[R] Best prediction to use to use for basic problem?

2012-11-18 Thread Brian Feeny
I have a rather basic set of data.  It is simply a variable that can be 0, 1 or 
2 and its value over a series of time t0 - t9 like so:

y:  1   1   2   0   1   2   2   1   2   
1
x:  t0  t1  t2  t3  t4  t5  t6  t7  t8  
t9

I need to predict what the value of y will be at t10 through t13.

As you can see its rather basic.  I am rather new to solving these types of 
problems so I am looking for some
good straight forward things to try.

My research into this (google, wiki's, etc) leads me to believe that perhaps 
logistic regression would be good, since
I am predicting a categorical variable (0, 1, 2).  

I don't have much data for the formula to learn from, as I only have 10 time 
slots and I need to predict the next 4.

Is logistic regression a good candidate or should I be looking at perhaps 
something else?


Brian

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Re: [R] Best prediction to use to use for basic problem?

2012-11-18 Thread Bert Gunter
1. This is not really an R question. I suggest you post to a
statistical list like stats.stackexchange.com instead.

2. I also suggest you consult a local statistician. You have a time
series with a categorical response. That's not so simple as you think
(and folks on stackexchange may provide you greater insight why). What
you don't know _can_ hurt you. Ignorance is _not_ bliss. (etc. with
other similar clichés.)

Cheers,
Bert


On Sun, Nov 18, 2012 at 1:23 PM, Brian Feeny bfe...@mac.com wrote:
 I have a rather basic set of data.  It is simply a variable that can be 0, 1 
 or 2 and its value over a series of time t0 - t9 like so:

 y:  1   1   2   0   1   2   2   1   2 
   1
 x:  t0  t1  t2  t3  t4  t5  t6  t7  t8
   t9

 I need to predict what the value of y will be at t10 through t13.

 As you can see its rather basic.  I am rather new to solving these types of 
 problems so I am looking for some
 good straight forward things to try.

 My research into this (google, wiki's, etc) leads me to believe that perhaps 
 logistic regression would be good, since
 I am predicting a categorical variable (0, 1, 2).

 I don't have much data for the formula to learn from, as I only have 10 
 time slots and I need to predict the next 4.

 Is logistic regression a good candidate or should I be looking at perhaps 
 something else?


 Brian

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 R-help@r-project.org mailing list
 https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
 PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
 and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.



-- 

Bert Gunter
Genentech Nonclinical Biostatistics

Internal Contact Info:
Phone: 467-7374
Website:
http://pharmadevelopment.roche.com/index/pdb/pdb-functional-groups/pdb-biostatistics/pdb-ncb-home.htm

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and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.