Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
I once had a discussion with an economist who told me
in almost these exact words:
I don't care what the data say, the theory is so clear.
albyn
On 2013-04-26 9:30, William Dunlap wrote:
The prior for the incompetence/malice question is usually best set
pretty heavily in
favour of incompetence ...
The following comment on economic research is from a 2010 article in
the Atlantic
reviewing John Ioannidis' work.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and-medical-science/308269/
Medical research is not especially plagued with wrongness.
Other meta-research experts have confirmed that similar issues
distort research in all fields of science, from physics to
economics
(where the highly regarded economists J. Bradford DeLong and
Kevin Lang once showed how a remarkably consistent paucity of
strong evidence in published economics studies made it unlikely
that any of them were right).
Bill Dunlap
Spotfire, TIBCO Software
wdunlap tibco.com
-Original Message-
From: r-help-boun...@r-project.org
[mailto:r-help-boun...@r-project.org] On Behalf
Of S Ellison
Sent: Friday, April 26, 2013 9:08 AM
To: Thomas Adams; peter dalgaard
Cc: r-help
Subject: Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
One might wonder if the Excel error was indeed THAT or
perhaps a way to get the desired results, give the other
issues in their analysis?
The prior for the incompetence/malice question is usually best set
pretty heavily in
favour of incompetence ...
S
***
This email and any attachments are confidential. Any
use...{{dropped:8}}
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__
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Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
Pretty scary...
On Sat, Apr 27, 2013 at 12:28 PM, Albyn Jones jo...@reed.edu wrote:
I once had a discussion with an economist who told me
in almost these exact words:
I don't care what the data say, the theory is so clear.
albyn
On 2013-04-26 9:30, William Dunlap wrote:
The prior for the incompetence/malice question is usually best set pretty
heavily in
favour of incompetence ...
The following comment on economic research is from a 2010 article in
the Atlantic
reviewing John Ioannidis' work.
http://www.theatlantic.com/**magazine/print/2010/11/lies-**
damned-lies-and-medical-**science/308269/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and-medical-science/308269/
Medical research is not especially plagued with wrongness.
Other meta-research experts have confirmed that similar issues
distort research in all fields of science, from physics to economics
(where the highly regarded economists J. Bradford DeLong and
Kevin Lang once showed how a remarkably consistent paucity of
strong evidence in published economics studies made it unlikely
that any of them were right).
Bill Dunlap
Spotfire, TIBCO Software
wdunlap tibco.com
-Original Message-
From: r-help-boun...@r-project.org [mailto:r-help-bounces@r-**
project.org r-help-boun...@r-project.org] On Behalf
Of S Ellison
Sent: Friday, April 26, 2013 9:08 AM
To: Thomas Adams; peter dalgaard
Cc: r-help
Subject: Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
One might wonder if the Excel error was indeed THAT or
perhaps a way to get the desired results, give the other
issues in their analysis?
The prior for the incompetence/malice question is usually best set
pretty heavily in
favour of incompetence ...
S
***
This email and any attachments are confidential. Any use...{{dropped:8}}
__**
R-help@r-project.org mailing list
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/**listinfo/r-helphttps://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/**
posting-guide.html http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
__**
R-help@r-project.org mailing list
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/**listinfo/r-helphttps://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/**
posting-guide.html http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
__**
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PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/**
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and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
--
Thomas E Adams, III
718 McBurney Drive
Lebanon, OH 45036
1 (513) 739-9512 (cell)
[[alternative HTML version deleted]]
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Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
Maurice Allais (1988 Nobel Laureate in Economics) once said something to
the effect that economics can never be a science because it involves
self-interest. *
* It has been said that Euclid's theorem would have been bitterly
contested had its implications brought financial or political interests
into play. This is no exaggeration. One of the Roman emperors had the first
inventor of aluminum put to death because he considered the discovery
liable to injure certain vested interests. There is no other explanation
for the secular resistance to technical progress. In France the supply of
the first printed cotton garments cost the lives of thousands of people in
the 18th century, and in the 19th, the most active opponents of railway
development were the stagecoach drivers and owners. Recent history
confirms centuries of experience. (Maurice Allais: Economics as a
Science, Librairie Droz, Geneve 1968, page 19.)
Nuri
On Sat, 27 Apr 2013, Thomas Adams wrote:
Pretty scary...
