Re: [ql-users] UK General Election
Norman Dunbar wrote: > > Hi Geoff, > > >> Colin Baskett's revue in QUANTA magazine ... > Mmm, isn't that one of those topless things then ? > :o) > > Norman. "One of those topless things" I thought they came in pairs(;-) all the best - Bill
Re: [ql-users] UK General Election
>PS Off topic, but I have just had a spam for a "Dow Jones Investment video". >Why did I read that as a "Dilwyn Jones Investment video"? Hah. No need to send for the video, just send me loads of used fivers...tenners... -- Dilwyn Jones [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.soft.net.uk/dj/index.html
Re: [ql-users] UK General Election
- Original Message - From: Norman Dunbar <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: RE: [ql-users] UK General Election > Hi Geoff, > > >> Colin Baskett's revue in QUANTA magazine ... > Mmm, isn't that one of those topless things then ? > :o) > Oops! Another homophone for the Guardian collection. I bow to your superior knowledge of strippers! Geoff Wicks [EMAIL PROTECTED] PS Off topic, but I have just had a spam for a "Dow Jones Investment video". Why did I read that as a "Dilwyn Jones Investment video"?
Re: [ql-users] UK General Election
In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Norman Dunbar <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes >Hi Geoff, > >>> Colin Baskett's revue in QUANTA magazine ... >Mmm, isn't that one of those topless things then ? >:o) Doh ! -- Malcolm Cadman
Re: [ql-users] UK General Election
In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Geoff Wicks <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes > >- Original Message - >From: Malcolm Cadman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > >Subject: Re: [ql-users] UK General Election > >> Without revealing too many secrets :-) how does it work ? >> >> Are you saying that the user is able to input new political data and get >> different forecasts out ? >> > >Yes, the best way to check is download and see. > >Basically the program is for psephologists who just love playing with >election results. < clip > Thanks for the information :-) As you say I now need to download the program and 'play' ... -- Malcolm Cadman
RE: [ql-users] UK General Election
Hi Geoff, >> Colin Baskett's revue in QUANTA magazine ... Mmm, isn't that one of those topless things then ? :o) Norman. Norman Dunbar EMail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Database/Unix administrator Phone: 0113 289 6265 Lynx Financial Systems Ltd. Fax:0113 201 7265 URL:http://www.LynxFinancialSystems.com
Re: [ql-users] UK General Election
On 11 Mar 2001, at 20:23, Geoff Wicks wrote: (snip) > In the 1992 election this program predicted the final result more accurately > than the BBC and ITV computers. Almost certainly a fluke, but nice to boast > about. Some of us, of course, have always thought that a QL beats a BBC every day... Wolfhgang
Re: [ql-users] UK General Election
- Original Message - From: Malcolm Cadman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: Re: [ql-users] UK General Election . > > Without revealing too many secrets :-) how does it work ? > > Are you saying that the user is able to input new political data and get > different forecasts out ? > Yes, the best way to check is download and see. Basically the program is for psephologists who just love playing with election results. Translating opinion polls into seats is as Peter Snow says "just a bit of fun". The main purpose is to analyse political trends. For example, after the last election I suggested that you should watch the Scottish Nationalists as they could make spectacular gains. (And that was before devolution.) Also interesting to watch the Liberal Democrats. Their vote has fallen, but number of seats has risen indicating that they are consolidating their position in some areas. You can identify them through the program. Hard to believe with present majorities, but if both the Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cymru strengthen their position Labout could become vulnerable over 5 - 10 years. And how near are/were the Conservatives to meltdown? These are statistical, not political, predictions. State Secrets involved? No. The non-graphical part of the program was originally written for the 1983 election on a 48K Spectrum, so everything had to be simple. (BTW the prediction then was almost no certain future for the SDP, or at least not on the aims they had set themselves.) 1997 Result Lab 46% Con 33% LDe 18% Nat 3% 2001 Poll Lab 47% Con 32% LDe 15% Nat 7% For each constituency Lab Vote 2001= (Lab vote 1997*47)/46 Con Vote 2001=(Con vote 1997*32)/33 etc. Can be faulted statistically and takes no account of regional trends,tactical voting, minor parties, Northern Ireland etc., but in practice holds up well against more sophisticated calculations. Colin Baskett's revue in QUANTA magazine gave an excellent assessment of the program's strengths and weaknesses. Geoff Wicks [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://members.tripod.co.uk/geoffwicks/election.htm
Re: [ql-users] UK General Election
In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Geoff Wicks <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes >Most political commentators have pencilled in 3rd May for the General >Election, foot and mouth permitting. I have set up a short web page for the >duration: > >http://members.tripod.co.uk/geoffwicks/election.htm > >You can download my election analysis program, which was reviewed in the >February Quanta Newsletter. > >This program contains the 1997 result for the main parties in England, >Scotland and Wales and has numerous national and regional analysis >possibilities including graphics. Also an interactive political map. It is >possible to translate almost any opinion poll into seats. > >In the 1992 election this program predicted the final result more accurately >than the BBC and ITV computers. Almost certainly a fluke, but nice to boast >about. Without revealing too many secrets :-) how does it work ? Are you saying that the user is able to input new political data and get different forecasts out ? -- Malcolm Cadman
