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What North Korea could learn from Myanmar
By   John Kim  and   Daniel Freedman , Special to CNN
May 14, 2013 -- Updated 1330 GMT (2130 HKT) CNN.com 
Editor's note: John Kim is a board member of Choson Exchange, a nonprofit 
organization that trains North Koreans in areas such as 
entrepreneurship, economics and law. Daniel Freedman is the chief 
strategy officer of The Soufan Group, a strategic security consultancy company. 
(CNN) -- One question that policymakers might have 
overlooked in trying to come up with a long-term strategy toward North 
Korea is this: Could the Hermit Kingdom be the next Myanmar?
Myanmar, widely known by 
its former name of Burma, was once a pariah, but it has surprised almost 
everyone by becoming a Western investor's dream. While there are 
significant differences between Myanmar and North Korea, there are 
similarities that prompt the same Southeast Asian investors who 
correctly predicted Myanmar's turnaround to be optimistic about North 
Korea's future.
Until recently, Myanmar's only ally was China. For over a decade, the 
international community placed sanctions on Myanmar for its human rights 
violations, including the house arrest 
of the prominent activist Aung San Suu Kyi. But the junta drastically 
changed direction and endorsed a U.S. road map for reform -- a process 
that led to the U.S. lifting its export ban in September. Today, an 
emancipated Suu Kyi is working with the new government on reforms, and 
Westerners carrying suitcases of cash (sometimes literally) are looking 
to invest in the country.
There are many good reasons to turn to Myanmar.
The country has plenty of fertile 
land for agriculture, an abundance of precious stones and large reserves of 
oil, gas, coal and metals. Office rentals in some parts of Yangon, 
the former capital, exceed those in central Tokyo. Children who used to 
beg on the streets have been spotted selling copies of the investment 
law (in Burmese and English).
Myanmar's transformation 
is partly because of the leadership realizing that overreliance on China 
jeopardized the country's national security. The government prioritized 
diversifying its trading counterparts, and the detente began.
An over-dependence on China could become a big issue for North Korea, too.
China props up North Korea with aid and diplomatic support. According to the 
Council on Foreign Relations, the Middle Kingdom provides North Korea most of 
its energy needs and 
consumer goods and nearly half of its food supplies. But despite the 
support, the North Korean leadership often ignores Beijing's requests. 
North Korea conducted its third nuclear test in February despite China 
publicly asking it not to so. 
Orphaned and homeless in North Korea 
North Korea rattles saber again
Economic and political pressures do not work well on North Korea's leadership 
because its central ideology 
of Juche, translated as "self-reliance," produces a very negative 
reaction to outside pressure. This stems from an underdog psyche 
resulting from centuries of kowtowing to strong Chinese and Japanese 
neighbors. When the regime feels provoked, it often acts in the opposite 
direction to demonstrate its independence.
For China, being ignored by North 
Korea is an embarrassment. China's strategy is a combination of 
reprimand with ongoing economic engagement, hoping that its influence 
will change North Korea's mind. Meanwhile, North Korea's leadership is 
aware of its ever-increasing reliance on China, and the Juche ideology 
may catalyze diversification -- as in Myanmar.
And like Myanmar, North Korea would have an appeal to investors.
It, too, has large deposits of undeveloped mineral wealth, estimated by the 
South Korean government to be worth $6 trillion. The country also boasts a 
cheap labor force, with even higher literacy rates than Myanmar.
There is one big difference between the two countries -- the attitude of the 
people toward the West.
Even when the U.S. had sanctions on Myanmar, the people weren't taught to hate 
America. A steady stream of 
propaganda, however, has left North Koreans with a negative view of the 
United States. But the recent celebrated visits of Americans such as 
Google Chairman Eric Schmidt and former NBA Star Dennis Rodman show the 
appeal the U.S. still has -- and the soft power it can leverage.
While the State Department 
criticized Schmidt, saying the timing wasn't "particularly helpful," the timing 
was in fact telling. Even while going head-to-head with the U.S. on the world 
stage, a representative of U.S. capitalism was heralded 
inside North Korea.
Of course, soft power strategies 
are difficult to employ while tensions are high. Since the nuclear test 
in February, North Korea has threatened to strike at U.S. bases in Asia. It has 
closed the joint North-South Kaesong Industrial Zone and 
declared a state of war with South Korea. These are actions that cannot 
be ignored. But in deciding a response, it's important to understand how the 
leadership is thinking -- and what the future could hold.
In the meantime, it's the 
China-North Korea relationship that the savviest of Southeast Asia 
investors are watching most closely. Maybe North Korea could learn 
valuable lessons from Myanmar.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John Kim and 
Daniel Freedman.
© 2013 Cable News Network.   Turner Broadcasting System, Inc.  All Rights 
Reserved. 
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