On Sat, Apr 27, 2013 at 12:28 PM, Albyn Jones jo...@reed.edu wrote:
I once had a discussion with an economist who told me
in almost these exact words:
I don't care what the data say, the theory is so clear.
albyn
On 2013-04-26 9:30, William Dunlap wrote:
The prior for the incompetence/malice question is usually best set pretty
heavily in
favour of incompetence ...
The following comment on economic research is from a 2010 article in
the Atlantic
reviewing John Ioannidis' work.
http://www.theatlantic.com/**magazine/print/2010/11/lies-**
damned-lies-and-medical-**science/308269/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and-medical-science/308269/
Medical research is not especially plagued with wrongness.
Other meta-research experts have confirmed that similar issues
distort research in all fields of science, from physics to economics
(where the highly regarded economists J. Bradford DeLong and
Kevin Lang once showed how a remarkably consistent paucity of
strong evidence in published economics studies made it unlikely
that any of them were right).
Bill Dunlap
Spotfire, TIBCO Software
wdunlap tibco.com
-Original Message-
From: r-help-boun...@r-project.org [mailto:r-help-bounces@r-**
project.org r-help-boun...@r-project.org] On Behalf
Of S Ellison
Sent: Friday, April 26, 2013 9:08 AM
To: Thomas Adams; peter dalgaard
Cc: r-help
Subject: Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
One might wonder if the Excel error was indeed THAT or
perhaps a way to get the desired results, give the other
issues in their analysis?
The prior for the incompetence/malice question is usually best set
pretty heavily in
favour of incompetence ...
S
***
This email and any attachments are confidential. Any use...{{dropped:8}}
__**
R-help@r-project.org mailing list
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/**listinfo/r-helphttps://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/**
posting-guide.html http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
__**
R-help@r-project.org mailing list
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/**listinfo/r-helphttps://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/**
posting-guide.html http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
__**
R-help@r-project.org mailing list
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PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/**
posting-guide.html http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
--
Thomas E Adams, III
718 McBurney Drive
Lebanon, OH 45036
1 (513) 739-9512 (cell)
[[alternative HTML version deleted]]
__
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PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
__
R-help@r-project.org mailing list
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PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
One might wonder if the Excel error was indeed THAT or
perhaps a way to get the desired results, give the other
issues in their analysis?
The prior for the incompetence/malice question is usually best set pretty
heavily in favour of incompetence ...
S
***
This email and any attachments are confidential. Any use...{{dropped:8}}
__
R-help@r-project.org mailing list
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
The prior for the incompetence/malice question is usually best set pretty
heavily in
favour of incompetence ...
The following comment on economic research is from a 2010 article in the
Atlantic
reviewing John Ioannidis' work.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and-medical-science/308269/
Medical research is not especially plagued with wrongness.
Other meta-research experts have confirmed that similar issues
distort research in all fields of science, from physics to economics
(where the highly regarded economists J. Bradford DeLong and
Kevin Lang once showed how a remarkably consistent paucity of
strong evidence in published economics studies made it unlikely
that any of them were right).
Bill Dunlap
Spotfire, TIBCO Software
wdunlap tibco.com
-Original Message-
From: r-help-boun...@r-project.org [mailto:r-help-boun...@r-project.org] On
Behalf
Of S Ellison
Sent: Friday, April 26, 2013 9:08 AM
To: Thomas Adams; peter dalgaard
Cc: r-help
Subject: Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
One might wonder if the Excel error was indeed THAT or
perhaps a way to get the desired results, give the other
issues in their analysis?
The prior for the incompetence/malice question is usually best set pretty
heavily in
favour of incompetence ...
S
***
This email and any attachments are confidential. Any use...{{dropped:8}}
__
R-help@r-project.org mailing list
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
__
R-help@r-project.org mailing list
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
From a quick read, the Excel error prior for incompetence looks high but
some of the other issues hint that the prior for the overall findings was
remarkably in favor of malice.
John Kane
Kingston ON Canada
-Original Message-
From: s.elli...@lgcgroup.com
Sent: Fri, 26 Apr 2013 17:07:55 +0100
To: tea...@gmail.com, pda...@gmail.com
Subject: Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
One might wonder if the Excel error was indeed THAT or
perhaps a way to get the desired results, give the other
issues in their analysis?
The prior for the incompetence/malice question is usually best set pretty
heavily in favour of incompetence ...
