[silk] Kragen's essay on Egypt

2011-01-28 Thread Udhay Shankar N
list.lurker Kragen wrote this piece which is all over my twitter
timeline, and I thought I'd mirror it on silk as well, as it's a good
overview of the events in Egypt so far. Additional thoughts, folks?

Udhay

http://canonical.org/~kragen/egypt-massacre-sotu.html

Why Egypt’s popular rebellion is the greatest historical event in a
decade, and
   how Barack Obama missed the boat.

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   (Above: No army is more powerful than an idea whose time has come.)

   I’m writing this on January 28th, 2011, at 11:53 AM Cairo time,
   although I’m an ocean away from Cairo. But, as someone wrote the other
   day on Twitter, yesterday, we were all Tunisian; today, we are all
   Egyptian, and tomorrow, we will all be free. So today I am writing this
   on Cairo time.

   Three days ago, I read Barack Obama’s [2]State of the Union address. He
   delivered it on the same day that the [3]#Jan25 protests began in
   Egypt. I was dismayed that he didn’t mention the protests at all,
   because they’re more important than almost everything he did mention.
   This essay is an attempt to explain why they are so important, why
   Obama ignored them, and what the possible results of that choice could
   be.

  What Egypt is like

   [4][View_from_Cairo_Tower_31march2007_small.jpg]

   For readers who don’t know much about Egypt, like most Americans,
   here’s my attempt to sum up a country of 80 million people in three
   minutes.

   Egypt is not a republic, any more than the People’s Republic of China
   is. Egypt is a brutal dictatorship, governed by the same dictator since
   1981, 29 of those years under state-of-emergency regulations. That
   dictator, Hosni Mubarak, was the vice-president of the previous
   dictator, Anwar Sadat, who in turn was the vice-president of the
   dictator before him, Gamal Abdel Nasser, who had held absolute power
   since 1956. Egypt has been under one-party rule since 1952, and
   although the ruling party has changed its name several times, it has
   never yielded its power.

   Egypt has gradually declined in influence and quality of life
   throughout Mubarak’s reign.

   Some opposition parties are now formally allowed. They currently hold
   3% of the Egyptian parliament. All influential opposition parties are
   banned, and the press is heavily censored. Mohamed ElBaradei, an
   Egyptian who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his work fighting nuclear
   proliferation, moved to Vienna so that he can find reporters willing to
   talk to him.

   Egypt is desperately poor. The majority of the country depends on the
   bread dole for survival.

   Egypt is one of the countries where the US would ship prisoners to have
   them beaten, electrocuted, and raped by the Egyptian police for years,
   as a means of interrogation. ([5]Abu Omar and [6]Ahmed Osman Saleh are
   two of the best-known cases.) Indeed, its reputation for torture was so
   well established that it was the first US ally selected for this
   “[7]extraordinary rendition” program.

   The Egyptian police are famous for their lack of controls. Last year,
   [8]Khaled Said was sitting in an internet café; a couple of policemen
   came in and demanded to see everyone’s ID, which is against Egyptian
   law. He refused, so they dragged him outside, beat him to death, and
   dumped his body in the street.

   It’s also one of the top recipients of US aid in the world, much of
   which is earmarked for the security forces — the same security forces
   who are currently beating journalists bloody and shooting protestors
   with US-made tear gas, birdshot, and now bullets.

   Much of Egypt’s military, the tenth largest in the world and the
   largest in Africa, is actually [9]paid for by the US. Egypt produces
   US-designed armaments such as the M1 Abrams tank under license. Without
   the political and financial support of the US, it is generally believed
   in Egypt that the current dictatorship would have fallen decades ago.

   As [10]Shahi Hamid said, “If the army ever decides to shoot into a
   crowd of unarmed protestors, it will be shooting with hardware provided
   by the United States.”

   However, as Steven A. Cook of CFR says, all those soldiers “are not
   there to project power, but to protect the regime.” He calls the
   Egyptian military “the ultimate instrument of political control.” In
   other words, all those weapons are bought to be used against Egyptians,
   not to protect Egypt.

   This is exactly the sort of situation that fosters non-state terrorism:
   a disempowered citizenry, kept in check by only the military might of
   an unaccountable and corrupt dictator backed by a faraway country,
   watching their future being destroyed one year at a time — all so that
   that faraway country can have a reliable friend to support political
   goals the nation opposes. This country profile fits both Saudi Arabia
   and Egypt, as it has for decades. And, 

Re: [silk] Kragen's essay on Egypt

2011-01-28 Thread Dave Kumar
On Fri, Jan 28, 2011 at 11:36 PM, Udhay Shankar N ud...@pobox.com wrote:

 list.lurker Kragen wrote this piece which is all over my twitter
 timeline, and I thought I'd mirror it on silk as well, as it's a good
 overview of the events in Egypt so far. Additional thoughts, folks?

 Udhay

 http://canonical.org/~kragen/egypt-massacre-sotu.htmlhttp://canonical.org/%7Ekragen/egypt-massacre-sotu.html


I thought that was an excellent overview of the events in Egypt, but I
disagree as to the take on the Obama administration's approach. The Obama
administration's approach on issues -- both domestic and foreign -- is to
favor results over the desire to appear righteous and/or take credit. I
think the administration's instinct is that any obvious public support for
the demonstrators on its part will be viewed as foreign meddling, and runs
the risk of turning the discussion into whether what is happening in Egypt
is being instigated from abroad rather than something that is happening
organically -- and I think their instinct is correct. (The administration
took a similar approach with the Green movement in Iran.) This is not to say
that every statement coming from the administration is necessarily the
smartest -- Biden's statement in particular seemed to me to be off -- but I
think that generally speaking, they are playing the situation correctly.
Notice also their increasing criticism of the Mubarak regime in the last 24
hours or so, focusing on the violence and the shutting off of Internet
access rather than on an ultimate preferred outcome.

I would add that the point about the US's historical support for
corrupt/dictatorial regimes in Egypt and elsewhere is well taken, and I
agree with it ... but it far predates the Obama administration, and anyone
who assumes that this administration could simply change that policy when it
came to power fails to appreciate the realities of US politics.

That's my $0.02.