit last week to Yasukuni Shrine, which commemorates a number of convicted war criminals along with Japan's World War II dead. There is a need for an integrated trade system, cooperation on resource development and a stable military relationship between the two nations, says Kazuhiko Ozawa, a professor of political science in Tokyo. The recent deterioration in bilateral relations, he says, shows that a more formal East Asian Community is needed to boost economic prosperity and regional peace in line with the model in Europe. Bennett Richardson is a Tokyo-based freelance journalist with a special interest in Japanese defense policy, politics and modern history. (Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing.) [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Give the gift of life to a sick child. Support St. Jude Children's Research Hospital's 'Thanks & Giving.' http://us.click.yahoo.com/lGEjbB/6WnJAA/E2hLAA/BRUplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> *************************************************************************** Berdikusi dg Santun & Elegan, dg Semangat Persahabatan. 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