S
***
This email and any attachments are confidential. Any =...{{dropped:15}}
__
R-help@r-project.org mailing list
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
From a quick read, the Excel error prior for incompetence
looks high but some of the other issues hint that the prior
for the overall findings was remarkably in favor of malice.
That's p(malice|evidence), not p(malice); surely that must be the posterior? ;-)
'tain't a great advert for economics either way, though, however much fun it
may be to apply Bayes theorem (badly, in my case) to analyse it.
Steve E
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PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
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Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
In case you haven't noticed, this is making the rounds in the media, including a handful of references to R. See e.g. http://news.slashdot.org/story/13/04/17/0215211/excel-error-contributes-to-problems-with-austerity-study I suppose we can't fortune()'ify anonymous quotes, but I kind of like this exchange: Bacon Bits: SPSS and R are very good at statistical analysis. Quantrix, MapleSoft, IBM Algorithmics, and other software is for financial data modeling. None of those is particularly appropriate for sharing data in a useful format with peers. Excel is. Hatta: R is extremely appropriate for sharing data in a useful format with peers. It's completely free for one. But more importantly, it saves every single step of your analysis. Send someone an Excel file, and who knows what they've done to the data. Send someone your R project directory and they can see exactly what you did. The problem with sending R files to your peers isn't that the R files aren't useful. It's that your peers aren't. On Apr 16, 2013, at 19:25 , Sarah Goslee wrote: Given that we occasionally run into problems with comparing Excel results to R results, and other spreadsheet-induced errors, I thought this might be of interest. http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems The punchline: If this error turns out to be an actual mistake Reinhart-Rogoff made, well, all I can hope is that future historians note that one of the core empirical points providing the intellectual foundation for the global move to austerity in the early 2010s was based on someone accidentally not updating a row formula in Excel. Ouch. (Note: I know nothing about the site, the author of the article, or the study in question. I was pointed to it by someone else. But if true: highly problematic.) Sarah -- Sarah Goslee http://www.functionaldiversity.org __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. -- Peter Dalgaard, Professor Center for Statistics, Copenhagen Business School Solbjerg Plads 3, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark Phone: (+45)38153501 Email: pd@cbs.dk Priv: pda...@gmail.com __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
One might wonder if the Excel error was indeed THAT or perhaps a way to get the desired results, give the other issues in their analysis? On Wed, Apr 24, 2013 at 11:58 AM, peter dalgaard pda...@gmail.com wrote: In case you haven't noticed, this is making the rounds in the media, including a handful of references to R. See e.g. http://news.slashdot.org/story/13/04/17/0215211/excel-error-contributes-to-problems-with-austerity-study I suppose we can't fortune()'ify anonymous quotes, but I kind of like this exchange: Bacon Bits: SPSS and R are very good at statistical analysis. Quantrix, MapleSoft, IBM Algorithmics, and other software is for financial data modeling. None of those is particularly appropriate for sharing data in a useful format with peers. Excel is. Hatta: R is extremely appropriate for sharing data in a useful format with peers. It's completely free for one. But more importantly, it saves every single step of your analysis. Send someone an Excel file, and who knows what they've done to the data. Send someone your R project directory and they can see exactly what you did. The problem with sending R files to your peers isn't that the R files aren't useful. It's that your peers aren't. On Apr 16, 2013, at 19:25 , Sarah Goslee wrote: Given that we occasionally run into problems with comparing Excel results to R results, and other spreadsheet-induced errors, I thought this might be of interest. http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems The punchline: If this error turns out to be an actual mistake Reinhart-Rogoff made, well, all I can hope is that future historians note that one of the core empirical points providing the intellectual foundation for the global move to austerity in the early 2010s was based on someone accidentally not updating a row formula in Excel. Ouch. (Note: I know nothing about the site, the author of the article, or the study in question. I was pointed to it by someone else. But if true: highly problematic.) Sarah -- Sarah Goslee http://www.functionaldiversity.org __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. -- Peter Dalgaard, Professor Center for Statistics, Copenhagen Business School Solbjerg Plads 3, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark Phone: (+45)38153501 Email: pd@cbs.dk Priv: pda...@gmail.com __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. [[alternative HTML version deleted]] __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
On Apr 24, 2013, at 20:01 , Thomas Adams wrote: One might wonder if the Excel error was indeed THAT or perhaps a way to get the desired results, give the other issues in their analysis? I think I'd reserve that suspicion for what they did with the NZ data: Growth for 1946-49: 7.7, 11.9, −9.9, and 10.8 --1951: -7.6 Those were the 5 years with Debt/GDP 90%. Obviously, the economy was going up and down like a yoyo. So they retain only the last value, miscode it as -7.9, and give that one year the same weight as decades of positive growth in other countries... On Wed, Apr 24, 2013 at 11:58 AM, peter dalgaard pda...@gmail.com wrote: In case you haven't noticed, this is making the rounds in the media, including a handful of references to R. See e.g. http://news.slashdot.org/story/13/04/17/0215211/excel-error-contributes-to-problems-with-austerity-study I suppose we can't fortune()'ify anonymous quotes, but I kind of like this exchange: Bacon Bits: SPSS and R are very good at statistical analysis. Quantrix, MapleSoft, IBM Algorithmics, and other software is for financial data modeling. None of those is particularly appropriate for sharing data in a useful format with peers. Excel is. Hatta: R is extremely appropriate for sharing data in a useful format with peers. It's completely free for one. But more importantly, it saves every single step of your analysis. Send someone an Excel file, and who knows what they've done to the data. Send someone your R project directory and they can see exactly what you did. The problem with sending R files to your peers isn't that the R files aren't useful. It's that your peers aren't. On Apr 16, 2013, at 19:25 , Sarah Goslee wrote: Given that we occasionally run into problems with comparing Excel results to R results, and other spreadsheet-induced errors, I thought this might be of interest. http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems The punchline: If this error turns out to be an actual mistake Reinhart-Rogoff made, well, all I can hope is that future historians note that one of the core empirical points providing the intellectual foundation for the global move to austerity in the early 2010s was based on someone accidentally not updating a row formula in Excel. Ouch. (Note: I know nothing about the site, the author of the article, or the study in question. I was pointed to it by someone else. But if true: highly problematic.) Sarah -- Sarah Goslee http://www.functionaldiversity.org __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. -- Peter Dalgaard, Professor Center for Statistics, Copenhagen Business School Solbjerg Plads 3, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark Phone: (+45)38153501 Email: pd@cbs.dk Priv: pda...@gmail.com __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. -- Peter Dalgaard, Professor, Center for Statistics, Copenhagen Business School Solbjerg Plads 3, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark Phone: (+45)38153501 Email: pd@cbs.dk Priv: pda...@gmail.com __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
On 4/17/2013 5:18 AM, Kevin Wright wrote: On Tue, Apr 16, 2013 at 4:33 PM, Jim Lemon j...@bitwrit.com.au wrote: On 04/17/2013 03:25 AM, Sarah Goslee wrote: The final point does relate to Excel and any application that hides what is going on to the casual observer. I will treasure this URL to give to anyone who chastises my moaning when I have to perform some task in Excel. It is not an error in the application (although these certainly exist) but a salutory caution to those who think that if a reasonable looking number appears in a cell, it must be the correct answer. I have found not one, but two such errors in the simple calculation of a birthday age from the date of birth and date of death. Jim So there (maybe) was a bug in Excel. Maybe hidden from the casual observer. And since Excel is not R, and we are R snobs, Excel is evil, right? But, wait. Is it easier for a casual observer to detect a flaw in the formula in Excel, or to find an incorrect array index in an R script? If the person knows R, or can fake it, I think it is easier. You have to hunt around an Excel spreadsheet to see what the formulae are, and the cell references usually have no inherent meaning. Further, one of the errors they made, not including all the data in a range, is very easy to make in excel but would be very hard to make in R. As others have noted, the problem was not a bug in Excel the program (unless you consider the design a bug) but a bug induced by the use of Excel. I doubt the exclusion of the range was deliberate, although the other errors seem to have been. However, it is likely that if the result had not been to their liking the original authors would have rechecked their work and discovered the problem. One of the errors, equal weighting of countries regardless of how many years they spent in a given state, is arguably a judgement call. Selective exclusion and inclusion of data is also a judgement call, but that strikes me as less defensible. Someone wrote that the overall finding of a negative relation between debt and growth is intact. First of all, the headline summary was that if debt/GDP 90% you fall off a cliff. That is not intact; it is false. The remaining relation is quite weak. And the substantive conclusion that high debt *causes* weaker growth is a complete reading into a correlational finding. It is pretty hard to sort out causal ordering, but some evidence suggests it is more the reverse: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/correlation-causality-and-casuistry/. See Krugman and Delongs blogs generally for gleeful commentary, or the original critique in http://www.peri.umass.edu/236/hash/31e2ff374b6377b2ddec04deaa6388b1/publication/566/. At any rate, a policy-relevant conclusion would need to be based on a much more careful analysis than was done, careful not only in the mechanics but in using methods that at least attempted to sort out the causal relations. The irony is that the substantively most trivial mistake is also the most clearly an error, while the more important issues are at least a little less clear-cut. Ross __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
Can you resend this link please? Thanks On Tue, Apr 16, 2013 at 10:33 PM, Jim Lemon j...@bitwrit.com.au wrote: On 04/17/2013 03:25 AM, Sarah Goslee wrote: ... Ouch. (Note: I know nothing about the site, the author of the article, or the study in question. I was pointed to it by someone else. But if true: highly problematic.) Sarah There seem to be three major problems described here, and only one is marginally related to Excel (and similar spreadsheets). Cherry picking data is all too common. Almost anyone who reviews papers for publication will have encountered it, and there are excellent books describing examples that have had great influence on public policy. Similarly, applying obscure and sometimes inappropriate statistical methods that produce the desired results when nothing else will appears with depressing frequency. The final point does relate to Excel and any application that hides what is going on to the casual observer. I will treasure this URL to give to anyone who chastises my moaning when I have to perform some task in Excel. It is not an error in the application (although these certainly exist) but a salutory caution to those who think that if a reasonable looking number appears in a cell, it must be the correct answer. I have found not one, but two such errors in the simple calculation of a birthday age from the date of birth and date of death. Jim __** R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/**listinfo/r-helphttps://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/** posting-guide.html http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. -- Shane [[alternative HTML version deleted]] __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
On Apr 17, 2013, at 10:16 , Shane Carey wrote: Can you resend this link please? Psst: https://stat.ethz.ch/pipermail/r-help/2013-April/351669.html -- Peter Dalgaard, Professor Center for Statistics, Copenhagen Business School Solbjerg Plads 3, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark Phone: (+45)38153501 Email: pd@cbs.dk Priv: pda...@gmail.com __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
On Tue, Apr 16, 2013 at 4:33 PM, Jim Lemon j...@bitwrit.com.au wrote: On 04/17/2013 03:25 AM, Sarah Goslee wrote: The final point does relate to Excel and any application that hides what is going on to the casual observer. I will treasure this URL to give to anyone who chastises my moaning when I have to perform some task in Excel. It is not an error in the application (although these certainly exist) but a salutory caution to those who think that if a reasonable looking number appears in a cell, it must be the correct answer. I have found not one, but two such errors in the simple calculation of a birthday age from the date of birth and date of death. Jim So there (maybe) was a bug in Excel. Maybe hidden from the casual observer. And since Excel is not R, and we are R snobs, Excel is evil, right? But, wait. Is it easier for a casual observer to detect a flaw in the formula in Excel, or to find an incorrect array index in an R script? All ye who want to cast stones upon the interface of Excel should ask yourselves if you have ever had a bug in R code. Kevin (no fan of Excel either) __** R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/**listinfo/r-helphttps://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/** posting-guide.html http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. -- Kevin Wright [[alternative HTML version deleted]] __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
On Tue, Apr 16, 2013 at 1:25 PM, Sarah Goslee sarah.gos...@gmail.com wrote: Given that we occasionally run into problems with comparing Excel results to R results, and other spreadsheet-induced errors, I thought this might be of interest. http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems The punchline: If this error turns out to be an actual mistake Reinhart-Rogoff made, well, all I can hope is that future historians note that one of the core empirical points providing the intellectual foundation for the global move to austerity in the early 2010s was based on someone accidentally not updating a row formula in Excel. Ouch. (Note: I know nothing about the site, the author of the article, or the study in question. I was pointed to it by someone else. But if true: highly problematic.) Herndon, Ash and Pollin (HAP), the authors of the critique, found that in the highest debt category the Excel error in Rienhart and Rogoff (RR) was -0.3 percent points compared to a total error (from that plus RR's other 2 mistakes) of -2.3 percentage points. See Figure 1 of HAP. Thus aside from the dubiousness of attributing the coding error in Excel to Excel itself it was not the main source of the discrepancy. Also even if one backs out all three errors that they found, the key conclusion that GDP growth is declining with debt still occurs (but to a lesser extent) as pointed out by RR in an initial responding email reported by Bloomberg News. The key takeaway here is really unrelated to Excel but rather is that until data and analyses are shared or made public so that the analysis can be reproduced one cannot have any real confidence in research results. RR http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639.pdf HAP http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_301-350/WP322.pdf Bloomberg News http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-16/reinhart-rogoff-paper-cited-by-ryan-faulted-for-serious-errors-.html -- Statistics Software Consulting GKX Group, GKX Associates Inc. tel: 1-877-GKX-GROUP email: ggrothendieck at gmail.com __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
[R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
Given that we occasionally run into problems with comparing Excel results to R results, and other spreadsheet-induced errors, I thought this might be of interest. http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems The punchline: If this error turns out to be an actual mistake Reinhart-Rogoff made, well, all I can hope is that future historians note that one of the core empirical points providing the intellectual foundation for the global move to austerity in the early 2010s was based on someone accidentally not updating a row formula in Excel. Ouch. (Note: I know nothing about the site, the author of the article, or the study in question. I was pointed to it by someone else. But if true: highly problematic.) Sarah -- Sarah Goslee http://www.functionaldiversity.org __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
When in doubt, assume the spreadsheet is wrong. I suggested this to someone have a problem with R vs Excel results a while ago. When I checked back with him -- there was a spreadsheet error. I think a t-shirt with the motto Friends don't let friends use spreadsheets[1] sounds like a good idea. Unfortunately I am not artistic enough to do a design. 1. Slight paraphrase of J. D Cryer's statement http://homepage.cs.uiowa.edu/~jcryer/JSMTalk2001.pdf John Kane Kingston ON Canada -Original Message- From: sarah.gos...@gmail.com Sent: Tue, 16 Apr 2013 13:25:57 -0400 To: r-help@r-project.org Subject: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic) Given that we occasionally run into problems with comparing Excel results to R results, and other spreadsheet-induced errors, I thought this might be of interest. http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems The punchline: If this error turns out to be an actual mistake Reinhart-Rogoff made, well, all I can hope is that future historians note that one of the core empirical points providing the intellectual foundation for the global move to austerity in the early 2010s was based on someone accidentally not updating a row formula in Excel. Ouch. (Note: I know nothing about the site, the author of the article, or the study in question. I was pointed to it by someone else. But if true: highly problematic.) Sarah -- Sarah Goslee http://www.functionaldiversity.org __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. FREE ONLINE PHOTOSHARING - Share your photos online with your friends and family! Visit http://www.inbox.com/photosharing to find out more! __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
What a terrific article. Thanks for sharing! The more we critically examine how research is actually done the more frightened we become. Frank -- Frank E Harrell Jr Professor and Chairman School of Medicine Department of Biostatistics Vanderbilt University __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
I tend to live in fear that some spreadsheet calculating a drug dose for me will use my telephone number rather than my weight. John Kane Kingston ON Canada -Original Message- From: f.harr...@vanderbilt.edu Sent: Tue, 16 Apr 2013 13:20:46 -0500 To: r-h...@stat.math.ethz.ch Subject: Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic) What a terrific article. Thanks for sharing! The more we critically examine how research is actually done the more frightened we become. Frank -- Frank E Harrell Jr Professor and Chairman School of Medicine Department of Biostatistics Vanderbilt University __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. FREE 3D MARINE AQUARIUM SCREENSAVER - Watch dolphins, sharks orcas on your desktop! __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
Re: [R] the joy of spreadsheets (off-topic)
On 04/17/2013 03:25 AM, Sarah Goslee wrote: ... Ouch. (Note: I know nothing about the site, the author of the article, or the study in question. I was pointed to it by someone else. But if true: highly problematic.) Sarah There seem to be three major problems described here, and only one is marginally related to Excel (and similar spreadsheets). Cherry picking data is all too common. Almost anyone who reviews papers for publication will have encountered it, and there are excellent books describing examples that have had great influence on public policy. Similarly, applying obscure and sometimes inappropriate statistical methods that produce the desired results when nothing else will appears with depressing frequency. The final point does relate to Excel and any application that hides what is going on to the casual observer. I will treasure this URL to give to anyone who chastises my moaning when I have to perform some task in Excel. It is not an error in the application (although these certainly exist) but a salutory caution to those who think that if a reasonable looking number appears in a cell, it must be the correct answer. I have found not one, but two such errors in the simple calculation of a birthday age from the date of birth and date of death. Jim __ R-help@r-project.org mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
